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公募基金指数跟踪周报(2026.01.05-2026.01.09):权益市场交投活跃,顺势而为避免追高-20260112
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2026-01-12 10:43
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first week of 2026 (01.05 - 01.09), the A - share market continued its upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving 16 consecutive positive days and standing above 4100 points. The market trading remained highly active, with Friday's turnover reaching 3 trillion and the margin trading balance exceeding 2.6 trillion. The market was mainly driven by bottom - up growth themes, with technology - related sectors like AI applications, commercial space, and brain - computer interfaces rotating. The small and medium - cap style was dominant [3][12]. - In the short term, the overseas US employment market has resilience but also structural pressure. Inflation data is not expected to have a strong rebound, and the market has digested the possibility of the Fed not cutting interest rates in January. Overseas markets may experience high - level volatility in the short term, with limited impact on the domestic market. The overall supply - demand of market funds is neutral to optimistic, and with the profit - making effect, off - market funds may continue to flow in, and the market is expected to continue its upward trend [3][14]. - Last week (01.05 - 01.09), the bond market showed a "V - shaped reversal", with long - term yields generally weakening. The short - term sentiment in the bond market has stabilized slightly, but the possibility of interest rate cuts in the medium and short term is still low. The bond market lacks positive catalysts, and it may have a short - term rebound but is likely to remain neutral in the medium term, with a dominant wait - and - see sentiment [4][15]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Market Observation 1.1. Equity Market Review and Observation - Market Performance: In the first week of 2026 (01.05 - 01.09), the A - share market continued to rise, with major broad - based indices generally increasing and reaching new stage highs. The trading volume on Friday returned to the peak of 3 trillion, and the margin trading balance exceeded 2.6 trillion. The market was driven by growth themes such as AI applications, commercial space, and brain - computer interfaces, with the small and medium - cap style being dominant [12]. - Sector Analysis: The brain - computer interface sector was active this week. Expectations of Neuralink's mass production, the establishment of Gestalt Technology in China, and market expectations for the "14th Five - Year Plan" drove the sector's sentiment. The sector may maintain its popularity with the upcoming "2026 Brain - Computer Interface Developers Conference" and other positive news. The aerospace sector had a continuous rally, driven by factors such as the IPO boom in the commercial space field, policy support, and satellite constellation plans. The growth of the growth sector was also related to the CES 2026 exhibition, with the intelligent vehicle and robot sectors being catalyzed by the "physical AI" concept and the focus on the autonomous driving ecosystem and mass production plans at the CES 2026 [12][13]. - Outlook: Overseas markets may experience high - level volatility in the short term with limited impact on the domestic market. The market funds' supply - demand is neutral to optimistic, and off - market funds may continue to flow in. However, the establishment of a fundamental one - sided trend still needs the verification of better - than - expected domestic demand. It is recommended that funds that missed the previous rally wait patiently for policy clues during the "Two Sessions" to seek more certain allocation opportunities [14]. 1.2. Pan - Fixed - Income Market Review and Observation - Bond Market: Last week (01.05 - 01.09), the bond market showed a "V - shaped reversal", with the 1 - year Treasury yield falling 4.35BP to 1.29%, the 10 - year yield rising 3.55BP to 1.88%, and the 30 - year yield rising 4.95BP to 2.30%. The short - term sentiment in the bond market has stabilized slightly, but the possibility of interest rate cuts in the medium and short term is low, and it may have a short - term rebound but remain neutral in the medium term [4][15]. - US Treasury Bonds: The US Treasury yield curve flattened last week, with short - term yields rising and long - term yields falling. The 1 - year yield rose 5BP to 3.52%, the 2 - year yield rose 7BP to 3.54%, and the 10 - year yield fell 1BP to 4.18%. The market believes the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in the short term is small [15][16]. - REITs: The CSI REITs Total Return Index rose 1.89% last week, closing at 1028.93 points. Four new public REITs made progress in the primary market [16]. 2. Fund Index Performance Tracking 2.1. Equity Strategy Theme - Based Index - **Active Stock Fund Selection Index**: The index selects 15 funds in each period, with equal - weight allocation. It selects active equity funds based on performance competitiveness and style stability in value, balanced, and growth styles, and matches the style distribution of the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index. The performance benchmark is the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index (930950.CSI) [20]. 2.2. Investment Style - Based Index - **Value Stock Fund Selection Index**: It includes both deep - value and quality - value styles. It selects 10 funds of deep - value, quality - value, and balanced - value styles based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index (H30356.CSI) [20]. - **Balanced Stock Fund Selection Index**: Balanced - style fund managers balance stock valuation and growth. The index selects 10 relatively balanced, value - growth style funds based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 (000906.SH) [22]. - **Growth Stock Fund Selection Index**: The growth style aims to capture the double - click opportunities of performance and valuation. It selects 10 funds of active - growth, quality - growth, and balanced - growth styles based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the 800 Growth Index (H30355.CSI) [24][26]. 2.3. Industry Theme - Based Index - **Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Selection Index**: It selects funds based on the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of the representative index (CITIC Pharmaceutical). The average purity in the past 3 years/inception should be no less than 60%. