Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the winning probabilities of the equity and convertible bond markets were relatively insufficient, with various broad-based and convertible bond indices showing different trends. Short-term performance may be pressured by tariff disturbances. Since May, the equity market's rise has been characterized by a rebound from oversold conditions. Investors entered the market actively based on odds considerations, and with institutional support, the market continued to rise. However, after the Shanghai Composite Index reached a high on May 14, the logic of the rebound has changed, and market divergence has increased. Considering the uncertainty of future tariff policies, style rotation may accelerate. The dumbbell allocation strategy may continue to be advantageous [1][2][7] - In the short term, the winning probabilities of the equity and convertible bond markets are relatively insufficient and may be pressured by tariff disturbances. The risk of a significant short-term decline is limited, and the market will likely remain volatile. The dividend style benefits from policy support, and the technology growth style has re-entered the institutional view after a valuation correction [2][7] - It is recommended that investors focus on high-grade, fundamentally stable convertible bonds. The market style will still tend to be stable. Strategies should balance defense and theme flexibility. Suggested areas to focus on include the dividend, technology growth, and large consumption sectors [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1 Market Observation - From May 26 to May 30, various broad-based and convertible bond indices showed different trends, with some convertible bond indices leading the gains. Balanced and equity-based valuations were compressed [7] - The market was volatile this week, with insufficient winning probabilities for major indices and significant sector differentiation. Environmental protection, medicine, and military industries led the gains. The small-cap style was dominant. The bond market had low volatility and weak trading sentiment due to the lack of a macro trading theme and limited odds space [2][7] - The equity market may be pressured by tariffs in the short term. The risk of a significant decline is limited, and the market will remain volatile. After the high on May 14, market divergence increased, and trading volume decreased. Style rotation may accelerate, with the dividend style benefiting from policies and the technology growth style re-entering institutional consideration after a valuation correction [2][7] - In the short term, investors are advised to focus on high-grade, fundamentally stable convertible bonds. Strategies should balance defense and theme flexibility. Suggested areas to focus on include the dividend, technology growth, and large consumption sectors [8] 2 Convertible Bond Market Tracking 2.1 Convertible Bond Market Trends - Not provided in the given content 2.2 Individual Convertible Bonds - Not provided in the given content 2.3 Convertible Bond Valuations - Not provided in the given content 2.4 Convertible Bond Prices - Not provided in the given content

日本央行：市场流动性相应收紧，尤其是在超长期债券市场，供需失衡情况显著。 ...

#时事热点我来评# 彻底杀疯了，日本债市崩盘，欧盟喜提关税，特朗普又折腾了一把大的，在国内碰了一鼻子灰，只能再次刀口向外，这背后的事情可不简单。 特朗普急切要求美联储降息，一旦降息，可谓是一箭双雕，美国经济可以打入一针强心剂，对美债来说，也能有效降低利率，大幅节省美国政府的财政开 支，这可是又赚人心又有政绩的大好事，办好了对明年的中期选举都有正面的影响。可惜美联储是一块茅坑里的大石头，又臭又硬，搬都搬不动。 特朗普都不用发号施令，直接更新一个推特对欧盟加税50%，欧洲股市直线跳水。欧盟也很冤啊，我可不是一个国家啊，24个成员国一起开会，想要达成一 致可不是件容易的事，怎么样都会比别人慢啊。更离谱的是，欧盟虽然对美国在货物贸易上顺差了1000亿，可在服务贸易上，美国已经把钱赚回去了，美国 也并不吃亏啊，特朗普拿欧洲撒气，全是情绪，没有一点逻辑，你让欧盟怎么办呢？ 整完欧盟，特朗普又把目光转向了日本。日本一肚子坏水，而且关税谈判的态度最强硬，不给你点颜色瞧瞧，还真不把美国当大哥了。 结果，日本国债市场上演了一场史诗级"大崩盘"。新发行的20年期日本国债，拍卖结果惨不忍睹，投标倍数跌至2.5倍，达到2012年以来最 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the emergence of various acronyms in financial markets that reflect the volatility and uncertainty since Donald Trump's return to the presidency, with strategies linked to his economic and trade policies [1][2][3] - Acronyms like MAGA (Make America Great Again) and YOLO (You Only Live Once) were popular during the initial phase of Trump's presidency, driving significant market movements, but have since lost favor due to concerns over economic policies and market stability [2][3] - The TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) strategy has gained traction among traders, betting on Trump's tendency to backtrack on aggressive policies, leading to market rebounds after initial declines [3][4] Group 2 - MEGA (Make Europe Great Again) has resurfaced as European markets outperform U.S. markets, driven by increased interest in European equities and military spending in response to U.S. policies [5][6] - The MAGA variant, "Make America Go Away," reflects a growing sentiment among foreign investors to avoid U.S. markets due to concerns over inflation and the erosion of confidence in U.S. assets [6][7] - FAFO (Fuck Around and Find Out) describes the chaotic market conditions resulting from Trump's policy decisions, highlighting the risks of frequent trading in response to market volatility [7]

