Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating weakly [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak [2] - Rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Weak [2] - Soda ash: Weak [2] - CSI 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [4] - Treasury bonds (2-year, 5-year, 10-year): Oscillating, consolidating [4] - Gold and silver: Oscillating strongly [4][6] - Logs: Oscillating at the bottom [6] - Pulp and offset paper: Oscillating [6] - Edible oils (soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil): Range-bound [7] - Meal (soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.2): Oscillating weakly [7] - Live pigs: Weak [9] - Rubber: Oscillating weakly [11] - PX: Widely oscillating [11] - PTA: Oscillating [11] - MEG: Weakly oscillating [11] - PR and PF: On the sidelines [11] Core Views - The iron ore market features loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation, with prices expected to oscillate weakly. The coal and coke market has short - term supply pressure, but there is support at the bottom. The steel market is in a bottom - oscillating state, and the price depends on production reduction and policy implementation. The glass market is weak, and its price depends on cold - repair progress and macro factors [2]. - The financial market shows a mixed trend. Stock index futures/options are oscillating, and treasury bonds are in a state of consolidation or small - scale rebound. The precious metals market is supported by factors such as central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks, with prices oscillating strongly [4]. - The light industry market, including logs and pulp, is in a process of supply - demand re - balancing, with prices expected to oscillate. The edible oils and meals market has uncertain demand prospects, and prices are expected to range - bound or oscillate weakly [6][7]. - The agricultural product market, represented by live pigs, has stable supply but limited terminal demand growth, with prices expected to decline. The soft commodity market, such as rubber, has weak demand and increasing inventory, with prices oscillating weakly. The polyester market has complex supply - demand situations, and prices show different trends such as oscillation, weak oscillation, and waiting - and - seeing [9][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current demand is weak, and prices oscillate weakly. After the inventory replenishment and sentiment boost, short - selling opportunities can be sought based on high inventory and surplus expectations [2]. - Coking coal and coke: In November, Mongolian coal imports may reach a new high this year, and there is short - term supply pressure. After the first round of coke price cuts in December, there are still expectations of further cuts. Although there is support at the bottom, the market is weak [2]. - Rebar: Downstream demand is low, and it is in an oscillating state. The key lies in steel demand, and steel prices depend on production reduction and policy implementation [2]. - Glass: The price is weak, with low processing orders and high inventory. Whether it can stop falling depends on cold - repair progress and macro factors [2]. Financial - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day showed a decline, and the market is oscillating. High - tech industries continue to grow, and market sentiment is rising [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds has declined, and the market is in a state of consolidation or small - scale rebound [4]. - Precious metals: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting, and it is supported by factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical demand in China. Silver is also affected by similar factors, and both are expected to oscillate strongly [4][6]. Light Industry - Logs: Port shipments have increased, but demand improvement needs to be observed. Supply pressure may gradually ease, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - Pulp: The spot price is stable, but demand is weak. The cost supports the price, and it is expected to oscillate [6]. - Double - gum paper: The price is stable, with stable supply and some support from orders, but weak social demand restricts price increases, and it is expected to oscillate [6]. Oils and Fats - Edible oils: The demand for soybean oil has uncertainties, palm oil production and exports are complex, and domestic oil supply is abundant. With cost support, prices are expected to range - bound [7]. - Meals: The global soybean inventory is abundant, and the demand for US soybeans is uncertain. Domestic supply is ample, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [7]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average transaction weight shows a north - rising and south - falling trend, terminal demand growth is limited, and prices are expected to decline. The slaughter rate has increased, and the profit situation varies [9]. Soft Commodities and Polyester - Rubber: Production in some regions is affected by weather, demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [11]. - Polyester: PX prices are widely oscillating, PTA prices follow the cost, MEG prices are weakly oscillating, and PR and PF markets are on the sidelines [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rolled steel: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Logs: Weak oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Weak oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Range operation [6] - Palm oil: Range operation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Range operation [6] - Soybean meal: Rebound [6] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [6] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [8] - Soybean No. 1: Rebound [8] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a slight upward trend [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: On the sidelines [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Report's Core Views - The macro利好 has landed, and black prices are returning to fundamentals. The iron ore market has an oversupply situation, and the coal and coke market is affected by policies and supply concerns. The steel market's price stop depends on production cuts and anti-"involution" policies. The glass market has inventory pressure and weak demand. The financial market has different trends for various indexes, and the precious metal market is affected by multiple factors such as central bank purchases and geopolitical risks. The light industry and agricultural product markets have their own supply and demand characteristics, and the soft commodity and polyester markets also face different situations [2][4][6][8][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: The main line is "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation." The supply has room for impulse, and the demand is weak due to the low level of real estate new construction. Follow-up attention should be paid to four main lines that may trigger price revaluation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Driven by multiple news, the price has risen. The market is concerned about demand-side policies, and the core contradiction lies in the low profit level of steel mills [2] - Rolled steel: The price is affected by the demand for steel, and the stop of the decline depends on production cuts and policy implementation [2] - Glass: There are contradictions in the market, with weak demand and increasing inventory pressure. The solution depends on reducing the daily melting volume and the support of policies [2] Financial Market - Stock index futures/options: Different indexes have different trends, and the market is short-term consolidated with increasing bullish sentiment [4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has declined, and the market has a slight upward trend. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism is changing, and it is affected by multiple factors such as central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [4] Light Industry - Logs: The supply is increasing seasonally, while the demand is weakening. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [6] - Pulp: The cost support is weakening, and the demand is poor. The price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6] - Offset paper: There is supply pressure, and the demand has not improved. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [6] Oil and Fat - Oils: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The overall is expected to continue range operation [6] - Meal: Supported by trade optimism and the rise of US soybean futures, it is expected to rebound in the short term [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The trading average weight may increase slightly, and the settlement price may rise. The market is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [8] Soft Commodities and Polyester - Rubber: The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is improving. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate widely [10] - PX: The trade dispute risk is weakening, and the price follows the oil price [10] - PTA: The cost support is weakened, and the supply and demand are marginally improved. The price follows the cost [10] - MEG: The supply is at a high level, and the demand is worrying. The price is suppressed by the inventory pressure [10] - PR: The market may oscillate weakly [10] - PF: The market may be sorted narrowly [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Stock index futures/options: Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, and CSI 500 index futures are expected to oscillate, while CSI 1000 index futures are expected to rebound [2][4] - Treasury bonds: 2 - year and 5 - year treasury bonds are expected to oscillate, and 10 - year treasury bonds are expected to rise [4] - Gold and silver: High - level oscillation [4] - Logs: Weak oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Weak oscillation [6] - Oils and fats: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Meal: Rebound [6][7] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a slight upward trend [7] - Rubber: Oscillation [9] - PX: Wait - and - see [9] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG, PR, PF: Wait - and - see [9] Core Viewpoints - The macro - environment is generally warming up, with Sino - US talks and the Fed's potential interest rate cut boosting risk appetite, leading to a rebound in commodity prices at low levels. However, different industries face different supply - demand situations and price trends [2][4]. - The iron ore market has an oversupply situation with high supply and low demand, and the price is mainly affected by factors such as policies, steel mill profits, and terminal demand [2]. - The coking coal and coke market is affected by macro - policy expectations and industry supply concerns, and the core contradiction lies in the low profit level of steel mills [2]. - The steel market has weak domestic demand, and the price stop - falling depends on production reduction and anti - "involution" policies [2]. - The glass market has weak demand and increasing inventory pressure, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term [2]. - The stock index futures/options market has a short - term consolidation with rising bullish sentiment, and it is recommended to hold long positions [4]. - The treasury bond market shows a slight upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. - The gold market is affected by factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies, and is expected to oscillate at a high level [4]. - The log market has increasing supply pressure and weakening demand, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [6]. - The pulp market has weak cost support and poor demand, and the price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - The oils and fats market has sufficient supply and weak demand, and is expected to continue wide - range oscillation [6]. - The meal market is affected by weather and supply - demand factors, and is expected to rebound in the short term [6][7]. - The live pig market has sufficient supply, increasing demand, and is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [7]. - The rubber market has mixed supply and demand factors, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [9]. - The PX, PTA, and polyester - related product markets are affected by factors such as oil prices and supply - demand, and different products have different price trends [9]. Summary by Industry Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: The supply is expected to remain high as Rio Tinto and VALE have room for production increases to meet annual targets, and port arrivals are likely to stay at a high level. The demand is weak, with iron - water production declining and real - estate new construction at a low level. The market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is mainly affected by policies, steel mill profits, and terminal demand [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Driven by macro - policy expectations, the market is concerned about potential demand - side policies. The industry is facing supply concerns, and the core contradiction is the low profit level of steel mills. If steel products continue to weaken, steel mill overhauls may expand, putting pressure on raw materials. The second - round coke price increase has been implemented, and short - term attention should be paid to the resonance of macro and industry expectations [2]. - **Rebar**: The macro - environment is warming up, but the domestic demand for steel is weak, with real - estate new construction at a low level. The price stop - falling depends on whether production reduction of more than 5% can be strictly implemented in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the intensity of anti - "involution" policies. The steel market still has supply - demand contradictions and is expected to continue oscillating [2]. Building Materials - **Glass**: The current market has weak shipments and a strong price - cut atmosphere. The demand is weak, with real - estate completion declining during the peak season, and the inventory of glass factories is increasing. To solve the over - supply problem in the entire industry chain, the daily melting volume of glass needs to drop to about 154,000 tons by the end of the year. The price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro and production - reduction policies [2]. Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indices, with some sectors showing capital inflows and outflows. The market is in short - term consolidation with rising bullish sentiment, and it is recommended to hold long positions [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds has declined, and the central bank has carried out reverse - repurchase operations. The market trend is slightly upward, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. - **Gold and silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central - bank gold purchases. It is affected by factors such as currency, finance, risk - aversion, and commodity attributes. The current market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and gold is expected to oscillate at a high level [4]. Forestry Products - **Logs**: The port daily shipment volume has increased, but the downstream is entering the off - season, and demand may weaken. The import volume is seasonally increasing, putting pressure on supply. The port inventory is expected to turn to accumulation. The spot - market price is running weakly, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [6]. - **Pulp**: The spot - market price is relatively stable. The cost support for pulp prices is weakening, and the demand from paper mills is poor. The price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - **Offset paper**: The spot - market price is relatively stable. There is still supply pressure due to new production capacity in South China. The