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 15 funds. The performance benchmark is the pharmaceutical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities) [28]. - **Consumer Stock Fund Selection Index**: It selects funds based on the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Automobile, Home Appliances, etc.). The average purity in the past 3 years/inception should be no less than 50%. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 10 funds. The performance benchmark is the consumer theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities) [31]. - **Technology Stock Fund Selection Index**: It selects funds based on the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Electronics, etc.). The average purity in the past 3 years/inception should be no less than 60%. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 10 funds. The performance benchmark is the technology theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities) [34]. - **High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Selection Index**: It selects funds based on the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Construction, etc.). The average purity in the past 3 years/inception should be no less than 50%. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 10 funds. The performance benchmark is the high - end manufacturing theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities) [37]. - **Cyclical Stock Fund Selection Index**: It selects funds based on the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Petroleum & Chemicals, etc.). The average purity in the past 3 years/inception should be no less than 50%. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 5 funds. The performance benchmark is the cyclical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities) [41]. 2.4. Money - Market Enhancement Index - **Money - Market Enhancement Strategy Index**: It aims at liquidity management, pursuing a curve that exceeds money - market funds and is smooth and upward. It mainly allocates money - market funds with relatively good performance and inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds in passive index - bond funds. The performance benchmark is the CSI Money - Market Fund Index (H11025.CSI) [44]. 2.5. Pure - Bond Index - **Short - Term Bond Fund Selection Index**: It aims at liquidity management, pursuing a smooth and upward curve while ensuring drawdown control. It mainly allocates 5 funds with stable long - term returns, strict drawdown control, and significant absolute - return ability. The performance benchmark is 50% * Short - Term Pure - Bond Fund Index + 50% * Ordinary Money - Market Fund Index [46]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Selection Index**: It invests in medium - and long - term pure - bond funds, pursuing stable returns while controlling drawdowns. It selects 5 funds with both return and drawdown control, and adjusts the duration and the ratio of credit - bond funds and interest - rate - bond funds according to market conditions. [48] 2.6. Fixed - Income + Index - **Low - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection Index**: The equity center is 10%. It selects 10 funds with an equity center (considering convertible bond and stock holdings) within 15% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 10% CSI 800 Index+90% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [49][52]. - **Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection Index**: The equity center is 20%. It selects 5 funds with an equity center between 15% - 25% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 20% CSI 800 Index+80% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [52]. - **High - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection Index**: The equity center is 30%. It selects 5 funds with an equity center between 25% - 35% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 30% CSI 800 Index+70% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [56]. 2.7. Other Pan - Fixed - Income Index - **Convertible Bond Fund Selection Index**: It selects bond - type funds with the average proportion of convertible bond investment in bond market value no less than 60% in the latest period and no less than 80% in the past four quarters as the sample space. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 5 funds [59]. - **QDII Bond Fund Selection Index**: It selects 6 funds with stable returns and good risk control based on credit and duration conditions, with underlying assets being overseas bonds [61]. - **REITs Fund Selection Index**: It selects 10 funds with stable operation, reasonable valuation, and certain elasticity based on the underlying asset type [62].
【公募基金】外部担忧缓解,延续震荡格局——公募基金权益指数跟踪周报(2025.12.15-2025.12.19)
华宝财富魔方· 2025-12-22 09:04
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the equity market, highlighting a mixed performance with a focus on domestic demand expansion and structural differentiation in market trends [2][11][13]. Group 1: Market Overview - The equity market experienced high volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.03% and the CSI 300 Index falling by 0.28% during the week of December 15-19, 2025 [2][11]. - The average daily trading volume across the market was 17,465 billion, showing a decrease compared to the previous week [11]. - The financial and consumer sectors performed relatively well, while growth sectors lagged behind [11][13]. Group 2: Domestic Demand Expansion - A significant emphasis was placed on expanding domestic demand, as highlighted by President Xi Jinping's article in "Qiushi" magazine, which elevated the strategy to a national level [13]. - Continuous policy support is expected to stimulate consumption, optimize new policy implementations, and address unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector [13]. - The potential introduction of national subsidy policies post-New Year is anticipated to further boost consumption [13]. Group 3: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.10%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 2.82%, with most sectors experiencing a pullback due to concerns over rising U.S. Treasury yields and potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [14]. - Short-term pressures on the Hong Kong market are expected to persist, but there remains a valuation advantage for Hong Kong stocks if short-term factors dissipate [14]. Group 4: Fund Performance Tracking - The Active Equity Fund Selection Index rose by 0.09% last week, achieving a cumulative excess return of 16.68% since inception [4]. - The Value Equity Fund Selection Index increased by 1.02%, with a cumulative excess return of 3.56% since inception [5]. - The Growth Equity Fund Selection Index fell by 1.02%, but has recorded a cumulative excess return of 13.05% since inception [6].
