2026年03月2日 申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯 | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | sunxm@sywgqh.com.cn | | 021-50585921 | | | | | | pt2606 | pt2608 | pt2610 | pd2606 | pd2608 | pd2610 | | | 现价 | 623.75 | 616.80 | 610.65 | 464.85 | 458.50 | 458.00 | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 589.50 | 583.00 | 578.90 | 446.55 | 446.00 | 443.00 | | 货 | 涨跌 | 31.60 | 29.85 | 30.25 | 12.55 | 10.20 | 10.70 | | 市 场 | 涨跌幅 | 5.34% | 5.09% | 5.21% | 2.77% | 2.28% | 2.39% | | | 持仓量 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In the short - term, the market may enter an oscillation and volatility - reduction cycle. The overall market atmosphere is under certain suppression, but in the medium - to - long - term, the commodity bull market is expected to continue. Different industries have their own supply - demand situations and influencing factors, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed based on these [39][45]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance Stock Index - **Market Information**: The annualized basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter are presented. For example, IF's ratios are 4.70%/2.97%/5.48%/4.74% [2]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by factors such as the US - Iran conflict, US tariff policy, RMB exchange rate, and AI business, the stock index is expected to have a relatively strong performance [3]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: The closing prices and changes of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts on Thursday are provided. There are also news about Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the stance of the Bank of Japan. The central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 79.5 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy View**: Although inflation recovery has potential suppression on the bond market, and the endogenous power of economic recovery is not stable, the capital side is expected to remain loose. The bond market is expected to continue to oscillate [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver have declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are reported. The precious metal prices are in horizontal consolidation, with support from Trump's tariff plan and the US - Iran nuclear negotiation, and resistance from the Fed's officials' statements and the expectation of stable US short - term interest rates [7]. - **Strategy View**: The precious metal prices are expected to remain in high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference ranges of 11,300 - 12,000 yuan/gram for Shanghai gold and 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/kilogram for Shanghai silver [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Affected by the US - Iran negotiation and other factors, copper prices are in oscillatory adjustment. LME inventory has increased, and domestic social and bonded area inventories have also changed. The spot discount in the East China region has expanded [11]. - **Strategy View**: The US tariff policy provides emotional support, but the refined copper supply is relatively excessive. Short - term copper prices are expected to be oscillatory, with reference ranges of 101,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 13,100 - 13,400 US dollars/ton for LME copper [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices have adjusted. LME inventory has decreased, and domestic inventory has increased. The spot discount in the East China region has narrowed [13]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price support is strong. The reference ranges are 23,400 - 23,900 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum and 3,100 - 3,170 US dollars/ton for LME aluminum [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices have declined. The social inventory of zinc ingots in China has increased, and the downstream enterprise start - up rate is average [15][16]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc industry in China shows a weak trend. Zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices. The zinc ore TC has stopped falling and stabilized [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices have increased. Both domestic and foreign inventories have risen rapidly, and the industrial situation is weak [17]. - **Strategy View**: The strategic stockpiling of battery enterprises may support the lead price in the short - term. It is necessary to observe the start - up of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices have declined. The prices of nickel ore are stable, and the price of nickel iron has increased [18]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of nickel is shrinking, and nickel prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference ranges of 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai nickel and 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton for LME nickel [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices are in oscillatory operation. The inventory has decreased, and the supply and demand are marginally loose [20]. - **Strategy View**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference ranges of 380,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton for domestic tin and 48,000 - 53,000 US dollars/ton for LME tin [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate has increased. The production has increased, and the inventory has decreased [22]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by the export ban, the short - term spot shortage is expected to continue. It is necessary to be cautious about the increase of selling orders. The reference range for the 2605 contract is 164,000 - 180,000 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index has declined. The spot price in Shandong has increased, and the overseas price is stable. The inventory has increased [24]. - **Strategy View**: The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton for the AO2605 contract [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices have increased. The raw material prices have changed, and the inventory has increased [27]. - **Strategy View**: The supply pressure will be relieved, and the price has a strong bottom support. It is recommended to be bullish, with a reference range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has increased. The inventory has changed, and the trading volume has increased [29]. - **Strategy View**: The cost has support, and the demand is expected to improve. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have declined. The inventory and trading volume have changed [32]. - **Strategy View**: The black series is in a bottom - game stage. It is expected to oscillate within a range with a weak center of gravity in the short - term. It is necessary to focus on the demand recovery and policy trends [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices have declined. Some steel enterprises in North China will implement emission reduction measures during important meetings [34]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas supply has recovered, and the demand is okay. The price is expected to oscillate weakly and stably. It is necessary to pay attention to domestic terminal demand and policy guidance [35]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke have declined. The spot prices have different changes, and the basis is positive [36]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, the upward catalysis of coking coal is weak. It may face a callback risk in March - May, but it may rise in the second half of 2026 [39]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices have declined, and the inventory has increased. Soda ash prices are stable, and the inventory has increased [40][42]. - **Strategy View**: Glass is expected to oscillate, with a reference range of 1,025 - 1,100 yuan/ton. Soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly and stably, with a reference range of 1,140 - 1,200 yuan/ton [41][43]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices have increased, and ferrosilicon prices have also risen slightly [44]. - **Strategy View**: The future market is mainly affected by the black market and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore supply and "dual - carbon" policies [45][46]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices have declined, and polysilicon prices have also decreased [48][50]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weak. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [49][51]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices are in oscillatory operation. The start - up rates of tire enterprises are low, and the inventory has increased [53][54]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to trade according to the short - term trend of the disk and set stop - losses. It is also recommended to go long on NR and short on RU2609 [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices have declined, and the inventory data of related products have changed [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices have changed, and the MTO profit has increased [59]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices have changed, and the basis is negative [61]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short urea due to the expected negative fundamentals [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices and basis of pure benzene and styrene have changed. The supply and demand sides have different performances [63]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits gradually as the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired [64]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices have declined. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak [66]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply - demand situation is poor, and the fundamentals are weak [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices have declined. The supply and demand sides have changed, and the inventory has increased [68]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. There is a risk of rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices have declined. The supply and demand sides have changed, and the inventory has increased [70]. - **Strategy View**: The inventory cycle is about to end. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices have declined. The load and inventory have changed [72]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil in the medium - term [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices have declined. The supply and demand sides are weak, and the inventory has changed [74]. - **Strategy View**: The PE valuation has room to decline, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices have declined. The supply and demand sides are weak, and the inventory pressure is high [76]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [78]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices have different changes. The actual supply pressure has been reduced [80]. - **Strategy View**: The spot price is expected to be weak, but there may be support for the far - month contracts [81]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices are mainly stable. The supply is normal, and the market digestion speed is okay [82]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term spot price decline is limited. It is recommended to wait and see or trade short - term [83]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The export and production data of soybeans in the US and Brazil are provided. The domestic soybean inventory has changed [84]. - **Strategy View**: The protein meal price may be bottoming out due to the increase in import costs [86]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The production, export, and inventory data of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia are provided. The domestic oil inventory has increased [87]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term soybean oil price is stronger. It is recommended to buy when the oil prices stop falling at low levels [88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The production data of sugar in India, Brazil, and Thailand are provided. The domestic import data are also given [89][90]. - **Strategy View**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the international sugar market. The domestic sugar price is suppressed by high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The US cotton export data and the domestic cotton inventory data are provided [92]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to buy on dips if the downstream start - up rate after the Spring Festival is good [93].

