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宏观金融数据日报-20251128
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 03:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inter - bank market liquidity remains loose, with the overnight repurchase rate of deposit - taking institutions staying around 1.32%. The November LPR quotes remain unchanged [4]. - The stock index rose and then fell yesterday, showing an overall volatile performance. It is expected that market differences will be gradually digested during the stock index's volatile adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of new mainlines. The bottom - fishing effect of Central Huijin provides a certain buffer, and the downside risk of the index is generally controllable. The recent market adjustment offers an opportunity to lay out for the further rise of the stock index next year [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.31%, down 0.04bp; DR007 at 1.45%, down 2.79bp; GC001 at 1.38%, down 6.50bp; GC007 at 1.52%, down 1.00bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.58%, up 0.10bp; LPR 5 - year at 3.50%, unchanged; 1 - year treasury bond at 1.35%, down 0.60bp; 5 - year treasury bond at 1.57%, up 0.20bp; 10 - year treasury bond at 1.84%, down 0.10bp; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.00%, down 1.00bp [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 356.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%. With 300 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net investment for the day was 56.4 billion yuan [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Closing Prices and Changes**: The CSI 300 closed at 4515, down 0.05%; the SSE 50 at 2972, up 0.02%; the CSI 500 at 6951.3, down 0.2%; the CSI 1000 at 7257.5, up 0.12%. The trading volume of the two stock markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 1.7098 trillion yuan, a decrease of 73.6 billion yuan from the previous day. Industry sectors showed mixed performance, with papermaking, batteries, consumer electronics, photovoltaic equipment, and chemical raw materials sectors leading the gains, while cultural media, cement building materials, Internet services, pharmaceutical commerce, and gaming sectors leading the losses [5]. - **Futures Contracts**: IF volume was 100,893, up 3.7%; IF open interest was 264,196, up 1.9%; IH volume was 42,497, up 19.7%; IH open interest was 92,285, up 7.0%; IC volume was 112,976, up 5.6%; IC open interest was 254,570, up 2.2%; IM volume was 183,443, up 3.3%; IM open interest was 364,043, up 0.8% [5]. 3.3 Futures Contract Premium and Discount - **IF**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 8.38%, 6.21%, 3.95%, and 3.99% respectively [7]. - **IH**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 5.51%, 3.70%, 1.81%, and 1.63% respectively [7]. - **IC**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 13.15%, 11.90%, 10.34%, and 11.10% respectively [7]. - **IM**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 17.93%, 15.48%, 13.47%, and 13.25% respectively [7].
宏观金融数据日报-20251120
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 06:21
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank will have 11220 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations due this week, and there will be 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed deposits due on Thursday. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to keep social financing conditions relatively loose and promote a reasonable recovery of prices [4]. - Yesterday, the macro news was calm, and the stock index showed a differentiated trend. Small and medium - cap stocks were relatively weak, while large - cap stocks were more resilient. The market is in a state of long - short interweaving, lacking a core driving force. The stock index is expected to continue the volatile pattern with support at the bottom and pressure upwards. Short - term market differences will be digested during the volatility, waiting for a new driving force to push the index up [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Market - DRO01 closed at 1.42%, down 10.66bp; DR007 closed at 1.51%, down 1.08bp; GC001 closed at 1.63%, down 6.50bp; GC007 closed at 1.51%, down 5.00bp; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.58%, unchanged; LPR 5 - year was 3.50%, unchanged; 1 - year treasury bond yield was 1.40%, down 0.30bp; 10 - year treasury bond yield was 1.81%, up 0.40bp; 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.12%, down 1.00bp [3]. - Last week, the central bank conducted 11220 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 4958 billion yuan of reverse repurchase due, resulting in a net investment of 6262 billion yuan [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market - Yesterday, the CSI 300 rose 0.44% to 4588.3; the SSE 50 rose 0.58% to 3020.3; the CSI 500 fell 0.4% to 7122.7; the CSI 1000 fell 0.82% to 7387.2. The trading volume of the two markets was 17259 billion yuan, a decrease of 2002 billion yuan from the previous day. The industry sectors had more decliners than gainers [5]. - The IF contract had a trading volume of 122613, up 0.6%, and an open interest of 272167, down 2.3%; the IH contract had a trading volume of 53539, down 2.2%, and an open interest of 95237, down 2.5%; the IC contract had a trading volume of 132592, down 1.4%, and an open interest of 248512, down 2.2%; the IM contract had a trading volume of 227467, up 4.5%, and an open interest of 364139, up 0.6% [5]. 3.3 Futures Premium and Discount Situation - The IF premium rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 19.46%, 6.12%, 3.69%, and 3.73% respectively; the IH premium rates were 14.19%, 3.77%, 1.39%, and 1.38% respectively; the IC premium rates were 15.75%, 11.61%, 10.48%, and 11.09% respectively; the IM premium rates were - 7.88%, 14.66%, 13.00%, and 12.79% respectively [7].