公募基金权益指数跟踪周报(2025.12.15-2025.12.19):外部担忧缓解,延续震荡格局-20251222
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-12-22 09:03
Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View of the Report - The market continued its high - level oscillation last week (2025.12.15 - 2025.12.19), with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.03% and the CSI 300 falling 0.28%. The value style outperformed the growth style. In the short term, the market is expected to continue its structurally differentiated market, and broad - based indices may maintain high - level oscillations. In the long term, industrial innovation changes and long - term capital inflows are still expected to support the market [3][12][13]. - Domestic policies are focused on boosting domestic demand and consumption. There may be continuous policies in the future to optimize the implementation of relevant policies, clear unreasonable restrictions in the consumption field, and release the potential of service consumption. Attention should also be paid to whether the expanded national subsidy policy will be introduced after New Year's Day to further boost consumption [5][13]. - The Hong Kong stock market was under pressure last week due to factors such as the rise of US bond yields and concerns about the reversal of yen carry - trades. In the short term, market risk appetite may be under pressure, but it still has certain valuation advantages if short - term suppressing factors are eliminated [5][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Equity Market Review and Observation - **Market Performance**: The market continued high - level oscillation last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.03% and the CSI 300 down 0.28%. The value style was stronger than the growth style. The financial and consumption sectors performed relatively well, while the growth sector was weak. The average daily trading volume of the whole market was 17,465 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous week [12]. - **Overseas Market**: After the concern about the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike was alleviated and the US non - farm payrolls report and inflation data were weaker than expected, the risk appetite of the financial market was restored, and overseas technology assets rebounded from oversold conditions. However, there are still concerns about US re - inflation, and US bond yields remained strong [12]. - **Domestic Market**: Benefiting from the elevation of domestic demand expansion to a strategic level, various ministries and official media have continuously emphasized domestic demand expansion and consumption promotion. The market has switched to cyclical sectors dominated by service consumption. Since December, there have been many market hotspots but no clear main line [12][13]. - **Domestic Demand Policy**: The core of the policy is to adhere to the strategic base point of domestic demand expansion, promote the in - depth integration of people's livelihood improvement and consumption promotion, and stimulate market vitality. There may be continuous policies in the future, and attention should be paid to whether the national subsidy policy will be expanded after New Year's Day [13]. - **Hong Kong Stock Market**: The Hang Seng Index fell 1.10% and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.82% last week. Most sectors pulled back. The rise of US bond yields and concerns about the reversal of yen carry - trades suppressed the liquidity of the Hong Kong stock market. In the short term, market risk appetite may be under pressure, but it has certain valuation advantages in the long run [14]. 3.2 Active Equity Fund Index Performance Tracking | Index Classification | Last Week (2025.12.15 - 2025.12.19) | Last Month (2025.11.19 - 2025.12.19) | Since the Beginning of This Year (2025.01.02 - 2025.12.19) | Since Inception | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Strategy Theme: Active Stock Fund Preferred | 0.09% | 1.95% | 39.19% | 40.32% | | Investment Style: Value Stock Fund Preferred | 1.02% | 0.67% | 19.97% | 20.06% | | Investment Style: Balanced Stock Fund Preferred | - 0.11% | 0.32% | 30.61% | 27.74% | | Investment Style: Growth Stock Fund Preferred | - 1.02% | 1.61% | 52.89% | 39.15% | | Industry Theme: Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Preferred | - 2.04% | - 2.88% | 33.86% | 15.96% | | Industry Theme: Consumption Stock Fund Preferred | 0.03% | - 0.33% | 11.14% | 3.98% | | Industry Theme: Technology Stock Fund Preferred | - 1.45% | 1.21% | 45.92% | 48.21% | | Industry Theme: High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Preferred | - 3.24% | - 2.33% | 30.77% | 24.46% | | Industry Theme: Cyclical Stock Fund Preferred | 1.68% | 2.82% | 29.40% | 20.26% | [15] - **Active Stock Fund Preferred**: Each period selects 15 funds with equal - weight allocation. The core positions select active equity funds based on performance competitiveness, style stability, etc., and balance the style distribution according to the CSI Active Stock Fund Index. The performance benchmark is the Active Stock Fund Index (930980.CSI) [16]. - **Value Stock Fund Preferred**: Selects 10 funds of deep - value, quality - value, and balanced - value styles. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index (H30356.CSI) [18]. - **Balanced Stock Fund Preferred**: Selects 10 funds of relatively balanced and value - growth styles. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 (000906.SH) [20]. - **Growth Stock Fund Preferred**: Selects 10 funds of active - growth, quality - growth, and balanced - growth styles. The performance benchmark is the 800 Growth Index (H30355.CSI) [22][23]. - **Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Preferred**: Selects 15 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of the representative index (CITIC Pharmaceutical). The performance benchmark is the pharmaceutical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research and Investment Platform) [23][27]. - **Consumption Stock Fund Preferred**: Selects 10 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of the representative index (CITIC Automobile, Home Appliances, etc.). The performance benchmark is the consumption theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research and Investment Platform) [27]. - **Technology Stock Fund Preferred**: Selects 10 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of the representative index (CITIC Electronics, etc.). The performance benchmark is the technology theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research and Investment Platform) [32]. - **High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Preferred**: Selects 10 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of the representative index (CITIC Construction, etc.). The performance benchmark is the high - end manufacturing theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research and Investment Platform) [34]. - **Cyclical Stock Fund Preferred**: Selects 5 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of the representative index (CITIC Petroleum and Petrochemical, etc.). The performance benchmark is the cyclical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research and Investment Platform) [34][35].