start - up rate has rebounded, but the market expectation is cautious. The price is expected to be weakly oscillating [6]. Oils and Fats and Meals - **Oils and fats**: The US government shutdown has led to a lack of official data. The high inventory of palm oil in Malaysia is suppressing the market. The production of palm oil is at the end of the increasing season, and the export volume varies. The demand for biodiesel in Indonesia is strong, and the inventory of US soybean oil has decreased. The domestic supply of oils and fats is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to continue wide - range oscillation [6]. - **Meals**: The weather in the US Midwest may delay crop harvesting, and the weather in Brazil is favorable for soybean sowing but the sowing rate is low. The La Nina phenomenon brings uncertainties to South American soybean growth. The domestic supply of soybean meal is increasing, and the demand is also rising. The price is expected to rebound in the short term [6][7]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs has increased slightly. The demand has weakened, and the slaughter volume has decreased, leading to a decline in pig prices to near the cost line. The price has rebounded, and the fat - to - standard pig price difference has widened. The demand for pork is increasing with the drop in temperature, and the price is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [7]. Soft Commodities and Chemicals - **Rubber**: The raw - material output in Yunnan is gradually recovering, but the profit from rubber tapping is negative. The output in Hainan is lower than expected, but the cost of local processing plants has decreased. The price of cup rubber in Thailand has risen, and the inventory in Vietnam is low. The demand from tire enterprises has increased, and the inventory of natural rubber is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate widely [9]. - **PX, PTA, and Polyester - related Products**: The PX market has short - term supply - demand growth but medium - term pressure. The PTA market has a weakening supply - demand situation and uncertain cost support. Different polyester products have different price trends affected by factors such as supply, demand, and raw - material prices [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar and rolled steel: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Rebounding [2] - Soda ash: Adjusting [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Rebounding [4] - Gold: High - level oscillation [4] - Silver: High - level oscillation [4] - Logs: Range - bound oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Bearish outlook [6] - Edible oils: Wide - range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: On the sidelines [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] 2. Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut has landed as expected, and after the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to reality. Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends [2][4]. - Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and the US economic situation affect its price [4]. - Various factors such as supply - demand, policies, and seasonal factors impact the prices of commodities in different industries [2][5][6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Overseas supply decreased slightly but remained at a high level in recent years. Port arrivals increased, demand rebounded, and the 2601 contract adjusted at a high level [2]. - Coking coal and coke: As the double - festival replenishment period approaches, procurement enthusiasm increased. Supply may be weaker than last year, and the futures market rebounded [2]. - Rebar and rolled steel: Data met expectations, production increased slightly, demand was lackluster, and the 2601 contract oscillated with a bullish bias [2]. - Glass: Enterprises raised prices, short - term price increases may stimulate downstream replenishment, and demand improved slightly, but the long - term real estate adjustment continued [2]. Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: Different stock indices showed different trends, with some sectors having capital inflows and others outflows [2]. - Treasury bonds: Yields and market interest rates fluctuated, and the market was affected by factors such as central bank operations [4]. - Gold and silver: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and factors such as geopolitical risks, the US economic situation, and central bank gold purchases affect their prices [4]. Light Industry - Logs: Supply tightened, inventory decreased, cost support weakened, and prices were expected to oscillate in a range [6]. - Pulp: Spot prices were divided, cost support increased, but demand was weak, and prices were expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - Offset paper: Production was stable, demand was weak during the off - season, and the industry was bearish [6]. Oils and Fats - Oils: Palm oil inventory increased, production decreased due to disasters, and demand from India increased. Domestic oil supply was abundant, and prices were expected to oscillate widely [5]. - Meal: US soybean production increased, export demand was weak, and domestic supply was abundant, with prices expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Average transaction weight increased, supply was abundant, demand was weak, and prices were expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply pressure decreased in some areas, demand increased slightly, inventory decreased, and prices were expected to oscillate widely [10]. - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: PX had supply risks, PTA's cost support might weaken, and their prices followed cost fluctuations. MEG had supply pressure, and PR and PF were expected to trade flatly [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oscillating Weakly**: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, live pigs, cotton (medium - term), sugar (long - term) [2][7][12][18][19] - **Oscillating**: Corn, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, synthetic rubber, cotton (short - term), paper pulp, offset paper, logs [11][15][16][18][20][22][23] - **Weak Market Sentiment**: Fats and oils [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: With the harvest of US soybeans and the increase in Argentine supply, the domestic supply pressure is dominant, and both are expected to oscillate weakly. Long positions from the previous period can take profits and then wait and see [2][7]. - **Fats and Oils**: Market sentiment remains weak. The harvest of US soybeans is progressing, but the good - quality rate is declining. The export tax on soybeans and their derivatives in Argentina has been temporarily cancelled. The inventory of domestic soybean oil may peak, the inventory build - up of Malaysian palm oil in September may be limited, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory may continue to decline [5]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the market faces the pressure of new grain listing, and prices may continue to decline. In the long term, it is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish, with an oscillating outlook [11]. - **Live Pigs**: The purchase and sale are smooth, but the price is at a low level. In the short term, the supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure. In the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy is implemented, the supply pressure in 2026 will weaken [12]. - **Natural Rubber**: Before the holiday, positions are continuously reduced. It is recommended to wait and see. It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [15]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market will maintain an oscillating pattern within a range [16]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, there may be a certain support around 13,500 yuan/ton, and there may be a rebound. In the medium term, due to the expected increase in production, it is expected to