宏观金融数据日报-20251113
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 02:59
Group 1: Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - DR001 closed at 1.42 with a -9.02bp change, DR007 at 1.49 with a -2.21bp change, GC001 at 1.54 with a -10.00bp change, and GC007 at 1.50 with a -3.00bp change [3] - SHBOR 3M remained at 1.58 with no change, and LPR 5 - year stayed at 3.50 with no change [3] - 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese government bonds closed at 1.35 (-1.80bp), 1.52 (-2.00bp), and 1.80 (-1.60bp) respectively, while 10 - year US Treasury bonds closed at 4.09 with a 2.00bp increase [3] - The central bank conducted 1955 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 655 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 1300 billion yuan [3] - This week, 4958 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 783 billion, 1175 billion, 655 billion, 928 billion, and 1417 billion maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [4] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The central bank's Q3 2025 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report stated that it will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, use various tools to keep social financing conditions relatively loose, improve the monetary policy framework, and strengthen policy implementation and transmission [4] - Promoting a reasonable recovery of prices is an important consideration for monetary policy to keep prices at a reasonable level [4] Group 3: Stock Indexes and Futures - The CSI 300 fell 0.13% to 4645.9, the SSE 50 rose 0.32% to 3044.3, the CSI 500 fell 0.66% to 7243.2, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.72% to 7486.4 [5] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 19450 billion yuan, a decrease of 486 billion yuan from the previous day [5] - Industry sectors showed more declines than gains, with insurance, mining, pharmaceutical commerce, medical devices, and beauty care sectors leading the gains, while photovoltaic equipment, non - metallic materials, wind power equipment, power supply equipment, power grid equipment, and electronic chemicals sectors leading the losses [5] - IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts showed different price changes and volume/position changes. For example, IF volume increased by 93 to 120690, and its open interest increased by 3.9% to 273421 [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - The macro news was calm, and the stock index continued to fluctuate. The current macro situation is a mix of positives and negatives, lacking a core driving force [6] - There are disagreements in the market regarding the further increase of technology stock valuations and the transition from a structural market to a full - fledged slow - bull market [6] - Short - term market differences are expected to be digested during the stock index's volatile adjustment, and new driving factors such as overseas liquidity release or domestic fundamental improvement will be key for the market to rise [6] Group 5: Futures Contract Premium/Discount - IF showed premiums of 0.79%, 3.80%, 2.76%, and 3.15% for the current, next, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts respectively [7] - IH had a - 3.33% discount for the current contract and premiums for other contracts [7] - IC and IM contracts generally showed premiums [7]
宏观金融数据日报-20251112
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 07:18
Market Data Summary - DRO01 closed at 1.51 with a 2.52 bp increase, DR007 at 1.51 with a 1.33 bp increase, GC001 at 1.64 with a 43.50 bp increase, and GC007 at 1.53 with a 5.00 bp increase [4] - SHBOR 3M remained at 1.58, LPR 5 - year at 3.50, 1 - year treasury at 1.40 with a 0.56 bp increase, 5 - year treasury at 1.57 with a - 0.88 bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.81 with a - 0.05 bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.13 with a 2.00 bp increase [4] - The central bank conducted 4038 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 1175 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 2863 billion yuan [4] - This week, 4958 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 783 billion, 1175 billion, 655 billion, 928 billion, and 1417 billion maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [4] - The central bank will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to promote a reasonable recovery of prices and keep social financing conditions relatively loose [4] Stock Index Market - CSI 300 closed at 4652, down 0.91%; SSE 50 at 3035, down 0.63%; CSI 500 at 7292, down 0.71%; and CSI 1000 at 7541, down 0.30% [6] - IF volume was 110400 with a 3.4% increase, IH volume 50142 with a 9.2% increase, IC volume 112484 with an 8.4% decrease, and IM volume 186082 with a 4.3% decrease [6] - IF open interest was 263184 with a 1.9% decrease, IH open interest 94744 with a 2.0% decrease, IC open interest 241256 with a 3.2% decrease, and IM open interest 354095 with a 0.2% decrease [6] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 19936 billion yuan, a decrease of 1809 billion yuan from the previous day [6] - Photovoltaic equipment, chemical raw materials, non - metallic materials, food and beverage, and pharmaceutical commerce