Primary Market - A total of 18 offshore bonds were issued by Chinese companies this week, including 12 USD bonds and 6 HKD bonds, with issuance sizes of $2.2774 billion and HKD 83.878 billion respectively. No offshore RMB bonds were issued this week [2] - The largest single issuance in the HKD bond market was HKD 1 billion by Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation Limited, with the highest coupon rate of 3.3% issued by Henderson Land Development Company Limited [2] - In the USD bond market, the largest single issuance was $600 million by Shanghai Construction Group Co., Ltd., with the highest coupon rate of 7% issued by Chengdu Ronghe Jiatai Modern Agriculture Development Co., Ltd. and Chengdu Tianfu Dagan Group Co., Ltd. [2] Secondary Market Overview - The yield on Chinese USD bonds has mostly increased over the past two weeks. As of May 30, the Markit iBoxx Chinese USD Bond Composite Index rose by 0.42% to 242.22, while the investment-grade USD bond index increased by 0.49% to 234.97. The high-yield USD bond index decreased by 0.06% to 237.09 [3] - The real estate USD bond index fell by 0.33% to 180.27, while the city investment bond index rose by 0.11% to 148.72, and the financial bond index increased by 0.12% to 282.57 [3] Price Movements - The largest weekly price increase in offshore Chinese bonds was seen in the USD bond issued by Zhengrong Real Estate Group Co., Ltd. (ZHPRHK 9.15% 5/6/23), which rose by 148.37% to 0.75 [4] - The largest weekly price decrease was also in a USD bond issued by Zhengrong Real Estate Group Co., Ltd. (ZHPRHK 8.7% 8/3/22), which fell by 63.33% to 0.41 [6] Credit Rating Adjustments - On May 27, the credit rating of Jinneng Technology Co., Ltd. was downgraded to "AA-" with a stable outlook by United Ratings [9] - On May 27, Suqian Canal Port Development Group Co., Ltd. had its "BBB-" international long-term issuer rating withdrawn for commercial reasons by United International [9] - On May 29, the credit rating of Taikang Insurance Group Co., Ltd. was confirmed at "A-" with a stable outlook by Fitch, but subsequently withdrawn for commercial reasons [9] Default and Extension - Pengbo Telecom Media announced that the principal repayment date for the "18 Pengbo Bond" has been adjusted from May 25, 2025, to August 25, 2025, with a full principal repayment scheduled for that date [10] Domestic News - In April 2025, the Ministry of Finance reported that a total of CNY 693.3 billion in local government bonds were issued, including CNY 2.534 billion in new bonds [12] - The China Securities Investment Fund Association reported that 914.59 billion in asset-backed special plans were newly filed in April, with the top three asset types being financing lease receivables, micro-loan receivables, and accounts receivable [13] Offshore Debt Alerts - Zhengrong Real Estate announced that "H20 Zhengrong 3" will resume trading on June 3, 2025 [17] - CIFI Group announced that seven company bonds will be suspended from trading starting June 3, 2025, to ensure fair information disclosure and protect bond investors [19] - Vanke's subsidiary applied for a loan of up to HKD 6.872 billion from an overseas bank, with a term of up to two years [20] - Hailong Holdings received a winding-up petition involving $379.135 million in unpaid notes [21]

周五（5月30日）欧市尾盘，德国10年期国债收益率下跌0.8个基点，报2.5%，5月份累计上涨5.6个基 点，5月14日曾涨至2.701%。 两年期德债收益率涨0.7个基点，报1.776%，5月份累涨9.0个基点，5月14日曾达到1.952%；30年期德债 收益率累涨9.8个基点，报2.980%。 2/10年期德债收益率利差跌1.396个基点，报+72.218个基点，5月份累跌3.259个基点。 法国10年期国债收益率累跌0.7个基点，报3.160%，整体呈现出A形冲高回落，5月14日达到3.381%。 希腊10年期国债收益率累跌4.4个基点，报3.253%。 意大利10年期国债收益率累跌8.5个基点，报3.480%，5月14日曾达到3.714%。 西班牙10年期国债收益率累跌2.1个基点，报3.092%。 ...