Group 1 - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange's crude oil futures closed up by 0.74%, reaching 489.80 RMB per barrel [1] - The Shanghai gold futures closed down by 0.25% [1] - The Shanghai silver futures experienced a decline of 2.93% [1]

上期所原油 期货主力合约夜盘收涨0.74%，报489.80元人民币/桶。沪金夜盘收跌0.25%，沪银收跌 2.93%。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The lithium mining sector experienced a surge, with stocks hitting the limit up, following Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines and Mining Development's emergency statement to suspend all raw mineral and lithium concentrate exports [1] - On February 26, A-shares showed a downward trend, with major indices collectively declining; the ChiNext index fell nearly 1% [1] - The offshore RMB strengthened, surpassing the 6.84 mark, reaching a high of 6.8384 [1][7] Group 2: Stock Performance - Key A-share indices as of the report: Shanghai Composite Index at 4137.80 (-0.23%), Shenzhen Component Index at 14424.91 (-0.35%), and ChiNext Index at 3316.56 (-1.14%) [1] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.08% to 26745.06, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 0.96% to 5210.13 [2][3] Group 3: Commodity Market - Domestic commodity futures mostly rose, with lithium carbonate increasing by over 5% [4] - Other commodities such as tin, platinum, and fuel oil also saw gains, with tin rising by 4% and platinum, fuel oil, and manganese silicon increasing by over 2% [4] Group 4: Renewable Energy Sector - The renewable energy sector showed activity, with companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium experiencing significant stock price increases, reflecting a positive market sentiment towards lithium-related stocks [1][18] - The National Energy Administration's recent report indicated that by 2025, the newly installed capacity for renewable energy generation is expected to reach 452 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 21%, accounting for 83% of the total new power generation capacity [10]

2026年02月26日 申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确 定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | sunxm@sywgqh.com.cn | | 021-50585921 | | | | | | pt2606 | pt2608 | pt2610 | pd2606 | pd2608 | pd2610 | | | 现价 | 586.00 | 579.70 | 576.50 | 457.95 | 454.75 | 455.00 | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 551.85 | 544.00 | 540.30 | 438.45 | 435.00 | 435.25 | | 货 | 涨跌 | 38.50 | 40.40 | 37.70 | 19.70 | 19.35 | 21.30 ...

