关于AI的资讯铺天盖地，但它与普通人有什么关系？ AI加速迭代， 未来它将如何颠覆世界？我们是否真正看清了？ 全球科技创新产业专家、海银资本创始合伙人 王煜全在前不久的演讲中提到，AI的本质绝非简单的"节能增效"，而是实现"人类经验的规模化"。从瓦特蒸 汽机到福特T型车，历史上每一次技术革命的真正爆发点，都源于开创了全新的市场需求。而AI时代的黄金机遇，正藏在"复杂智能服务"的规模化中——专 家级、个性化、持续普惠的服务将重塑产业逻辑。 本文深度拆解了AI发展的四阶段路径与未来社会图景，并给出抓住浪潮的四大核心行动指南。如果你正在寻找AI时代的真实机会，这是一份不可错过的认 知地图。 王煜全老师曾多次来到混沌授课，相关课程笔记阅读链接： 王煜全：出海只是潮流，全球化才会永恒 王煜全：未来的黄金30年，AI能带来哪些机会？ 作者 | 王煜全，全球科技创新产业专家、海银资本创始合伙人 编辑 | 高级笔记达人 天朗明月 责编 | 柒 本文转载自公众号"笔 记侠"，内容来自 王煜全老师在 前哨科技特训营的分享 AI的本质是"人类经验的规模化" AI时代的核心机会是让人类的经验可以被复制，并且催生出复杂的智能服务这种全 ...

Group 1 - The essence of AI is the scalability of human experience, leading to the emergence of complex intelligent services as a new business model [2][9] - AI development has two phases: cost-saving efficiency and market expansion, with true GDP growth occurring only when market-expanding applications are widely adopted [3][4] - Historical patterns show that great technologies eventually create new markets, as seen with the steam engine and the Ford Model T, which transformed transportation and created significant demand [4][5][6][7] Group 2 - The AI revolution's core is service scalability, transitioning from energy-saving to new market creation, which is where the true potential of technology lies [8][9] - Future AI services will have four key characteristics: continuous service, expert-level service, and inclusive service, enabling personalized and widespread access [10][11] - Continuous service allows for deep understanding of individual needs over generations, enhancing service precision beyond traditional methods [12][13] Group 3 - Expert-level services will become widely available and affordable due to AI, transforming previously scarce and expensive expert services into accessible options for the masses [14][15] - Inclusive services will ensure that essential services are affordable and widely available, allowing for a large user base to benefit from new offerings [16][18] - The shift from product ownership to service enjoyment will redefine consumer behavior, emphasizing the need for service over mere product acquisition [20][21] Group 4 - The current technological foundation supports the emergence of complex AI services, with advancements in complex reasoning, long-term memory, and third-party functionality [22][23][26] - AI is evolving towards specialized capabilities rather than general intelligence, focusing on domain expertise to meet specific user needs [27][28] - The development of AI will progress through four stages, culminating in complex, personalized services that address intricate user requirements [28][29] Group 5 - Companies must redefine their identity, recognizing their potential and the importance of understanding market needs over merely mastering technology [35][41] - Successful examples like Walmart and UPS illustrate the significance of identifying and addressing emerging market demands through innovative business models [42][44] - Execution involves focusing on a specific industry, mastering relevant tools, and continuously accumulating knowledge to enhance expertise [45][46][49] Group 6 - Predictive capabilities are crucial for anticipating market trends and positioning effectively, allowing companies to capitalize on emerging opportunities [50][52] - Companies must maintain confidence in their predictions and be prepared to act on them, balancing timing and market understanding to seize opportunities [54][56] - A systematic approach to understanding industry dynamics and refining predictions will enhance decision-making and strategic positioning [58][59]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market is transitioning from aggressive high-end marketing and price wars to a focus on value and practicality, indicating a maturation of the industry [2][6][20]. Group 1: Market Trends - Consumers are becoming fatigued with high-end marketing and flashy features, leading to a decline in the effectiveness of low-price competition [2]. - The automotive industry is moving towards a model where the focus is on delivering real value that meets consumer expectations, rather than just marketing gimmicks [2][20]. - Historical examples from the U.S., Germany, and Japan illustrate that automotive maturity is characterized by a focus on universal and rational value, which becomes a collective memory for consumers [6][20]. Group 2: Product Development - The launch of the Huawei and SAIC collaboration, the SUV "尚界 H5," achieved 50,000 orders within 18 hours, showcasing strong market demand [11]. - The "尚界 H5" emphasizes practical smart features, such as comprehensive driving assistance and parking capabilities, which enhance user experience and safety [11][13]. - The vehicle's design integrates traditional automotive strengths with modern technology, ensuring reliability and safety for everyday use [13][15]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The current consumer mindset prioritizes safety, space, and smart features over brand prestige or unique configurations, reflecting a shift towards rational consumption [20][22]. - The "尚界 H5" aims to reduce decision-making anxiety for families by offering a straightforward, value-driven purchasing experience [15][24]. - The vehicle's pricing strategy and participatory benefits are designed to enhance transparency and lower decision costs for consumers [17][20]. Group 4: Industry Implications - The transition towards rational consumption is seen as a pivotal moment in the automotive industry, where the focus shifts from storytelling to delivering high-frequency value [16][20]. - The "尚界 H5" aligns with historical automotive milestones by providing a comprehensive solution that meets everyday needs, thus establishing itself as a potential "symbolic vehicle" for the current era [22][23]. - The emphasis on practical features and user-friendly technology signifies a broader trend towards making smart and safe vehicles accessible to the general public [23][24].

