1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar and rolled steel: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Rebounding [2] - Soda ash: Adjusting [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Rebounding [4] - Gold: High - level oscillation [4] - Silver: High - level oscillation [4] - Logs: Range - bound oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Bearish outlook [6] - Edible oils: Wide - range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: On the sidelines [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] 2. Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut has landed as expected, and after the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to reality. Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends [2][4]. - Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and the US economic situation affect its price [4]. - Various factors such as supply - demand, policies, and seasonal factors impact the prices of commodities in different industries [2][5][6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Overseas supply decreased slightly but remained at a high level in recent years. Port arrivals increased, demand rebounded, and the 2601 contract adjusted at a high level [2]. - Coking coal and coke: As the double - festival replenishment period approaches, procurement enthusiasm increased. Supply may be weaker than last year, and the futures market rebounded [2]. - Rebar and rolled steel: Data met expectations, production increased slightly, demand was lackluster, and the 2601 contract oscillated with a bullish bias [2]. - Glass: Enterprises raised prices, short - term price increases may stimulate downstream replenishment, and demand improved slightly, but the long - term real estate adjustment continued [2]. Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: Different stock indices showed different trends, with some sectors having capital inflows and others outflows [2]. - Treasury bonds: Yields and market interest rates fluctuated, and the market was affected by factors such as central bank operations [4]. - Gold and silver: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and factors such as geopolitical risks, the US economic situation, and central bank gold purchases affect their prices [4]. Light Industry - Logs: Supply tightened, inventory decreased, cost support weakened, and prices were expected to oscillate in a range [6]. - Pulp: Spot prices were divided, cost support increased, but demand was weak, and prices were expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - Offset paper: Production was stable, demand was weak during the off - season, and the industry was bearish [6]. Oils and Fats - Oils: Palm oil inventory increased, production decreased due to disasters, and demand from India increased. Domestic oil supply was abundant, and prices were expected to oscillate widely [5]. - Meal: US soybean production increased, export demand was weak, and domestic supply was abundant, with prices expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Average transaction weight increased, supply was abundant, demand was weak, and prices were expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply pressure decreased in some areas, demand increased slightly, inventory decreased, and prices were expected to oscillate widely [10]. - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: PX had supply risks, PTA's cost support might weaken, and their prices followed cost fluctuations. MEG had supply pressure, and PR and PF were expected to trade flatly [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oscillating Weakly**: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, live pigs, cotton (medium - term), sugar (long - term) [2][7][12][18][19] - **Oscillating**: Corn, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, synthetic rubber, cotton (short - term), paper pulp, offset paper, logs [11][15][16][18][20][22][23] - **Weak Market Sentiment**: Fats and oils [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: With the harvest of US soybeans and the increase in Argentine supply, the domestic supply pressure is dominant, and both are expected to oscillate weakly. Long positions from the previous period can take profits and then wait and see [2][7]. - **Fats and Oils**: Market sentiment remains weak. The harvest of US soybeans is progressing, but the good - quality rate is declining. The export tax on soybeans and their derivatives in Argentina has been temporarily cancelled. The inventory of domestic soybean oil may peak, the inventory build - up of Malaysian palm oil in September may be limited, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory may continue to decline [5]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the market faces the pressure of new grain listing, and prices may continue to decline. In the long term, it is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish, with an oscillating outlook [11]. - **Live Pigs**: The purchase and sale are smooth, but the price is at a low level. In the short term, the supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure. In the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy is implemented, the supply pressure in 2026 will weaken [12]. - **Natural Rubber**: Before the holiday, positions are continuously reduced. It is recommended to wait and see. It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [15]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market will maintain an oscillating pattern within a range [16]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, there may be a certain support around 13,500 yuan/ton, and there may be a rebound. In the medium term, due to the expected increase in production, it is expected to oscillate weakly [18]. - **Sugar**: In the long term, it is expected to oscillate weakly due to the expected abundant supply in the new season. In the short term, the price has stopped falling and rebounded [19]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating pattern, and the 01 contract may face downward pressure [20]. - **Offset Paper**: The downstream orders are weak, and the market contradiction is not prominent. It is recommended to operate within the range of 4,100 - 4,400 yuan in the short - term [22]. - **Logs**: The spot price is stable, and the market is expected to oscillate around 800 yuan in the short term [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fats and Oils - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, US soybeans and soybean oil rebounded slightly due to technical buying, and domestic fats and oils oscillated weakly. The US dollar weakened slightly, and crude oil prices rose [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The harvest of US soybeans is progressing normally, but the good - quality rate is declining. The production and consumption of US biodiesel have decreased year - on - year. Argentina has cancelled the export tax on soybeans and their derivatives. The inventory of domestic soybean oil may peak, the inventory build - up of Malaysian palm oil in September may be limited, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory may continue to decline [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil and palm oil are expected to oscillate weakly, and rapeseed oil is expected to oscillate [5]. 3.2 Protein Meals - **Market Information**: On September 24, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes increased, and the average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing decreased [7]. - **Industry Situation**: Argentina has cancelled all grain export tariffs, and the China - Canada trade relationship may improve. Internationally, the supply of US soybeans is increasing, and the export price of Argentine soybeans is decreasing. Domestically, the import volume of soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil from Argentina is expected to increase, and the supply may continue to be high. The demand for soybean meal may increase steadily, and rapeseed meal is expected to follow the trend of soybean meal [7]. - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and then wait and see [2][7]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Market Information**: The average price of domestic corn is 2,350 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main contract is 2,158 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [8][10]. - **Industry Situation**: The price of domestic corn varies in different regions. The supply of new grain in the Northeast is under pressure, and the price is stable or weak. The arrival volume in North China is low, and the price is strong. The port demand is weak, and the price is stable or weak. The new grain in Jilin, Inner Mongolia, and western Heilongjiang has not been listed, and the new grain in eastern Heilongjiang has a high opening price. North China has been affected by continuous rainfall, and the arrival of wet grain is insufficient. Argentina has cancelled the export tax on corn, which may have a limited impact [11]. - **Outlook**: Corn is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling on rebounds and reverse arbitrage opportunities [11]. 