公募基金权益指数跟踪周报(2025.12.01-2025.12.05):市场缩量上涨,宏观博弈临近-20251208
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-12-08 10:16
1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week (2025.12.01 - 2025.12.05), the A - share market continued to rise with shrinking volume, and the market was waiting for a new leading line. The release of the "Guiding Opinions on the Performance Appraisal and Management of Fund Management Companies (Draft for Comment)" will promote the transformation of the public - fund industry from scale expansion to value creation and high - quality development [3][13][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Market Observation 3.1.1. Equity Market Review and Observation - The A - share market continued to rise with shrinking volume last week. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37%, the CSI 300 rose 1.28%, the CSI 500 rose 0.94%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.86%. Growth styles outperformed value styles. The average daily trading volume of the whole A - share market was 1,687 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous week. The market is waiting for new leading lines. Multiple important policy time - windows are approaching in mid - December [13]. - In the non - banking financial sector, on December 5th, the financial regulatory authority issued a notice to adjust risk factors for insurance companies, which increased the investment space for insurance funds in equities and encouraged long - term holding. There is also strong momentum for incremental insurance funds to enter the market across the year [14]. - In the commercial aerospace sector, affected by short - term events, it was active last week. The investment in this sector may follow the "emotion first, logic follow - up" path, and the current market may be in the transition period from "emotion" to "logic" [14]. - In the precious metals sector, the rapid rise in silver prices is due to the expected recovery of global liquidity, the tight global silver spot market, and the change in the supply - demand structure. In the long run, the contraction of the US dollar credit will continue to drive the upward trend of precious metals [15]. 3.1.2. Public - Fund Market Dynamics - On December 6, 2025, the "Guiding Opinions on the Performance Appraisal and Management of Fund Management Companies (Draft for Comment)" was issued. It further refines and implements previous action plans, aiming to correct the short - term incentives and weak responsibility constraints in the public - fund industry and promote high - quality development. Balancing scale, product excess returns, and investors' account returns will be crucial for the public - fund industry in the future [16][17]. 3.2. Active Equity Fund Index Performance Tracking | Index Category | Last Week (2025.12.01 - 2025.12.05) | Last Month (2025.11.05 - 2025.12.05) | Since the Beginning of This Year (2025.01.02 - 2025.12.05) | Since Inception | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Strategy Theme - based | Active stock - fund preferred | 1.64% | 0.78% | 38.23% | 39.35% (since 2023.05.11) | | Investment Style - based | Value stock - fund preferred | 1.62% | 1.98% | 20.24% | 20.34% (since 2023.05.11) | | | Balanced stock - fund preferred | 1.00% | - 0.57% | 30.38% | 27.53% (since 2023.05.11) | | | Growth stock - fund preferred | 0.64% | - 0.16% | 52.11% | 38.44% (since 2023.05.11) | | Industry Theme - based | Pharmaceutical stock - fund preferred | - 1.73% | - 0.71% | 37.80% | 19.37% (since 2023.05.11) | | | Consumption stock - fund preferred | - 0.31% | - 0.85% | 11.70% | 4.51% (since 2023.05.11) | | | Technology stock - fund preferred | 0.56% | - 1.80% | 44.60% | 46.87% (since 2023.05.11) | | | High - end manufacturing stock - fund preferred | - 0.53% | - 2.72% | 31.07% | 24.75% (since 2023.05.11) | | | Cyclical stock - fund preferred | 1.95% | 3.19% | 27.38% | 18.39% (since 2024.11.08) | 3.2.1. Active Stock - Fund Preferred - The index selects 15 funds each period, with equal - weight allocation. It selects active equity funds based on performance competitiveness and style stability in value, balanced, and growth styles, and balances the style allocation according to the CSI Active Stock - type Fund Index [19]. - The performance comparison benchmark is the active stock - type fund index (930980.CSI) [20]. 3.2.2. Value Stock - Fund Preferred - The index includes deep - value and quality - value styles, and selects 10 funds based on multi - period style division [23]. - The performance comparison benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index (H30356.CSI) [23]. 3.2.3. Balanced Stock - Fund Preferred - The index selects 10 relatively balanced and value - growth style funds based on multi - period style division. The fund managers in this style balance the valuation and growth of stocks and consider cost - effectiveness in both stock - selection and industry - selection [25]. - The performance comparison benchmark is the CSI 800 (000906.SH) [25]. 3.2.4. Growth Stock - Fund Preferred - The index aims to capture the performance and valuation double - click opportunities of high - growth companies and selects 10 active - growth, quality - growth, and balanced - growth style funds based on multi - period style division [27]. - The performance comparison benchmark is the 800 Growth Index (H30355.CSI) [27]. 3.2.5. Pharmaceutical Stock - Fund Preferred - The index selects funds with an average purity of no less than 60% in the pharmaceutical industry over the past 3 years or since inception. It constructs an evaluation system and ensures 15 funds are included [27]. - The performance comparison benchmark is the pharmaceutical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research Platform) [27]. 3.2.6. Consumption Stock - Fund Preferred - The index selects funds with an average purity of no less than 50% in the consumption industry over the past 3 years or since inception. It constructs an evaluation system and ensures 10 funds are included [31]. - The performance comparison benchmark is the consumption theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research Platform) [33]. 3.2.7. Technology Stock - Fund Preferred - The index selects funds with an average purity of no less than 60% in the technology industry over the past 3 years or since inception. It constructs an evaluation system and ensures 10 funds are included [35]. - The performance comparison benchmark is the technology theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research Platform) [35]. 3.2.8. High - end Manufacturing Stock - Fund Preferred - The index selects funds with an average purity of no less than 50% in the high - end manufacturing industry over the past 3 years or since inception. It constructs an evaluation system and ensures 10 funds are included [38]. - The performance comparison benchmark is the high - end manufacturing theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research Platform) [38]. 3.2.9. Cyclical Stock - Fund Preferred - The index selects funds with an average purity of no less than 50% in the cyclical industry over the past 3 years or since inception. It constructs an evaluation system and ensures 5 funds are included [41]. - The performance comparison benchmark is the cyclical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research Platform) [41].
