十一假期期间，国际现货黄金突破每盎司4000美元关口，甚至一度攀升至每盎司4039.14美元，创历史新高。 受此影响，国内品牌金饰克价突破1150元，本周四，A股市场上以黄金挂钩的ETF也大幅上涨。有色金属 ETF(159871)大涨8.73%。 黄金、股市真的涨疯了！ 为什么有色金属 ETF(159871)大涨？ 有色金属一般被分为贵金属、工业金属、稀有金属和半金属等。有色金属 ETF(159871)跟踪的中证有色指数的主要权重板块为铜、黄金、铝、稀土、锂， 这五大子板块在指数中合计占比近75%。 黄金前面已经介绍过了，在这里不再重复。我们来说说稀土，周四稀土板块也大幅上涨，商务部公告，对稀土相关技术和境外相关稀土物项实施出口管 制。这个事影响不小，将是稀土领域的里程碑事件，市场对稀土涨价的预期非常积极，未来的稀土行业有望出现质更优、价更高的状态。 为什么金价会大涨？ 这与美国政府"停摆"有关。美国政府"停摆"至今还没恢复，威胁到了美元地位，黄金作为美元重要替代物再次受到重视，推动金价走高。 另一个是美联储今年预计还会降息两次。过往中，只要是美联储处在降息周期，金价90%的概率会上升。所以买黄金其实就是看好 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing positive growth, reflected in the strong performance of related ETFs and optimistic market expectations [1] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association forecasts a 6% increase in the industry's added value in the first half of the year, with a 3% rise in the production of ten non-ferrous metals [1] - Investment in mining and green technology is maintaining rapid growth, while copper and aluminum prices are fluctuating at high levels, indicating a robust market environment [1] Group 2 - The cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo is leading to a tightening supply situation, with rising prices expected as inventory levels decrease [2] - In the lithium market, while some producers are reducing output, the overall supply remains high, leading to a continued oversupply situation [2] - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise as supply tightens and demand increases, particularly as inventory levels are consumed [2] Group 3 - The increase in U.S. tariffs is contributing to economic recession risks and heightened credit risks for the dollar, which may drive gold prices higher [3] - Gold prices are stabilizing around $3,000 per ounce, which is expected to enhance the performance and cash flow of gold companies [3] - A-shares in gold stocks, currently near a decade-low valuation, are likely to experience a revaluation due to these market dynamics [3]

Group 1 - The copper industry is experiencing a bullish trend, with leading companies driving the market amid adjustments in the broader stock indices [1] - On March 24, 2025, the copper concept surged, with the China Nonferrous Metals Index reaching a peak increase of 2.07%, and major stocks like Northern Copper and Jiangxi Copper seeing gains of 9.75% and over 4% respectively [1] - The strong performance of the Nonferrous Metals ETF (159871) reflects optimistic market expectations, with an intraday increase of 2.34% [1] Group 2 - The strategic importance of copper is increasing, as U.S. policies highlight its role as a critical metal in future economic development [2] - Rising production costs due to U.S. policies are expected to be passed on to downstream consumers, as copper remains irreplaceable in sectors like power grids and electric vehicles [2] - Chinese copper mining companies are expanding globally, with firms like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum entering the top ten copper mining companies worldwide, contributing to national supply security [2] Group 3 - Future copper prices are projected to rise due to tightening supply and improving demand, with SHFE copper prices at 80,610 RMB/ton and LME prices at 9,852 USD/ton as of March 21 [2] - Global copper concentrate production growth is expected to slow down, maintaining supply tightness, while demand from sectors like air conditioning and stable electricity grid needs in China support price increases [2]