Core Viewpoint - The fuel vehicle market in China shows signs of recovery after a challenging period, with sales figures indicating a slight increase in May, although the overall trend remains under pressure from the rise of electric vehicles [3][4][5]. Sales Performance - In May, domestic sales of traditional fuel passenger vehicles reached 854,000 units, marking a month-on-month increase of 2.2% and a year-on-year decline of 1% [4][5]. - Total passenger vehicle sales in May were 1.884 million units, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 5.2% and a year-on-year increase of 12.3% [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The market for fuel vehicles is experiencing a shift, with domestic brands like Chery, Geely, and Changan narrowing the gap with joint venture brands [3][12]. - The promotional efforts for fuel vehicles remain high, with a promotion intensity of 22.5% in May, which is an increase from previous months [6][7]. Consumer Behavior - A significant portion of consumers, particularly those with annual incomes below 150,000 yuan, show a preference for fuel vehicles due to concerns over purchase costs and convenience [6][10]. - The anxiety surrounding electric vehicle charging infrastructure continues to impact consumer choices, with many preferring the driving experience of fuel vehicles [6][10]. Competitive Landscape - Joint venture brands have seen a notable recovery in sales, with major players like Volkswagen and Nissan reporting significant month-on-month growth in A-class sedan sales [7][8]. - However, there is a growing divide among joint venture brands, with some experiencing declines while others, like Toyota, adapt to market demands by introducing new electric models [9][10]. Autonomous Brands Performance - Chinese brands accounted for 1.622 million passenger vehicle sales in May, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.6% and capturing 69% of the total market share [10][11]. - Notable performances in the new energy vehicle segment were recorded, with BYD, Geely, and Changan leading in sales growth [10][11]. Future Outlook - Despite the current recovery, experts predict a long-term decline in the fuel vehicle market share, with projections indicating that new energy vehicles could account for 70%-80% of total sales by 2027-2028 [13][16]. - The industry is expected to continue balancing fuel and electric vehicle offerings, as companies recognize the importance of maintaining a presence in the fuel vehicle market for profitability [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Toyota's strategic focus on plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) amidst a slowing growth rate in electric vehicle (EV) sales, highlighting the company's diversified approach to achieving carbon neutrality and its cautious stance compared to other manufacturers [3][5][11]. Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - Electric vehicle sales are still growing, but the pace has slowed compared to early 2020 [3]. - Analysts predict moderate growth for PHEVs in the next five years, with S&P forecasting a penetration rate increase from about 2% last year to 5% by the end of the decade in the U.S. [5]. - AutoPacific estimates that by 2030, the penetration rate for PHEVs will reach approximately 4.2%, while AutoForecast Solutions expects it to stabilize around 3.3% [5]. Group 2: Toyota's Strategy and Product Line - Toyota has been promoting hybrid vehicles globally since 1997, with PHEVs being a natural extension of this strategy [7]. - Currently, PHEVs account for 50.6% of Toyota's electric vehicle sales in North America [7]. - The company plans to expand its PHEV lineup, with a focus on increasing electric-only range [9][11]. Group 3: Sales Performance and Growth - Toyota and Lexus PHEV sales grew by 39% last year, with the Prius and RAV4 PHEV models increasing by 30% [13]. - Lexus PHEVs, including the new TX model, saw an impressive growth of 88.6% [14]. Group 4: Challenges and Consumer Education - PHEVs face higher manufacturing costs due to the dual powertrain system, making them more expensive than traditional hybrids or gasoline vehicles [16][18]. - Educating consumers about the benefits and operation of PHEVs is crucial for increasing market acceptance [20]. Group 5: Future Models and Innovations - Toyota is transitioning core models to offer only hybrid options, starting with the new Camry and RAV4 [23]. - The Grand Highlander is expected to feature a PHEV system, likely based on the RAV4's technology [25]. Group 6: Long-term Strategy and Production Capacity - Toyota's long-term strategy includes offering a variety of powertrain options, including hybrids, PHEVs, and EVs [27]. - The company is set to begin battery production at its new North Carolina plant, which will support the demand for PHEVs and EVs [31][32].