oscillate weakly [18]. - **Sugar**: In the long term, it is expected to oscillate weakly due to the expected abundant supply in the new season. In the short term, the price has stopped falling and rebounded [19]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating pattern, and the 01 contract may face downward pressure [20]. - **Offset Paper**: The downstream orders are weak, and the market contradiction is not prominent. It is recommended to operate within the range of 4,100 - 4,400 yuan in the short - term [22]. - **Logs**: The spot price is stable, and the market is expected to oscillate around 800 yuan in the short term [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fats and Oils - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, US soybeans and soybean oil rebounded slightly due to technical buying, and domestic fats and oils oscillated weakly. The US dollar weakened slightly, and crude oil prices rose [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The harvest of US soybeans is progressing normally, but the good - quality rate is declining. The production and consumption of US biodiesel have decreased year - on - year. Argentina has cancelled the export tax on soybeans and their derivatives. The inventory of domestic soybean oil may peak, the inventory build - up of Malaysian palm oil in September may be limited, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory may continue to decline [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil and palm oil are expected to oscillate weakly, and rapeseed oil is expected to oscillate [5]. 3.2 Protein Meals - **Market Information**: On September 24, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes increased, and the average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing decreased [7]. - **Industry Situation**: Argentina has cancelled all grain export tariffs, and the China - Canada trade relationship may improve. Internationally, the supply of US soybeans is increasing, and the export price of Argentine soybeans is decreasing. Domestically, the import volume of soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil from Argentina is expected to increase, and the supply may continue to be high. The demand for soybean meal may increase steadily, and rapeseed meal is expected to follow the trend of soybean meal [7]. - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and then wait and see [2][7]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Market Information**: The average price of domestic corn is 2,350 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main contract is 2,158 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [8][10]. - **Industry Situation**: The price of domestic corn varies in different regions. The supply of new grain in the Northeast is under pressure, and the price is stable or weak. The arrival volume in North China is low, and the price is strong. The port demand is weak, and the price is stable or weak. The new grain in Jilin, Inner Mongolia, and western Heilongjiang has not been listed, and the new grain in eastern Heilongjiang has a high opening price. North China has been affected by continuous rainfall, and the arrival of wet grain is insufficient. Argentina has cancelled the export tax on corn, which may have a limited impact [11]. - **Outlook**: Corn is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling on rebounds and reverse arbitrage opportunities [11]. 3.4 Live Pigs - **Market Information**: On September 24, the spot price of live pigs in Henan was 12.79 yuan/kg, down 0.23%, and the closing price of the live pig futures active contract was 12,730 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [12]. - **Industry Situation**: Affected by typhoons in Guangdong, some enterprises have reduced production. The cost of breeding is expected to decrease due to Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs. In the short term, the supply of live pigs is abundant, and in the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy is implemented, the supply pressure in 2026 will weaken [12]. - **Outlook**: Live pigs are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities [12]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of natural rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone has increased, and the export of natural rubber from Thailand from January to August has decreased year - on - year [13][14]. - **Industry Situation**: The rubber price has maintained a narrow - range oscillation pattern. The fundamentals are currently strong, but there is an expectation of increased supply in the fourth quarter. The downstream pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the overall demand is not expected to change significantly [15]. - **Outlook**: Natural rubber is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern within a range. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [15]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Market Information**: The spot price of butadiene rubber and the domestic spot price of butadiene have increased [16]. - **Industry Situation**: The BR market first rose and then fell, and the absolute price remained basically unchanged. There are expectations of many device overhauls from September to November, and the price is at a low level since listing. The raw material butadiene has a certain support on the supply side, but the downstream demand is weak [16][17]. - **Outlook**: Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [16]. 3.7 Cotton - **Market Information**: As of September 24, the number of registered warehouse receipts for the 24/25 season was 3,716, and the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton 01 was 13,555 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [17]. - **Industry Situation**: The output of Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase significantly in the new season. The inventory structure is currently tight in the near - term and loose in the long - term. The demand has improved seasonally, but the sustainability is in doubt [17][18]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, there may be a certain support around 13,500 yuan/ton, and there may be a rebound. In the medium term, due to the expected increase in production, it is expected to oscillate weakly [18]. 3.8 Sugar - **Market Information**: As of September 24, the closing price of Zhengzhou sugar 01 was 5,497 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton [19]. - **Industry Situation**: Recently, Zhengzhou sugar has continued to decline and then rebounded. The international trade flow is abundant, and the domestic consumption in August is average. The supply of the global sugar market is expected to be abundant in the 25/26 season [19]. - **Outlook**: In the long term, sugar is expected to oscillate weakly. In the short term, the price has stopped falling and rebounded [19]. 3.9 Paper Pulp - **Market Information**: The price of domestic paper pulp varies, with the price of Russian pine needles in Shandong at 5,100 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [19]. - **Industry Situation**: The paper pulp futures have been oscillating at a low level. The 09 contract has completed delivery, and the US dollar price of softwood pulp is expected to decline. The paper market has some changes, but the impact is not strong. The fundamentals of paper pulp are still weakly guided [20]. - **Outlook**: Paper pulp is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. 3.10 Offset Paper - **Market Information**: The market price of offset paper has remained stable, and the market is waiting and seeing [22]. - **Industry Situation**: The production of large - scale paper mills is basically stable, and the production enthusiasm of some small and medium - sized paper mills is average. The downstream printing factory orders are weak, and the market confidence is insufficient. The supply and demand have no obvious contradiction in the short term [22]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to operate within the range of 4,100 - 4,400 yuan in the short - term [22]. 