专题：美联储开启降息周期 机构预计10、12月再降息 看好黄金表现 四、本次会议发布最新的经济预测摘要及利率点阵图：相较于6月会议，委员会增加了对2028年的经济 预测，将2025年到2027年的GDP成长率中位数分别上调至1.6%，1.8%及1.9%，将明年及后年的失业率 中位数分别下调至4.4%及4.5%，维持今年PCE及核心PCE的预测不变，但上调明年整体PCE及核心PCE 中位数至2.6%。 | 预测中位数 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 长期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | GDP | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | | | (1.4%) | (1.6%) | (1.8%) | | (1.8%) | | 共业率 | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | | | (4.5%) | (4.5%) | (4.4%) | | (4.2%) | | PCE | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | | | (3.0%) | (2. ...

Group 1 - Long-term government bonds have become attractive for trading after significant adjustments last week [1] - The impact of production reduction measures due to anti-involution on future demand and actual inflation needs to be observed in Q4 and Q1 of the following year, with potential for interest rates to decline again [1] - In the credit bond market, the sustainability of rising bond yields needs to be monitored, and if the market rebounds, credit spreads may also narrow [1] Group 2 - In the convertible bond market, attention is recommended on anti-involution sectors that are relatively undervalued, as well as on themes like nuclear fusion, brain-machine interfaces, solid-state batteries, and robotics that may see rotation [2] - The valuation of convertible bonds continues to rise, with prices reaching historical highs due to ongoing capital inflows into convertible assets [2] - The expectation for the 10-year interest rate is to rise to the range of 4.42% to 4.50%, influenced by conservative statements from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and upcoming inflation data [2]