（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，11月21日，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。碳酸锂跌超8%，沪银跌超3%，红枣、低硫燃料 油（LU）、集运指数（欧线）、玻璃、工业硅、SC原油跌超2%；涨幅方面，淀粉涨超1%，玉米涨近 1%。 ...

Group 1 - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance, with live hogs rising over 2% [1] - International copper and European shipping rates increased nearly 2% [1] - Egg prices, Shanghai copper, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), and fuel oil all rose over 1% [1] Group 2 - Red dates and Shanghai gold experienced declines of over 1% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Affected by the Fed's cautious rate - cut expectations, the copper price is still on a strong trend due to tight fundamentals, though the upward momentum is weaker than the previous day [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: With supply and demand gradually tightening, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the short term, supported by the peak - season and pre - holiday stocking expectations [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: The supply - demand of crude oil is weakening. It is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - to - long term [12]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price is expected to decline in a fluctuating manner due to high supply - demand pressure of crude oil and limited follow - up of spot prices [13][14]. - **PP**: PP is expected to fluctuate as the peak - season demand falls short of expectations and there is no actual anti - involution policy [15]. - **Plastic**: The plastic market is expected to fluctuate as the peak - season demand is underwhelming and no anti - involution policy has been implemented [17]. - **PVC**: PVC is expected to face downward pressure in the near term as downstream pre - holiday stocking ends and new capacity comes on stream [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: Attention should be paid to the price transmission between upstream and downstream after the price increase and the macro - market during the National Day holiday [20]. - **Urea**: The urea market is in a state of bottom - grinding with weak fundamentals and limited upward momentum [21][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - **Price Changes**: As of September 26th, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Red dates rose nearly 3%, and silver rose over 2%, while coke and coking coal fell over 2% [6]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:16 on September 26th, funds flowed into CSI 1000 2512, silver 2512, and CSI 500 2512, while flowing out of SSE 50 2512, copper 2511, and iron ore 2601 [7]. 3.2 Individual Commodity Analysis - **Copper**: The supply of refined copper remains tight due to smelter overhauls and reduced scrap copper supply. The demand is driven by pre - holiday replenishment [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is affected by the reduction of lithium mica - sourced production, and the demand for pre - holiday stocking is ending [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ production adjustment will increase the pressure in Q4. The travel peak season is over, but there are factors such as geopolitical risks and inventory changes [12]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is restricted by funds and weather. The cost support is strengthening, but the follow - up supply - demand pressure of crude oil is high [13][14]. - **PP**: The downstream开工率 is rising, but the peak - season demand is weak. There are new capacity releases and inventory reduction by petrochemical enterprises [15]. - **Plastic**: The开工率 is increasing, and the agricultural film is entering the peak season, but the peak - season effect is not obvious [17]. - **PVC**: The supply is increasing, the export expectation is weakening, and the inventory pressure is high. The cost support is strengthening [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: The mine output is increasing, and the downstream inventory is piling up. Attention should be paid to the price increase and holiday market [20]. - **Urea**: The daily output is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high [21][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market is trading on the expected magnitude of the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index is continuously weakening. Fundamentally, domestic copper production is expected to decrease significantly due to reduced scrap copper imports and domestic smelter maintenance, which will support copper prices. However, the significant inventory build - up at the Shanghai Futures Exchange will limit the upside potential of the market [9]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be strong in the short - term, but the specific situation of mine resumption is unclear, which may cap the upside [10][11]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand balance of crude oil will weaken, and it is recommended to go short on rallies. In the short - term, the market may focus on whether Europe and the US will increase sanctions on Russian crude oil, and the price will fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - The supply and demand of asphalt are both increasing. As the futures price has fallen to the lower end of the trading range, it is recommended to wait and see [14]. - It is expected that PP will trade in a range in the near term, with limited downside [15][16]. - It is expected that plastic will trade in a range in the near term, with limited downside [17]. - The upside potential of PVC is limited in the near term. Attention should be paid to whether the recent increase in demand can be sustained [18][19]. - Coking coal remains in a relatively strong trend at present [20]. - The urea market is building a bottom, with a chance of a rebound later. However, the loose supply - demand pattern has not reversed, and the market lacks drivers [21][22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on September 17, most domestic futures main contracts declined. The container shipping European line dropped nearly 7%, rapeseed meal and polysilicon fell more than 2%, and alumina, silver futures, and soybeans No. 2 dropped nearly 2%. In terms of gains, low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose nearly 2%, SC crude oil and fuel oil rose more than 1%. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also showed varying degrees of increase [6]. - As of 15:22 on September 17, in terms of capital flow in domestic futures main contracts, crude oil 2511, alumina 2601, and ten - year treasury bond 2512 had capital inflows, while CSI 1000 2509, CSI 500 2509, and SSE 50 2509 had capital outflows [7]. Hot - Spot Varieties Copper - Today, Shanghai copper opened and closed lower. The TC/RC fees remained weakly stable. The supply of refined copper will remain tight. The production of electrolytic copper in August decreased slightly month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The supply of scrap copper in September will decline, and smelters have maintenance plans. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has started to build up [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and closed high today. The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The supply from lithium mica raw materials decreased, and lithium spodumene became the main raw material. The demand is expected to increase during the peak season, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term [10][11]. Crude Oil - Crude oil is gradually exiting the seasonal travel peak. The overall oil product inventory in the US continues to increase, and OPEC+ will adjust production. Saudi Aramco has lowered the price of its flagship product. The supply - demand balance of crude oil will weaken in the medium - to - long - term, and it will fluctuate in the short - term [12]. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate has rebounded but is still at a relatively low level. The expected production in September will increase. The downstream construction rate has increased, but the shipment volume has decreased. The refinery inventory has increased slightly. The cost support is limited, and the supply and demand are both increasing [14]. PP - The downstream operating rate of PP has rebounded but is at a relatively low level. The enterprise operating rate has increased, and the production ratio of standard products has risen. The cost has rebounded, and new production capacity has been put into operation. It is expected to trade in a range in the near term [15][16]. Plastic - The plastic operating rate has declined slightly. The downstream operating rate has increased, and the demand for agricultural films is expected to increase. The cost has rebounded, and new production capacity has been put into operation. It is expected to trade in a range in the near term [17]. PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price has increased. The PVC operating rate has increased and is at a relatively high level. The downstream operating rate has increased but is still low compared to previous years. The export outlook has weakened, and the inventory pressure is large. The upside potential is limited [18][19]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low today but turned positive at the end. The spot price in the Shanxi market was stable, and the price of Mongolian coking coal increased. The production and imports have increased, and the inventory is gradually shifting to the end - users. The demand has increased, and it remains in a strong trend [20]. Urea - Urea opened low and closed low today, with weak intraday fluctuations. The daily production is expected to remain at a relatively high level, and the demand is affected by factors such as weak terminal demand and high inventory. The market is building a bottom, and there is a chance of a rebound [21][22].