【公募基金】市场缩量上涨,宏观博弈临近——公募基金权益指数跟踪周报(2025.12.01-2025.12.05)
华宝财富魔方· 2025-12-08 09:33
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent trends in the A-share market, indicating a continuation of volume contraction and a rotation of themes, with market participants awaiting new guiding signals [3][11]. - The A-share market saw a slight increase in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.37%, the CSI 300 by 1.28%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.86%, indicating a stronger performance in growth styles compared to value styles [11]. - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market was 16,870 billion, showing a decrease compared to the previous week, reflecting a cautious market sentiment as it approaches significant policy meetings [11]. Group 2 - The non-bank financial sector is influenced by the recent notification from the financial regulatory authority, which aims to encourage insurance funds to invest more in specific equity assets by adjusting risk factors [4][12]. - The commercial aerospace sector has shown active performance due to recent event-driven catalysts, with significant developments in rocket launches and tests, suggesting a potential shift from emotional to logical investment strategies [4][12][13]. - Precious metals, particularly silver, have experienced a rapid price increase due to global liquidity recovery and supply-demand dynamics, with long-term trends expected to be influenced by the narrative of shrinking dollar credit [4][13]. Group 3 - The public fund market is undergoing a transformation with the introduction of new performance assessment guidelines aimed at correcting past issues of short-term incentives and soft accountability, promoting a focus on value creation and high-quality development [4][14]. - The guidelines emphasize a core assessment system based on investment returns, aiming to align the interests of fund managers with long-term returns for investors [14]. Group 4 - The active equity fund indices showed positive performance, with the Active Stock Fund Selection Index rising by 1.64% last week, achieving a cumulative excess return of 15.40% since inception [5]. - The Value Stock Fund Selection Index increased by 1.62%, with a cumulative excess return of 3.96% since inception, while the Balanced Stock Fund Selection Index rose by 1.00%, achieving a cumulative excess return of 9.27% [6][7]. - The Growth Stock Fund Selection Index saw a smaller increase of 0.64%, with a cumulative excess return of 13.45%, while the Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Selection Index decreased by 1.73%, but still recorded a cumulative excess return of 21.62% [8][9].
公募基金权益指数跟踪周报(2025.11.24-2025.11.28):市场延续缩量,海外风险释放-20251201
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-12-01 08:44
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - From November 24 to 28, 2025, small-cap stocks led the gains in the equity market, with the growth style outperforming the value style. The average daily trading volume of the entire A-share market was 1.7312 trillion yuan, continuing to decline week-on-week, and market activity remained to be restored. Near the end of the year, funds focused on performance assessment, resulting in low willingness for incremental funds to enter the market. In this environment, high-low band operations are more suitable for structural opportunities in the stock game [3][10]. - Global conflicts have been cooling down. After the trade disputes in early October, the relationship games among China, the US, and Japan are expected to become more stable, and there is also hope for peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. With the approaching US mid-term elections in 2026, the Trump administration may refocus on domestic issues [4][11]. - In the technology sector, during the controversy over the "bubble" of overseas AI and the short-term stock price adjustment, the market consensus in the domestic technology sector last week was concentrated on the Google industry chain. However, the current participation in the Google industry chain is more based on mapping rather than fundamental drivers, and it is difficult to quantify the future market space and industry growth rate. There is also a "pulling and stepping" phenomenon of funds within the technology sector [4][12]. - The commercial space industry showed a typical theme investment pattern in the short term, with the market following key events or policy implementations. In the long term, technological breakthroughs, accelerated launch site construction, and the implementation of terminal application scenarios will jointly promote the large-scale development of the industry [4][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Market Observation 1.1 Equity Market Review and Observation - Market Performance: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.40%, the CSI 300 rose 1.64%, and the ChiNext Index rose 4.54%. Small-cap stocks led the gains, and the growth style outperformed the value style. The average daily trading volume of the entire A-share market was 1.7312 trillion yuan, continuing to decline week-on-week [10]. - Market Environment: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December once reached 85%, improving the external monetary environment. However, near the end of the year, funds focused on performance assessment, resulting in low willingness for incremental funds to enter the market. In this environment, high-low band operations are more suitable for structural opportunities in the stock game [10]. - Overseas Risk Release: Global conflicts have been cooling down. The