电子行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 系统组装——AI 服务器升级的新驱动力 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 AI 落地不及预期；英伟达产品迭代进度不达预期；相关公司产能爬坡不达预期 国家/地区 中国 行业 电子行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 09 月 28 日 看好（维持） | 韩潇锐 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080004 | | --- | --- | | | hanxiaorui@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 蒯剑 | 执业证书编号：S0860514050005 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BPT856 | | | kuaijian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 薛宏伟 | 执业证书编号：S0860524110001 | | | xuehongwei@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 朱茜 | 执业证书编号：S0860123100018 | | --- | --- | | | zhuqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021 ...

Group 1 - Major semiconductor companies, including TSMC, Samsung, Micron, and SanDisk, have announced price increases for their products, reflecting the strong demand driven by the AI wave and data center construction [1][3] - TSMC plans to raise prices for its 3nm and 2nm process nodes, with the 2nm process expected to see a price increase of at least 50% compared to the 3nm process, significantly exceeding market expectations [2][3] - The price hikes in memory chips include a 30% increase for DRAM products and a 5% to 10% increase for NAND flash products from Samsung, driven by supply constraints and surging demand from cloud enterprises [3] Group 2 - TSMC's strong pricing strategy highlights its dominant position in the supply chain, with major clients like Apple and Nvidia relying on its advanced process technologies for their next-generation chips [3] - The stock prices of major memory chip manufacturers, including Samsung and SK Hynix, have risen in response to the price increases, indicating a positive market reaction [3] - The overall performance of the US stock market remains mixed, with major tech stocks experiencing declines, while semiconductor stocks show strength due to the price increase announcements [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the North American cloud computing industry, particularly major players like Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon, and their capital expenditure (CapEx) related to AI and cloud services [1][2][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Capital Expenditure Growth**: North American cloud providers are expected to exceed $366 billion in total capital expenditure in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 47%, driven primarily by Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon [1][2]. - **Google's Investment**: Google raised its 2025 CapEx guidance from $75 billion to $85 billion, a 62% increase year-on-year, with further growth anticipated in 2026 [2][4]. - **Meta's Strategic Goals**: Meta aims for "super intelligence" and has established a dedicated lab for this purpose, indicating a potential CapEx nearing $100 billion by 2026, driven by five key business opportunities [1][7]. - **Microsoft and Amazon's Commitment**: Microsoft plans to maintain over $30 billion in CapEx for the next fiscal quarter, while Amazon expects to sustain its investment levels in the second half of 2025 [2][4]. - **AI Industry Resilience**: Despite concerns over the delayed release of OpenAI's GPT-5, the AI industry continues to innovate, with significant advancements from companies like Anthropic and Xai [1][10]. Additional Important Content - **PCB Market Volatility**: The PCB sector has experienced significant fluctuations due to discussions around COVF/SOP technology paths and increased CapEx expectations from cloud providers [1][14]. - **ASIC Supply Chain Outlook**: The ASIC supply chain is expected to see significant demand elasticity by 2026, with emerging companies like New Feng Peng Ding and Dongshan Jingwang poised to enter the market [3][16]. - **Technological Innovations in PCB**: Innovations such as cobalt processes are being explored to simplify PCB structures, although challenges like heat dissipation and chip warping remain [3][17]. - **Market Trends and Future Projections**: The AI industry's growth is projected to continue, with hardware demand expected to rise significantly by 2026, despite short-term market fluctuations [11][15]. - **Investment Opportunities**: There is a recommendation to monitor potential market pullbacks to capitalize on investment opportunities, particularly in the PCB sector and traditional NB chain stocks [12][15][24]. Conclusion - The North American cloud computing industry is poised for substantial growth in capital expenditures, particularly in AI-related investments. Major players are demonstrating strong confidence in the future of AI, with ongoing innovations and strategic investments shaping the landscape. The PCB and ASIC markets are also highlighted as areas of potential growth and investment opportunity.