Group 1 - The majority of domestic commodity futures closed lower on September 17, with significant declines in various contracts [2] - The main contract for container shipping on the European route fell nearly 7%, while soybean meal and polysilicon dropped over 2% [2] - Other commodities such as alumina, Shanghai silver, and soybean No. 2 also experienced declines close to 2%, with live pigs and soybean meal dropping over 1% [2] Group 2 - In contrast, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) increased by nearly 2%, while SC crude oil and fuel oil rose by over 1% [2]

Group 1 - The majority of domestic futures main contracts experienced a decline, with lithium carbonate rising nearly 2% [1] - Industrial silicon and iron ore increased by over 1%, while eggs and hot-rolled coils rose nearly 1% [1] - In terms of declines, red dates fell by over 3%, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) dropped by more than 2%, and other commodities such as fuel oil, coking coal, SC crude oil, PX, alumina, and asphalt all decreased by over 1% [1]

Group 1 - The main contract for eggs opened lower and continued to weaken, with a decline of over 5% in the last three trading days due to weak spot prices and significant adjustments in basis [1] - As of July 31, the average price of brown-shelled eggs in China was 3.09 yuan per jin, with the basis remaining around -300 yuan per ton, indicating expectations for convergence as the delivery month approaches [1][2] - The increase in the number of laying hens in July has continued, with a larger increase compared to the previous month, while the number of older hens in production areas is low, leading to reduced pressure for culling [2] Group 2 - The demand for eggs is expected to increase in late August, which may support egg prices, indicating a near-term supply pressure but potential for price recovery in the long term [4] - The egg price may continue to decline in the short term due to supply-side pressures and basis return, but there is a possibility of a stronger market in the future [4] - The overall market for futures contracts showed mixed results, with significant declines in egg prices and other commodities like industrial silicon and low-sulfur fuel oil [3]

Group 1 - The majority of domestic futures main contracts have risen, with the European shipping index increasing by over 3% [1] - Specific commodities such as styrene (EB), PX, ethylene glycol (EG), PTA, butadiene rubber, bottle flakes, and short fibers have also risen by over 3% [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) has increased by nearly 3%, while methanol and No. 20 rubber (NR) have risen by over 2% [1] Group 2 - On the downside, urea and caustic soda have decreased by over 1% [1]

金十期货5月12日讯，能化系期货主力合约集体走高，苯乙烯涨超4%，燃料油、丁二烯橡胶涨超3%， 20号胶、纸浆、烧碱、SC原油、橡胶、PTA、乙二醇、甲醇、瓶片、低硫燃料油（LU）、短纤、纯碱 涨超2%。 能化系期货主力合约集体走高 ...