Core Insights - The article discusses the historical evolution of electric vehicles (EVs), highlighting their early development and the challenges they faced against internal combustion engine vehicles [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. Historical Development - Electric vehicles were conceptualized as early as the 19th century, with significant milestones including the first small electric car created by Thomas Davenport in 1834 and the first practical electric tricycle by Gustave Trouvé in 1881 [1][2]. - By 1900, electric vehicles were gaining popularity, with notable figures like Thomas Edison advocating for their development, while internal combustion vehicles were criticized for their noise and pollution [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The introduction of the Ford Model T in 1908 drastically reduced the cost of gasoline vehicles, making them more accessible compared to electric vehicles, which were significantly more expensive at the time [4]. - By 1920, electric vehicles had nearly disappeared from the market, with only a few specialized applications remaining [4][5]. Resurgence of Electric Vehicles - The early 21st century marked a turning point for electric vehicles, driven by environmental concerns and technological advancements, exemplified by Tesla's launch of the Roadster in 2008 [5][6]. - The global electric vehicle market saw a resurgence around 2010, with major manufacturers investing heavily in technology and governments providing support through incentives and infrastructure development [6][7]. Current Trends and Future Outlook - As of 2020, global electric vehicle sales surpassed 3 million units, with China contributing half of this figure, indicating a significant shift in consumer preferences [6][7]. - Projections suggest that by 2025, global electric vehicle sales could reach 20 million units, accounting for over 25% of new car sales, with China leading the market [7]. - Future advancements may include solid-state batteries, wireless charging, and enhanced autonomous driving technologies, although challenges such as raw material supply and battery recycling remain [7].

Core Perspective - The article discusses the evolving perception of car ownership among young people, emphasizing that the desire for a car is often driven by social and emotional factors rather than genuine necessity [1][2][10]. Group 1: Emotional and Social Influences - Young people's initial desire for vehicles often stems from a need to participate in contemporary culture and lifestyle, rather than a practical requirement [2][3]. - The narrative around car ownership has been shaped by manufacturers and media, portraying it as a symbol of independence, status, and freedom [11][12][13]. - The rise of internet companies in the automotive sector has made the purchasing process feel lighter and more impulsive, akin to buying a smartphone, which can lead to emotional consumption rather than informed decision-making [15][21]. Group 2: Risks of Simplified Decision-Making - The simplification of car buying decisions can result in a lack of understanding of the long-term implications of ownership, such as safety, maintenance, and depreciation [20][25]. - The rapid advancement of technologies like smart driving assistance has outpaced public understanding, leading to potential misuse and serious accidents among young drivers [29][30]. - There is a need for companies to take responsibility for educating users about the complexities of car ownership, especially in the context of safety [30]. Group 3: The Importance of Informed Choices - The article stresses that the first car should be a thoughtful choice rather than a decision influenced by social media trends or peer pressure [32][35]. - The significance of the first car lies in its representation of personal decision-making and independence, rather than merely fulfilling societal expectations [34][36]. - It is crucial for individuals to discern whether their desire for a vehicle is a genuine need or a result of external influences, ensuring that their choices reflect their true lifestyle and values [35][37].

Economic Outlook - The nominal GDP growth rate in China is projected to be 4.5% in 2025, with real GDP growth stabilizing at around 5%[129] - The external demand continues to be a major driver of growth, with foreign trade increasingly contributing to China's economic recovery[20] Trade and Tariff Implications - The U.S. tariff levels are expected to rise above 25% by 2025, surpassing the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act levels[85] - The potential scenarios for U.S. tariff strategies include partial tariffs, comprehensive tariffs, and forming alliances against China, which could lead to significant economic restructuring[88] AI and Economic Transformation - AI is seen as a potential new "Ford Model," driving investment and productivity, but it may also lead to reduced job demand, particularly in low-skill sectors[78] - The rapid increase in private sector investment in AI indicates a shift towards enhancing operational efficiency rather than creating new industries[73] Gold and Monetary Policy - The relationship between U.S. trade policies and gold prices suggests a potential return to mercantilist principles, impacting monetary stability and inflation[100] - Historical shifts in trade policy have consistently influenced the monetary order, with the U.S. moving from a gold standard to a credit-based system[97] Long-term Strategies - Long-term responses to the challenges posed by AI, tariffs, and gold should focus on income distribution reforms to stimulate domestic demand[108] - The restructuring of production capacity is essential to address inefficiencies and improve profitability in the face of external pressures[115]

