证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 9 月 30 日 9 月金股组合 股票代码 股票名称 601816.SH 京沪高铁 中银晨会聚焦-20250930 601233.SH 桐昆股份 002409.SZ 雅克科技 ■重点关注 300750.SZ 宁德时代 600276.SH 恒瑞医药 688085.SH 三友医疗 【策略研究】策略深度报告*王君 高天然。AI 应用商业化拐点临近，重点 关注国产算力与商业化进程较快的应用垂类赛道。 | 市场指数 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | | 3862.53 | 0.90 | | 深证成指 | | 13479.43 | 2.05 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4620.05 | 1.54 | | 中小 | 100 | 8328.93 | 1.85 | 行业表现（申万一级） | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 非银金融 | 3.84 | 煤炭 | (0.84) | | 有色金属 | 3.78 | 银行 ...

9月18日，A股三大指数集体下跌，华为算力概念午后上扬。截至收盘，烽火通信（600498.SH）涨停， 兴图新科（688081.SH）涨超10%，星环科技（688031.SH）、信安世纪（688201.SH）、大华股份 （002236.SZ）涨超5%，神州数码（000034.SZ）、高新发展（000628.SZ）等个股跟涨。 消息面上，华为副董事长、轮值董事长徐直军在2025华为全联接大会上公布昇腾AI芯片路线图，并同 步发布百万卡级超节点集群。据徐直军介绍，华为预计将于2026年第一季度推出昇腾950PR芯片，2026 年第四季度推出昇腾950DT，2027年第四季度推出昇腾960芯片，2028年第四季度推出昇腾970芯片。 徐直军在会上还提到，虽受制于先进芯片制造工艺的不可获得，但凭借30多年连接技术的积累，华为也 能用"超节点"方案做到算力能力不弱于世界先进水平。同时，据华为此前预测，随着大模型的发展，AI 智能体将从执行工具演进为决策伙伴，驱动产业革命，到2035年，全社会的算力总量将增长10万倍。 资金抢筹产业链上下游的背后，是上市公司与华为昇腾生态的深度合作。烽火通信曾在互动平台透露， 公司旗下长 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report outlines the execution of the national economic and social development plan for 2025, highlighting the positive performance of key economic indicators and the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies under the leadership of the central government [2][3][4]. Economic Performance - GDP growth for the first half of the year was 5.3%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous year [3]. - Urban employment increased by 8.2 million in the first seven months, achieving 68% of the annual target, with an average urban unemployment rate of 5.2% [3]. - The total value of goods imports and exports increased by 3.5%, with exports rising by 7.3% [3]. Structural Optimization - Fixed asset investment grew by 1.6%, while project investment excluding real estate development increased by 5.3% [3]. - Retail sales of consumer goods rose by 4.8%, a 1.3 percentage point increase from the previous year [3]. - Industrial value added for large-scale enterprises grew by 6.3%, with equipment manufacturing increasing by 9.9% [3]. Innovation and New Momentum - High-tech manufacturing value added increased by 9.5% in the first seven months, driven by breakthroughs in key technologies [3][5]. - The production of industrial robots surged by 32.9%, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles approached a growth rate of 40% [5][6]. Policy Implementation - Macroeconomic policies have been proactive, with social security, education, and health spending increasing by 9.8%, 5.7%, and 5.3% respectively in the first seven months [4]. - A more accommodative monetary policy was implemented, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio [4]. Reform and Opening Up - The construction of a unified national market is progressing, with the implementation of guidelines for market access and the promotion of the private economy [6]. - The number of countries with visa-free access has increased to 46, and the number of countries with mutual visa exemptions has reached 29 [6]. Regional Development - Economic growth in major provinces such as Jiangsu, Shandong, and Zhejiang was 5.7%, 5.6%, and 5.8% respectively in the first half of the year [7]. - Efforts to integrate urban and rural development are ongoing, with a focus on consolidating poverty alleviation achievements and promoting rural revitalization [7]. Social Welfare - Employment stabilization measures have been strengthened, with the urban unemployment rate for migrant agricultural workers at 4.9% in July [8]. - Public services and social security levels are improving, with policies aimed at enhancing basic education and expanding elderly care services [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1][4]. Core Insights - The AI sector is witnessing significant advancements, with the release of GPT-5 showing performance improvements, although it did not meet expectations for a generational leap. The overall performance gap with competitors remains limited [3][41]. - Domestic software and hardware are accelerating development, with foundational software growth at 13.8% in the first half of 2025, indicating a recovery trend and potential for further acceleration in the second half of the year [3][19]. - The capital expenditure of major US tech firms reached a record high of $99.973 billion in Q2 2025, reflecting a 77% year-on-year increase, driven by AI business growth [4][62]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - In the first half of 2025, the software industry revenue reached 7.06 trillion yuan, growing by 11.9% year-on-year, with