Core Insights - The overall performance of the domestic passenger car market in April showed a total sales volume of 1.69 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [3][7] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 51.57% in April, slightly up from 51.50% in March, indicating a stable but not significantly advancing market for NEVs [4][5] Sales Performance - In April, the sales of fuel vehicles dropped by 6.5% year-on-year, while pure electric vehicles saw a growth of 32.72% and plug-in hybrids increased by 15.41% [7][8] - Cumulatively from January to April, the penetration rate of NEVs was 47.6%, still below that of fuel vehicles [6] Competitive Landscape - BYD's sales in April totaled 261,000 units, a year-on-year increase of only 4.92%, which is below the market average growth [10] - Geely's sales reached 162,000 units in April, marking a significant year-on-year growth of 46.6%, narrowing the gap with BYD [10][11] - Changan's overall sales in April were 94,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 6.29%, but cumulative sales from January to April declined by 7.7% [11] Joint Venture Brands - Volkswagen's total sales in April were 141,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 4.51%, but still losing market share [12] - Toyota's sales exceeded 120,000 units in April, with a year-on-year growth of 16%, making it one of the few joint venture brands performing well [14] Luxury Brands - Lexus and Land Rover experienced sales declines exceeding 40% in April, while other luxury brands like Mercedes, BMW, and Audi saw declines around 20% [17] - The overall scale of traditional luxury brands is rapidly shrinking, with domestic new energy brands beginning to catch up [17] New Forces - Tesla's sales fell below 30,000 units in April, a year-on-year decline of 10.4%, resulting in a drop from the top three in the new energy vehicle segment [19][20] - Xiaomi's SU7 model achieved sales of 28,500 units in April, closely competing with Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y [21] - NIO's total sales reached 24,900 units in April, a year-on-year increase of 78%, indicating a significant recovery [25]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant shift in the Chinese automotive market, where domestic brands are gaining market share at the expense of joint venture brands, particularly Japanese brands [2][10] - In the first quarter of this year, domestic brands achieved a record market share of 62.9%, while joint venture and independent brands, including Tesla, saw their share drop to 37.1%, down from 52.7% at the end of 2022 [2] - Japanese joint venture brands are struggling, with Nissan's sales in China decreasing by 27.5% in the first quarter, and their market share dropping to 11.2% in 2024 [2][10] Group 2 - The launch of the Dongfeng Nissan N7 represents a strategic shift for Japanese joint venture brands, moving from price competition to localization and integration of smart technology [5][12] - The N7's development involved a team of Chinese engineers and was designed based on the needs of Chinese consumers, showcasing a significant change in approach [5][12] - The GAC Toyota BZ3X also emphasizes localization, featuring advanced technology and design tailored to Chinese consumer preferences, achieving over 10,000 orders shortly after its launch [8][12] Group 3 - The articles discuss the broader trend of joint venture brands embracing localization in their strategies, with companies like Nissan and BMW investing heavily in local R&D and production capabilities [10][12] - Nissan plans to invest 10 billion yuan in its technology center in China over the next three years, aiming to enhance its R&D capabilities and speed up product development [12] - The shift towards a more localized approach is seen as essential for joint venture brands to remain competitive in the rapidly evolving Chinese automotive market [10][12]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 我们认为，1）以旧换新政策发力下预计2025E销量提振前景依然可期，车展前后新车密集上市，或有望催 化行业景气度向上抬升；2）中美关税冲突或短期对板块情绪造成扰动，看好2025E全年智能化主线带动板 块成长可能性及相关投资机会。 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 4月23日，第二十一届上海国际汽车工业展览会在上海国家会展中心正式开幕。本届车展以"拥抱创新 共赢 未来"为主题，参展车辆总数约1,300辆，其中新能源车占比超70%。车展亮相重点车型包括：1）新势力： 蔚来（ET9/乐道L90/萤火虫）、小鹏（P7+旗舰版、2025款X9/G6/G9）、理想（MEGA Home家庭特别 版/MEGA Ultra智能焕新版/L6智能焕新版）、零跑（B10/B0 ...

撰 文 / 孟 为 设 计 / shelly 2024年，中国新能源市场继续高歌猛进，以1286.6万辆的销量，同比增长35.5%，新能源市场渗透 率超过47%。 市场的激烈淘汰赛，也让车企品牌的表现愈发分化，动力电池市场的格局，也在这样的分化之下， 发生了微妙的变动。 2024年，零跑汽车全年累计交付新车近30万辆，同比增长超100%，超额完成25万辆的年销量目 标；上汽通用五菱全年销量达1540077辆，其中新能源销量达800000辆，占比超50%，同比增长 63%。 上汽通用别克GL8 PHEV自2024年6月上市后，月销量稳定在每月3000-4000辆，成为推动GL8重新 杀回月度销量榜首的重要车型；广汽传祺通过推出PHEV的E8车型快速切入家庭MPV市场，该核心 产品的销量迅速爬升，在24年四季度月均销量超过6000台、一汽红旗在新能源车上开始加大对 PHEV的投入，整体能源汽车销量已在持续增长。 核心客户业绩的增长，也给正力新能带来了增长的机会。 2024年国内动力电池企业装车量中，正力新能排名第9，装车量9.85GWh，市场占比1.8%，连续三 年持续增长。 2025年，零跑汽车的销量目标是要超 ...