综合看，有色金属板块长期景气趋势延续，建议关注有色金属ETF(159871)把握结构性机会。 风险提示：股市有风险，投资需谨慎 消息面上，国际贵金属价格持续走强，1 月 9 日数据显示 COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.48%，报 4483.30 美元 / 盎司，延续此前创纪录后的高位态势。国内有色金属市场同步发力，2025 年年末国内铜现货（电解 铜）价格已突破 100000 元 / 吨关口，为板块注入强劲动力。2026 年长单签订博弈进入白热化，国内提 价潮、外贸溢价攀升、铜精矿加工费低位僵持等现象集中出现，反映市场对供需格局的乐观预判，预示 2026 年铜价或开启新一轮上涨行情。 供给与需求端共振强化板块景气度。全球地缘政治局势紧张，叠加市场对流动性宽松的预期，推动避险 资金持续涌入贵金属市场。有色金属作为工业核心原材料，需求端受益于多领域发展：铜在电力设备、 新能源汽车、数据中心等领域应用广泛，随着国内先进制造业推进、商业航天等新兴产业落地，需求持 续旺盛；白银在光伏、电子等领域的工业用途不断拓展，进一步打开消费空间。同时，国内商品期货市 场显示，近期碳酸锂、焦煤等相关品种同步上涨，带动有色金属板块整体情绪 ...

12月26日下午，沪深两市震荡上行，盘面上，贵金属板块集体拉升。截至13点50分，有色金属 ETF(159871)涨3.92%，永兴材料、江西铜业、国城矿业涨停10%，中矿资源涨超8%，紫金矿业等涨超 4%！ 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 资讯所属栏目还有更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 华创证券2026年度投资策略认为，黄金方面，央行购金支撑黄金长期需求，中国央行黄金储备仍有上行 空间;降息周期助推投资金需求走强。 白银方面，供需持续有缺口&国内低库存支撑，银价上涨弹性 强。投资建议上面建议看好逆全球化下美元信用走弱带来的贵金属长期配置价值。 综合看，有色金属板块长期景气趋势延续，建议关注有色金属ETF(159871)把握结构性机会。 消息面上，12月26日，国际现货金、银价格再创历史新高。自12月25日夜盘时段起，贵金属价格再度强 势走高，并一直延续到12月26日亚洲时段开盘。现货黄金（伦敦金现）一度触及每盎司4531.284美元的 创纪录高位。现货白银（伦敦银现）连续突破每盎司73美元、74美元和75美元关口，最高触及75.142美 元/盎司。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals sector is experiencing a significant rally, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, with market pricing reflecting over 86% probability of a rate decrease [1][2]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - The precious metals sector saw a collective surge, with the non-ferrous metal ETF (159871) rising by 2.77% and silver reaching its daily limit up of 10% [1]. - COMEX gold increased by 4.77% and COMEX silver surged by 14.95% over the past week, indicating strong upward momentum in precious metal prices [2]. Group 2: Market Influences - The Federal Reserve has entered a quiet period before its meeting, with no significant macroeconomic data expected to alter the anticipated policy path, leading to a consensus that the December rate cut decision is "locked in" [1]. - Economic data releases have prompted some Federal Reserve officials to signal a potential rate cut in December, supporting the rebound in precious metal prices [1]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The long-term trend for the non-ferrous metals sector remains positive, with recommendations to focus on the non-ferrous metal ETF (159871) for structural opportunities [3]. - The ongoing process of de-dollarization is expected to continue, suggesting that investors should hold onto low-positioned assets despite market volatility [2].

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - International spot gold prices have surged, breaking the $4000 per ounce mark, reaching a historical high of $4039.14 per ounce during the holiday period [2] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also increased, with the price per gram exceeding 1150 yuan, and gold-linked ETFs in the A-share market have seen significant gains [3] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to the U.S. government shutdown, which threatens the dollar's status, making gold a more attractive alternative [4] - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for gold prices, expecting them to rise from $4300 to $4900 per ounce by December 2026 [4] Group 2: Central Bank and Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the 11th consecutive month, holding 74.06 million ounces of gold as of the end of September, an increase of 40,000 ounces from the previous month [5] - The expectation of two more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year is likely to support further increases in gold prices [6] Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals and Market Trends - The non-ferrous metals ETF (159871) has seen a significant increase of 8.73%, driven by strong performances in key sectors such as copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium, which together account for nearly 75% of the index [3][7] - The announcement of export controls on rare earth-related technologies is expected to positively impact the rare earth sector, leading to higher prices and improved quality in the industry [7] - Copper prices are projected to rise, with Goldman Sachs increasing its forecast from $10,000 to $10,500 per ton by 2026, driven by demand from AI and data centers [7] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 3900 points, reaching a 10-year high, with expectations of further upward movement towards 4000 points [8] - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to generate more investment opportunities and enhance market sentiment, potentially leading to significant profit-making effects [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing positive growth, reflected in the strong performance of related ETFs and optimistic market expectations [1] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association forecasts a 6% increase in the industry's added value in the first half of the year, with a 3% rise in the production of ten non-ferrous metals [1] - Investment in mining and green technology is maintaining rapid growth, while copper and aluminum prices are fluctuating at high levels, indicating a robust market environment [1] Group 2 - The cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo is leading to a tightening supply situation, with rising prices expected as inventory levels decrease [2] - In the lithium market, while some producers are reducing output, the overall supply remains high, leading to a continued oversupply situation [2] - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise as supply tightens and demand increases, particularly as inventory levels are consumed [2] Group 3 - The increase in U.S. tariffs is contributing to economic recession risks and heightened credit risks for the dollar, which may drive gold prices higher [3] - Gold prices are stabilizing around $3,000 per ounce, which is expected to enhance the performance and cash flow of gold companies [3] - A-shares in gold stocks, currently near a decade-low valuation, are likely to experience a revaluation due to these market dynamics [3]

Group 1 - The copper industry is experiencing a bullish trend, with leading companies driving the market amid adjustments in the broader stock indices [1] - On March 24, 2025, the copper concept surged, with the China Nonferrous Metals Index reaching a peak increase of 2.07%, and major stocks like Northern Copper and Jiangxi Copper seeing gains of 9.75% and over 4% respectively [1] - The strong performance of the Nonferrous Metals ETF (159871) reflects optimistic market expectations, with an intraday increase of 2.34% [1] Group 2 - The strategic importance of copper is increasing, as U.S. policies highlight its role as a critical metal in future economic development [2] - Rising production costs due to U.S. policies are expected to be passed on to downstream consumers, as copper remains irreplaceable in sectors like power grids and electric vehicles [2] - Chinese copper mining companies are expanding globally, with firms like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum entering the top ten copper mining companies worldwide, contributing to national supply security [2] Group 3 - Future copper prices are projected to rise due to tightening supply and improving demand, with SHFE copper prices at 80,610 RMB/ton and LME prices at 9,852 USD/ton as of March 21 [2] - Global copper concentrate production growth is expected to slow down, maintaining supply tightness, while demand from sectors like air conditioning and stable electricity grid needs in China support price increases [2]