a profit total of 858.1 billion yuan, up 12.0% [13][14]. - The IC design sector showed the highest growth at 18.8%, while cloud and big data services grew by 12.1% [18][19]. AI Developments - The number of AI-related project bids reached 574 in July 2025, with disclosed amounts totaling approximately 1.335 billion yuan, marking year-on-year increases of 422% and 540% respectively [3][79]. - Major models in the first tier include OpenAI's GPT-5, xAI's Grok 4, and Alibaba's Qwen3-235B, with the latter being recognized as the strongest open-source model globally [33][73]. Domestic Market Trends - The domestic AI chip manufacturers are experiencing accelerated growth, with the open-source CANN aiding in the establishment of a robust AI ecosystem [3][19]. - The report highlights the increasing preference for domestic software and hardware solutions amid international uncertainties [4][19]. Capital Expenditure Trends - The capital expenditures of six major US tech firms reached a new high, indicating a strong investment trend in AI and cloud infrastructure [4][62].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the computer industry [1][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in AI, particularly with the release of xAI's Grok 4, which claims to be the world's strongest AI model, achieving a training volume 100 times greater than its predecessor Grok 2 [3][60]. - Domestic AI chip companies are entering a concentrated IPO phase, with notable advancements in the domestic AI ecosystem, including the launch of Huawei's Ascend AI Cloud based on CloudMatrix 384 [3][4]. - The easing of EDA and H20 bans by the US is expected to accelerate the differentiation within the server industry, while the domestic market continues to push for localization and replacement of foreign systems [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - From January to May 2025, the software industry revenue reached 5.58 trillion yuan, growing by 11.2% year-on-year, with profit totaling 672.1 billion yuan, a 12.8% increase [13][14]. - The IC design sector showed the highest growth at 15.2%, while cloud and big data services also experienced significant growth [19][20]. AI Developments - The AI sector is witnessing rapid advancements, with Grok 4 outperforming other leading models in various assessments [60][65]. - Meta has initiated a talent acquisition strategy to bolster its AI capabilities, following setbacks with its Llama 4 model [74]. Localization Trends - The report notes that the domestic AI chip industry is moving towards a concentrated IPO phase, with significant developments in the domestic software ecosystem, including the number of applications for Huawei's Harmony OS surpassing 2,500 [3][4][19]. - The easing of US technology bans is seen as a catalyst for further domestic advancements and localization efforts [3][4]. Computing Power - The upcoming release of NVIDIA's next-generation AI server chip, GB300, is anticipated to enhance capital expenditures and chip procurement among major tech firms [4]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has launched initiatives to promote the construction of a unified national computing power service market [4].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the HUAWEI MateBook Fold marks a significant breakthrough for China's domestic computer operating system, indicating a shift in the PC industry towards self-reliance and innovation in the face of global challenges [2][3][21]. Group 1: Importance of Self-Developed Operating Systems - The necessity for self-developed computer operating systems arises from the digital era and the 5G Internet of Things, which demand systems that can support interconnectivity and collaboration among devices [2]. - The current global landscape of operating systems is highly concentrated, with Windows holding over 70% market share and macOS over 10%, making it challenging for new entrants [3]. Group 2: Technical Challenges and Innovations - HUAWEI's HarmonyOS for computers is a fully self-developed system, achieving 100% independence from Linux or Windows, with a focus on a microkernel architecture that reduces code redundancy and enhances security [5][6]. - The development process is complex, requiring a balance between compatibility with existing software and the need for innovation, as traditional systems have extensive legacy code [6]. Group 3: Ecosystem Development - Building a software ecosystem for computers is more challenging than for mobile devices, as the existing software landscape is dominated by Windows and macOS [10]. - As of May 19, 2025, over 150 dedicated computer applications have been adapted for HarmonyOS, with expectations