0:00 上一期，我们聊了利率债ETF，它因为"稳"出圈，是不少投资者心头好的低风险选项。 但如果你愿意承担一点点风险，来博取更高一点的回报，那今天要介绍的信用债ETF，也许就能让你眼 前一亮！ 信用债ETF是什么？ 通俗讲，信用债ETF就是跟踪一篮子"信用债"的ETF产品。也就是说，你买了一只信用债ETF，相当于 持有了多种信用债。 目前，它的底层信用债资产主要包括：短融、公司债、企业债和城投债： 该指数的样本选取的是银行间市场剩余期限1个月以上的短期融资券，流动性好，风险相对较低。 （截止日期：4月3日；来源：Wind金融终端） 底层资产是城投债的产品有1只，规模超150亿元，跟踪上证城投债指数。 一句话总结，信用债不像国债那样有"国家兜底"，它们靠的是发行方自身的信用来融资。 信用等级越高，风险越低，但收益通常也会比利率债更有吸引力一些。 目前全市场共有11只信用债ETF，总规模超过821亿元，拆开来看：底层资产是短融的产品有1只，规模 超254亿元，跟踪中证短融指数。 （截止日期：4月2日；来源：Wind金融终端） （截止日期：4月2日；来源：Wind金融终端） 该指数的样本选取的是在上海证券交易所上 ...

Core Viewpoint - Global stock markets are experiencing significant outflows, while gold and bonds are emerging as winners amid a weak dollar environment [1][9]. Group 1: Market Trends - Global stock funds faced the largest weekly net outflow since 2025, totaling $9.5 billion, with ETFs losing $3.2 billion and actively managed funds losing $6.4 billion [2][12]. - Bond assets attracted $19.3 billion this week, marking five consecutive weeks of inflows, with emerging market debt seeing $2.8 billion, the highest since January 2023 [2][5]. - Gold funds received $1.8 billion in inflows this week, with an annualized inflow reaching a record $75 billion, surpassing other asset classes [5][23]. Group 2: Currency and Asset Rotation - The weak dollar is driving asset rotation, benefiting cryptocurrencies, gold, emerging market bonds, and real estate investment trusts, which saw a net inflow of $300 million, the largest since October of last year [9][11]. - The dollar is entering a bear market, influenced by tariff policies and a shift in Federal Reserve independence, which supports a bullish outlook for gold and emerging markets [11][23]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The "BIG" strategy (Bonds, International Stocks, Gold) is recommended for investors, as it aligns with the current market dynamics [23]. - The S&P 500 defensive sector's share has dropped to 18%, the lowest since 2000, indicating a high-risk appetite in the market [15][18]. - The "Seven Giants" stocks are trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 42, suggesting a potential for further gains despite being below historical bubble averages [18][23].