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the transition from CoWoS to CoWoP faces significant technical challenges, and the reliance on ABF substrates is unlikely to change in the short term [1][2][8] Group 1: Technical Challenges - The CoWoP technology requires PCB line/space (L/S) to be reduced to below 10/10 microns, which is significantly more challenging than the current standards of ABF substrates [5][6] - The current high-density interconnect (HDI) PCB has an L/S of 40/50 microns, and even the PCB used in iPhone motherboards only reaches 20/35 microns, making the transition to CoWoP technically difficult [5][6] Group 2: Supply Chain Risks - Transitioning from CoWoS to CoWoP could introduce significant yield risks and necessitate a reconfiguration of the supply chain, which is not commercially logical given the timeline for mass production [8] - TSMC's CoWoS yield rate is nearly 100%, making a switch to a new technology unnecessarily risky [8] Group 3: Potential Advantages of CoWoP - Despite the short-term challenges, CoWoP technology has potential advantages, including shorter signal paths, improved thermal performance suitable for >1000W GPUs, better power integrity, and addressing organic substrate capacity bottlenecks [10] - The goals of adopting CoWoP include solving substrate warping issues, increasing NVLink coverage on PCBs without additional substrates, achieving higher thermal efficiency without packaging lids, and eliminating bottlenecks in certain packaging materials [10]

Core Viewpoint - Navitas Semiconductor's GaN and SiC technologies have been selected to support NVIDIA's next-generation 800 V HVDC data center power infrastructure, which is designed to enhance power delivery for AI workloads and support 1 MW IT racks and beyond [1][15]. Group 1: Technology Collaboration - The collaboration between Navitas and NVIDIA focuses on the 800 V HVDC architecture, which aims to provide high-efficiency and scalable power delivery for AI workloads, improving reliability and reducing infrastructure complexity [2][4]. - Navitas' GaNFast™ and GeneSiC™ technologies will enable the powering of NVIDIA's GPUs, such as the Rubin Ultra, directly from the 800 V HVDC system [1][6]. Group 2: Advantages of 800 V HVDC - The existing data center architecture, which uses traditional 54 V in-rack power distribution, is limited to a few hundred kilowatts and faces physical limitations as power demand increases [3]. - The 800 V HVDC system allows for a reduction in copper wire thickness by up to 45%, significantly decreasing the amount of copper needed to power a 1 MW rack, which is crucial for meeting the gigawatt power demands of modern AI data centers [5][6]. - This architecture eliminates the need for additional AC-DC converters, directly powering IT racks and enhancing overall system efficiency [6][13]. Group 3: Performance and Efficiency - NVIDIA's 800 V HVDC architecture is expected to improve end-to-end power efficiency by up to 5%, reduce maintenance costs by 70% due to fewer power supply unit (PSU) failures, and lower cooling costs by connecting HVDC directly to IT and compute racks [13]. - Navitas has introduced several high-efficiency power supply units (PSUs), including a 12 kW PSU that meets 98% efficiency, showcasing the company's commitment to innovation in power delivery for AI data centers [12]. Group 4: Company Background - Navitas Semiconductor, founded in 2014, specializes in next-generation power semiconductors, focusing on GaN and SiC technologies for various markets, including AI data centers and electric vehicles [17]. - The company holds over 300 patents and is recognized for its commitment to sustainability, being the first semiconductor company to achieve CarbonNeutral® certification [17].

