1. 公开市场操作 央行公告称，8月1日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1260亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量1260亿元，中标量1260亿元。Wind数据显 示，当日7893亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净回笼6633亿元。当周净投放69亿元。 8月4日至8日一周，央行公开市场将有16632亿元逆回购到期，其中周一至周五分别到期4958亿元、4492亿元、3090亿元、2832亿元、1260亿元。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 跨月后尽管央行公开市场大额净回笼，银行间市场周五资金面依旧充裕。存款类机构隔夜回购加权利率（DR001）下行超8个bp，重回1.31%附近，7天期 则下滑13个bp。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为 4.32% 。 （IMM） // 债市综述 // 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在1.635%位置，较上日微降。 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率涨跌不一。 （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） | （*数据来源：Wind-成交统计BMW） | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs have issued an opinion to enhance financial services for rural reform and promote comprehensive rural revitalization, focusing on increasing financial resource input in key areas of rural revitalization [1] Group 1: Financial Services for Rural Revitalization - The banking industry is actively responding to policy guidance by innovating financial products and optimizing service models to support the upgrading of rural specialty products and high-quality development of county industries [1] - Financial institutions are encouraged to develop differentiated credit policies tailored to the financing needs of local specialty agricultural products, thereby addressing traditional agricultural financing challenges [2][3] Group 2: Innovative Financing Models - Banks are exploring new financing models such as agricultural product warehouse receipt pledge loans and biological asset pledges to address the lack of traditional collateral in agriculture [3] - The banking sector is implementing a "financial chain leader" system to provide targeted financing services based on the characteristics of industrial chains, promoting efficiency in county-level economic development [4] Group 3: Support for New Industries and Business Models - The banking industry is expanding its service offerings to support new industries and business models, such as leisure agriculture and the homestay economy, with specialized products like the "homestay loan" offering up to 3 million yuan for a term of five years [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market showed a situation of "all negative factors priced in" this week. After the high - level oscillation in the first half of the week, influenced by factors such as the extension of Sino - US tariff exemptions, lack of unexpected policies in the Politburo meeting in July, significant corrections in the equity market and commodity prices, and poor July manufacturing PMI data, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield returned to around 1.7%. The news of resuming the collection of VAT on the interest income of some bonds on Friday afternoon pushed the 10 - year Treasury bond yield below 1.7% [2][6]. - The tax system for bond investment in China varies according to different bond types, investors, and income sources. The new tax policy exempts the old bonds of Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds from VAT on interest income, while new bonds require banks and other institutional investors to pay 6.34% VAT and asset management products to pay 3.26% VAT [2][6]. - After the tax rate adjustment, institutions may prefer to hold old bonds. The new bond issuance may need to provide sufficient interest compensation. The actual yield of old bonds may be between 1.65% - 1.7%, and the new - old bond spread may be between 5 - 10BP [2][13]. - The central bank may support the policy adjustment to increase the nominal level of domestic bond interest rates and reduce the investment and trading willingness of financial institutions. The finance department may aim to expand the tax source. The policy may increase the annual VAT revenue by up to 140 billion, and the annual fiscal interest payment may increase by about 50 billion [2][3]. - In the short term, the bond market may maintain a volatile pattern. After the new tax policy, there may be a short - term trading opportunity for old bonds, but the market may still face disturbances, and the volatile pattern is difficult to break [2][23]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 China's Bond Investment Tax System Varies by Bond Type, Investor, and Income Source - **VAT**: Interest income from Treasury bonds, local government bonds, financial bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit is exempt from VAT. For other bond types, the actual VAT rate for general legal entities is 6.34%, and for asset management products, it is 3.26%. Capital gains from most bonds are subject to VAT, but public funds are exempt. The actual VAT rate takes into account price - exclusive factors and additional taxes [2][6][7]. - **Income Tax**: Financial institutions' interest income from investing in Treasury bonds and local government bonds is exempt from income tax. Interest income from railway bonds is taxed at a reduced rate of 12.5%. Other bond interest income and capital gains are taxed at 25%. Contractual asset management products are not income tax payers, and the tax is borne by product holders. Personal investment in asset management products is currently tax - free, while enterprises and financial institutions are taxable. Public fund dividends are exempt from income tax [2][8]. - **Impact on Yield Difference**: Tax system differences are an important reason for the yield differences among different bond types in China. For example, the implied tax rate between Treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds has an upper limit of 25% [9]. 