Core Viewpoint - Japan's bond market is facing a significant crisis, with concerns escalating over its debt situation, which is reportedly more severe than Greece's, while India is projected to surpass Japan in GDP by 2026 [1][5][15]. Group 1: Japan's Debt Crisis - Japan's government is primarily responsible for the current debt crisis, stemming from "Abenomics," which involved negative interest rates and extensive bond purchases by the Bank of Japan [5][15]. - The Bank of Japan holds 52% of the market share in Japanese government bonds, and its recent shift towards quantitative tightening has led to soaring bond yields [5][9]. - Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 260%, the highest among major economies, indicating significant room for bond yield increases compared to other countries [9][15]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - The recent rise in Japan's 10-year bond yield to approximately 1.55% reflects a 44 basis point increase since early April, diverging from the Bank of Japan's policy rate [8][12]. - Concerns are growing regarding the potential for increased government borrowing due to upcoming elections, which could exacerbate the bond market's instability [8][12]. - The crisis in Japan's bond market may have broader implications for global financial stability, potentially triggering a financial crisis that could impact China, although China's risk exposure is mitigated by its strong foreign exchange controls [15][16]. Group 3: Global Context and Comparisons - The U.S. federal government's debt is projected to reach $36.2 trillion by the end of 2024, with foreign investors holding over $9 trillion, highlighting a global trend of rising debt levels [6][15]. - Germany, with a debt-to-GDP ratio below 100%, may emerge as a relative winner in the current debt crisis landscape, contrasting sharply with Japan's situation [13][15]. - The interconnectedness of global financial markets means that Japan's debt crisis could have ripple effects, influencing investor sentiment and market stability worldwide [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic economic recovery shows marginal weakness but retains resilience, and with the short - term improvement of the trade situation in May and the implementation of growth - stabilizing policies, the fundamentals are expected to improve marginally [95]. - Overseas economies show signs of recession, with the US economy facing challenges such as a decline in GDP and a weakening labor market, and inflation is expected to rise gradually [96]. - The bond market is expected to continue its oscillatory consolidation pattern, with low probability of significant fluctuations in the short term. Attention should be paid to subsequent high - frequency economic data and changes in the capital market. Also, be wary of the risk of long - end bond price corrections [96]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury futures' main contracts (TL2509, T2509, TF2509, TS2509) fell by 0.16%, 0.11%, 0.03%, and 0.01% respectively. The trading volumes were 431,000, 373,000, 307,000, and 197,000 contracts respectively. The settlement prices were 41.119, 108.72, 106.01, and 102.40 respectively [13][14]. - **Treasury Futures Market Review**: The trading volumes of TS and T main contracts decreased, while those of TF and TL main contracts increased. The open interest of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts all increased [32]. 2. News Review and Analysis - **Key News Review**: On May 26, the General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the "Opinions on Improving the Modern Enterprise System with Chinese Characteristics". Moody's maintained China's sovereign credit rating at "A1" with a negative outlook. On May 27, it was announced that in April, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China increased by 3% year - on - year. From May 28 - 29, multiple important events occurred, including the release of the Fed's meeting minutes and the issuance of the "Opinions on Improving the Market - based Allocation System of Resource and Environmental Elements" [35][36]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Treasury Yield Spreads**: The spreads between 10 - year and 5 - year, and 10 - year and 1 - year Treasury yields both narrowed slightly [45]. - **Main Contract Spreads**: The spread between 2 - year and 5 - year main contracts oscillated, and the spread between 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts narrowed slightly [49]. - **Treasury Futures Near - and Far - Month Spreads**: The spreads of 10 - year, 30 - year, 2 - year, and 5 - year contracts all weakened slightly [55][61]. - **Treasury Futures Main Contract Open Interest Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 open interests in the T main contract increased slightly [65]. - **Interest Rate Changes** - **Shibor and Treasury Yields**: Overnight Shibor rates declined, while 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates rose. Treasury bond yields weakened, with 1 - 7Y yields rising by 2 - 3bp, and 10Y and 30Y yields rising by about 2bp to 1.68% and 1.92% respectively [69]. - **China - US Treasury Yield Spreads**: The spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year China - US Treasury yields both narrowed slightly [73]. - **Central Bank Open - Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 1,602.6 billion yuan in reverse repurchases, with 946 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 656.6 billion yuan. The weighted average DR007 rate rebounded to around 1.66% [76]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bonds worth 105.7177 billion yuan were issued, with a total repayment of 87.1891 billion yuan, and a net financing of 18.5286 billion yuan [79]. - **Market Sentiment** - **Exchange Rates**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1848, up 71 basis points this week. The spread between offshore and onshore RMB weakened [85]. - **US Treasury Yields and VIX Index**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield and the VIX index both declined slightly [88]. - **A - Share Risk Premium**: The 10 - year Treasury yield rose slightly, and the A - share risk premium declined slightly [92]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Market Outlook**: The domestic economy continues to recover moderately, while overseas economies show signs of recession. The bond market is expected to continue its oscillatory consolidation pattern, and attention should be paid to subsequent high - frequency economic data and changes in the capital market. Be wary of the risk of long - end bond price corrections [95][96]. - **Strategy**: Given the current situation, the possibility of further interest rate cuts is low. The bond market is driven by the capital and fundamental factors, and there may be no high - quality short - term trading opportunities. One should be cautious about the risk of long - end bond price corrections [96].