3.4 Live Pigs - **Market Information**: On September 24, the spot price of live pigs in Henan was 12.79 yuan/kg, down 0.23%, and the closing price of the live pig futures active contract was 12,730 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [12]. - **Industry Situation**: Affected by typhoons in Guangdong, some enterprises have reduced production. The cost of breeding is expected to decrease due to Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs. In the short term, the supply of live pigs is abundant, and in the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy is implemented, the supply pressure in 2026 will weaken [12]. - **Outlook**: Live pigs are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities [12]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of natural rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone has increased, and the export of natural rubber from Thailand from January to August has decreased year - on - year [13][14]. - **Industry Situation**: The rubber price has maintained a narrow - range oscillation pattern. The fundamentals are currently strong, but there is an expectation of increased supply in the fourth quarter. The downstream pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the overall demand is not expected to change significantly [15]. - **Outlook**: Natural rubber is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern within a range. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [15]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Market Information**: The spot price of butadiene rubber and the domestic spot price of butadiene have increased [16]. - **Industry Situation**: The BR market first rose and then fell, and the absolute price remained basically unchanged. There are expectations of many device overhauls from September to November, and the price is at a low level since listing. The raw material butadiene has a certain support on the supply side, but the downstream demand is weak [16][17]. - **Outlook**: Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [16]. 3.7 Cotton - **Market Information**: As of September 24, the number of registered warehouse receipts for the 24/25 season was 3,716, and the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton 01 was 13,555 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [17]. - **Industry Situation**: The output of Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase significantly in the new season. The inventory structure is currently tight in the near - term and loose in the long - term. The demand has improved seasonally, but the sustainability is in doubt [17][18]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, there may be a certain support around 13,500 yuan/ton, and there may be a rebound. In the medium term, due to the expected increase in production, it is expected to oscillate weakly [18]. 3.8 Sugar - **Market Information**: As of September 24, the closing price of Zhengzhou sugar 01 was 5,497 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton [19]. - **Industry Situation**: Recently, Zhengzhou sugar has continued to decline and then rebounded. The international trade flow is abundant, and the domestic consumption in August is average. The supply of the global sugar market is expected to be abundant in the 25/26 season [19]. - **Outlook**: In the long term, sugar is expected to oscillate weakly. In the short term, the price has stopped falling and rebounded [19]. 3.9 Paper Pulp - **Market Information**: The price of domestic paper pulp varies, with the price of Russian pine needles in Shandong at 5,100 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [19]. - **Industry Situation**: The paper pulp futures have been oscillating at a low level. The 09 contract has completed delivery, and the US dollar price of softwood pulp is expected to decline. The paper market has some changes, but the impact is not strong. The fundamentals of paper pulp are still weakly guided [20]. - **Outlook**: Paper pulp is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. 3.10 Offset Paper - **Market Information**: The market price of offset paper has remained stable, and the market is waiting and seeing [22]. - **Industry Situation**: The production of large - scale paper mills is basically stable, and the production enthusiasm of some small and medium - sized paper mills is average. The downstream printing factory orders are weak, and the market confidence is insufficient. The supply and demand have no obvious contradiction in the short term [22]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to operate within the range of 4,100 - 4,400 yuan in the short - term [22]. 3.11 Logs - **Market Information**: The spot price of logs is stable, and the inventory has decreased [23]. - **Industry Situation**: The market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectations. The fundamentals have improved marginally, but there is no strong upward driving force. The delivery logic has a negative impact on the market [23]. - **Outlook**: The log market is expected to oscillate around 800 yuan in the short term [23].

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Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Adjusting [2] - Soda ash: Adjusting [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Oscillating [3] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebounding [3] - Gold: Bullish [3] - Silver: Bullish [3] - Logs: Range-bound [5] - Pulp: Consolidating at the bottom [5] - Offset paper: Bearish [5] - Edible oils: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [9] - PX: On the sidelines [9] - PTA: Oscillating [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented as expected, and after the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to the real economy [2][3] - The supply of overseas iron ore has declined slightly, but the total global iron ore shipments are still at a relatively high level in recent years, and the demand for iron ore has rebounded [2] - The coal mine shutdown news and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" have jointly promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke futures [2] - The real estate investment continues to decline, and the total demand is difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance, forming a pattern of high in the first half and low in the second half [2] - The overall glass supply remains stable, and the demand has limited growth, with a loose fundamental pattern [2] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional focus on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases, and the price is expected to remain bullish [3] - The supply of logs is tightening, and the cost support is weakening, with the price expected to range-bound [5] - The pulp price is expected to consolidate at the bottom, and the offset paper market is bearish [5] - The supply pressure of edible oils is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [5] - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5] - The average trading weight of live pigs is rising, and the price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term [7] - The natural rubber price is expected to oscillate widely, and the PX and PTA prices will follow the cost fluctuations [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments decreased by 2.483 million tons to 33.248 million tons, but the 47-port iron ore arrivals increased by 3.581 million tons to 27.504 million tons. The daily average pig iron output rebounded slightly, driving up the demand for iron ore. The steel mills' profit ratio declined, but the motivation for active production cuts was still insufficient, with inventory replenishment expected before the festival. The iron ore 2601 contract broke through the previous high and showed an oscillating and bullish trend [2] - Coking coal and coke: The shutdown news of coal mines and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke futures. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year in the second half of the year, and the demand for coking coal and coke has rebounded with the arrival of the peak season. An individual coking enterprise in Inner Mongolia initiated the first round of coke price increase. The price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar: The Fed's interest rate cut and the coal mine shutdown news, along with the "anti-involution" expectation, promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke, which in turn drove up the rebar price. The output of finished steel decreased slightly, but the supply remained at a relatively high level. The total demand was difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance, and the rebar 2601 contract is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term, with attention paid to the inventory performance [2] - Glass: The glass supply remained stable, and the demand had limited growth. The downstream deep-processing factory orders increased slightly, but the demand increment was limited. The coal-to-gas conversion in Shahe may cause short-term fluctuations in the market. The key for the 01 contract lies in the cold repair path, and attention should be paid to the pre-festival inventory replenishment [2] Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock indexes showed different performances. The computer hardware and precious metals sectors had capital inflows, while the catering and tourism and soft drink sectors had capital outflows. The market rebounded, and it is recommended to control the risk preference and maintain the current long position of stock indexes [3] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond and FR007 increased by 1bp, and SHIBOR3M remained flat. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the market interest rate fluctuated. The Treasury bond price showed a weakening trend, and it is recommended to hold a light long position [3] - Gold and silver: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and the price is affected by central bank gold purchases, currency, finance, and geopolitical factors. The interest rate policy of the Fed and geopolitical conflicts are the main influencing factors. The price of gold and silver is expected to remain bullish, with attention paid to Powell's speech and PCE data [3] Light Industry - Logs: The daily average port shipments of logs decreased, and the supply from New Zealand declined. The port inventory decreased, and the cost support weakened. The price is expected to range-bound [5] - Pulp: The spot market price of pulp was stable, and the cost support increased. However, the papermaking industry's profitability was low, and the paper mills' inventory pressure was high, with the price expected to consolidate at the bottom [5] - Offset paper: The spot market price of offset paper declined. The production was relatively stable, but it was in the downstream seasonal off-season, and the demand was poor. The industry was in a stage of overcapacity, and the price was expected to be bearish [5] Oil and Fat Industry - Edible oils: The production of Malaysian palm oil increased slightly in August, and the inventory increased by 4.18% to 2.2 million tons. The supply pressure of domestic soybean oil increased, and the price of edible oils is expected to oscillate widely, with attention paid to the weather in the US soybean-producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [5] - Soybean meal: The US soybean yield increased, but the export demand was weak, and the domestic supply was abundant. The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias, with attention paid to the US soybean weather and soybean arrivals [5] Agricultural Products Industry - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs increased, and the supply was relatively abundant. The terminal consumption market was sluggish, and the slaughtering enterprise's开工 rate declined. The price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term, with the support of the pre-festival inventory replenishment demand [7] Soft Commodities Industry - Natural rubber: The supply pressure in Yunnan decreased, and the production in Hainan was lower than expected. The demand for tires increased, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to oscillate widely [9] - PX and PTA: The PX supply was in surplus, and the price followed the oil price fluctuations. The PTA supply and demand both increased, but the overall supply-demand margin weakened, and the price followed the cost fluctuations [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore - high - level shock; Coal and coke - shock; Rolled steel and screw steel - weak; Glass - shock; Soda ash - shock [2] - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai Composite 50 - shock; CSI 300 - upward; CSI 500 - upward; CSI 1000 - upward; 2 - year treasury bond - shock; 5 - year treasury bond - shock; 10 - year treasury bond - rebound; Gold - high - level shock; Silver - high - level shock [2][3][4] - **Light Industry**: Logs - range shock; Pulp - weak consolidation; Offset paper - bearish; Edible oils - wide - range shock; Oilseeds and meals - shock; Live pigs - shock and slightly stronger; Rubber - shock; PX - wait - and - see; PTA - shock; MEG - wait - and - see; PR - wait - and - see; PF - shock and consolidation [6][7][10] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple industries including black, financial, light industries, etc. It provides investment ratings and detailed analyses of the supply - demand relationships, price trends, and influencing factors for each product in these industries, guiding investors to make decisions based on the current market situation and future trends [2][4][6] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The Guinean government's requirements boost market sentiment. The daily average pig iron output has recovered to 240,000 tons. Global iron ore shipments have decreased significantly, mainly due to the sharp decline in Brazilian shipments. There is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure, and the short - term fundamentals have limited contradictions. Attention should be paid to whether the 2601 contract can stand firm at the previous high [2] - **Coal and coke**: The purchase price of coke by mainstream steel mills has been lowered. The fundamentals are weakening, with continuous inventory accumulation of steel and coal mines and weakening downstream orders. Supply is increasing, while demand has recovered slightly. The short - term sentiment in the black sector has cooled, and coal and coke show a low - level shock trend [2] - **Rolled steel and screw steel**: The fundamentals are weak. The steel industry's stable - growth policy does not restrict steel production, so supply remains high. The demand for building materials has declined, and the total demand is hard to reverse seasonally, showing a pattern of high in the front and low in the back. Profits have declined, and the 2601 contract of screw steel is running weakly below the 60 - day line [2] - **Glass**: The news of coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe may cause short - term fluctuations in the market. The cost of production lines will increase. The spot in Hubei has improved slightly, and the key for the 01 contract lies in the path of cold repair. In the long term, glass demand is difficult to recover significantly [2] - **Soda ash**: The short - term market has stood above the 60 - day line support, and future attention should be paid to whether the actual demand can improve [2] Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day saw gains in the CSI 300, Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. There was capital inflow in communication equipment and electronic components sectors and outflow in catering, tourism, and pharmaceutical sectors. The element market reform pilot will be carried out, and US CPI data has been released, which affects market sentiment. It is recommended to control risk preference and hold long positions in stock indices [2][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds has declined, and the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations. Market interest rates are fluctuating, and the trend of treasury bonds is weakening. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds with a light position [4] - **Gold and Silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing. Its currency, financial, and commodity attributes all support the price, and the market still has a certain demand for hedging. Although the logic of the current gold price increase has not completely reversed, the Fed's interest rate policy and hedging sentiment may be short - term disturbing factors. Gold and silver are expected to maintain a high - level shock [4] Light Industry - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports has decreased slightly, showing a peak - season but not prosperous situation. The arrival volume is expected to increase this week, and the supply pressure is not large. The inventory has been decreasing, and the cost support has weakened. The delivery willingness of the 09 contract has increased. Logs are expected to show a range shock [6] - **Pulp**: The spot price is stable. The cost support has increased, but the profitability of the papermaking industry is low, and paper mills have high inventory pressure. The demand improvement is yet to be verified. Pulp prices are expected to show a weak consolidation [6] - **Offset Paper**: The spot price is stable. Production is relatively stable, but September is the downstream seasonal off - season. The industry has over - capacity, and the supply - demand contradiction is prominent. It should be treated bearishly [6] - **Edible Oils**: The expected increase in the production of US soybeans and Malaysian palm oil has increased the supply pressure. The export tax of Indonesian palm oil has been adjusted, and the import of domestic rapeseed has shrunk. The demand for double - festival stocking is weak. Edible oils are expected to show a wide - range shock [6] - **Oilseeds and Meals**: The market expects a good harvest of US soybeans, and the export has not improved substantially. The domestic supply of soybeans is abundant, and the inventory of soybean meal has been accumulating. Oilseeds and meals are expected to show a shock trend [6][7] - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs has increased slightly, and the slaughter rate has also increased. With the recovery of the slaughter