3.11 Logs - **Market Information**: The spot price of logs is stable, and the inventory has decreased [23]. - **Industry Situation**: The market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectations. The fundamentals have improved marginally, but there is no strong upward driving force. The delivery logic has a negative impact on the market [23]. - **Outlook**: The log market is expected to oscillate around 800 yuan in the short term [23].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Rebounding [2] - Soda ash: Adjusting [2] - CSI 500: Rebounding [3] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [3] - 10-year Treasury bonds: Rebounding [3] - Gold: Bullish [3] - Silver: Bullish [3] - Logs: Range-bound [4] - Pulp: Consolidating at the bottom [4] - Offset paper: Bearish [4] - Edible oils: Oscillating with a bearish bias [4] - Meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [4] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [6] - Rubber: Oscillating [9] - PX: Hold for observation [9] - PTA: Oscillating [9] - MEG: Hold for observation [9] - PR: Hold for observation [9] - PF: Bullish [9] Core Viewpoints - The trading focus after the National Day will gradually shift to the reality. The fundamentals of various commodities have different characteristics, and their prices will show different trends under the influence of supply, demand, cost, and other factors [2]. - In the financial market, the stock index and bond market are affected by policies and economic data, showing a volatile trend. The price of precious metals is driven by factors such as central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Overseas supply has declined slightly, but the arrival volume at 47 ports has increased. The demand has rebounded, and the steel mills' profit ratio has declined. The short-term fundamentals have limited contradictions, and the contract is undergoing a high-level adjustment [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: The coal mine shutdown news and the "anti-involution" expectation have promoted the rebound of the double-coke futures. The supply of coking coal is expected to be weaker than last year, and the demand has rebounded. The double-coke shows an oscillating and bullish trend [2]. - **Rebar and hot-rolled coils**: The production of finished products has declined slightly, the supply remains relatively high, the apparent demand has increased slightly, and the inventory pressure has continued to increase. The total demand is difficult to show a counter-seasonal performance, and the price is oscillating [2]. - **Glass**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has called on the industry to raise prices, and the short-term price increase may drive downstream restocking. The supply is stable, the demand has improved slightly, and the price is oscillating and bullish before the festival [2]. - **Soda ash**: The price is adjusting, and the long-term real estate industry is still in an adjustment cycle [2]. Financial Sector - **Stock index futures/options**: The market is oscillating. The State Council Premier's speech and the Ministry of Commerce's statement have an impact on the market. It is recommended to control risk preferences and maintain the current position of long stock index [3]. - **Treasury bonds**: The market interest rate is fluctuating, and the bond trend is weak. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [3]. - **Precious metals**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and factors such as central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies drive the price. The price of gold and silver is expected to remain bullish [3]. Light Industry - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume has decreased, the supply is tight, the cost support has weakened, and the price is expected to range-bound [4]. - **Pulp**: The spot price is stable, the cost support has increased, the demand improvement expectation remains to be verified, and the price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [4]. - **Offset paper**: The production is relatively stable, the demand is in the off-season, the supply-demand contradiction is prominent, and the price is bearish [4]. Oil and Fat Sector - **Edible oils**: The production of Malaysian palm oil has increased, the inventory has increased, the export is weak, the demand for soybean oil is uncertain, and the supply of domestic oils is abundant. The price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [4]. - **Meal**: The yield of US soybeans has increased, the export demand is weak, the domestic supply pressure is significant, and the price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [4]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight has increased, the supply is abundant, the demand is weak, the price is oscillating and bullish in the short term, and the slaughter rate is expected to decline and then stabilize [6]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply pressure has decreased, the demand has improved, the inventory has declined, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [9]. - **PX**: There are potential supply risks, the supply-demand margin has improved slightly, and the price follows the oil price [9]. - **PTA**: The cost provides support, the supply and demand have both increased, and the price follows the cost [9]. - **MEG**: The port inventory has increased slightly, the supply pressure has increased, and the price is affected by the cost [9]. - **PR**: The cost has increased, the supply has decreased, and the market trading atmosphere may be limited [9]. - **PF**: The factory inventory is not high, the international oil price has risen, and the market is expected to be bullish [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Adjusting [2] - Soda ash: Adjusting [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Oscillating [3] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebounding [3] - Gold: Bullish [3] - Silver: Bullish [3] - Logs: Range-bound [5] - Pulp: Consolidating at the bottom [5] - Offset paper: Bearish [5] - Edible oils: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [9] - PX: On the sidelines [9] - PTA: Oscillating [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented as expected, and after the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to the real economy [2][3] - The supply of overseas iron ore has declined slightly, but the total global iron ore shipments are still at a relatively high level in recent years, and the demand for iron ore has rebounded [2] - The coal mine shutdown news and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" have jointly promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke futures [2] - The real estate investment continues to decline, and the total demand is difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance, forming a pattern of high in the first half and low in the second half [2] - The overall glass supply remains stable, and the demand has limited growth, with a loose fundamental pattern [2] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional focus on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases, and the price is expected to remain bullish [3] - The supply of logs is tightening, and the cost support is weakening, with the price expected to range-bound [5] - The pulp price is expected to consolidate at the bottom, and the offset paper market is bearish [5] - The supply pressure of edible oils is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [5] - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5] - The average trading weight of live pigs is rising, and the price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term [7] - The natural rubber price is expected to oscillate widely, and the PX and PTA prices will follow the cost fluctuations [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments decreased by 2.483 million tons to 33.248 million tons, but the 47-port iron ore arrivals increased by 3.581 million tons to 27.504 million tons. The daily average pig iron output rebounded slightly, driving up the demand for iron ore. The steel mills' profit ratio declined, but the motivation for active production cuts was still insufficient, with inventory replenishment expected before the festival. The iron ore 2601 contract broke through the previous high and showed an oscillating and bullish trend [2] - Coking coal and coke: The shutdown news of coal mines and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke futures. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year in the second half of the year, and the demand for coking coal and coke has rebounded with the arrival of the peak season. An individual coking enterprise in Inner Mongolia initiated the first round of coke price increase. The price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar: The Fed's interest rate cut and the coal mine shutdown news, along with the "anti-involution" expectation, promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke, which in turn drove up the rebar price. The output of finished steel decreased slightly, but the supply remained at a relatively high level. The total demand was difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance, and the rebar 2601 contract is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term, with attention paid to the inventory performance [2] - Glass: The glass supply remained stable, and the demand had limited growth. The downstream deep-processing factory orders increased slightly, but the demand increment was limited. The coal-to-gas conversion in Shahe may cause short-term fluctuations in the market. The key for the 01 contract lies in the cold repair path, and attention should be paid to the pre-festival inventory replenishment [2] Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock indexes showed different performances. The computer hardware and precious metals sectors had capital inflows, while the catering and tourism and soft drink sectors had capital outflows. The market rebounded, and it is recommended to control the risk preference and maintain the current long position of stock indexes [3] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond and FR007 increased by 1bp, and SHIBOR3M remained flat. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the market interest rate fluctuated. The Treasury bond price showed a weakening trend, and it is recommended to hold a light long position [3] - Gold and silver: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and the price is affected by central bank gold purchases, currency, finance, and geopolitical factors. The interest rate policy of the Fed and geopolitical conflicts are the main influencing factors. The price of gold and silver is expected to remain bullish, with attention paid to Powell's speech and PCE data [3] Light Industry - Logs: The daily average port shipments of logs decreased, and the supply from New Zealand declined. The port inventory decreased, and the cost support weakened. The price is expected to range-bound [5] - Pulp: The spot market price of pulp was stable, and the cost support increased. However, the papermaking industry's profitability was low, and the paper mills' inventory pressure was high, with the price expected to consolidate at the bottom [5] - Offset paper: The spot market price of offset paper declined. The production was relatively stable, but it was in the downstream seasonal off-season, and the demand was poor. The industry was in a stage of overcapacity, and the price was expected to be bearish [5] Oil and Fat Industry - Edible oils: The production of Malaysian palm oil increased slightly in August, and the inventory increased by 4.18% to 2.2 million tons. The supply pressure of domestic soybean oil increased, and the price of edible oils is expected to oscillate widely, with attention paid to the weather in the US soybean-producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [5] - Soybean meal: The US soybean yield increased, but the export demand was weak, and the domestic supply was abundant. The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias, with attention paid to the US soybean weather and soybean arrivals [5] Agricultural Products Industry - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs increased, and the supply was relatively abundant. The terminal consumption market was sluggish, and the slaughtering enterprise's开工 rate declined. The price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term, with the support of the pre-festival inventory replenishment demand [7] Soft Commodities Industry - Natural rubber: The supply pressure in Yunnan decreased, and the production in Hainan was lower than expected. The demand for tires increased, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to oscillate widely [9] - PX and PTA: The PX supply was in surplus, and the price followed the oil price fluctuations. The PTA supply and demand both increased, but the overall supply-demand margin weakened, and the price followed the cost fluctuations [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore - high - level shock; Coal and coke - shock; Rolled steel and screw steel - weak; Glass - shock; Soda ash - shock [2] - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai Composite 50 - shock; CSI 300 - upward; CSI 500 - upward; CSI 1000 - upward; 2 - year treasury bond - shock; 5 - year treasury bond - shock; 10 - year treasury bond - rebound; Gold - high - level shock; Silver - high - level shock [2][3][4] - **Light Industry**: Logs - range shock; Pulp - weak consolidation; Offset paper - bearish; Edible oils - wide - range shock; Oilseeds and meals - shock; Live pigs - shock and slightly stronger; Rubber - shock; PX - wait - and - see; PTA - shock; MEG - wait - and - see; PR - wait - and - see; PF - shock and consolidation [6][7][10] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple industries including black, financial, light industries, etc. It provides investment ratings and detailed analyses of the supply - demand relationships, price trends, and influencing factors for each product in these industries, guiding investors to make decisions based on the current market situation and future trends [2][4][6] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The Guinean government's requirements boost market sentiment. The daily average pig iron output has recovered to 240,000 tons. Global iron ore shipments have decreased significantly, mainly due to the sharp decline in Brazilian shipments. There is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure, and the short - term fundamentals have limited contradictions. Attention should be paid to whether the 2601 contract can stand firm at the previous high [2] - **Coal and coke**: The purchase price of coke by mainstream steel mills has been lowered. The fundamentals are weakening, with continuous inventory accumulation of steel and coal mines and weakening downstream orders. Supply is increasing, while demand has recovered slightly. The short - term sentiment in the black sector has cooled, and coal and coke show a low - level shock trend [2] - **Rolled steel and screw steel**: The fundamentals are weak. The steel industry's stable - growth policy does not restrict steel production, so supply remains high. The demand for building materials has declined, and the total demand is hard to reverse seasonally, showing a pattern of high in the front and low in the back. Profits have declined, and the 2601 contract of screw steel is running weakly below the 60 - day line [2] - **Glass**: The news of coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe may cause short - term fluctuations in the market. The cost of production lines will increase. The spot in Hubei has improved slightly, and the key for the 01 contract lies in the path of cold repair. In the long term, glass demand is difficult to recover significantly [2] - **Soda ash**: The short - term market has stood above the 60 - day line support, and future attention should be paid to whether the actual demand can improve [2] Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day saw gains in the CSI 300, Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. There was capital inflow in communication equipment and electronic components sectors and outflow in catering, tourism, and pharmaceutical sectors. The element market reform pilot will be carried out, and US CPI data has been released, which affects market sentiment. It is recommended to control risk preference and hold long positions in stock indices [2][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds has declined, and the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations. Market interest rates are fluctuating, and the trend of treasury bonds is weakening. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds with a light position [4] - **Gold and Silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing. Its currency, financial, and commodity attributes all support the price, and the market still has a certain demand for hedging. Although the logic of the current gold price increase has not completely reversed, the Fed's interest rate policy and hedging sentiment may be short - term disturbing factors. Gold and silver are expected to maintain a high - level shock [4] Light Industry - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports has decreased slightly, showing a peak - season but not prosperous situation. The arrival volume is expected to increase this week, and the supply pressure is not large. The inventory has been decreasing, and the cost support has weakened. The delivery willingness of the 09 contract has increased. Logs are expected to show a range shock [6] - **Pulp**: The spot price is stable. The cost support has increased, but the profitability of the papermaking industry is low, and paper mills have high inventory pressure. The demand improvement is yet to be verified. Pulp prices are expected to show a weak consolidation [6] - **Offset Paper**: The spot price is stable. Production is relatively stable, but September is the downstream seasonal off - season. The industry has over - capacity, and the supply - demand contradiction is prominent. It should be treated bearishly [6] - **Edible Oils**: The expected increase in the production of US soybeans and Malaysian palm oil has increased the supply pressure. The export tax of Indonesian palm oil has been adjusted, and the import of domestic rapeseed has shrunk. The demand for double - festival stocking is weak. Edible oils are expected to show a wide - range shock [6] - **Oilseeds and Meals**: The market expects a good harvest of US soybeans, and the export has not improved substantially. The domestic supply of soybeans is abundant, and the inventory of soybean meal has been accumulating. Oilseeds and meals are expected to show a shock trend [6][7] - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs has increased slightly, and the slaughter rate has also increased. With the recovery of the slaughter rhythm, the supply of large pigs has increased, and the price of standard pigs may be under pressure. The price difference between fat and standard pigs is expected to widen slightly [7] - **Rubber**: The supply in the rubber - producing areas is affected by weather conditions, and the raw material price is high. The demand of tire enterprises has declined slightly, and the inventory at Qingdao Port has decreased. Rubber is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term [10] - **PX**: There are concerns about weak US demand and global supply surplus. The supply and demand of PX have both increased, but the short - term supply - demand has weakened, and the price follows the oil price [10] - **PTA**: The cost support is average, the supply has increased, and the demand of downstream polyester factories has rebounded. The supply - demand has improved, and the price follows the cost in the short term [10] - **MEG**: The port inventory has increased, and the future arrival volume is not high. The supply pressure has increased, and the mid - term supply - demand is expected to be in a wide - balance state. The low inventory supports the price [10] - **PR**: Affected by the decline in international oil prices, the cost support has weakened, and the demand has also declined. PR is expected to run weakly with the raw materials [10] - **PF**: The cost support is weak, but the orders in the downstream yarn market have improved slightly, and the inventory of short - fiber factories is low. PF is expected to show a shock and consolidation trend [10]

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile and weak [2] - Rolled steel: Weak [2] - Glass: Volatile and weak [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Upward [2] - CSI 300 Index: Volatile [2] - CSI 500 Index: Volatile [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Declining [4] - Gold: Volatile and strong [4] - Silver: Volatile and strong [4] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Logs: Weakly volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Volatile [6] - Palm oil: Volatile [6] - Rapeseed oil: Volatile [6] - Soybean meal: Volatile [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile [7] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile [7] - Live pigs: Volatile and strong [7] - Rubber: Volatile [9] - PX: Wait - and - see [9] - PTA: Volatile [9] - MEG: Wait - and - see [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] Core Views - The steel industry's stable growth policy from 2025 - 2026 boosts raw material sentiment, and iron ore prices are relatively strong. Short - term iron ore fundamentals have limited contradictions and are expected to fluctuate at high levels following finished products. Coal and coke fundamentals are weakening, and the black sector is in a weakening trend. Rolled steel is in a weak fundamental pattern, and glass demand is difficult to recover significantly. [2] - The market as a whole rebounds, and it is recommended to increase risk appetite and for stock index bulls to increase positions. Treasury bond trends are weakening, and long - position holders should hold lightly. Gold is expected to be volatile and strong due to various factors such as central bank purchases and market uncertainties. [4] - Pulp prices are expected to fluctuate and rise, but the increase may be limited. Log prices are expected to be weakly volatile. The supply of oils and fats is relatively loose, and they are expected to be volatile. Meal prices are also expected to be volatile. Live pig prices are expected to rise slightly next week. [6][7] - Rubber supply is tight, and demand and inventory are favorable, so it is expected to be volatile and strong. PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF have different supply - demand and cost situations, with most in a wait - and - see or volatile state. [9] Summaries by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The 2025 - 2026 steel industry policy boosts raw material sentiment. The fundamentals have limited contradictions. The "restriction on production" in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region has little impact on demand. The global shipment is slightly down, and there is no obvious inventory - building pressure. It is expected to follow finished products and fluctuate at high levels. [2] - **Coal and coke**: Fundamentals are weakening, with inventory accumulation and weakening downstream orders. Supply is increasing, and demand is at a new low since the second quarter. It is expected to be volatile and weak. [2] - **Rolled steel**: In a weak fundamental pattern, supply remains high, and demand has no obvious improvement. It is expected to be weak. [2] - **Glass**: Market sentiment is cooling, and the supply - demand pattern has no obvious improvement. Demand is difficult to recover significantly in the long - term. It is expected to be volatile and