Core Argument - The article argues that the "moat" theory, which has dominated business strategy for the past three decades, is becoming obsolete as the world transitions to a new strategic paradigm called the "consensus plain" [2][3][5]. Group 1: The Decline of the Moat Theory - The moat theory, introduced by Warren Buffett in 1993, emphasized the importance of having a strong competitive advantage to protect investment returns from competitors [2]. - Historical examples illustrate how established companies like Coca-Cola, Kodak, and Walmart have seen their competitive advantages eroded by new entrants that leverage changing consumer preferences and technological advancements [3][5]. - The moat's effectiveness is diminishing as the business landscape shifts from a closed castle model to an open value network model, leading to a strategic paradigm shift [5]. Group 2: Characteristics of the Moat - The moat consists of three essential elements: scarcity, control, and isolation, which were relevant during the industrial era characterized by limited resources [9]. - Brand moats rely on monopolizing consumer perception through significant advertising investments [9]. - Patent moats utilize legal protections to create exclusive advantages based on technological scarcity [9]. - Scale moats achieve cost advantages through high production volumes, allowing companies to dominate pricing [9]. Group 3: Forces Eroding the Moat - Three converging forces are dismantling the moat: the abundance of resources, the networked nature of value creation, and the fluidity of consumer consensus [12][10]. - The abundance of resources, facilitated by cloud computing and open-source movements, has transformed previously scarce resources into accessible infrastructures [12]. - Value is increasingly generated within interconnected ecosystems rather than solely within individual companies, diminishing the relevance of traditional moats [12]. - Consumer loyalty is shifting from static brand recognition to dynamic engagement with values and narratives, making traditional brand moats vulnerable [12]. Group 4: The Consensus Plain Strategy - The "consensus plain" strategy emerges as a new approach when moat logic fails, characterized by an open value creation and exchange environment [13]. - The consensus plain is defined by a shared vision and collaborative rules, attracting participants who contribute to its value [15]. - A strong consensus plain consists of three layers: narrative consensus (the overarching story), rule consensus (operational guidelines), and value consensus (how value is shared) [16]. Group 5: Constructing the Consensus Plain - Building a consensus plain involves a four-step foundational method: identifying value vacuums, crafting a compelling narrative, designing initial rules, and initiating a "cold start flywheel" [22][23]. - Identifying areas with unmet needs is crucial for establishing a consensus plain, as demonstrated by Pinduoduo's focus on price-sensitive consumers [24]. - A powerful narrative serves as the gravitational force for the consensus plain, as seen in Huawei's vision for a unified operating system [29]. - Initial rules must be simple and transparent, facilitating participation and collaboration, as exemplified by BYD's open supply chain model [30]. Group 6: The Evolution of Rules in the Consensus Plain - The power lies in the continuous definition and evolution of rules within the consensus plain, requiring companies to transition from product managers to civilization architects [36]. - Rule definition grants significant commercial power, as illustrated by NVIDIA's dominance through its CUDA ecosystem [37]. - Rules must evolve to maintain vitality and balance, necessitating gradual experimentation and community governance [40]. Group 7: Interactions Between Consensus Plains - As multiple consensus plains coexist, competition and cooperation create a complex landscape, leading to various relationships such as absorption, bridging, and confrontation [50][51]. - The collaboration between national-level and regional plains exemplifies how different levels can resonate and enhance overall value creation [55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on domestic and international liquidity, particularly favoring the technology and trading platform sectors in the cryptocurrency space [1]. Core Views - The report highlights a cautious optimism regarding the recovery of high-end consumption in the luxury goods and gaming sectors, driven by wealth effects and a rebound in Macau's gaming revenue [3]. - The education sector is experiencing increased competition due to a rise in domestic small institutions, while leading companies are stabilizing their capabilities [3]. - The coffee sector remains robust, with high growth in coffee bean imports, while the tea beverage sector faces short-term pressure due to reduced subsidies from delivery platforms [3]. - E-commerce is under pressure from the domestic consumption environment, with overall performance remaining flat [3]. - The report suggests continued interest in music streaming platforms as quality internet assets driven by domestic demand [3]. - The virtual asset and trading platform sectors are experiencing volatility, with a cautious stance recommended in the short term, while maintaining a long-term optimistic view on blockchain and cryptocurrency markets [3]. - The automotive aftermarket is facing a decline in value and service frequency, warranting ongoing attention [3]. - The report emphasizes the potential of the Macau tourism sector, which is expected to benefit from a declining interest rate cycle [3]. - The report expresses confidence in the AI and cloud sectors, anticipating further advancements in AI applications [3]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet - **Education**: The Chinese education index fell by 1.44%, underperforming major indices, with notable stock movements among key players [9]. - **Luxury Goods & Gaming**: The S&P Global Luxury Goods Index rose by 0.81%, with significant developments in the acquisition of Versace by Prada [19][21]. - **Coffee & Tea**: The Hang Seng Non-Essential Consumer Index showed a cumulative increase of 0.74%, with mixed performances among key coffee and tea brands [25]. - **E-commerce**: The sector is facing challenges, with a flat performance noted in the overall market [3]. 1.2 Platforms & Technology - **Streaming Platforms**: The Hang Seng Media Index increased by 0.89%, with varied performances among major streaming companies [35]. - **Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers**: The global cryptocurrency market cap reached $321.51 billion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices showing slight declines [42]. - **Automotive Services**: The automotive aftermarket is experiencing a decline, with a 5% drop in both output value and service frequency [54]. 1.3 Media - The media sector is expected to see growth resilience in gaming, with a focus on product releases in December [3].