rhythm, the supply of large pigs has increased, and the price of standard pigs may be under pressure. The price difference between fat and standard pigs is expected to widen slightly [7] - **Rubber**: The supply in the rubber - producing areas is affected by weather conditions, and the raw material price is high. The demand of tire enterprises has declined slightly, and the inventory at Qingdao Port has decreased. Rubber is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term [10] - **PX**: There are concerns about weak US demand and global supply surplus. The supply and demand of PX have both increased, but the short - term supply - demand has weakened, and the price follows the oil price [10] - **PTA**: The cost support is average, the supply has increased, and the demand of downstream polyester factories has rebounded. The supply - demand has improved, and the price follows the cost in the short term [10] - **MEG**: The port inventory has increased, and the future arrival volume is not high. The supply pressure has increased, and the mid - term supply - demand is expected to be in a wide - balance state. The low inventory supports the price [10] - **PR**: Affected by the decline in international oil prices, the cost support has weakened, and the demand has also declined. PR is expected to run weakly with the raw materials [10] - **PF**: The cost support is weak, but the orders in the downstream yarn market have improved slightly, and the inventory of short - fiber factories is low. PF is expected to show a shock and consolidation trend [10]

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile and weak [2] - Rolled steel: Weak [2] - Glass: Volatile and weak [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Upward [2] - CSI 300 Index: Volatile [2] - CSI 500 Index: Volatile [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Declining [4] - Gold: Volatile and strong [4] - Silver: Volatile and strong [4] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Logs: Weakly volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Volatile [6] - Palm oil: Volatile [6] - Rapeseed oil: Volatile [6] - Soybean meal: Volatile [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile [7] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile [7] - Live pigs: Volatile and strong [7] - Rubber: Volatile [9] - PX: Wait - and - see [9] - PTA: Volatile [9] - MEG: Wait - and - see [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] Core Views - The steel industry's stable growth policy from 2025 - 2026 boosts raw material sentiment, and iron ore prices are relatively strong. Short - term iron ore fundamentals have limited contradictions and are expected to fluctuate at high levels following finished products. Coal and coke fundamentals are weakening, and the black sector is in a weakening trend. Rolled steel is in a weak fundamental pattern, and glass demand is difficult to recover significantly. [2] - The market as a whole rebounds, and it is recommended to increase risk appetite and for stock index bulls to increase positions. Treasury bond trends are weakening, and long - position holders should hold lightly. Gold is expected to be volatile and strong due to various factors such as central bank purchases and market uncertainties. [4] - Pulp prices are expected to fluctuate and rise, but the increase may be limited. Log prices are expected to be weakly volatile. The supply of oils and fats is relatively loose, and they are expected to be volatile. Meal prices are also expected to be volatile. Live pig prices are expected to rise slightly next week. [6][7] - Rubber supply is tight, and demand and inventory are favorable, so it is expected to be volatile and strong. PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF have different supply - demand and cost situations, with most in a wait - and - see or volatile state. [9] Summaries by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The 2025 - 2026 steel industry policy boosts raw material sentiment. The fundamentals have limited contradictions. The "restriction on production" in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region has little impact on demand. The global shipment is slightly down, and there is no obvious inventory - building pressure. It is expected to follow finished products and fluctuate at high levels. [2] - **Coal and coke**: Fundamentals are weakening, with inventory accumulation and weakening downstream orders. Supply is increasing, and demand is at a new low since the second quarter. It is expected to be volatile and weak. [2] - **Rolled steel**: In a weak fundamental pattern, supply remains high, and demand has no obvious improvement. It is expected to be weak. [2] - **Glass**: Market sentiment is cooling, and the supply - demand pattern has no obvious improvement. Demand is difficult to recover significantly in the long - term. It is expected to be volatile and weak. [2] Financial Sector - **Stock index futures/options**: The market rebounds, and it is recommended to increase risk appetite and for stock index bulls to increase positions. Different stock indexes have different trends, with some rising and some being volatile. [2][4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond is down, and the market has a net capital withdrawal. Treasury bond trends are weakening, and long - position holders should hold lightly. [4] Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and central bank purchases are key. With factors such as the US debt problem and market uncertainties, gold and silver are expected to be volatile and strong. [4] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost supports the price, but demand improvement is uncertain. The supply - demand pattern shows a double - increase, and the price is expected to fluctuate and rise, but the increase may be limited. [6] - **Logs**: Supply pressure is not large, and the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is uncertain. The inventory is declining, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. [6] Oils and Fats and Meals - **Oils and fats**: The supply of raw materials is relatively loose, and the demand for industrial and high - end oil varieties is increasing. They are expected to be volatile. [6] - **Meals**: The US soybean production is expected to be good, but the export situation is not improved. The domestic supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. They are expected to be volatile. [6][7] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average weight of pigs is decreasing, and the demand for slaughter is increasing. With the start of school, the demand is expected to increase, and prices are expected to rise slightly. [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply is tight due to weather conditions, demand is relatively stable, and inventory is decreasing. It is expected to be volatile and strong. [9] Polyester Sector - **PX**: Geopolitical factors support oil prices, and PX supply - demand turns weak. The price follows oil prices. [9] - **PTA**: Cost support is general, supply decreases, and demand improves. The price follows cost fluctuations in the short - term. [9] - **MEG**: Port inventory is decreasing, supply pressure increases, and it is expected to be in a wide - balance state in the medium - term. The price is supported by low inventory. [9] - **PR**: There is no substantial positive driving force in supply - demand, and it is expected to be range - bound. [9] - **PF**: The supply - demand is weak, but the overnight oil price rise may support the cost. It is expected to be volatile. [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: High-level oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: High-level oscillation [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: High-level oscillation [2] - Glass: High-level oscillation [2] - SSE 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Oscillation [2] - CSI 1000: Oscillation [2] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [2] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [2] - 10-year Treasury bond: Decline [2] - Gold: Oscillation [2] - Silver: High-level oscillation [2] - Pulp: Correction [2] - Logs: Oscillation [2] - Soybean oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [2] - Palm oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [2] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillation with a bullish bias [2] - Soybean meal: Oscillation [2] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation [2] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation [2] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [2] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a bearish bias [2] - Rubber: Oscillation [2] - PX: Wait-and-see [2] - PTA: Wait-and-see [2] - MEG: Wait-and-see [2] - PR: Wait-and-see [2] - PF: Wait-and-see [2] Core Views - The trading focus in the near term is on "anti-involution + stable growth", with risks of a phased correction after short-term sentiment release. During the military parade on September 3rd, environmental protection restrictions in northern regions may suppress iron ore demand. The overall performance of the Politburo meeting was below expectations, and market trading enthusiasm