6 月需求仍保持两位数增长 证 券 研 究 报 告 汽车行业跟踪报告 事项： ❑ 乘联会发布数据，6 月狭义乘用车产量 242 万辆，同比+13%，环比+6%；批发 249 万辆、同比+14%、环比+7%。 评论： ❑ 投资建议：6 月行业销量表现良好，预计下半年终端市场保持较好状态，在"反 内卷"和旺销双重背景下，价格战风险下降。但市场可能担心明年补贴政策波 动所致的销量波动，压制板块投资情绪，情绪消化后板块有望迎来布局机会。 整车：推荐江淮汽车，市场依然在量和盈利层面存在分歧，我们展望相对乐观， 下半年有望验证。建议关注理想汽车、北汽蓝谷、上汽集团、赛力斯、小米集 团，其中理想关注 i8 上市，北汽、上汽关注其管理层改革、鸿蒙智行新车。 零部件：受行业 beta 影响较大，近期机器人产业链也表现较弱，我们建议低位 布局，1）今年估值相对较低、2）明年业绩增速有望 15%以上。推荐新泉股份、 星宇股份、爱柯迪、豪能股份、地平线，建议关注纽泰格。此外，2Q 预期财 报相对较好的包括，豪能、继峰、新泉、立中、爱柯迪，建议关注。 ❑ 风险提示：宏观经济、国内消费低于预期，汽车出口低于预期，新能源车销量 低于预期， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the automotive industry, particularly focusing on the mid-to-high-end market and strong alpha companies [3][4]. Core Insights - The Chinese automotive market is transitioning between the third and fourth consumption eras, with a notable expansion in mid-to-large SUVs and personalized products, indicating untapped consumer potential [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of innovative supply to stimulate market demand, highlighting products like Yu7, Zun Jie S800, and upcoming models from Li Auto as key drivers [4]. - The report suggests continued attention to strong alpha manufacturers such as Li Auto, JAC, Xiaomi, and Seres, as well as their corresponding supply chain companies [4]. Industry Update - Retail sales of passenger cars reached 570,000 units in the 26th week of 2025, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.38%. Traditional energy vehicles sold approximately 274,000 units, down 7.43%, while new energy vehicles sold 296,000 units, up 4.96%, achieving a penetration rate of 51.93% [4]. - The automotive industry experienced a total transaction value of 425.645 billion yuan this week, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 5.01% [4]. - The automotive industry index rose by 0.10% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 1.54%, indicating that the automotive sector's performance was below the broader market [11]. Market Conditions - The report notes that 123 automotive stocks rose while 159 fell this week, with the largest gainers being TaoTao Automotive, Hunan Tianyan, and Zhengyu Industrial, which saw increases of 29.8%, 21.0%, and 18.3%, respectively [15]. - Key events include the launch of the Xiaopeng G7, which exceeded pricing expectations and features advanced autonomous driving capabilities, and the opening of BYD's factory in Brazil, enhancing its presence in the Latin American market [5][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic strong alpha manufacturers such as BYD, Geely, and Xiaopeng, as well as companies involved in the trend of smart technology, including Jianghuai Automobile and Seres [4]. - It also suggests monitoring state-owned enterprise reforms, particularly with SAIC Motor, and identifying component manufacturers with strong growth potential, such as Fuyao Glass and New Spring [4]. Key Events - Xiaopeng G7 was launched with a starting price of 195,800 yuan, featuring advanced AI capabilities and a significant increase in autonomous driving performance [5][41]. - BYD's new factory in Brazil aims for an annual production capacity of 150,000 vehicles, with plans to expand to 300,000 units, marking a significant step in its global strategy [8][9].