Core Viewpoint - Huawei's CloudMatrix 384 super node claims to rival Nvidia's NVL72, but there are discrepancies in the hardware descriptions and capabilities between CloudMatrix and the UB-Mesh paper, suggesting they may represent different hardware forms [1][2][8]. Group 1: CloudMatrix vs. UB-Mesh - CloudMatrix is described as a commercial 384 NPU scale-up super node, while UB-Mesh outlines a plan for an 8000 NPU scale-up super node [8]. - The UB-Mesh paper indicates a different architecture for the next generation of NPUs, potentially enhancing capabilities beyond the current 910C model [10][11]. - There are significant differences in the number of NPUs per rack, with CloudMatrix having 32 NPUs per rack compared to UB-Mesh's 64 NPUs per rack [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - CloudMatrix's total power consumption is estimated at 500KW, significantly higher than NVL72's 145KW, raising questions about its energy efficiency [2]. - The analysis of optical fiber requirements for CloudMatrix suggests that Huawei's vertical integration may mitigate costs and power consumption concerns associated with fiber optics [3][4]. - The UB-Mesh paper proposes a multi-rack structure using electrical connections within racks and optical connections between racks, which could optimize deployment and reduce complexity [9]. Group 3: Market Implications - The competitive landscape may shift if Huawei successfully develops a robust AI hardware ecosystem, potentially challenging Nvidia's dominance in the market [11]. - The ongoing development of AI infrastructure in China could lead to a new competitive environment, especially with the emergence of products like DeepSeek [11][12]. - The perception of optical modules and their cost-effectiveness may evolve, similar to the trajectory of laser radar technology in the automotive industry [6].

图片来源：NVIDIA NVIDIA 的芯片产品组合涵盖了中央处理器（CPU）、图形处理器（GPU）以及网络设备（用于纵 向扩展和横向扩展）。 NVIDIA 发布了其最新的 " Blackwell超级AI工厂" 平台 GB300 NVL72，与 GB200 NVL72 相比，其 AI性能提升了 1.5 倍。 NVIDIA 分享了其芯片路线图，这样一来，行业内企业在现在采购 Blackwell系统时，便可以谨慎 规划其资本性支出投资，以便在未来几年内有可能从 "Hopper" 系列升级到 "Rubin" 系列或 "Feynman" 系列。 "Rubin" 和 "Rubin Ultra" 两款产品分别采用双掩模版尺寸和四掩模版尺寸的图形处理器（GPU）， 在使用 FP4 精度运算时，性能分别可达 50 petaFLOPS（千万亿次浮点运算）和 100 petaFLOPS，分 别搭载 288GB 的第四代高带宽存储器（HBM4）和 1TB 的 HBM4e 存储器，将分别于 2026 年下半 年和 2027 年推出。 全新的 "Vera" 中央处理器（CPU）拥有 88 个基于Arm公司设计打造的定制核心，具备更大的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses NVIDIA's advancements in AI technology, emphasizing the importance of tokens in the AI economy and the need for extensive computational resources to support complex AI models [1][2]. Group 1: Chip Developments - NVIDIA has introduced the "Blackwell Super AI Factory" platform GB300 NVL72, which offers 1.5 times the AI performance compared to the previous GB200 NVL72 [6]. - The new "Vera" CPU features 88 custom cores based on Arm architecture, delivering double the performance of the "Grace" CPU while consuming only 50W [6]. - The "Rubin" and "Rubin Ultra" GPUs will achieve performance levels of 50 petaFLOPS and 100 petaFLOPS, respectively, with releases scheduled for the second half of 2026 and 2027 [6]. Group 2: System Innovations - The DGX SuperPOD infrastructure, powered by 36 "Grace" CPUs and 72 "Blackwell" GPUs, boasts AI performance 70 times higher than the "Hopper" system [10]. - The system utilizes the fifth-generation NVLink technology and can scale to thousands of NVIDIA GB super chips, enhancing its computational capabilities [10]. Group 3: Software Solutions - NVIDIA's software stack, including Dynamo, is crucial for managing AI workloads efficiently and enhancing programmability [12][19]. - The Dynamo framework supports multi-GPU scheduling and optimizes inference processes, potentially increasing token generation capabilities by over 30 times for specific models [19]. Group 4: AI Applications and Platforms - NVIDIA's "Halos" platform integrates safety systems for autonomous vehicles, appealing to major automotive manufacturers and suppliers [20]. - The Aerial platform aims to develop a native AI-driven 6G technology stack, collaborating with industry players to enhance wireless access networks [21]. Group 5: Market Position and Future Outlook - NVIDIA's CUDA-X has become the default programming language for AI applications, with over one million developers utilizing it [23]. - The company's advancements in synthetic data generation and customizable humanoid robot models are expected to drive new industry growth and applications [25].

