Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that trade between China and other member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has shown steady growth, with a trade volume of $247.7 billion in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [1][3] - Over the past five years, trade volume between China and SCO member countries has consistently surpassed $300 billion, $400 billion, and $500 billion, reaching a historical high of $512.4 billion in 2024, which represents a growth of 2.7% compared to the previous year [6][8] Group 2 - China primarily exports electromechanical products, automobiles and parts, clothing, and chemicals to other member countries, while importing oil and gas, agricultural products, coal, and minerals [6] - As of June 2025, China's direct investment stock in other member countries exceeds $40 billion, with investments expanding from traditional sectors like energy and infrastructure to emerging fields such as digital economy and green development [10] - Chinese enterprises are implementing clean energy projects in regional countries, including wind, solar, and hydropower, and are accelerating cooperation in areas like 5G, internet, and smart cities to assist local traditional industries in upgrading [10]

周度经济观察 国投证券宏观定期报告 ————名义增速筑底，股债切换启动 袁方1张端怡2 魏薇（联系人）3 2025 年 08 月 12 日 内容提要 7 月的贸易数据基本打消了市场对下半年出口塌方的担忧，在海外经济预期 修复、中美经贸关系稳定的背景下，下半年出口有望维持高增长，并对宏观经济 形成有力支撑。 7 月 PPI 环比增速的抬升主要源于"反内卷"政策的影响，尽管工业品价格 向上的弹性存在不确定性，但是价格的底部或许已经明晰，这意味着 PPI 同比增 速未来处于回升的趋势中。 近期居民与金融机构开始增持风险资产、减持安全资产，这一行为除了与债 券收益率水平过低、股市年初以来持续上涨有关以外，可能也反映出市场主体在 逐步修正对经济的预期。尽管经济明显起色尚需时日，但经济下行压力最大的阶 段可能正在过去。这一宏观场景的变化构成了股债切换最根本的驱动，当前我们 处于偏早期阶段。 风险提示：（1）地缘政治风险 （2）政策出台超预期 本报告版权属于国投证券股份有限公司，各项声明请参见报告尾页。 1宏观团队负责人，yuanfang@essence.com.cn，S1450520080004 2宏观分析师，zhang ...

特约评论员熊夏柠 8月7日，据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普签署的关税行政令7日生效，对数十个贸易伙伴加征关税。目 前，美国已与英国、越南、印度尼西亚、菲律宾、日本、欧盟、韩国等达成贸易协议，但在关键细节上 存在明显分歧，如何落实仍存诸多不确定因素。 美国政府启动了大规模的所谓"对等关税"，令日本无论是政府还是企业都对增长预期进行了一定程度 的"下修"。8月7日，日本内阁府公布经济预期估算结果称，2025年度实际GDP增长率预计为0.7%，较今 年1月的预期目标下修了0.5个百分点。 这当然是来自于美国关税政策带来的不确定性冲击。企业这边也不乐观，日本出口商品中汽车及零配件 占主要地位，而七大车企一片"哀嚎"。丰田等七大车企近日公布了2025第一财季（4~6月）财报，七大 车企预计2025财年（2025年4月~2026年3月）合并营业利润或将缩水约2.67万亿日元（约为1302亿元人 民币）。丰田汽车的估计更加保守和悲观，公司预期2025财年（截至2026年3月）的合并净利润预期将 同比减少44%，降至2.66万亿日元（约为人民币1293亿元人民币币）。斯巴鲁更是利润减半，公司发布 消息称，预计2025财年（20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July 2025, China's import and export exceeded expectations, with export growth mainly due to increased exports to Europe and South Korea, and import growth mainly driven by price increases of commodities such as integrated circuits and agricultural products. The trade surplus was lower than expected due to a significant increase in imports. In the future, exports are expected to be supported by improved Sino - US trade and short - term US rush to import, while import growth is expected to remain low [1][3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Import and Export Totals - In July 2025, the total import and export volume (in US dollars) was 545.323 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%, up 2.0 percentage points from the previous value. The top trading partners in terms of trade volume were ASEAN (trade volume of 86 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.3%, trade share of 15.78%), the EU (74.5 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.42%, trade share of 13.67%), the US (47.9 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 21%, trade share of 8.79%), South Korea (28.1 billion, a year - on - year increase of 2.28%, trade share of 5.14%), and Japan (27.4 billion, a year - on - year increase of 9.95%, trade share of 5.02%) [1][3]. 3.2 Exports - In July 2025, exports were 321.784 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, better than the expected 5.4% and up 1.3 percentage points from the previous value. The top export destinations were ASEAN (export volume of 54.6 billion, a year - on - year increase of 16.59%, export share of 16.98%), the EU (50 billion, a year - on - year increase of 9.24%, export share of 15.54%), the US (35.8 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 21.67%, with the decline widening by 5.54 percentage points, export share of 11.13%), Japan (12.5 billion, a year - on - year increase of 2.45%, export share of 3.88%), and South Korea (12.4 billion, a year - on - year increase of 4.63%, export share of 3.84%). The top export products were mechanical and electrical products (accounting for 60.2%, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%), of which high - tech products accounted for 24.3%, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. The top five mechanical and electrical products were electronic components (14.23%), automobile and auto parts (10.37%), electrical equipment (9.67%), automatic data processing equipment and parts (8.69%), and household appliances (4.29%) [3][4]. 3.3 Imports - In July 2025, imports were 223.539 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%, better than the expected - 1% and up 3 percentage points from the previous value. The top import sources were ASEAN (import volume of 31.4 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.76%, import share of 14.05%), the EU (24.5 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.58%, import share of 11.07%), Chinese Taipei (19.4 billion, a year - on - year increase of 0.45%, import share of 8.67%), South Korea (15.7 billion, a year - on - year increase of 0.51%, import share of 7.02%), and Japan (14.9 billion, a year - on - year increase of 17.13%, import share of 6.68%). The top import products were mechanical and electrical products (accounting for 40.68%, a year - on - year increase of 2.74%), of which electronic components such as integrated circuits accounted for 41.02% with a year - on - year increase of 13%. Other major import products included crude oil (10.68%), metal ores and concentrates (10.15%), and agricultural products (8.36%). In agricultural product imports, soybeans accounted for 27.44%, meat 10.99%, and dried and fresh fruits and nuts 9.33% [4]. 3.4 Trade Balance - In July 2025, the trade surplus was 98.24 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 14.93%, lower than the expected 105 billion. The largest trade surplus was in automobiles (8.3 billion, an increase of 0.826 billion), followed by auto parts (6.3 billion, a decrease of 0.036 billion). The largest trade deficits were in crude oil (23.8 billion, a decrease of 0.34 billion), integrated circuits (19.4 billion, an increase of 2.049 billion), and agricultural products (10.293 billion, a decrease of 0.112 billion) [4][5].