relationship games among China, the US, and Japan are expected to become more stable, and there is also hope for peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. With the approaching US mid-term elections in 2026, the Trump administration may refocus on domestic issues [4][11]. - Technology Direction: The market consensus in the domestic technology sector last week was concentrated on the Google industry chain. However, the current participation in the Google industry chain is more based on mapping rather than fundamental drivers, and it is difficult to quantify the future market space and industry growth rate. There is also a "pulling and stepping" phenomenon of funds within the technology sector [4][12]. - Commercial Space: The commercial space industry showed a typical theme investment pattern in the short term, with the market following key events or policy implementations. In the long term, technological breakthroughs, accelerated launch site construction, and the implementation of terminal application scenarios will jointly promote the large-scale development of the industry [4][13]. 2. Active Equity Fund Index Performance Tracking 2.1 Active Stock Fund Preferred Index - Performance: It rose 2.88% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of 14.64% since its establishment. The index selects 15 active equity funds based on performance competitiveness and style stability, with equal-weight allocation for each fund. The performance benchmark is the CSI Active Stock Fund Index (930980.CSI) [5][14][15]. 2.2 Value Stock Fund Preferred Index - Performance: It rose 1.21% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of 3.70% since its establishment. The index selects 10 funds with deep value, quality value, and balanced value styles based on multi-period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index (H30356.CSI) [5][14][17]. 2.3 Balanced Stock Fund Preferred Index - Performance: It rose 2.37% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of 9.46% since its establishment. The index selects 10 relatively balanced and value-growth style funds based on multi-period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 (000906.SH) [5][14][19]. 2.4 Growth Stock Fund Preferred Index - Performance: It rose 4.37% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of 15.15% since its establishment. The index selects 10 active growth, quality growth, and balanced growth style funds based on multi-period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 Growth Index (H30355.CSI) [5][14][23]. 2.5 Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Preferred Index - Performance: It rose 4.42% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of 22.11% since its establishment. The index selects 15 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and the representative index (CITIC Pharmaceutical), with an average purity of not less than 60% in the past 3 years or since establishment. The performance benchmark is the pharmaceutical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities Fund Research Platform) [5][14][24]. 2.6 Consumption Stock Fund Preferred Index - Performance: It rose 2.85% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of 19.33% since its establishment. The index selects 10 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and the representative index (CITIC Automobile, Home Appliances, Commerce and Retail, Consumer Services, Textile and Apparel, Food and Beverage, Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery), with an average purity of not less than 50% in the past 3 years or since establishment. The performance benchmark is the consumption theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities Fund Research Platform) [5][14][27]. 2.7 Technology Stock Fund Preferred Index - Performance: It rose 4.24% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of 20.79% since its establishment. The index selects 10 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and the representative index (CITIC Electronics, Communications, Computer, Media), with an average purity of not less than 60% in the past 3 years or since establishment. The performance benchmark is the technology theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities Fund Research Platform) [5][14][32]. 2.8 High-End Manufacturing Stock Fund Preferred Index - Performance: It rose 5.69% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of -1.97% since its establishment. The index selects 10 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and the representative index (CITIC Construction, Light Industry Manufacturing, Machinery, Power Equipment and New Energy, National Defense and Military Industry, Electronics, Communications), with an average purity of not less than 50% in the past 3 years or since establishment. The performance benchmark is the high-end manufacturing theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities Fund Research Platform) [5][14][34]. 2.9 Cyclical Stock Fund Preferred Index - Performance: It rose 2.96% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of -0.81% since its establishment. The index selects 5 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and the representative index (CITIC Petroleum and Petrochemical, Coal, Non-Ferrous Metals, Steel, Building Materials, Basic Chemicals, Banks, Non-Bank Finance, Real Estate, Comprehensive Finance), with an average purity of not less than 50% in the past 3 years or since establishment. The performance benchmark is the cyclical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities Fund Research Platform) [5][14][34].