may continue to weaken [2]. - The Politburo meeting decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October to study suggestions for formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan". Macro policies should continue to exert force and increase strength in a timely manner [2]. - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The Fed's interest rate and tariff policies may be short-term disturbances, and the evolution of tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts dominates market risk aversion sentiment [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Global iron ore shipments are increasing, supply remains abundant, and arrivals are expected to rebound. The iron ore fundamentals are okay in the short term. Consider a strategy of going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: The exchange adjusted the trading limit for coking coal. Coking coal supply recovery is slow, and there is limited power for further significant price increases. Coke has a fifth-round price increase expectation [2]. - **Rebar and hot-rolled coil**: There are risks of a phased correction. The market trading enthusiasm may decline. The supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and there is a pre-holiday high and post-holiday low pattern. Consider a strategy of going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts [2]. - **Glass**: Supply remains low, and the market sentiment has improved. However, the real estate industry is in an adjustment period, and glass demand is difficult to rebound significantly [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: Different stock indices showed different trends, with some sectors having capital inflows and others having outflows. The Politburo meeting deployed economic work for the second half of the year [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Market interest rates rebounded, and Treasury bond prices declined. Hold Treasury bond long positions lightly [2]. - **Gold**: The pricing mechanism is changing, and various factors such as the US debt problem, interest rates, and geopolitics affect its price. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [2]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The pulp market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to correct [2]. - **Logs**: Log prices are expected to oscillate, with supply pressure not significant and demand improving [2]. Oil and Fat Industry - **Oils**: The production of Malaysian palm oil may slow down, and domestic soybean arrivals are high. Oils are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [2]. - **Meals**: The US soybean harvest is expected to be good, and domestic supply pressure is significant. Demand is weak, but weather factors may provide support. Meals are expected to oscillate [2]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs is declining, and prices are expected to oscillate with a bearish bias. Slaughter enterprise开工率 may continue to decline [2]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply is affected by weather and geopolitical factors, and demand from the tire industry is mixed. Rubber prices are expected to remain firm [2]. Polyester Industry - **PX**: Supply and demand are tight in the short term, and prices follow oil prices [2]. - **PTA**: Supply is slowly increasing, and downstream demand is weakening. Prices follow costs in the short term [2]. - **MEG**: Arrivals are increasing, and supply pressure is rising. Prices are under pressure in the short term [2]. - **PR**: The polyester bottle - chip market may adjust steadily and strongly [2]. - **PF**: The market is expected to be in a narrow range due to the game between cost support and weak demand [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore - Oscillation; Coal and coke - Uptrend; Rolled steel - Oscillation; Glass - Uptrend; Soda ash - Bullish [2] - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai 50 Index - Rebound; CSI 300 Index - Oscillation; CSI 500 Index - Oscillation; CSI 1000 Index - Oscillation; 2 - year Treasury bond - Oscillation; 5 - year Treasury bond - Oscillation; 10 - year Treasury bond - Rebound; Gold - Oscillation; Silver - Bullish operation [3][4][6] - **Light Industry**: Pulp - Correction; Log - Correction [6] - **Oil and Fat Industry**: Soybean oil - Oscillation and correction; Palm oil - Oscillation and correction; Rapeseed oil - Oscillation and correction [6] - **Feed Industry**: Soybean meal - Oscillation and correction; Rapeseed meal - Oscillation and correction; Soybean No. 2 - Oscillation and correction; Soybean No. 1 - Oscillation and correction [8] - **Agricultural Products Industry**: Live pigs - Oscillation and weakness [8] - **Soft Commodities Industry**: Rubber - Oscillation; PX - Wait - and - see; PTA - Wait - and - see; MEG - Wait - and - see; PR - Wait - and - see; PF - Wait - and - see [10] 2. Core Views - The black industry is affected by policies such as "anti - involution" and the expectation of stable growth in the steel industry. The short - term market sentiment is boosted, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand situation varies by product [2]. - The financial market is influenced by factors such as Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, the start of the full - island customs closure operation in Hainan Free Trade Port, and central bank operations. The upward momentum of the market weakens, and risk preferences decline [3][4]. - In the precious metals market, the pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and the Fed's interest rate and tariff policies, as well as geopolitical conflicts, affect the market sentiment [4][6]. - The pulp and log markets show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to correct [6]. - The oil and fat and feed markets are affected by factors such as production, inventory, and trade agreements. After previous rises, prices may oscillate and correct in the short term [6][8]. - The live pig market is affected by factors such as temperature, slaughter enterprise procurement, and supply - demand relationship. The average transaction weight may decline slightly, and prices may also weaken [8]. - The rubber market is affected by weather, production, demand, and inventory. Prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [10]. - The polyester industry is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship and cost. Most products are in a wait - and - see state [10]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipping volume increases, and the supply is still abundant. In the short term, the fundamentals are acceptable, but in the medium and long term, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains. It follows the trend of finished products, and attention should be paid to the support at 800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Coal and Coke**: The expectation of anti - involution policies and supply - side policies boosts market sentiment. After the second price increase, the cost of coke still has pressure, and the market's bullish expectation is enhanced. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [2]. - **Rolled Steel (Thread Steel)**: The "anti - involution" policy stimulates supply - side sentiment, but the overall demand is weak. In the short term, it is supported by policies, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of July [2]. - **Glass**: The "anti - involution" trading may continue. The demand side has weakening real demand but strong speculative demand. The supply side has increasing production pressure. In the long term, the demand is difficult to recover significantly [2]. - **Soda Ash**: It is bullish in the short term, and attention should be paid to the real demand and supply - side trends [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The market upward momentum weakens, and it is recommended to reduce long positions in stock index futures [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The market interest rate is consolidating, and long positions in treasury bonds can be held lightly [3][4]. - **Precious Metals**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing. In the short term, it is affected by the Fed's policies and geopolitical factors. Silver is bullish [4][6]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost price decline weakens the support for pulp prices. The paper industry has low profitability and high inventory pressure, and pulp prices are expected to correct [6]. - **Log**: The supply pressure is not large, but the anti - involution sentiment weakens, and log prices are expected to correct [6]. Oil and Fat Industry - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil**: Supply is abundant, and it is the off - season for demand. Although supported by the bio - diesel expectation, prices may oscillate and correct in the short term after previous rises [6]. Feed Industry - **Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean No. 2, Soybean No. 1**: Affected by factors such as US soybean production, inventory, and trade agreements, prices may oscillate and correct in the short term after previous rises [8]. Agricultural Products Industry - **Live Pigs**: The average transaction weight may decline slightly, and prices may weaken due to factors such as supply increase and demand suppression by high temperatures [8]. Soft Commodities Industry - **Rubber**: Affected by weather, production, demand, and inventory, prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [10]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: Most products in the polyester industry are affected by supply - demand and cost factors and are in a wait - and - see state [10].