3.2 Under the New Tax Policy, the Market's Rush for Old Bonds is Mainly Due to Different Tax Rates Among Institutions - **New Tax Policy**: Starting from August 8, 2025, new - issued Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds' interest income will be subject to VAT, while old bonds' interest income remains tax - free [11]. - **Pricing of New and Old Bonds**: Assuming the fair - value yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is 1.7%, new bonds need to provide sufficient interest compensation. For asset management products, the new bond issuance rate only needs to reach 1.755% to be equivalent to old bonds, while for self - operated accounts, it needs to reach 1.808%. The actual new - old bond spread may be between 5 - 10BP [12][13]. - **Actual Situation**: Banks can invest in asset management products to avoid tax impacts, which may narrow the new - old bond spread. For short - duration bonds, the new bond yield may rise more. The demand for non - tax - adjusted bonds such as inter - bank certificates of deposit and credit bonds may increase, but the positive impact is limited [14]. 3.3 The New Tax Policy Can Increase the Nominal Interest Rate of New Bonds, but Commercial Banks May Bear Higher Tax Costs - **Policy Motivation**: The central bank may support the policy to increase the nominal level of domestic bond interest rates, and the finance department aims to expand the tax source [17]. - **Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure**: In the first year of the policy implementation, the additional VAT revenue may be less than 36 billion. Eventually, the annual fiscal VAT revenue increase may be within 140 billion, and the annual fiscal interest payment may increase by about 50 billion. The difference reflects the tax cost borne by banks and other financial institutions [3][19][21]. - **Future Policy Expectation**: There may be further adjustments to the tax system of asset management products, especially the tax - exemption policy for public fund dividends [22]. 3.4 After Repricing the Existing Bonds, the Bond Market May Still Show a Volatile Pattern - **Short - Term Market Trend**: The bond market may maintain a volatile pattern in the short term due to the lack of incremental policies in the Politburo meeting in July, limited inflation - driving ability of production - restriction policies, and the expected maintenance of a loose monetary policy [23]. - **Impact of New Tax Policy**: After the new tax policy, there may be a short - term trading opportunity for old bonds as their yields may decline by 0 - 5BP. However, the market may still face disturbances such as rising bank financing costs and potential tax policy adjustments for public funds, and the volatile pattern is difficult to break [24]. - **Long - Term Outlook**: A further decline in interest rates may require weaker fundamental data to force a policy shift. There is a possibility that the economic growth rate may decline in the second half of the year, and if combined with central bank bond - buying or interest rate cuts, interest rates may reach new lows, which may occur in the second half of the third quarter [24].

Group 1: Wealth Management Scale - The wealth management scale decreased by CNY 744 billion to CNY 30.92 trillion during the week of July 28 to August 1[1] - In July, the total growth was only CNY 2,469 billion, significantly lower than the historical average of over CNY 10 trillion for the same month[1] - The decline in scale is attributed to ongoing net value decreases and redemption pressures, with short-term and medium-term debt products experiencing maximum drawdowns of 8bp and 6bp respectively[1] Group 2: Leverage Rates - The average leverage level in the interbank market decreased from 107.41% to 107.34% during the week of July 28 to August 1[3] - Non-bank institutions saw a rebound in leverage rates, increasing from 112.10% to 112.34%[3] - Exchange leverage rates also declined slightly from 122.47% to 122.43% during the same period[3] Group 3: Bond Fund Duration - The duration of interest rate-based medium and long-term bond funds decreased from 5.49 years to 5.45 years[4] - Credit bond fund duration reached a historical high of 2.81 years, up from 2.78 years[4] - Short and medium-term bond fund durations decreased to 1.01 years and 1.65 years respectively[4] Group 4: Government Debt Issuance - The planned issuance of government bonds increased to CNY 5,785 billion for the week of August 4-8, up from CNY 5,174 billion[47] - Net issuance of