公募基金权益指数跟踪周报(2025.11.03-2025.11.07):板块高低切换,从算力到电力-20251110
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-11-10 07:51
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed a volatile pattern last week (2025.11.03 - 2025.11.07), with the value style outperforming the growth style. The market is "desensitized" to positive news due to the lack of earnings report data and the intensified high - level volatility of the US AI sector. The style switch is becoming clearer, and the power grid and energy storage industries are attracting funds [3][13][14]. - The new fund issuance is continuously warming up, and "same - day sold - out funds" have reappeared [6]. - The electricity new (E - new) sector is expected to become one of the main market trends, as the energy logic, especially power supply, is hard to be falsified in the short term, and the expectation of green power policies in China is rising [5][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Equity Market Review and Observation - **Market Performance**: The A - share market was volatile last week. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.08%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.65%, the CSI Dividend Index rose 2.25%, and the North Exchange 50 Index fell 3.79%. The pro - cyclical sectors such as power equipment, coal, and petrochemicals led the gains, while the computer and pharmaceutical sectors declined. The average daily trading volume was 2.01 trillion yuan, down from the previous period [13]. - **Market Features**: The market is "desensitized" to positive news in the fourth quarter. The style switch is clear, and the power grid and energy storage industries are favored. The Shanghai Composite Index may fluctuate around 4000 points, and a fundamental driving force is needed to break through [14]. - **Technology Direction**: In the US, the government's interest - binding with cloud service providers in the AI industry is expected to strengthen. In China, the domestic computing power industry chain is sluggish, and the capital expenditure growth of cloud service providers has slowed down [14]. - **Policy**: On November 7, the State Council issued an implementation opinion focusing on digital - real economy integration, providing long - term policy support for AI, intelligent manufacturing, and new energy industries [15]. - **Power Direction**: The global AI competition is a Sino - US duopoly. China faces challenges in advanced - process chips, while the US has energy infrastructure bottlenecks. The E - new sector is expected to be a market mainstay, with more certain profit realization next year [5][15][16]. 3.2 Public Fund Market Dynamics New fund issuance is warming up, with two funds raising over 3 billion yuan in one day on November 4 [6][18]. 3.3 Active Equity Fund Index Performance Tracking | Index Category | Last Week | Last Month | YTD | Since Inception | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Active Stock Fund Selection | 0.72% | - 1.06% | 39.20% | 40.33% | | Value Stock Fund Selection | 1.29% | 1.18% | 19.44% | 19.53% | | Balanced Stock Fund Selection | 0.66% | - 1.73% | 32.40% | 29.50% | | Growth Stock Fund Selection | 0.16% | - 3.55% | 52.89% | 39.14% | | Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Selection | - 4.77% | - 8.16% | 36.20% | 17.99% | | Consumption Stock Fund Selection | - 2.11% | - 5.83% | 12.55% | 5.30% | | Technology Stock Fund Selection | 0.75% | - 3.17% | 48.52% | 50.85% | | High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Selection | 1.23% | - 0.45% | 38.37% | 31.69% | | Cyclical Stock Fund Selection | - 0.25% | - 4.50% | 25.79% | 16.91% | Each index has its own positioning and performance comparison benchmark. For example, the Active Stock Fund Selection Index selects 15 funds equally weighted, and its benchmark is the CSI Active Stock Fund Index (930980.CSI) [19][20].
公募基金权益指数跟踪周报(2025.09.15-2025.09.19):市场波动提升,中期线索转向-20250922
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-09-22 11:34
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai Composite Index approached the 3900 - point mark last week but was dragged down by leading stocks in heavy - weight sectors. The market was high - level volatile, with a structural profit - making effect. High - quality industry leaders, especially globally competitive companies, showed strength. The growth style outperformed the value style, and the market activity increased. The "going global" trend may present a structural opportunity [13]. - The "catch - up" trend of the Hang Seng Tech Index can be attributed to the upward revision of the profit expectations of the Hong Kong stock technology sector and factors on the denominator side such as a stable geopolitical environment and interest - rate cut expectations. If the Fed cuts interest rates continuously in Q4, Chinese assets represented by Hong Kong stocks may attract more foreign capital [5][14]. - The valuation logic of upstream resource stocks has shifted from a cyclical to a DCF model. After the short - term speculative funds withdraw, the resource sector is expected to return to fundamental - driven growth. The photovoltaic sector has rebounded, and the subsequent development depends on policy implementation. The energy - storage sector has opportunities for valuation restoration [5][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Equity Market Review and Observation - **Market Performance**: From September 15 - 19, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index neared 3900 points but was pulled down by heavy - weight sectors. The growth style outperformed the value style, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.30%, the ChiNext Index up 2.34%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 5.09%. The market activity increased, with the average daily trading volume of the whole A - shares reaching 2.5163 trillion [13]. - **Policy and Opportunities**: The Sino - US leaders' phone call and previous policies may drive the "going global" trend as a structural opportunity. The market is re - pricing high - quality industry leaders [13]. - **Sector Analysis** - **Hang Seng Tech**: The profit expectations of the Hong Kong stock technology sector are rising, and factors like a stable geopolitical environment and interest - rate cut expectations are driving the "catch - up" trend. If the Fed cuts interest rates in Q4, more foreign capital may flow in [5][14]. - **Resources**: The valuation logic of resource stocks has shifted. After short - term speculative funds leave, the sector will be driven by fundamentals [5][15]. - **Photovoltaic and Energy Storage**: The photovoltaic sector has rebounded due to anti - involution efforts, and the energy - storage sector has opportunities for valuation restoration driven by policies and improved sentiment [5][15]. 3.2 Active Equity Fund Index Performance Tracking - **Performance of Different Indexes** - **Active Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Up 0.80% last week, with a cumulative excess return of 13.06% since its establishment [7]. - **Value Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Down 0.48% last week, with a cumulative excess return of 5.03% since its establishment [7]. - **Balanced Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Up 0.62% last week, with a cumulative excess return of 9.60% since its establishment [7]. - **Growth Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Up 1.18% last week, with a cumulative excess return of 15.85% since its establishment [7]. - **Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Down 2.53% last week, with a cumulative excess return of 20.73% since its establishment [7]. - **Consumer Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Up 0.77% last week, with a cumulative excess return of 22.39% since its establishment [7]. - **Technology Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Up 2.12% last week, with a cumulative excess return of 21.07% since its establishment [7]. - **High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Up 2.13% last week, with a cumulative excess return of - 3.47% since its establishment [7]. - **Cyclical Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Down 4.24% last week, with a cumulative excess return of - 2.77% since its establishment [7]. - **Index Positioning and Benchmarks** - **Active Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Selects 15 funds equally weighted, with the core positions selected based on performance competitiveness and style stability, and balanced according to the style distribution of the CSI Active Equity Fund Index. The benchmark is the Active Stock Fund Index (930980.CSI) [17]. - **Value Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Selects 10 funds with deep - value, quality - value, and balanced - value styles. The benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index (H30356.CSI) [19][20]. - **Balanced Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Selects 10 relatively balanced and value - growth style funds. The benchmark is the CSI 800 Index (000906.SH) [20]. - **Growth Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Selects 10 actively - growing, quality - growing, and balanced - growing style funds. The benchmark is the 800 Growth Index (H30355.CSI) [23][25]. - **Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Selects 15 funds based on the intersection of equity holdings and the pharmaceutical index, with a benchmark of the pharmaceutical theme fund index [24]. - **Consumer Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Selects 10 funds based on the intersection of equity holdings and consumer - related indexes, with a benchmark of the consumer theme fund index [28]. - **Technology Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Selects 10 funds based on the intersection of equity holdings and technology - related indexes, with a benchmark of the technology theme fund index [30]. - **High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Selects 10 funds based on the intersection of equity holdings and high - end manufacturing - related indexes, with a benchmark of the high - end manufacturing theme fund index [34]. - **Cyclical Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Selects 5 funds based on the intersection of equity holdings and cyclical - related indexes, with a benchmark of the cyclical theme fund index [36][38].
