证券研究报告 | 2025 年 07 月 04 日 晨会集萃 重点推荐 《固收|信用专题》 1、各省份清欠如何？根据各省的预算调整方案或预算执行报告，目前已 有广西、湖南、云南、陕西四个省份公布了关于清欠企业账款的具体情况。 其中湖南、云南明确用于解决拖欠企业账款的金额分别为 200、356 亿元， 而广西是 365 亿元的专项债限额中部分用于解决拖欠企业账款，陕西也 是 501 亿元专项债中部分用于解决拖欠企业账款，且台账内拖欠企业账 款实现"应清尽清"。2、各区县清欠如何？从各区县公布的关于清欠企业 账款的相关表述来看，有以下几种类型：（1）多数涉及清欠企业账款的表 述说明了清欠企业账款的具体规模：偿还规模相对比较高的有贵州铜仁德 江县，有 20.59 亿元。（2）台账内政府拖欠企业账款清零：主要涉及贵州、 四川、陕西的区县，具体如贵州铜仁碧江区、贵州铜仁江口县、四川遂宁 船山区及陕西的区县。（3）再融资债券/专项债券可用于解决拖欠企业账 款，但只披露再融资债/专项债规模，未披露解决拖欠企业账款的实际规 模：如广西白色凌云县、广西桂林七星区、贵州贵阳息烽县、河南郑州管 城区、天津东丽区等。 风险提示：数据 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Views - The liquor sector is experiencing a decline in sentiment due to fluctuations in the price of Feitian Moutai, with leading companies actively exploring new consumption scenarios and demographics [2][13] - The health products, soft drinks, and snacks sectors are viewed positively due to high growth potential, low base effects, and upcoming peak seasons [4][15] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 0.88% from June 23 to June 27, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.95% [1][22] - Specific sector performances included health products (+3.65%), baked goods (+2.72%), and soft drinks (-0.58%) [1][22] Liquor Sector Insights - The white liquor sector declined by 1.66%, attributed to seasonal demand weakness and price fluctuations of high-end products like Feitian Moutai [2][13] - Current prices for 25-year Moutai (original/scattered) are 1870 RMB/1800 RMB, down by 80 RMB/100 RMB from the previous week [2][13] - The Shunwan white liquor index PE-TTM is at 18X, which is considered low compared to the historical average [2][13] Health Products and Snacks - The health products sector is experiencing a growth trend, with a 3.65% increase this week, driven by new consumption trends [20] - The snack sector is expected to benefit from low base effects and new product launches, with companies like Three Squirrels and Salted Fish being highlighted [17][21] Soft Drinks and Beer - The soft drink sector saw a slight decline of 0.6%, with notable performances from brands like Master Kong (+5.4%) and Nongfu Spring (+5.3%) [4][15] - The beer sector declined by 1.9%, but there is optimism for recovery with upcoming consumption policies [4][15] Investment Recommendations - Focus on strong alpha companies in the liquor sector such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai, which are expected to benefit from market consolidation [4][21] - In the consumer goods sector, companies that align with cost reduction and market share growth strategies are recommended, including Li Gao Foods and Nongfu Spring [4][21]

Group 1 - Luzhou Laojiao Co., Ltd. is engaged in the production and sales of liquor, primarily focusing on high-end liquor products such as "Guojiao 1573" and "Luzhou Laojiao" [5][10] - The company reported a revenue of 31.196 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.19%, and a net profit of 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71% from the previous year [5][9] - The company has a registered capital of 1.471 billion yuan and operates in the liquor, beverage, and refined tea manufacturing industry [4][5] Group 2 - The company issued bonds "19 Laojiao 01" and "20 Laojiao 01" with a total fundraising of 4 billion yuan, which has been used for approved projects without any misappropriation [10][11] - The bond "20 Laojiao 01" has a total issuance scale of 1.5 billion yuan with a fixed interest rate of 3.50% [2][3] - The company maintains a good credit status with a total credit line of 41.51 billion yuan from various banks, of which 18.60 billion yuan has been utilized [20][21] Group 3 - The company has implemented a series of measures to ensure timely and full repayment of bond principal and interest, including establishing a special account for bond funds [12][13] - The company has not set up any credit enhancement mechanisms for the bonds, but has established effective debt repayment measures [12][22] - The company has conducted regular disclosures and held bondholder meetings, although some meetings did not reach the required quorum for decision-making [16][22]

行 业 及 产 业 食品饮料 2025 年 05 月 18 日 自下而上 继续关注新品与渠道变 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 《需求整体平淡 关注新品及新渠道变化— —食品饮料行业周报 20250506- 20250509》 2025/05/10 《大众品关注红利与成长，白酒增速回落 分化加剧——食品饮料行业周报 20250428—20250505》 2025/05/05 《板块持仓继续回落 关注新品与渠道共振 机会——食品饮料行业周报 20250421— 20250425》 2025/04/26 联系人 王子昂 (8621)23297818× wangza@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 本期投资提示： 相关研究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 化 看好 —— 食品饮料行业周报 20250512-20250516 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 严泽楠 A02305240 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 | 食品饮料 白酒 Q1 表现稳健，零食领衔食品增长 ——食饮行业周报（2025 年 5 月第 1 期） 投资要点 食饮观点：当前内需配置价值彰显，关注财报较优且基本面势能延续的标 的，新消费继续首推零食，传统消费优选业绩见底有望向上标的。我们维持 此前强调的"在内需避风港钓鱼"观点，并强调该阶段应该重点布局行业龙 头个股；白酒板块 2025 年或为新旧周期转换年，关注基本面业绩较好或公 司改革有望见成效的龙头标的；大众品短期关注零食公司或在山姆等会员店 上架新品的投资机会，关注盐津铺子、甘源食品、有友食品，持续推荐啤酒 饮料旺季备货、零售变革大年和成本周期带来的食饮投资机会。 白酒板块：白酒板块当前仍处低位，且一季报或为全年低点，当前位置持续 推荐，优选品牌势能较强、库存更早出清、目标增速合理的酒企。当前关税 等外部不确定性加剧，以白酒为代表的内需配置价值彰显，政策及地产企稳 催化下或迎白酒结构牛市，推荐攻守兼备两条主线。重视"势能延续"、"低 基数修复"两条主线：①势能延续的确定性：高端酒推荐贵州茅台/五粮液， 次高端及区域酒推荐古井贡酒/山西汾酒/今世缘/迎驾贡酒；②低基数修 ...