2025 年 06 月 26 日 Robotaxi 开启试运营，人形机器人中长期信心 不改 表现 1M 3M 12M 汽车(申万) -1.4 -2.6 30.6 沪深 300 2.6 1.0 13.8 市场表现 20 30 40 50 (%) 汽车 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -20 相关研究 1、《汽车行业周报：人形机器人渠 道+应用场景加速落地，汽车供应链 迎来 60 天账期新变革》2025-06-16 2、《汽车行业周报：Figure 展示强 大物流分拣能力，尊界 S800 上市七 天大定突破 3,600 台》2025-06-10 3 、 《 汽 车 行 业 周 报 ： 特 斯 拉 Optimus2027 年将登上火星，人形机 器人实用性有望得到进一步验证》 2025-06-04 ▌中长期信心不改，依旧看好特斯拉人形机器人产 业链 历史角度来看，创新产品量产初始阶段往往困难重重。2017 年 7 月，马斯克承诺，Model 3 在年底前将达到每月生产 2 万辆，也就是周产能 5000 辆。 但三个月后，Model 3 仅生 产了 2425 台，产能受限于总装、油漆、车身、模块生产、包 ...

理想汽车 20250622 摘要 理想汽车 I6 定位五座中大型纯电 SUV，采用 800V 架构和 5C 磷酸铁锂 电池，充电 10 分钟续航 500 公里，提供后驱和四驱版本，在空间、动 力和充电效率方面具有竞争力，或将影响消费者对纯电 SUV 的偏好。 截至 2025 年 6 月，理想汽车自建超充站超过 2,500 座，计划年底达到 4,000 座，显著提升了纯电产品竞争力，解决了早期电动车充电不便的 痛点，巩固了市场地位，并可能推动纯电车型销量增长。 理想汽车新品发布节奏加快，I8 定档及 I6 信息公布预示着新一轮造势周 期，有望增强消费者信心，提高市场关注度，从被动等待转向主动宣发， 有助于提升品牌影响力和市场表现，或将刺激股票市场。 理想汽车的投资逻辑基于两阶段机会：销量预期上调改变市场判断，以 及规模效应提升单车盈利。目前处于第一阶段初期，新车型和技术创新 可能带来销量预期上调，使其在下半年整车厂中最具投资潜力，值得关 注。 市场对高端纯电动汽车的观望态度正在转变，随着电车置换购需求释放， 以及理想 I 系列产品在 30-40 万价格区间内竞争优势明显，预计高端纯 电动汽车需求将大幅增长，或将 ...

汽车和汽车零部件行业周报 20250622 新车型密集催化 自主高端化向上 2025 年 06 月 22 日 ➢ 本周数据：2025 年 6 月第 2 周（6.9-6.15）乘用车销量 45.9 万辆，同比 +26.4%，环比+26.8%；新能源乘用车销量 25.2 万辆，同比+43.4%，环比 +24.8%；新能源渗透率 54.8%，环比+0.6pct。 ➢ 本周行情：汽车板块本周表现弱于市场。本周（6 月 16 日-6 月 20 日）A 股 汽车板块下跌 2.44%，在申万子行业中排名第 24 位，表现弱于沪深 300 （+0.30%）。细分板块中，商用载客车、乘用车、汽车零部件、商用载货车、摩 托车及其他、汽车服务分别下跌 1.06%、2.35%、2.39%、2.71%、3.24%、3.89%。 ➢ 本周观点：本月建议关注核心组合【吉利汽车、比亚迪、理想汽车、小鹏汽 车、小米集团、伯特利、拓普集团、新泉股份、沪光股份、春风动力】。 ➢ 乘用车基本面向上 建议关注强产品周期车企。6 月第 1/2 乘用车销量 36.2/45.9 万辆，同比+12.4%/+26.4%，环比-22.3%/+26.8%；新能源渗 ...