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Upward [2] - Coking coal and coke: Upward [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Bullish [2] - Glass: Upward [2] - Soda ash: Bullish [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [4] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury Bonds: Sideways [4] - 5-year Treasury Bonds: Sideways [4] - 10-year Treasury Bonds: Rebound [4] - Gold: Bullish sideways [6] - Silver: Bullish [6] - Pulp: Sideways with a bullish bias [6] - Logs: Bullish sideways [6] - Soybean oil: Sideways correction [6] - Palm oil: Sideways correction [6] - Rapeseed oil: Sideways correction [8] - Soybean meal: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Rapeseed meal: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Soybean No. 2: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Soybean No. 1: Sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Live pigs: Sideways with a bearish bias [8] - Rubber: Sideways [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: On the sidelines [10] - MEG: On the sidelines [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: Sideways with a bearish bias [10] Core Views - The anti-involution policy has boosted the sentiment of the black market, but the long-term supply-demand surplus pattern of iron ore remains unchanged. The coking coal and coke market is expected to be bullish in the short term, and the steel and glass markets are supported by macro and policy factors. The stock index futures market shows a mixed trend, and the bond market is expected to rebound slightly. The precious metals market is expected to be bullish, and the pulp and log markets are expected to be bullish sideways. The oil and fat market may correct in the short term, and the agricultural products market shows a mixed trend. The soft commodities market is expected to be sideways, and the polyester market is on the sidelines [2][4][6][8][10] Summary by Categories Black Industry - Iron ore: The global iron ore shipment volume increased, and the supply is still abundant. The iron ore port inventory increased slightly, and the short-term fundamentals are acceptable. The long-term supply is expected to increase, and the demand is relatively low. The price has broken through the previous high and is expected to be bullish [2] - Coking coal and coke: After the second round of price increases, the cost pressure of coke remains, and the market is expected to be bullish. The current fundamentals are healthy, and the price is expected to be bullish in the short term. The coking plant's operation is stable, and the supply is slightly tight. The downstream demand is weak, but the steel mill's procurement enthusiasm has increased [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: The anti-involution policy has boosted the supply-side sentiment, and the steel industry's stable growth expectation has pushed up the market sentiment. The construction material demand has declined in the off-season, but the profit of the five major steel products is acceptable, and the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent. The total demand is expected to be low, and the price is supported by macro and policy factors [2] - Glass: The anti-involution trading may continue, and the macro environment is neutral to bullish. The demand for glass deep processing orders has weakened, but the speculative demand is strong. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure remains. The downstream inventory is low, but the rigid demand has not recovered. The long-term demand is difficult to increase significantly, and the price is expected to be bullish in the short term [2] Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.67%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.28%, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.01%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.92%. The construction materials and engineering machinery sectors saw capital inflows, while the education and banking sectors saw capital outflows. The European leaders' visit to China and the stable LPR have boosted the market sentiment. The market risk aversion has eased, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the stock index [4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond increased by 1bp, and the market interest rate was stable. The central bank conducted 170.7 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 5.55 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to rebound slightly, and it is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds [4] Precious Metals Industry - Gold: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional real interest rate to central bank gold purchases. The currency, financial, and hedging attributes of gold are prominent. The US debt problem and the trade tension have supported the price of gold. The Fed's interest rate and tariff policies may be short-term disturbances, and the price is expected to be bullish sideways [6] - Silver: The price of silver is expected to be bullish. The inflation data shows resilience, and the market uncertainty before the new tariff deadline has increased the demand for hedging funds. The Fed's interest rate cut expectation in September has supported the price of silver [6] Light Industry - Pulp: The spot market price of pulp is rising, but the cost is falling, which weakens the support for the price. The papermaking industry's profitability is low, and the demand is in the off-season. The anti-involution policy has boosted the market sentiment, and the price is expected to be sideways with a bullish bias [6] - Logs: The daily出库 volume of logs has increased, and the cost has risen, which strengthens the support for the price. The supply pressure is not large, and the anti-involution policy has boosted the market sentiment. The price is expected to be bullish sideways [6] Oil and Fat Industry - Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil: The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in June, but the inventory increased. The export may slow down in July. The production of US biodiesel is increasing, which supports the demand for soybean oil. The domestic inventory of the three major oils is rising, and the supply is abundant. The demand is in the off-season, but the biodiesel expectation has boosted the price. The price may correct in the short term [6][8] Agricultural Products Industry - Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No. 2, and soybean No. 1: The estimated yield of US soybeans has been reduced, but the end-of-year inventory has increased. The growth of US soybeans is good, and the consumption of soybean meal is expected to increase. The domestic supply of soybeans is abundant, and the price is expected to be sideways with a bullish bias [8] - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, and the price has risen slightly but is expected to decline. The supply of live pigs is increasing, and the consumption demand is restricted by high temperatures. The slaughtering enterprise's operating rate is expected to decline slightly [8] Soft Commodities Industry - Rubber: The raw material supply of natural rubber is tight due to rainfall, and the price has risen. The tire industry's capacity utilization rate has recovered, but the growth is restricted by the market demand. The inventory of natural rubber is increasing, and the price is expected to be sideways [10] Polyester Industry - PX: The geopolitical situation has eased, which has pressured the oil price. The short-term supply of PX is tight, and the price follows the oil price [10] - PTA: The cost is sideways, and the supply has increased. The downstream polyester factory's operating rate has decreased slightly, and the medium-term supply-demand is expected to weaken. The price follows the cost in the short term [10] - MEG: The recent arrival volume is small, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The terminal demand is weak, and the supply pressure has eased. The medium-term supply-demand is expected to be balanced. The cost has rebounded, and the price is expected to be bullish sideways [10] - PR: The cost is supportive, but the downstream demand is rigid. The polyester bottle sheet market is expected to be sorted out narrowly [10] - PF: The support is weak, and the industry supply pressure is large. The polyester staple fiber market is expected to be sideways with a bearish bias [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Upward [2] - Coking coal and coke: Upward [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillating strongly [2] - Glass: Upward [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - CSI 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Upward [4] - CSI 1000: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong operation [4] - Pulp: Oscillating [6] - Logs: Strongly oscillating [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillating more [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating more [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating more [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating more [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating more [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating more [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating more [6] - Live pigs: Oscillating weakly [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Wait-and-see [9] - MEG: Short at high prices [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views of the Report The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities and financial products on July 21, 2025. It is believed that the "anti-involution" policy has boosted the sentiment of the black market, the iron ore market is temporarily stable in the short term but oversupplied in the long term, the coking coal and coke market is expected to be strong in the short term, and the steel market is affected by policies and demand and may fluctuate strongly. In the financial market, with the improvement of China's economic data and the implementation of positive policies, the stock index is expected to rise, and the bond market may be volatile. Precious metals are affected by factors such as interest rates, geopolitics, and central bank purchases and are expected to maintain high-level oscillations. In the agricultural and light industrial product markets, the prices of logs and some oils and meals are expected to be strong, while the prices of live pigs are expected to be weak. The rubber market is in a state of supply and demand adjustment and is expected to oscillate widely. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The "anti-involution" policy has boosted market sentiment, and the iron ore price has risen significantly. The end-of-season impulse of mines is basically over, and global iron ore shipments have declined to some extent. The near-term arrivals have increased month-on-month due to the previous high shipments, and the supply remains loose. In the off-season of the industry, the output of five major steel products has decreased, but the molten iron output has increased by 26,300 tons to 2.4244 million tons month-on-month, and the iron ore port inventory has slightly increased. In the long term, the supply of iron ore is expected to gradually increase, the demand will remain relatively low, and the port inventory will enter the accumulation channel, with the pattern of oversupply remaining unchanged. Due to short-term sentiment disturbances, the iron ore price has risen significantly and broken through the 750 yuan/ton mark, and it is expected to be strong [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: After the first round of price increases, the cost of coke still faces pressure, and the market's expectation of future price increases has strengthened. With the molten iron output remaining high, the current fundamentals of coke are relatively healthy, and the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. The overall operation of coking plants is stable, with smooth shipments, and the enthusiasm of traders to purchase goods remains high, resulting in a slightly tight supply of spot goods. With the arrival of high temperatures and the rainy season in various regions, downstream demand has weakened, but the current profitability is still acceptable, and the overall enthusiasm for operation is good, with the molten iron output continuing to rise. Currently, steel mills' enthusiasm for purchasing coke has slightly increased. The current supply of coke spot goods is tight, and the price of upstream coking coal still has support. It is expected that the coke price will remain strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the trends of molten iron and the supply side of coking coal and coke in the later stage [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: The "anti-involution" has triggered a rise in the positive sentiment on the supply side. Although the Central Urban Work Conference did not meet expectations, the expectation of stable growth in the steel industry has continued to boost market sentiment, and the futures price has continued to rise. In the off-season, the demand for building materials has declined month-on-month. The profits of five major steel products are acceptable, and the output has declined month-on-month. The pressure on the total steel inventory is not obvious, and the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent. In June, infrastructure was weak, real estate was stable, and exports were strong, basically in line with previous expectations. External demand exports were overdrawn in advance, and real estate investment continued to decline. Total demand is unlikely to show an anti-seasonal performance. On the basis of no increase in total annual demand, an obvious pattern of high in the front and low in the back will be formed. In the short term, the expectation of stable growth in the steel industry has improved market sentiment. Attention should be paid to whether more policies will be introduced at the Politburo meeting at the end of July. Finished steel products are currently supported by the macro and policy aspects [2]. - **Glass**: The "anti-involution" trading may continue, and the Politburo meeting is approaching, with the macro situation being neutral and strong. On the demand side, the glass deep-processing orders have weakened slightly month-on-month, but the speculative demand brought by the rising futures price is relatively strong. On the supply side, the output is expected to increase after the glass produced by the previously ignited production lines comes out, and the pressure on the supply side still exists. To meet the seasonal destocking of glass, the daily melting volume needs to be reduced to below 154,000 tons. There are many disturbances in market sentiment. The inventory of glass in the middle and lower reaches is low, with room for replenishment, but the rigid demand has not recovered. In the long term, the real estate industry is still in the adjustment cycle, and the year-on-year decline in the completed floor area of houses is relatively large, making it difficult for the glass demand to rebound significantly. In the short term, continuous observation is needed to see if the actual demand can improve [2]. Financial Market - **Stock index futures/options**: On the previous trading day, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.60%, the CSI 50 index rose by 0.74%, the CSI 500 index rose by 0.28%, and the CSI 1000 index rose by 0.25%. Funds flowed into the basic metals and fertilizer and pesticide sectors, while funds flowed out of the electronic components and automobile parts sectors. The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting was held in Durban, South Africa. China will implement a more proactive fiscal policy and expand high-level opening up in the second half of the year. The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US approval of the sale of NVIDIA H20 chips to China, emphasizing that cooperation and win-win results are the right path. The market's risk aversion sentiment has eased, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield to maturity of the 10-year Chinese government bond remained unchanged, FR007 decreased by 4 basis points, and SHIBOR3M remained unchanged. The central bank conducted 187.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate, with a net investment of 102.8 billion yuan on the day. The market interest rate is consolidating, and the Treasury bond price has rebounded slightly. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - **Precious metals**: - **Gold**: In the context of a high-interest rate environment and the reconstruction of globalization, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The actions of central banks to purchase gold are crucial, reflecting the concentration of "decentralization" and risk aversion needs. In terms of monetary attributes, Trump's "Make America Great Again" bill has been successfully passed, which may exacerbate the US debt problem and lead to cracks in the US dollar's currency credit. In the process of de-dollarization, the de-fiat currency attribute of gold is prominent. In terms of financial attributes, in the global high-interest rate environment, the substitution effect of gold as a zero-yield bond for bonds has weakened, and its sensitivity to the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds has decreased. In terms of risk aversion attributes, although the geopolitical risk has weakened marginally, Trump's tariff policy has intensified global trade tensions, and the market's risk aversion demand remains strong, which has become an important factor in boosting the gold price in stages. In terms of commodity attributes, the demand for physical gold in China has increased significantly, and the central bank has restarted gold purchases since November last year and has increased its holdings for eight consecutive months. Currently, the logic driving the