每经AI快讯，上期所原油期货2604合约夜盘收跌0.63%，报486.50元人民币/桶。沪金夜盘收涨0.65%， 沪银收涨4%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the equity market is experiencing a rebound, with the Wind All A index rising by 1.05% and a trading volume of 2.48 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 262.7 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - The index is testing previous highs, with significant trading volumes on January 14 and January 26, suggesting that many investors entered the market during this period [1] - If the index breaks through previous highs, it will confirm a rebound trend; otherwise, a market pullback may occur, indicating potential short-term volatility [1] Group 2 - Resource products, particularly industrial metals, continue to benefit from price increases, with the Wind rare earth and copper industry indices rising by 8.45% and 3.67%, respectively [2] - The PCB sector also shows positive momentum, with the Wind circuit board index increasing by 3.63%, indicating ongoing investor interest despite index fluctuations [2] - The commercial aerospace and semiconductor equipment sectors are experiencing notable increases, with the Wind commercial aerospace index up by 3.02% and semiconductor equipment index rising by 3.86% [3] Group 3 - In the Hong Kong market, the Wind Hong Kong China Dividend Index rose by 0.89%, while the Hang Seng Innovation and Internet Technology indices fell by 0.27% and 0.30%, respectively [4] - The dividend index remains in an upward trend since the beginning of 2026, while the innovation and internet sectors are experiencing volatility [4] - The performance of dividend index constituent stocks is primarily linked to resource products, indicating that the current dividend market is not driven by dividend logic but rather by resource product trends [4] Group 4 - The liquidity in the market is showing signs of stabilization, with a net injection of 159.5 billion yuan from the central bank through MLF and reverse repos [5] - The 7-day funding rate has decreased, indicating a shift from a tight liquidity environment to a more balanced one [5] - The upcoming days will see a gradual reduction in reverse repo maturity pressure, which may help maintain liquidity stability [5] Group 5 - The bond market is experiencing adjustments due to new real estate policies, with long-term interest rates rising and the 10-year government bond yield reaching 1.80% [6] - The market sentiment in the bond sector is stabilizing after initial volatility, with increased trading volumes observed in key bond products [6] - The adjustments in the bond market are influenced by the real estate sector's new regulations, which have heightened bearish sentiment [6] Group 6 - The commodity market shows a mixed performance, with industrial metals remaining strong while energy and chemical sectors are experiencing slight declines [7] - Precious metals are also showing divergent trends, with gold slightly down by 0.04% and silver up by 4.57% [7] - The black metal sector is rebounding, driven by new real estate policies, with coking coal and rebar prices increasing by 2.3% and 1.7%, respectively [7] Group 7 - A significant outflow of nearly 93.2 billion yuan from commodity indices was noted, particularly affecting precious metals and industrial metals [8] - This outflow is attributed to the restoration of margin requirements to pre-holiday levels, leading to passive exits from the market [8] - Tensions in the geopolitical landscape, particularly regarding U.S.-Iran negotiations, are contributing to market volatility, impacting gold and silver prices [8] Group 8 - Supply-side disruptions in the non-ferrous sector are leading to strong market performance, particularly in tin and lithium [9] - The Indonesian government has adjusted its tin export regulations, causing a temporary slowdown in exports, while Zimbabwe has announced a ban on lithium exports, exacerbating supply concerns [9] - The black metal sector is also reacting positively to new real estate policies, although the long-term impact on actual demand remains to be seen [9]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market opened with most contracts rising, indicating a positive sentiment among investors in various commodities [1] Group 1: Futures Market Performance - Gold futures (沪金) increased by 0.2% [1] - Silver futures (沪银) saw a significant rise of 2.26% [1] - Copper futures (沪铜) rose by 0.42% [1] - Nickel futures (沪镍) experienced a decline of 0.37% [1] - Iron ore (铁矿) increased by 0.87% [1] - Coking coal (焦煤) rose by 0.67% [1] - Crude oil (原油) saw a slight increase of 0.16% [1] - Rubber futures (橡胶) decreased by 0.15% [1]

Metal Market - Domestic base metals generally rose, with the exception of zinc, which fell by 0.04%. Tin led the gains with a 7.62% increase, followed by nickel at 2.32%. Other metals had gains of less than 1% [1] - In the black metal sector, all commodities saw increases of over 1%, with iron ore up 1.42%, stainless steel up 1.24%, rebar up 1.72%, and hot-rolled coil up 1.19%. Both coking coal and coke rose by 2.32% [1] - On the external market, base metals also showed an upward trend, with tin leading at 5.27% and nickel up by 1%. Other metals had gains of less than 1% [1] - Precious metals saw COMEX gold rise by 0.68% and silver by 3.42%. In the domestic market, Shanghai gold fell by 0.04%, while silver rose by 4.57% [1] Additional Metals - Platinum rose by 7.03%, and palladium increased by 4.5% [2] Macro Environment - The Shanghai Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Committee and other departments issued a notice to optimize real estate policies, effective from February 26, 2026, aimed at meeting housing demand and promoting market stability [5][6] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 4.095 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40% [6] Oil Market - As of 15:04, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices increased, with WTI up 0.55% and Brent up 0.54%. Traders are preparing for upcoming US-Iran talks [9] - The API reported a crude oil inventory of 11.427 million barrels for the week ending February 20, against an expectation of 1.25 million barrels [9]