to support over 2000 applications by the end of the year [10][13]. Group 4: User Experience and Security - HarmonyOS integrates AI deeply into the operating system, enhancing user experience through features like seamless cross-device collaboration and innovative interaction methods [18][20]. - The system employs a multi-layered security architecture, including chip-level encryption and strict application governance, to ensure data security and privacy [20]. Group 5: Industry Impact - The release of HarmonyOS for computers signifies a historic leap for China's tech industry, transitioning from a technology follower to a rule-maker in the global tech landscape [21]. - The development of HarmonyOS is expected to stimulate the domestic software industry and promote the growth of local enterprises, creating a more self-sufficient technology ecosystem [14][21].

Key Points - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, is advancing reforms in national economic and technological development zones to promote high-level opening and deep reforms for high-quality development [1] - A comprehensive financial policy package has been introduced to stabilize the market and expectations, including a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and measures to support long-term investments by insurance funds [2] - The People's Bank of China has established a 500 billion yuan re-lending program to encourage financial institutions to support key areas of service consumption and the elderly care industry, with a 1.5% interest rate and a maximum term of three years [3] - The retail and catering sectors saw a 6.3% year-on-year increase in sales during the "May Day" holiday, with significant growth in home appliances, automobiles, and communication equipment [3] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has issued a plan to promote high-quality development of public funds, including 25 measures to link fund performance with management fees and reduce investor costs [2]

Market Overview - On May 8, 2025, major indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.28% to 3352.00 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.93% to 10197.66 points, and the ChiNext Index up 1.65% to 2029.45 points. The total trading volume in the two markets was 1.2932 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 174.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2]. Sector Performance - The market showed a low open and high close throughout the day, with core broad-based indices rising. The ChiNext 50, micro-cap stocks, and the ChiNext Index led the gains, while the Sci-Tech 50 and dividend indices declined. Over 3800 stocks in the market rose, indicating strong performance [2]. - In terms of sectors, communication, national defense and military industry, and electric power equipment saw increases, while beauty care, non-ferrous metals, and steel sectors experienced declines [2]. Sector Data Summary - **Communication**: Today's increase of 2.6%, 5-day increase of 6.4%, 30-day decrease of 0.8%, and year-to-date decrease of 1.9% [3]. - **National Defense and Military Industry**: Today's increase of 2.6%, 5-day increase of 8.3%, 30-day increase of 2.6%, and year-to-date increase of 3.8% [3]. - **Electric Power Equipment**: Today's increase of 1.6%, 5-day increase of 4.7%, 30-day decrease of 6.7%, and year-to-date decrease of 4.6% [3]. - **Banking**: Today's increase of 1.1%, 5-day increase of 2.5%, 30-day increase of 2.0%, and year-to-date increase of 4.1% [3]. - **Machinery Equipment**: Today's increase of 1.0%, 5-day increase of 4.7%, 30-day decrease of 2.7%, and year-to-date increase of 10.4% [3]. Concept Themes - **Chengfei Concept**: Today's increase of 7.0%, 5-day increase of 15.2%, 30-day increase of 5.8%, and year-to-date increase of 11.0% [4]. - **Large Aircraft**: Today's increase of 3.1%, 5-day increase of 9.2%, 30-day increase of 3.0%, and year-to-date increase of 11.4% [4]. - **Copper Cable High-Speed Connection**: Today's increase of 3.0%, 5-day increase of 7.6%, 30-day increase of 0.4%, and year-to-date increase of 1.9% [4]. Industry Insights - The communication sector rose by 2.6%. Analysts suggest that the recent financial report disclosures have reduced market sentiment disturbances. The strong performance of overseas AI companies and the gradual implementation of domestic internet companies' capital expenditure plans are expected to drive demand for AI computing power [5]. - The focus is on the expansion of the Ascend industry chain and the continuous evolution of domestic AI models and computing chips. Key areas to watch include high-speed connectors, liquid cooling, servers, and AIoT smart modules [5].