Jay 发自 凹非寺 量子位 | 公众号 QbitAI 15年内被裁4次，在惨遭微软、Meta等大厂优化后，美国传奇牛马老李头，今年又被苹果单方面分手了。 丢掉工作的六个月来，他参与了无数面试，收件箱里得到的反馈几乎是清一色的： 「很抱歉，经过综合评估，您这次的面试没有通过。」 没办法，谁叫他今年已经57岁了？ 按说，老李在科技公司摸爬滚打十多年，资历够、经历多，怎么着都算是各大厂争抢的香饽饽。 可现实偏不按套路走——被裁之后，他并没有像旁人想象的那样无缝衔接，反而在足足半年时间内都深陷漫无天日的求职泥沼。 不过也是老李入行晚， 十四年前加入微软当产品经理的时候，他就已经43岁了 。 哪想到，「老来俏」的好日子才过三年，噩耗就从天而降—— 微软宣布启动 1.8万人规模的大裁员 ，老李也不幸成为KPI。 虽说靠着缓冲期，他又在内部找了个岗位续上了工作，但活儿实在太无聊。拖了几年，他还是决定挥手告别微软。 老李的第二站是 Meta 。 这一次，他在Meta担任产品营销经理，负责一款AR眼镜。 不过，被大厂裁出心理阴影的老李，似乎靠AI摸索出了一条能保住饭碗的道路…… 连续被裁四次，苹果只拿他当合同工 去年九月，本 ...

Core Argument - The article argues that despite the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI), the most effective and fundamental way to allocate resources remains the market mechanism, and the inherent flaws of planned economies cannot be eliminated by technological advancements [3][16]. Group 1: Production and Coordination - In the AI era, the complexity and specialization of production will increase, requiring an efficient mechanism to coordinate numerous decentralized decisions [3][4]. - The market mechanism coordinates the actions of billions of producers and consumers through price signals, allowing for spontaneous order without central direction [4][17]. Group 2: Nature of Information - Information is inherently decentralized, subjective, and dynamic, making it impossible for a central authority to fully capture consumer preferences [5][6]. - Centralized information processing faces insurmountable incentive and cost issues, leading to distorted data and unreliable planning [6][19]. Group 3: Objective of Interest Differentiation - The market mechanism recognizes and utilizes the inherent differentiation of interests among individuals, businesses, and governments, guiding personal pursuits of profit towards societal wealth [6][20]. - Planned economies require unrealistic assumptions about altruistic planners and unbiased executors, leading to inefficiencies and power struggles [7][20]. Group 4: Necessity of Platform Competition - The rise of powerful e-commerce and supply-matching platforms raises concerns about the establishment of a single, AI-driven national platform, which would effectively be a digital form of planned economy [8][21]. - Monopolies, even if technology-driven, lead to efficiency losses and decreased service quality, while competitive platforms enhance market vitality [21][22]. Group 5: Core Function of Prices - Prices serve as the only effective means of value discovery in the market, encapsulating vast amounts of information [9][22]. - Central planning attempts to calculate prices face significant obstacles, including the lack of genuine preference signals and the risk of administrative distortion [9][22]. Group 6: Dual Nature of Value - The value of goods is determined by both objective production costs and subjective consumer perceptions, with market transactions reflecting this interaction [10][23]. - AI can measure objective costs but cannot quantify subjective value, which is essential for understanding market dynamics [11][24]. Group 7: Indispensability of Currency - Currency is essential for market operations, facilitating complex exchanges and reducing transaction costs [12][25]. - The notion that AI could eliminate currency and enable direct resource allocation overlooks the necessity of a medium for distribution in a resource-scarce environment [12][25]. Conclusion - AI is a revolutionary tool that enhances market participants' capabilities but does not alter fundamental economic principles [13][26]. - The future will not see AI replacing markets but rather enhancing them, leading to a more transparent, efficient, and innovative market economy [13][26].