然而，电动汽车的衰落来得相当突然，这要归因于亨利·福特（Henry Ford）的 T 型车以及其他内燃机汽车在价格、续航里程和加油便利性方面压倒了 电动汽车——尽管目前特斯拉及其竞争对手取得了巨大进步，但汽油车至今仍保持着这些优势。 在接下来的几十年里，发明家和工程师们并没有完全放弃电动汽车。商业兴趣在半个世纪里逐渐减弱，但实验性的车辆——通常基于汽油车型改造 ——却在缓慢地推动着这项技术的发展。 ↓1910 年，在特内沃德经销商处等待买家选购的福特 T 型车。该店 1903 年开业，自称是全球最古老的福特经销店。 图片来源： Automotive News档案照片 由全球政治冲突引发的石油供应短缺的冲击，促使各国政府和私营部门在 20 世纪 70 年代投资电动汽车项目，环境问题促使出台了排放法规。美国加 利福尼亚州率先推出了 1990 年的零排放汽车要求，这一要求启动了电动汽车的发展进程，尽管许多传统汽车制造商起初并不情愿，但也有许多积极 进取的初创企业参与其中。 编译 / 戈 弋 设计 / 张 萌 "在 1900 年的纽约汽车展上，展出的汽车中有三分之一是由电力驱动的。"《电动革命（The Electri ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of five significant consumer symbols over the past century, illustrating how they reflect economic cycles and the interplay of technological breakthroughs, business models, and cultural recognition, termed as the "innovation multiplier effect" [4][6]. Economic Cycles and Consumer Symbols - Economic cycles are characterized by the periodic adjustment of social resource allocation efficiency, driven by different factors such as technological revolutions, capital changes, and supply-demand dynamics [6]. - The article identifies three main economic cycles: - Kondratiev cycle (long-term, 50-60 years) driven by technological and institutional changes - Juglar cycle (medium-term, 7-11 years) focused on fixed asset updates - Kitchin cycle (short-term, 3-5 years) related to inventory adjustments [6]. - The current historical moment is marked by the resonance of these three cycles, leading to the emergence of unique consumer symbols [6]. Five Major Consumer Symbols 1. **Lipstick (1920-1930s)**: - Represents the "comfort economics" during the recession, with lipstick sales increasing by 50% despite a 25% unemployment rate in 1929 [9][12]. - The production cost of lipstick decreased by 80% due to advancements in synthetic dye technology, making it an affordable luxury [12]. 2. **Ford Model T (1908-1927)**: - Symbolizes industrial recovery and economies of scale, with production time reduced from 728 hours to 12.5 hours through assembly line techniques [13][14]. - By 1921, the Model T accounted for 56.6% of global automobile production, contributing 15% to the GDP growth of the 1920s [14]. 3. **Nike Air Jordan (1984-2020s)**: - Represents cultural dominance during the globalization boom, with Nike leveraging strategic sponsorships to gain market share in the NBA [15][19]. - Nike's focus on cultural empowerment through targeted sponsorships allowed it to become the leading sports brand [19]. 4. **iPhone (2007-present)**: - Acts as a technological revolutionary symbol, with the tech industry market cap increasing by 433% from 2009 to 2018, largely driven by Apple [20][21]. - The introduction of the iPhone 4 marked a significant shift in smartphone penetration and redefined market standards for consumer electronics [21]. 5. **Lululemon (2000-present)**: - Embodies the rise of self-care consumerism in the post-pandemic era, with a CAGR of 25% in revenue and net profit, positioning it as the second-largest sportswear company after Nike [22][25]. - Lululemon's success is attributed to its innovative product offerings and deep understanding of its target market, leading to high customer loyalty and profitability [22][24]. Insights from Consumer Symbols - Each consumer symbol reflects the historical context and market dynamics of its time, demonstrating how they adapt to economic cycles [26]. - The article emphasizes that while consumer symbols may experience peaks and troughs, their resilience often stems from meeting specific market demands, as seen with Lululemon and lipstick during economic downturns [26]. - The enduring pursuit of a better life remains a constant driver of economic innovation, regardless of the cyclical nature of the economy [26].