理想汽车 20250615 摘要 理想汽车短期聚焦 20 万以上 SUV 和 MPV 市场，通过增程和纯电产品 线扩张销量，保守销量预期 75 万辆，对应利润约 150 亿，市盈率 20 倍，显示出稳健的增长潜力。 理想汽车致力于成为消费电子领域的苹果或游戏领域的任天堂，通过 AI、自驾技术、大模型和智能语音助手等技术投入，打造独特创意和极 致体验，实现"创造移动的家、创造幸福的家"的使命。 2019 年至 2024 年，20 万元以上汽车市场快速扩容，年复合增速近 11%，达到 680 万辆规模（含进口车），理想汽车等新势力品牌贡献了 显著的销量增量。 20 万元以上 SUV 市场规模接近 400 万辆（含进口车），市占率从 2019 年的 50%增长到 2024 年的 60%，主要受益于家庭出行需求和二 三胎家庭数量增加。 理想汽车在 20 万元以上 SUV 市场中市占率已达 13%，位居第一，销量 天花板预计为 75 至 107 万辆，中性估计约 100 万辆，显示出强大的市 场竞争力。 Q&A 今年（2025 年）理想汽车的核心竞争力分析及目标市值预估是什么？ 根据东吴证券的分析，理想汽车在智能化趋势 ...

智能驾驶方面，近期将迎来有 tesla、robotaxi 和理想小鹏 vla/华为 ads 4.0 落地拐点，未来或在高阶智驾层面仍有政策引导和激励。 新车发布周期（小鹏 g7，理想 i8，小米 y u7）有望驱动市场预期升温。目前主流主机厂标配激光雷达的趋势已基本确定，持续看好头 部主机厂【小鹏汽车】【理想汽车】【小米集团】建议关注激光雷达【禾赛科技】【大众速腾】和芯片提供商【地平线】。 IP 方面，下周布鲁可调入港股通；卡游港股 IPO 进入关键阶段；资金开始布局消费复苏与 I P 经济主线。叠加恒生指数成分股调整， 增量资金配置需求提升。当前时点港股 IP 经济板块兼具高景气、强催化与估值性价比，建议把握卡游 I PO、暑期消费旺季及财报窗口 期的结构性机会。建议关注，高景气度潮玩赛道核心标的【泡泡玛特】【布鲁可】【名创优品】，全链条变现 的 IP 运营与内容方，I P 代运营【羚邦集团】、IP 运营【巨星传奇】【乐华娱乐】、IP 方【哔哩哔哩】、【腾讯】、【网易】、【阅文集团】、【阿里影业】、 【中国儒意】、【猫眼娱乐】、【创梦天地】、【中手游】、【小黄鸭德盈】等。 海外行业报告 | 行业动态研究 港 ...

汽车和汽车零部件行业周报 20250608 乘用车需求向好 智驾下沉与高端跃迁共振 2025 年 06 月 08 日 ➢ 本周数据：2025 年 5 月第 5 周（5.26-6.1）乘用车销量 46.6 万辆，同比 +18.3%，环比+16.7%；新能源乘用车销量 24.7 万辆，同比+30.1%，环比 +11.6%；新能源渗透率 53.1%，环比-2.4pct。 ➢ 本周行情：汽车板块本周表现弱于市场。本周（6 月 3 日-6 月 6 日）A 股汽 车板块下跌 0.01%，在申万子行业中排名第 25 位，表现弱于沪深 300（0.96%）。 细分板块中，摩托车及其他、汽车服务、汽车零部件分别上涨 2.66%、0.92%、 0.48%，乘用车、商用载客车、商用载货车分别下跌 0.12%、2.67%、5.93%。 ➢ 本周观点：本月建议关注核心组合【吉利汽车、比亚迪、小鹏汽车、小米集 团、伯特利、拓普集团、新泉股份、沪光股份、春风动力】。 ➢ 智驾下沉与高端跃迁共振，看好智驾加速落地。2025 年 5 月 28 日小鹏 M03 加推 Max 版（含 502km/600km 续航）及 Plus 版，上市 1 小时 ...