阿里巴巴-W（09988）：电商老兵的"云上起舞"与即时零售豪赌 本文首发日期：2025年12月6日 没有港股通的可以关注以下ETF标地：费率较低，阿里巴巴含量较高 | 秦 代码 | | 名称 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 513260 | 融 恒生科技ETF基金 | 0.25阿里9 | | 2 | 159636 | ■ 港股通科技30ETF | 0.52阿里17 | | 3 | 501301 | 香港大盘LOF | 0.6阿里17 | | 4 | | 513010 | o mosterial w | 一、公司基本面：双轮驱动下的"增长换轨" 阿里巴巴的业务可概括为 "左手帮商家开淘宝店，右手给企业租云计算服务器"——这家1999年成立的互联网巨头，以电商起家，如今 已进化成覆盖核心电商、云计算、数字媒体、即时零售的生态型平台。简单说，你深夜刷淘宝下单的衣服、上班用的钉钉视频会议、 甚至早餐通过"淘宝闪购"点的外卖，都跑在它的商业操作系统上。但这家"数字经济体"正面临增长模式切换：传统电商增速放缓，而 云业务与即时零售成为新引擎，后者尤其以利润换规模，引发市场争议。 ...

Core Insights - Ele.me has officially announced that its app will be fully transformed into "Taobao Flash Purchase" after the latest update, signaling a strategic shift within Alibaba Group towards a focus on large-scale consumer platforms [1][2] - The chairman and CEO of Ele.me, Fan Yu, emphasized the unprecedented collaboration within the Alibaba family, showcasing the group's commitment to reshaping market dynamics and enhancing its capabilities in the consumer service sector [1][2] Company Strategy - The transformation of the Ele.me app is viewed as a significant signal of Alibaba Group's continued investment in the large consumer and service e-commerce sector [1][2] - Fan Yu highlighted the journey of Ele.me over the past 18 years, which has built a service system connecting hundreds of millions of users and millions of merchants, reflecting the company's foundational goals [1][2] Market Positioning - During a recent earnings call, Alibaba's management noted that Taobao Flash Purchase has successfully completed rapid scale expansion in its first phase, with economic efficiency optimization in the second phase meeting expectations [1][2] - This progress is seen as a foundation for the long-term sustainable development of the food delivery business and reinforces Alibaba's commitment to long-term investments in instant retail [1][2]

Group 1 - The core concept of "short drama + e-commerce" is gaining attention as a new consumption model, allowing users to purchase products featured in short dramas instantly, enhancing the shopping experience during events like "Double 11" [2][4] - The short drama market in China is projected to reach 505 billion yuan in 2024, surpassing the box office for the first time, with a compound annual growth rate of 19.2% expected until 2027 [3] - Platforms like Kuaishou and Douyin are actively integrating short dramas with e-commerce, creating a seamless flow from exposure to interaction and conversion, thus maximizing marketing potential [2][3] Group 2 - The integration of short dramas into e-commerce is seen as a new way to capture consumer attention, but there are concerns about whether this trend will lead to sustainable growth or is merely a temporary phenomenon [4] - Short dramas are reported to have a higher engagement and conversion rate compared to traditional advertising, making them an effective tool for brands to reach potential customers [4] - Some industry experts express skepticism about the compatibility of short dramas with e-commerce, suggesting that the insertion of shopping elements may disrupt user experience and not align well with content [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Amazon with a target price of $351.87 [7][5]. Core Insights - Amazon's recent re:Invent conference showcased significant updates, including the launch of the Trainium3 chip and enhancements to its Agent development ecosystem, which are expected to accelerate demand for AI agents by 2026 [1][2]. - The performance of the Trainium3 chip has improved significantly, with a 4.4x increase in computing power and a 4x increase in efficiency compared to its predecessor [2]. - The introduction of the Nova2 series models emphasizes high cost-effectiveness, catering to various applications including multimodal inference and image generation [4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The financial projections for Amazon from 2025 to 2027 indicate adjusted net profits of $75.4 billion, $87 billion, and $110.5 billion respectively [5][13]. - The report utilizes a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, maintaining a target price of $351.87, which corresponds to a 42.9x PE ratio for 2026 [5][15]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are projected at $718 billion and $806 billion respectively, reflecting a growth rate of approximately 12.5% [11][23]. Product and Service Developments - The Agent development ecosystem has seen over 2 million downloads of the AgentCore platform within five months, with new features enhancing its capabilities [3]. - The Strands Agents SDK has been updated to support TypeScript and edge devices, broadening the scope for developers [3]. - The Nova2 series models include various products tailored for specific tasks, reinforcing Amazon's commitment to high-performance AI solutions [4]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Amazon has deployed over 1 million Trainium chips, with a significant portion of inference tasks on Bedrock being handled by these chips, indicating a strong integration of self-developed hardware within its cloud services [2]. - The report highlights Amazon's strategy to align its chip architecture with NVIDIA's ecosystem, which is expected to enhance performance and reduce costs [2].