rise of the gold price has not completely reversed. The Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy may be short-term disturbing factors. It is expected that the Fed's interest rate policy will be more cautious this year, and the evolution of the tariff policy and geopolitical conflicts will dominate the change in market risk aversion sentiment. According to the latest US data, the non-farm payrolls data shows that the labor market is relatively resilient, with the non-farm employment population exceeding market expectations and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. The PCE data in May shows that the inflation data has slowed down, with the core PCE rising by 2.7% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, and the PCE rising by 2.3% year-on-year, in line with market expectations, indicating the resilience of core inflation. The CPI in June rose by 2.7% year-on-year, in line with market expectations and rebounding from the previous month, indicating the resilience of inflation. With the progress of trade negotiations, the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to weaken. In the short term, the weakening of the US dollar, combined with the uncertainty of geopolitics and tariff policies, and the debate over the Fed's independence have boosted the demand for risk aversion funds, but some funds have shifted to alternative assets such as silver. It is expected that the gold price will maintain high-level oscillations [4]. - **Silver**: It is expected to operate strongly [4]. Light Industry and Agricultural Products - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, the spot market price of pulp was strong. The price of some coniferous pulp in the spot market rose by 20 - 70 yuan/ton, and the price of some broadleaf pulp in the spot market rose by 70 yuan/ton. The latest FOB price of coniferous pulp decreased by 20 US dollars to 720 US dollars/ton, and the latest FOB price of broadleaf pulp decreased by 60 US dollars to 500 US dollars/ton. The decline in the cost price has weakened the support for the pulp price. The profitability of the paper industry is at a low level, and the inventory pressure of paper mills is relatively large, with low acceptance of high-priced pulp. The demand is in the off-season, and raw materials are purchased on a rigid basis, which is negative for the pulp price. The pulp market presents a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the pulp price will oscillate mainly under the game between long and short positions [6]. - **Logs**: Last week, the average daily shipment volume of logs at the port was 58,800 cubic meters, a decrease of 8,100 cubic meters month-on-month. The downstream demand was poor, the orders of processing plants declined significantly, the utilization rate of the sawing machine capacity of processing plants decreased, and the average daily outbound volume dropped below 60,000 cubic meters. In June, the volume of logs shipped from New Zealand to China was 1.406 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.3% from the previous month. The expected arrival volume this week is 192,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 44% month-on-month. As of last week, the log port inventory was 3.22 million cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters month-on-month. The spot market price is relatively stable. The spot market price in Shandong is stable at 740 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous week, and the price in the Jiangsu market is stable at 750 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous week. The latest CFR quote in July is 114 US dollars/cubic meter, an increase of 4 US dollars from the previous month, with a maximum of 117 US dollars, and the cost-side support has increased. In the short term, the arrival volume of logs has decreased again, the supply pressure has eased, and the sudden hurricane in the key ports of New Zealand's logs has affected the log shipments, stimulating the rise of the log price. Although the average daily outbound volume is below 60,000 cubic meters, the "anti-involution" policy in China has boosted market sentiment, and the shortage of the 6-meter medium A, the mainstream delivery product in the Taicang area, has promoted the price increase. It is expected that the log price will maintain a strong oscillation [6]. - **Oils and meals**: - **Oils**: In June, the production of Malaysian palm oil was 1.692 million tons, a decrease of 4.5% month-on-month, while the inventory increased to 2.03 million tons, the fourth consecutive month of growth, mainly due to the unexpected decline in exports. The increase in the export tariff in July may further slow down the export pace. The production activity of US biodiesel is increasing, which supports the demand for soybean oil as the main raw material, and is also boosted by Indonesia's B40 policy. Affected by the large arrival of South American soybeans and the high-pressure crushing of oil mills, the domestic soybean oil inventory has accelerated the growth, the palm oil inventory has rebounded, and the rapeseed oil inventory has continued to decline, but the year-on-year inventory pressure is still high. The inventory of the three major oils has continued to rise, with sufficient supply and a demand off-season, lacking its own driving force. However, it benefits from the expectation of biodiesel, and the oils are expected to oscillate more in the short term. Attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean-producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - **Meals**: The estimated output of US soybeans has been reduced, but the increase in the crushing volume cannot offset the decrease in the export volume, and the final increase in the year-end inventory exceeds expectations. The growth of US soybean crops is good, and the improvement of the US crop rating has strengthened the expectation of a bumper autumn harvest. However, the expected consumption of US soybean crushing is continuously driven by the favorable biofuel policy, which supports the US soybean futures price. The agricultural trade agreement reached between the US and Indonesia has increased the market's confidence in future soybean export demand, and the US soybean price has risen. The expected arrival volume of imported soybeans in China in July is about 10 million tons, and the operating rate of oil mills remains relatively high. Some oil mills in certain regions are facing the pressure of full storage of soybean meal, and the phenomenon of oil mills urging提货 has increased, with the提货 volume of soybean meal at a high level. It is expected that soybean meal will oscillate more in the short term under the boost of cost and the expectation of US soybean exports. Attention should be paid to the weather of US soybeans and the arrival situation of soybeans [6]. - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs continues to show a downward trend. The average trading weight of live pigs across the country has dropped to 124.91 kilograms. From a regional perspective, the average trading weights of live pigs in various provinces have risen and fallen, but the overall trend is downward. Recently, the increase in temperature has slowed down the weight gain rate of live pigs. In addition, after the price difference between fat pigs and standard pigs turned positive, the price of large pigs was relatively high, and slaughtering enterprises increased their procurement efforts for low-priced standard pigs to relieve the procurement pressure, resulting in a decline in the overall average procurement weight. However, some large-scale farms in certain regions have chosen to hold back pigs for weight gain based on the bullish expectation of the large pig market, driving a slight increase in the average trading weight of live pigs in the local area. Looking forward to the future, as the breeding end may continue to adopt the weight loss strategy, and slaughtering enterprises will still focus on purchasing standard pigs, it is expected that the average trading weight of live pigs in most regions still has room to decline. However, considering the continuous phenomenon of holding back pigs for weight gain in some regions, it is expected that the average trading weight of live pigs across the country may continue to decline slightly. The average settlement price of live pigs of key slaughtering enterprises has risen slightly to 15.55 yuan/kg, a slight increase of 0.98% month-on-month. From the price trend, the settlement price shows an oscillating downward trend. Affected by factors such as the accelerated slaughtering rhythm of the breeding end and the impact of high temperatures on terminal consumption, although the overall average price has increased slightly compared with last week, the price has fallen from the high level due to the price reduction and procurement by slaughtering enterprises. At the same time, the average operating rate of key slaughtering enterprises this week has dropped to 31.97%, a decrease of 0.97 percentage points month-on-month. The decline in the operating rate is mainly due to two factors: on the one hand, the supply of live pigs is sufficient, and the procurement difficulty of enterprises has decreased