每经AI快讯，12月19日，早盘收盘，国内期货主力合约跌多涨少。集运欧线涨超4%，PX、PTA、沪 镍、不锈钢（SS）涨超2%；跌幅方面，菜油、铂、塑料、氧化铝、燃料油、豆二跌超2%，玻璃、豆 油、橡胶跌超1%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report provides an overview of the capital flow in various futures markets as of December 8, highlighting significant inflows and outflows across different commodities, indicating market trends and investor sentiment [1]. Group 1: Capital Flow Summary - Copper (CU) saw the highest capital inflow of 3.02 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest [1]. - Styrene (EB) and Zinc (ZN) followed with inflows of 0.87 billion yuan and 0.71 billion yuan, respectively, suggesting positive market sentiment for these commodities [1]. - On the other hand, commodities like palm oil (P), tin (SN), and urea (UR) experienced significant outflows, with capital reductions of 1.06 billion yuan, 1.16 billion yuan, and 0.95 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting bearish sentiment [1]. Group 2: Price and Basis Rate Analysis - The report includes detailed pricing data for various commodities, such as iron ore (I) priced at 787 yuan per ton with a basis rate of 3.48% [5]. - The futures price for rebar (RB) is noted at 3280 yuan per ton, with a basis rate of 5.93%, indicating a positive outlook for this sector [5]. - The report also highlights the price movements of other commodities, such as aluminum (AL) and nickel (NI), with respective prices of 21920 yuan per ton and 122690 yuan per ton, showing slight declines in their basis rates [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the domestic futures market saw a majority of the main contracts rise, with polysilicon increasing by over 5% [1] - Other commodities such as焦煤 (coking coal),橡胶 (rubber), 丁二烯橡胶 (butadiene rubber), and 20号胶 (No. 20 rubber) also experienced gains of over 2% [1] - In contrast, commodities like沥青 (asphalt),低硫燃料油 (low sulfur fuel oil),生猪 (live pigs), and不锈钢 (stainless steel) faced declines of over 1% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate on the strong side. The overseas market is trading on the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the issue of its independence, with the falling US dollar index supporting the non - ferrous metal market. Fundamentally, copper production is expected to decline in September, and imported copper may increase. Although demand is affected by tariffs and pre - emptive exports, there is an improving trend [10]. - The decline of lithium carbonate prices is limited. After the market rebound, it stimulates downstream purchasing sentiment. With the approaching of the peak season, there is demand support below. However, the market is easily affected by industry news, and attention should be paid to mine disturbances [12]. - For crude oil, it is recommended to short on rallies. Although the price once rebounded due to positive EIA data and market bets on the Fed's interest - rate cut, the consumption peak season is ending, OPEC+ is accelerating production increase, and the supply - demand situation is weakening [13][15]. - Asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate in the near term. The supply - demand situation is weak, with the开工 rate falling, demand restricted by factors such as funds and weather, and limited cost support from crude oil [16]. - PP is expected to fluctuate. The downstream start - up rate is gradually rising, and the peak season may bring some boost. However, the supply is increasing, and the market is affected by global trade wars and anti - involution policies [17][18]. - Plastic is expected to fluctuate. The cost is under pressure, and the supply is increasing. Although the agricultural film industry is improving, the overall demand is still weak, and it is affected by anti - involution policies [19]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate downward. The supply is high, the demand is weak, the export expectation is weakening, and the inventory pressure is large [20][21]. - The fundamental situation of coking coal is becoming looser. The price is under pressure due to imported coal, and the demand is affected by environmental protection and production cuts. Attention should be paid to the progress of coke price adjustments [22]. - Urea prices are expected to fluctuate. In the autumn fertilizer peak season, there is some demand support, but the supply is still abundant, and the market is in a weak supply - demand situation. Attention should be paid to the 1730 - 1780 yuan/ton fluctuation range [24]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on September 1, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. Polysilicon rose more than 6%, Shanghai silver rose more than 4%, caustic soda and Shanghai gold rose more than 2%, and container shipping to Europe, Shanghai nickel, and stainless steel (SS) rose more than 1%. In terms of declines, glass, coke, and coking coal fell more than 3%, lithium carbonate, iron ore, and soda ash fell more than 2%, and rebar and cotton fell nearly 2%. Stock index futures also showed different degrees of increase [6]. - As of 15:19 on September 1, in terms of capital inflow of domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai copper 2510 inflowed 1.989 billion yuan, Shanghai silver 2510 inflowed 1.741 billion yuan, and Shanghai gold 2510 inflowed 1.488 billion yuan. In terms of capital outflow, CSI 300 2509 outflowed 4.304 billion yuan, CSI 500 2509 outflowed 3.721 billion yuan, and CSI 1000 2509 outflowed 2.89 billion yuan [8]. Individual Variety Analysis Copper - The market opened high and moved low, with a strong - side oscillation. The US PCE price index rose in July. China's copper imports increased in July, and the port inventory of concentrates rebounded. The smelter processing fee decreased recently, and the sulfuric acid price may have reached a high level. Five smelters plan to conduct maintenance in September, and the domestic electrolytic copper output is expected to decline. The import of copper may increase, which will affect the domestic market. The demand is affected by factors such as domestic investment in power grid facilities and the weakening of external demand [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The price opened low and moved low, with a weak - side oscillation. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased. In July 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports decreased. The domestic production is expected to decline from August to September. The demand is supported by the peak - season stocking of power battery factories, but the market is easily affected by industry news [12]. Crude Oil - It is at the end of the seasonal travel peak season. US crude oil and gasoline inventories continue to decrease, and the refinery operating rate is still high. OPEC+ decided to increase production in September, and Saudi Arabia may lower the official selling price in October. EIA and IEA both raised the forecast of global oil surplus, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement negotiation and India's procurement of Russian crude oil [13][15]. Asphalt - The supply - side operating rate decreased last week, and the expected production in September will increase. The downstream operating rate is mostly stable, and the demand is affected by factors such as funds and weather. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased, but it is still at a low level. The cost support from crude oil is limited, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate [16]. PP - The downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the enterprise operating rate is at a neutral level. The production ratio of standard - grade drawn yarn decreased. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The cost is under pressure due to the end of the consumption peak season and OPEC+'s production increase. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak, but the peak season may bring some boost [17][18]. Plastic - The operating rate decreased on September 1, and the downstream operating rate increased slightly. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The cost is under pressure, and the supply is increasing. The agricultural film industry is improving, but the overall demand is still weak [19]. PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price is mostly stable. The supply - side operating rate decreased, and the downstream operating rate is still low. India extended the BIS policy, and the anti - dumping tax on Chinese PVC increased, weakening the export expectation. The social inventory is high, and the demand is affected by the real - estate market. The new production capacity is increasing, and the price is under pressure [20][21]. Coking Coal - The price opened low and moved low, with a downward oscillation. The price of Shanxi coking coal decreased, and the price of Mongolian coking coal increased. The import of coking coal increased in July, and the domestic production decreased due to environmental protection and production cuts. The independent coking enterprises' profit is positive, and the coking coal inventory is decreasing. The coke price increase is not yet finalized, and the steel mill's profit is weakening [22]. Urea - The price opened low and moved low, with a weak - side oscillation. The spot market price fluctuated slightly. The production decreased in August due to maintenance and environmental protection restrictions, but the new production capacity will be put into operation. The demand of compound fertilizer factories decreased due to the September parade, and the industrial demand is affected by the real - estate market. The inventory increased, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the 1730 - 1780 yuan/ton range [24].

Market Overview - Domestic futures main contracts showed a mixed trend with most contracts declining, including coking coal down over 3% and glass down over 2% [1] - Lithium carbonate increased nearly 2%, while coking coal, iron ore, and stainless steel saw slight gains [1] Commodity Performance - Coking coal (2601 M) decreased by 3.44% to 1138.5 [2] - Glass (2509 W) fell by 2.79% to 1114 [2] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) (2509™) dropped by 1.78% to 3984 [2] - Para-xylene (2509 M) decreased by 1.72% to 6860 [2] - Canola meal (2509 M) fell by 1.65% to 2676 [2] - PTA (2509 W) decreased by 1.57% to 4766 [2] - Silver (2510 M) dropped by 1.47% to 8926 [2] - Other commodities like rubber and various oils also experienced minor declines [2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE price index rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, slightly above market expectations [3] - The overall PCE index increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, also exceeding market forecasts [3] - Chicago PMI for July was reported at 47.1, higher than the expected 42 and previous value of 40.4 [3] Interest Rate Outlook - The probability of maintaining interest rates in September is at 61.8%, while the chance of a 25 basis point cut is at 38.2% [3] - By October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 39.4%, with cumulative cuts of 25 basis points at 46.8% and 50 basis points at 13.9% [3] - Overall, inflation data slightly exceeded expectations, leading investors to lower the Fed's rate cut expectations for September [3]

Core Insights - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance, with red dates and urea rising over 2% while SC crude oil fell over 8% [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Red dates and urea increased by more than 2% [1] - Manganese silicon, silicon iron, coke, stainless steel, industrial silicon, and Shanghai lead rose by over 1% [1] - SC crude oil dropped by more than 8%, and fuel oil fell by over 5% [1] Group 2: Other Notable Changes - The shipping index for Europe declined by over 3% [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), rapeseed meal, and pulp all decreased by over 2% [1] - Asphalt experienced a nearly 2% decline [1]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market opened with most main contracts declining, indicating a bearish trend in the market [1] - SC crude oil fell nearly 9%, while fuel oil dropped over 6%, reflecting significant price pressures in the energy sector [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) both decreased by more than 3%, and asphalt fell over 2%, suggesting a widespread decline across various energy commodities [1] Group 2 - In contrast, some commodities showed gains, with Shanghai lead, stainless steel (SS), red dates, and lithium carbonate all rising nearly 1%, indicating pockets of strength in the market [1] - Pulp, PX, and coking coal experienced declines close to 2%, highlighting ongoing challenges in these sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance at midday, with aluminum alloy rising over 4% and styrene (EB) increasing over 2%, while stainless steel (SS), Shanghai zinc, urea, and Shanghai nickel fell over 1% [1] Group 1 - Aluminum alloy experienced a significant increase, rising more than 4% [1] - Styrene (EB) also saw a positive movement, with an increase of over 2% [1] - Several commodities faced declines, including stainless steel (SS), Shanghai zinc, urea, and Shanghai nickel, each dropping more than 1% [1]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market saw most of the main contracts rise in early trading, with aluminum alloy increasing by over 4% [1] - Styrene (EB) rose by more than 3%, while 20 rubber (NR) increased by over 2% [1] - On the downside, Shanghai zinc fell by more than 1%, and both stainless steel (SS) and Shanghai nickel dropped nearly 1% [1]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market opened with more declines than gains, with the main contracts showing varied performance [1] - Aluminum oxide increased by over 1%, while asphalt, rapeseed oil, and palm oil rose nearly 1% [1] - On the downside, paraxylene (PX), PTA, and stainless steel (SS) fell by more than 1%, with bottle glass, ethylene glycol, short fiber, rapeseed meal, and caustic soda dropping nearly 1% [1]