Summary of Li Auto's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Li Auto - **Industry**: Automotive, specifically focusing on electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrid models Key Points and Arguments Market Performance - As of April 2025, Li Auto achieved a market share of **14.1%**, maintaining its position as the top-selling Chinese automotive brand for **14 consecutive months** in the **20万元** and above new energy vehicle market [2][3] - Cumulative deliveries exceeded **1.26 million units**, with the Li L series reaching a milestone of **1 million units** delivered by April 2025 [3] Product Development and Launch Plans - Li Auto plans to launch two new pure electric SUV models: **I8** in July 2025 and **I6** in September 2025 [2][4] - The company has introduced the **Mega** and **L series** with upgraded chips and laser radar to enhance driving assistance features [2][4] - The **ALMAC 4G** model, developed in-house, aims to improve the perception and adaptability of the driving assistance system [2][6] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, total revenue reached **259 billion RMB**, with a stable gross margin of approximately **20%** [2][7] - GAAP net profit was **6 billion RMB**, while non-GAAP net profit stood at **10 billion RMB** [2][7] - Cash reserves exceeded **100 billion RMB**, providing a solid foundation for future growth [2][7] Gross Margin and Future Expectations - The gross margin showed a slight increase, influenced by financial information, despite a **3,000 RMB** drop in average selling price (ASP) [8] - The company expects steady growth in gross margin in the upcoming quarters [8] Charging Network Expansion - Li Auto has opened **2,350** supercharging stations with over **12,280** charging piles, aiming for **2,500** stations before the I8 launch and **4,000** by year-end [4][10] Research and Development (R&D) Budget - The R&D budget for 2025 is estimated between **11 billion to 12 billion RMB**, with approximately **4.5 billion RMB** allocated for AI-related research [4][12] - The company emphasizes collaboration with partners to enhance R&D efficiency and share results [19] Sales Strategy in Lower-Tier Cities - Li Auto is expanding its sales network and optimizing store layouts in lower-tier cities to boost sales [13][14] - The company has launched the **Star Plan** to improve service quality and customer satisfaction [13] International Market Strategy - Li Auto's international strategy is a long-term plan, focusing on understanding local user needs and building brand recognition over the next ten years [18] Product Strategy and Market Trends - The company is adapting to trends in the electric vehicle market, particularly in the extended-range electric vehicle segment, which is expected to see increased battery capacity [16] - Li Auto plans to expand its product offerings to include sedans and MPVs based on user demand [17] AI and Talent Management - Li Auto is focusing on AI advancements and talent acquisition in areas like virtual reality management [20] - The company aims to create a platform for personal value realization rather than relying solely on high salaries to retain talent [20] Additional Important Insights - The company is cautious about increasing R&D spending significantly, preferring to collaborate with partners to mitigate risks [19] - Li Auto's strategy includes a balanced approach to product offerings in the **20万元** and above market, with expectations of equal market share between extended-range and pure electric vehicles in the long term [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is expected to enter a new product cycle for pure electric vehicles in the second half of 2025, coinciding with the launch of advanced intelligent driving features [3] - The first pure electric SUV, the Li Auto i8, is set to be released in July, followed by another new model, the i6, in September [3] - The company has established 2,355 supercharging stations as of May 29, with plans to exceed 2,500 by the i8 launch and reach over 4,000 by the end of 2025 [3] - The L series of vehicles will feature significant upgrades, including the new 2025 models equipped with advanced AI and hardware for intelligent driving [3] Financial Forecasts - The company's revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted to 143.64 billion, 223.30 billion, and 236.15 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year change of -0.6%, +55.5%, and +5.8% respectively [4] - The net profit forecasts for the same period have been revised to 8.16 billion, 13.66 billion, and 15.41 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of +1.6%, +67.4%, and +12.8% respectively [4] - Corresponding EPS for 2025 to 2027 is projected at 3.81, 6.38, and 7.20 RMB, with P/E ratios of 27, 16, and 14 [4]