weak. [2] Financial Sector - **Stock index futures/options**: The market rebounds, and it is recommended to increase risk appetite and for stock index bulls to increase positions. Different stock indexes have different trends, with some rising and some being volatile. [2][4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond is down, and the market has a net capital withdrawal. Treasury bond trends are weakening, and long - position holders should hold lightly. [4] Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and central bank purchases are key. With factors such as the US debt problem and market uncertainties, gold and silver are expected to be volatile and strong. [4] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost supports the price, but demand improvement is uncertain. The supply - demand pattern shows a double - increase, and the price is expected to fluctuate and rise, but the increase may be limited. [6] - **Logs**: Supply pressure is not large, and the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is uncertain. The inventory is declining, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. [6] Oils and Fats and Meals - **Oils and fats**: The supply of raw materials is relatively loose, and the demand for industrial and high - end oil varieties is increasing. They are expected to be volatile. [6] - **Meals**: The US soybean production is expected to be good, but the export situation is not improved. The domestic supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. They are expected to be volatile. [6][7] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average weight of pigs is decreasing, and the demand for slaughter is increasing. With the start of school, the demand is expected to increase, and prices are expected to rise slightly. [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply is tight due to weather conditions, demand is relatively stable, and inventory is decreasing. It is expected to be volatile and strong. [9] Polyester Sector - **PX**: Geopolitical factors support oil prices, and PX supply - demand turns weak. The price follows oil prices. [9] - **PTA**: Cost support is general, supply decreases, and demand improves. The price follows cost fluctuations in the short - term. [9] - **MEG**: Port inventory is decreasing, supply pressure increases, and it is expected to be in a wide - balance state in the medium - term. The price is supported by low inventory. [9] - **PR**: There is no substantial positive driving force in supply - demand, and it is expected to be range - bound. [9] - **PF**: The supply - demand is weak, but the overnight oil price rise may support the cost. It is expected to be volatile. [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: High-level oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: High-level oscillation [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: High-level oscillation [2] - Glass: High-level oscillation [2] - SSE 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Oscillation [2] - CSI 1000: Oscillation [2] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [2] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [2] - 10-year Treasury bond: Decline [2] - Gold: Oscillation [2] - Silver: High-level oscillation [2] - Pulp: Correction [2] - Logs: Oscillation [2] - Soybean oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [2] - Palm oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [2] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [2] - Soybean meal: Oscillation [2] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation [2] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation [2] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [2] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a bearish bias [2] - Rubber: Oscillation [2] - PX: Wait-and-see [2] - PTA: Wait-and-see [2] - MEG: Wait-and-see [2] - PR: Wait-and-see [2] - PF: Wait-and-see [2] Core Views - The trading focus in the near term is on "anti-involution + stable growth", with risks of a phased correction after short-term sentiment release. During the military parade on September 3rd, environmental protection restrictions in northern regions may suppress iron ore demand. The overall performance of the Politburo meeting was below expectations, and market trading enthusiasm may continue to weaken [2]. - The Politburo meeting decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October to study suggestions for formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan". Macro policies should continue to exert force and increase strength in a timely manner [2]. - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The Fed's interest rate and tariff policies may be short-term disturbances, and the evolution of tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts dominates market risk aversion sentiment [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Global iron ore shipments are increasing, supply remains abundant, and arrivals are expected to rebound. The iron ore fundamentals are okay in the short term. Consider a strategy of going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: The exchange adjusted the trading limit for coking coal. Coking coal supply recovery is slow, and there is limited power for further significant price increases. Coke has a fifth-round price increase expectation [2]. - **Rebar and hot-rolled coil**: There are risks of a phased correction. The market trading enthusiasm may decline. The supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and there is a pre-holiday high and post-holiday low pattern. Consider a strategy of going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts [2]. - **Glass**: Supply remains low, and the market sentiment has improved. However, the real estate industry is in an adjustment period, and glass demand is difficult to rebound significantly [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: Different stock indices showed different trends, with some sectors having capital inflows and others having outflows. The Politburo meeting deployed economic work for the second half of the year [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Market interest rates rebounded, and Treasury bond prices declined. Hold Treasury bond long positions lightly [2]. - **Gold**: The pricing mechanism is changing, and various factors such as the US debt problem, interest rates, and geopolitics affect its price. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [2]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The pulp market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to correct [2]. - **Logs**: Log prices are expected to oscillate, with supply pressure not significant and demand improving [2]. Oil and Fat Industry - **Oils**: The production of Malaysian palm oil may slow down, and domestic soybean arrivals are high. Oils are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [2]. - **Meals**: The US soybean harvest is expected to be good, and domestic supply pressure is significant. Demand is weak, but weather factors may provide support. Meals are expected to oscillate [2]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs is declining, and prices are expected to oscillate with a bearish bias. Slaughter enterprise开工率 may continue to decline [2]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply is affected by weather and geopolitical factors, and demand from the tire industry is mixed. Rubber prices are expected to remain firm [2]. Polyester Industry - **PX**: Supply and demand are tight in the short term, and prices follow oil prices [2]. - **PTA**: Supply is slowly increasing, and downstream demand is weakening. Prices follow costs in the short term [2]. - **MEG**: Arrivals are increasing, and supply pressure is rising. Prices are under pressure in the short term [2]. - **PR**: The polyester bottle - chip market may adjust steadily and strongly [2]. - **PF**: The market is expected to be in a narrow range due to the game between cost support and weak demand [2].