Core Viewpoint - The Nasdaq has experienced a significant decline as investor sentiment towards technology stocks has soured, driven by various uncertainties including new tariffs, geopolitical unrest, and economic indicators [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Nasdaq Composite has turned downward after reaching record highs, with major tech stocks, particularly Nvidia, experiencing substantial sell-offs, losing approximately $600 billion in market value due to a 16% drop in share price over the last month [2]. - Nvidia's stock is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 40, which is close to its lowest valuation in five years, suggesting a potential buying opportunity [10]. Group 2: Business Fundamentals - Despite the decline in stock price, Nvidia's business fundamentals remain strong, with a high demand for its products and services, indicating that the company is well-positioned to fulfill this demand profitably [2][5]. - Nvidia's recent revenue from its next-generation GPU architecture, Blackwell, reached $11 billion in the fourth quarter, exceeding internal estimates, showcasing the company's robust pipeline [6]. Group 3: Customer Spending and Market Position - Major clients of Nvidia, including Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta Platforms, are projected to spend over $320 billion on AI infrastructure this year, which is expected to benefit Nvidia significantly due to limited competition in the data center GPU market [4][5]. - Nvidia is actively innovating with new product lines, including Blackwell Ultra, Rubin, and Rubin Ultra, which are anticipated to enhance its market-leading position in the GPU sector [8][9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing investment in AI by large tech companies indicates that AI remains a priority, supporting Nvidia's commitment to research and development and rapid innovation [9]. - Despite the current stock price decline, the analysis suggests that Nvidia's future prospects are bright, presenting a favorable opportunity for investors to buy the dip [12].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses **NVIDIA** and its developments in the **data center** and **AI** sectors, particularly in relation to the **GTC conference** held in March 2025. Core Insights and Arguments - **Data Center Product Launch Delays**: NVIDIA's data center products in Japan are delayed, with the first generation expected in 2026 instead of 2025, and the HBM configuration is lower than anticipated, with 12 layers instead of the expected 16 layers and a capacity of 288GB [2][3] - **Rubin Architecture**: The Rubin architecture is set to launch in 2026, featuring a significant performance upgrade with the second generation expected in 2027, which will double the performance [3][4] - **CPO Technology**: The Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) technology aims to enhance data transmission speeds and will be introduced with new products like Spectrum X and Quantum X [6] - **Small Computing Projects**: NVIDIA is focusing on small computing projects like DGX BasePOD and DGX Station, targeting developers with high AI computing capabilities [7] - **Pre-trained Models and Compute Demand**: The rapid growth of pre-trained models has led to a tenfold increase in model size annually, significantly driving up compute demand, which has resulted in a doubling of CSP capital expenditures over the past two years [9][10] - **Inference Stage Importance**: The conference emphasized the significance of the inference stage, with NVIDIA aiming to reduce AI inference costs through hardware and software innovations [11][12] - **Capital Expenditure Growth**: North America's top five tech companies are expected to increase capital expenditures by 30% in 2025 compared to 2024, nearly doubling from 2023 [16] - **Impact of TSMC's Capacity**: TSMC's increased capacity is projected to affect NVIDIA's GGB200 and GB300 shipment volumes, which are expected to decline from 40,000 units to between 25,000 and 30,000 units [17][20] Additional Important Insights - **Hardware Changes**: The GB200 and GB300 models show significant changes in HBM usage, with GB300 increasing from 8 layers to 12 layers, and a rise in power consumption [15] - **Market Performance**: Chinese tech stocks have outperformed U.S. tech stocks, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [13] - **Future Product Releases**: NVIDIA's product roadmap includes significant advancements in GPU architecture, with the potential to influence the entire industry chain [14] This summary encapsulates the critical developments and insights shared during the conference call, highlighting NVIDIA's strategic direction and the broader implications for the tech industry.