走进2025年末，城市街景正在悄然变色，淘宝闪购骑士纷纷换上了橙黑新制服。12月5日上午，阿里巴巴官方正式宣布：即日起"饿了么"APP在更新至最新 版本后将全面焕新为"淘宝闪购"。这标志着阿里在即时零售领域的布局进入新阶段。 可见这一次，阿里巴巴的野心远不止外卖市场份额，而是要通过淘宝闪购这台稳定的高频增长引擎，完成"远场、中场、近场"的一体化拼图，构建一个全新 的大消费闭环。正如阿里高层明确提出的目标："三年内为平台带来一万亿元人民币的商品交易总额"。这不仅仅是份额的争夺，更是对整个大消费版图的重 构。 01品牌焕新背后：当"万物"涌入近场生活圈 "淘宝闪购"的出现是一切故事的开端。2025年4月淘宝闪购出现在了手淘的显眼位置，"用淘宝闪购点外卖更便宜"成了消费者对它的初印象。 2025是属于淘宝闪购的一年。从4月"淘宝小时达"升级为"淘宝闪购"开始，到8月阿里业务的深度整合，日订单峰值已达1.2亿单，周日均订单量达8000万 单，月度交易买家数突破3亿，饿了么携手淘宝闪购在订单规模、用户增长和运力覆盖方面持续突破。 动辄十几元的补贴吸引和创造了大量的需求，QuestMobile数据显示，7月淘宝APP闪购 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - Alibaba Group is a leading global e-commerce internet technology group that restructured its organization in June, merging Ele.me and Fliggy into its e-commerce business unit, and in August, it adjusted its business structure into four main segments: China E-commerce Group, International Digital Commerce Group, Cloud Intelligence Group, and Others, focusing on "E-commerce, Cloud + AI" as its core business, enhancing organizational concentration and cohesion [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - Instant retail is crucial for maintaining e-commerce traffic advantages, with Alibaba entering the market in May through food delivery services. User activity metrics show a year-on-year increase in Daily Active Users (DAU) from May to October, with growth rates of +3%, +7%, +17%, +19%, +12%, and +9% respectively [1] - Order volume peaked at 120 million in July, with market share for Taobao Flash Purchase and Ele.me rising significantly from 29.4% in Q4 2024 to 42.8% in Q3 2025 [1] - Delivery capability has seen over 240% growth in the number of delivery personnel from April to August 2025 [1] - User Experience (UE) investments are at their highest in FY26Q2, with losses halved from peak levels, and improvements expected as scale and efficiency increase [1] Group 3: AI Strategy - Alibaba Cloud is recognized as a "full-stack AI company," pursuing top-tier self-research capabilities in AI chips, cloud computing platforms, and foundational large model capabilities. It operates in 29 public cloud regions and 92 availability zones globally, with over 3,200 edge nodes [2] - Annual capital expenditures exceed 100 billion yuan, with the Qwen series large models significantly upgraded to Qwen3-Max, enhancing performance and creating a closed-loop with applications like Qwen APP, Quark, Taobao, and DingTalk [2] - The latest PPU chip technology from Alibaba's T-head is at the forefront domestically [2] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The traditional shelf e-commerce advantage is expected to stabilize market share, while cloud business driven by AI shows significant future growth potential. Adjusted net profits for FY2026-2028 are projected at 107.9 billion, 149.4 billion, and 175.8 billion yuan, with corresponding adjusted P/E ratios of 24.8, 17.9, and 15.2 times [2] - The e-commerce business (excluding instant retail) is assigned an 11 times earnings valuation (EBITDA basis), while the cloud business is given a 7 times price-to-sales valuation, with other businesses currently not contributing to valuation. The target market capitalization is set at 3.36 trillion yuan, with a target price of 192.48 HKD, initiating coverage with a "Buy" rating [2]