Group 1: Hongmeng PC - Hongmeng PC operating system was unveiled at a communication conference, with the first device set to launch on May 19, featuring AI capabilities integrated with hardware and software [1] - The system-level AI assistant, Xiaoyi, will assist in tasks such as creating PPTs and meeting summaries, enhancing productivity [1] - Analysts from Dongwu Securities and Zhongtai Securities express optimism about the potential of multimodal AI to reduce costs and drive efficiency in enterprises, while also predicting an expansion in computing power demand [1] Group 2: Robotics - Qianxun Intelligent Technology has welcomed new shareholders, including Huawei's Hubble Technology, which is expected to enhance funding and technical collaboration in the field of embodied intelligent robots [2] - Citic Securities forecasts that 2025 will mark the year of mass production for embodied intelligent robots, indicating a significant integration of AI and robotics [2] - The production of humanoid robots is anticipated to reach a scale that will address data scarcity issues, propelling the industry into a more practical phase [2] Group 3: Low-altitude Economy - China Bank and Zhongyin Financial Leasing have signed strategic agreements with Shanghai Volant Aviation to procure 100 eVTOL aircraft, marking a significant step in the low-altitude economy [3] - The partnership aims to leverage financing and management services to support the eVTOL sector, with a total credit line of no less than 1 billion yuan [3] - Recent orders for eVTOLs signal the beginning of a large-scale development phase for China's low-altitude economy, creating a trillion-level industrial ecosystem [3] Group 4: Macro and Industry News - President Xi Jinping and President Putin signed a joint statement to deepen the strategic partnership between China and Russia, exchanging over 20 cooperation documents [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is seeking public input on the mandatory national standard for automotive door handle safety, aiming to enhance vehicle safety [4] - The Ministry of Commerce emphasizes the need to boost domestic demand, particularly in consumption, to drive economic growth [4] Group 5: Market Trends - The silicon industry is experiencing a downturn, with prices for components and batteries declining due to reduced downstream demand [5] - Chongqing Beer’s president expresses cautious optimism for the beer industry in 2025, anticipating a more favorable development environment [5] - Baidu Apollo and Shenzhou Car Rental are set to launch an autonomous vehicle rental service, indicating advancements in the autonomous driving sector [5] - CATL has released the world's first 9MWh energy storage system, showcasing innovation in energy solutions [5]

Group 1 - The HarmonyOS computer features a clean interface similar to Apple's macOS, providing a convenient and smooth user experience [1] - The distributed soft bus technology allows users to share a mouse and keyboard across Huawei devices, enabling seamless control and quick switching between screens [1] - The integration of AI capabilities with hardware and software enhances the overall functionality, making the HarmonyOS computer intelligent and efficient [2] Group 2 - Users can switch music playback from the computer to the phone seamlessly, with the application automatically closing on the computer when switching to the phone [2] - The HarmonyOS computer offers system-level AI assistance, enabling features like document creation, information extraction, meeting transcription, and device settings adjustments through voice commands [2]