【公募基金】科技行情扩散,市场继续上行——公募基金权益指数跟踪周报(2025.08.18-2025.08.22)
华宝财富魔方· 2025-08-25 10:12
Group 1 - The domestic stock market experienced a broad increase last week (August 18-22, 2025), with growth style significantly outperforming value style, and small-cap stocks leading in relative gains. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.49%, the CSI 300 increased by 4.18%, the ChiNext Index climbed by 5.85%, and the STAR 50 surged by 13.31% [3][11] - The leading sectors were concentrated in the AI industry chain, non-ferrous metals, and innovative pharmaceuticals, indicating a persistent structural characteristic in the market [3][11] - The current market sentiment is at a neutral to high level, but not extreme, suggesting the potential for continued upward movement in the absence of significant negative news [11] Group 2 - The domestic computing power sector showed strong performance, driven by breakthroughs from DeepSeek, with a focus on domestic GPU and equipment as well as the expansion into computing power leasing and AI applications [4][12][13] - The military industry is expected to see collaborative development across the entire industry chain, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and underwater operations, as highlighted by the recent military parade [4][13] - The Hong Kong tech sector's performance has been bolstered by scarce assets in innovative pharmaceuticals and new consumption, with expectations of reduced negative impacts from liquidity constraints following dovish signals from the Federal Reserve [4][14] Group 3 - On August 22, 2025, the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced modifications to the classification of securities companies, aiming to enhance the regulatory framework and support the differentiated development of small and medium-sized institutions [4][15] - The new regulations introduce specific indicators for self-operated investments in equity assets, asset management products, and fund distribution, guiding securities firms to strengthen their capabilities in serving the real economy and investors [4][15] Group 4 - The Active Equity Fund Index rose by 3.35% last week, achieving a cumulative excess return of 11.01% since inception [5] - The Value Equity Fund Index increased by 1.88%, with a cumulative excess return of -2.06% since inception [6] - The Balanced Equity Fund Index rose by 3.44%, with a cumulative excess return of 7.76% since inception [7] - The Growth Equity Fund Index increased by 4.56%, achieving a cumulative excess return of 18.11% since inception [8] - The Pharmaceutical Equity Fund Index rose by 0.01%, with a cumulative excess return of 22.86% since inception [9] - The Consumer Equity Fund Index increased by 3.41%, achieving a cumulative excess return of 17.06% since inception [9] - The Technology Equity Fund Index rose by 5.99%, with a cumulative excess return of 18.31% since inception [9] - The High-end Manufacturing Equity Fund Index increased by 2.75%, with a cumulative excess return of -4.27% since inception [9] - The Cyclical Equity Fund Index rose by 1.03%, with a cumulative excess return of -2.58% since inception [9]
【公募基金】市场波动放大,景气板块占优——公募基金权益指数跟踪周报(2025.07.28-2025.08.01)
华宝财富魔方· 2025-08-04 09:43
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent market adjustments, with major indices mostly declining, while specific sectors like PCB and innovative pharmaceuticals continue to accelerate trends, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3][12] - The AI computing sector shows increased capital expenditure from overseas tech giants, confirming the rationality of North American computing demand, while domestic computing's self-control is seen as an inevitable trend [4][13] - The innovative pharmaceutical theme has surged significantly, with the Wind data indicating a 25.61% increase in the innovative drug index for July, driven by clinical advancements and overseas breakthroughs [14] Group 2 - As of August 1, 2025, over 91.81% of actively managed equity funds have achieved positive returns this year, with an average return of 13.50%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 index [15] - The active equity fund index tracking shows varied performances, with the growth stock index rising by 0.63% and achieving a cumulative excess return of 20.58% since inception [8][12] - The pharmaceutical stock index rose by 3.48% last week, reflecting strong performance in the sector, while the consumer stock index fell by 1.78% [9][12]