government bonds rose from CNY 2,876 billion to CNY 3,390 billion, primarily due to a significant increase in national bond net issuance[47] - Local government bond issuance for the week of July 28 to August 1 was CNY 3,372 billion, with a net issuance of CNY 2,360 billion[50]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic growth and manage financial risks, while enhancing financial services for key sectors [3][5][10]. Monetary Policy - The PBOC plans to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing various tools to maintain ample liquidity and guide financial institutions towards reasonable credit growth [5][8]. - Analysts predict potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the second half of the year, with expectations of 1-2 rate cuts totaling 20-30 basis points [9]. - The focus remains on effective execution of existing policies to support economic recovery and reduce financing costs [9][10]. Financial Support and Risk Management - The PBOC aims to enhance financial support for technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade [5][10]. - There is a commitment to address structural financial risks and improve monitoring and assessment of financial stability [10][11]. - The PBOC encourages the use of electronic invoicing for accounts receivable to mitigate risks [9]. Internationalization of the Renminbi - The PBOC is advancing the internationalization of the Renminbi, promoting its use in trade settlements and enhancing its role in global asset allocation [10][11]. - The bank is focused on developing offshore Renminbi markets and improving the infrastructure for cross-border payments [11]. Financial Market Reforms - The PBOC is pushing for reforms in the bond market, including the establishment of a "technology board" and the expansion of technology innovation bond issuance [11]. - There is an emphasis on deepening international financial cooperation and participating in global financial governance [11].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the resumption of value-added tax on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025 [1][4] - The policy aims to lower the "risk-free rate" and "low-risk rate," encouraging funds to flow from bank wealth management and bond markets into the stock market, real estate, or to expand production [3][4] - The introduction of value-added tax on interest income is expected to reduce the profit margins from bond investments, which is seen as beneficial for the stock market, real estate, and the real economy [4][10] Group 2 - The average annualized yield of bank wealth management products was 2.12% as of June 30, 2025, significantly higher than the 1.3% interest rate for five-year fixed deposits, making it attractive for investors [7] - The total scale of the national bank wealth management market reached 30.67 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.53% [7] - The increase in bank deposits, which reached 162.9 trillion yuan, indicates that without a portion of these funds being released, economic recovery may be challenging [8] Group 3 - Recent U.S. employment data showed a significant drop in non-farm payrolls, with only 73,000 jobs added in July, far below market expectations [12][14] - The disappointing employment figures have raised concerns about a potential recession in the U.S. economy, which may lead to an increased likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [16][23] - The resignation of a Federal Reserve board member may provide an opportunity for potential restructuring within the Fed, with market speculation about future leadership changes [18][21]

不降息！这次"表稳里动"的美联储议息会议，似乎让资产价格"受惊"了。 会后，国际黄金价格跌至3327美元/盎司，美元指数升至99.82，10年期美债收益率升至4.37%，2年期美债收益率飙升至3.93%，美股则涨跌不一。 当地时间7月30日，美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）维持联邦基金目标利率在4.25%—4.50%，连续五次"按兵不动"。但市场关注的焦点并非降不降 息，而是此次会议及其声明是否释放出"政策转折"的前兆信号。 答案并不简单。表面上，美联储仍然坚持"数据驱动"立场，强调美国通胀尚未令人信服地回落，降息条件尚不成熟。但此次决议中罕见地出现了两票反对意 见（理事鲍曼和沃勒主张立即降息25个基点）。这或预示着美联储内部政策共识出现裂缝，未来路径将更加灵活、多变且具有争议性。 彭博经济研究院首席美国经济学家AnnaWong指出，自1993年以来，美联储首次出现两位理事对政策决议持不同意见，凸显内部矛盾加剧。或因妥协使然， 本次政策声明比预期更显鸽派，特别提及上半年经济增长放缓。她分析，6月核心个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数和7月非农数据，可能进一步激化FOMC的 分歧。 这并非简单的"鹰"与"鸽"之 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in short-term U.S. Treasury yields, driven by weaker-than-expected employment data, has led traders to increase bets on the Federal Reserve potentially lowering interest rates as early as next month [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The 2-year Treasury yield fell by 21 basis points to 3.74%, marking the largest single-day decline since August of the previous year [1] - The probability of a rate cut in September is now estimated at 80%, indicating strong market expectations for monetary easing [1] - The decline in yields has negatively impacted both the U.S. dollar and the stock market, with the S&P 500 index dropping nearly 2% [1] Group 2: Expert Opinions - Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. rates trading and strategy at AmeriVet Securities, anticipates that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates in September [1] - The recent employment data contradicts previous statements from the Federal Reserve Chairman, who emphasized a strong labor market just days prior [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the manufacturing PMI declined marginally, and the economic momentum of the manufacturing industry also showed a marginal decline, indicating downward pressure on the overall economy. However, the Politburo meeting has set a positive policy tone, and the economy is expected to make steady progress. The government will speed up the issuance of government bonds, and incremental policies may be introduced when economic data shows continuous downward pressure [3][7]. - The Fed's Powell made relatively hawkish remarks at the FOMC meeting. The Fed's core goals are employment and inflation. The inflation data in June was pushed up by rising commodity prices, slightly exceeding expectations, adding uncertainty to the Fed's interest - rate cut timing [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Marginal Decline, Policy Still Has Resilience 3.1.1 Manufacturing PMI Marginal Decline - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, lower than market expectations, and below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. The production index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, and the new order index decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%. The new export order index dropped to 47.1%. The raw material purchase price index and ex - factory price index increased by 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points respectively [4]. 3.1.2 Policy Tone Continues to Be Proactive and Effective - The Politburo meeting at the end of July continued the previous policy tone and further clarified the intensity and direction of policy efforts in the second half of the year. The decision - makers are aware of the economic situation, acknowledging that while the economy has shown good performance in the first half, there are still potential risks in the second half. The consumer demand is weak, and corporate profit growth is negative, with over - capacity in some industries [9]. - The policy space in the second half of the year is sufficient, and fiscal and monetary policies will work together. The government will speed up the issuance of government bonds, and there is still room for interest - rate cuts in the future, which may be implemented when overseas interest - rate pressure eases and domestic economic pressure increases. Service consumption may become a new engine for consumption growth in the second half of the year, and the stock market's allocation value is gradually emerging [12][17][19]. 3.1.3 Focus on US Inflation and Employment Data - The inflation data in June slightly exceeded market expectations, mainly driven by rising commodity prices. At the FOMC meeting, the Fed paused interest - rate cuts as expected, and there was internal disagreement. Powell's speech sent a hawkish signal, and the subsequent path of inflation is uncertain, so the expectation of interest - rate cuts may fluctuate with economic data [21]. 3.2 Key Economic Data and Events to Focus On 3.2.1 Domestic Key Events - Important policies include the release of the national childcare subsidy plan, market regulation of inferior and low - price competition, and strengthening the governance of key industries such as new - energy vehicles and photovoltaics. Key economic data shows that the total operating income of state - owned enterprises from January to June was 40.75 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%, and the manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [24][27]. 3.2.2 Overseas Key Events - In the US, the Treasury Department significantly increased its borrowing estimate for the third quarter. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged, and there were internal differences. There were also issues related to tariffs, employment, and economic growth. Geopolitical events included Trump's stance on Russia, and cease - fire agreements in Thailand and Cambodia [28][34]. 3.3 Key Events and Data to Focus on Next Week - The table lists key events and data to be released next week, including US treasury bill auction rates, eurozone PPI, US export and import volumes, and Chinese CPI and PPI data [36]. 3.4 Weekly Performance of Major Asset Classes - The report provides charts of domestic stock index trends, bond market trends, and various commodity index trends, including the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and various South China commodity indices [38].

东方网记者项颖知7月31日报道：上海市第十六届人大常委会第二十三次会议30日听取市人民政府关于2025年上半年 上海市国民经济和社会发展计划执行情况的报告。报告显示，上半年上海市经济呈现平稳开局、韧性增长态势，就业 和物价保持稳定，市场预期和信心逐步改善，高质量发展扎实推进，展现出韧劲和活力，实现"时间过半、完成任务 过半"。 上半年全市生产总值达到2.62万亿元，同比增长5.1%；其中，工业、金融、信息服务、交通运输、房地产业增加值分 别增长5%、8.8%、14.6%、6.3%和1.8%。 财政收入实现正增长。据报告，上半年全市地方一般公共预算收入4684.4亿元，同比增长0.2%；其中税收收入占比 84.9%。先导性指标回升向好。6月份制造业PMI指数、非制造业商务活动指数分别为50和51.5，均回升至扩张区间。 与此同时，上海继续着力培育壮大新动能，二三产业协调发展。 从消费端看，上半年全市社会消费品零售总额同比增长1.7%。统计显示，上半年消费品以旧换新补贴资金直接带动社 会消费额超过540亿元。截至6月底，汽车以旧换新补贴共申请10.2万辆、新车销售额超200亿元，带动上半年新能源车 销售额增长8. ...