sectors led the gains, while insurance, energy metals, aerospace, electronic components, and software development sectors led the losses [6] Market Outlook - The stock index closed down in a volatile manner. The current macro - level is a mix of bullish and bearish factors, lacking a core driving force [7] - Market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the stock index's volatile adjustment. New driving factors such as overseas liquidity release or domestic fundamental improvement will be key for the market to rise [7] Stock Index Futures Basis - IF basis was 9.39% for the current - month contract, 5.24% for the next - month contract, 3.15% for the current - quarter contract, and 3.32% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IH basis was 1.24% for the current - month contract, 0.52% for the next - month contract, 0.47% for the current - quarter contract, and 0.66% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IC basis was 24.73% for the current - month contract, 15.62% for the next - month contract, 11.17% for the current - quarter contract, and 10.87% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IM basis was 31.07% for the current - month contract, 19.16% for the next - month contract, 14.03% for the current - quarter contract, and 13.00% for the next - quarter contract [8]
宏观金融数据日报-20251029
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 08:41
Group 1: Market Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - DR001 closed at 1.47 with a 1.62bp increase, DR007 at 1.56 with a 2.34bp decrease, GC001 at 1.67 with a 26.00bp increase, and GC007 at 1.64 with a 0.50bp increase. SHBOR 3M was at 1.60 with a 0.40bp increase, and LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50 with no change. 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds closed at 1.43 (-0.50bp), 1.54 (-4.75bp), and 1.81 (1.75bp) respectively, while 10 - year US treasury bonds closed at 3.97 with a 1.70bp decrease [4] - The central bank conducted 4753 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 1595 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net daily investment was 3158 billion yuan [4] Group 2: Central Bank's Policy Announcement - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng said on October 27 that the central bank suspended treasury bond trading at the beginning of this year due to supply - demand imbalance and accumulated market risks in the bond market. Now that the bond market is operating well, it will resume open - market treasury bond trading operations [5] Group 3: Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed at 4692 (-0.51%), 3050 (-0.62%), 7341 (-0.52%), and 7479 (-0.22%) respectively. The trading volume of the two stock markets was 21479 billion yuan, a decrease of 1923 billion yuan from the previous day. Shipbuilding, shipping ports, automotive services, aerospace, railways, and airports led the gains, while precious metals, energy metals, wind power equipment, steel, non - ferrous metals, and beauty care led the losses [6] - The stock index rose and then fell yesterday. The Shanghai Composite Index briefly broke through the 4000 - point mark but entered a volatile phase due to lack of significant volume. In the short term, with the easing of Sino - US trade frictions, the stock index may return to an upward trend. In the medium - to - long - term, there is still room for growth, and the strategy is to buy on dips and use the discount structure of stock index futures to enhance long - term long - position strategies [7] Group 4: Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount - The premium and discount rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts vary across different delivery months. For example, IF's current - month contract has a 3.10% premium, IH's current - month contract has a 0.39% discount, IC's current - month contract has an 11.11% premium, and IM's current - month contract has a 14.08% premium [8]
宏观金融数据日报-20251028
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 07:01
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank's mid - term liquidity net injection in October reached 600 million yuan, maintaining a relatively high level, showing a moderately loose monetary policy orientation [4] - With the gradual alleviation of unfavorable factors in trade frictions, stock indices may return to the upward channel. Even if short - term macro uncertainties increase, the adjustment space of stock indices is expected to be limited. The strategy is to mainly choose opportunities to go long on stock indices [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Interest Rates and Bond Market - DR001 closed at 1.45 with a 13.11bp increase, DR007 at 1.58 with a 17.11bp increase, GC001 at 1.41 with a 1.50bp increase, and GC007 at 1.64 with a 6.50bp increase [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.60 with a 0.10bp increase, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury bond at 1.37 with a 2.00bp decrease, 5 - year treasury bond at 1.59 with a 1.20bp decrease, 10 - year treasury bond at 1.84 with a 0.85bp decrease, and 10 - year US treasury bond at 3.98 with a 2.70bp increase [3] - The central bank conducted 337.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on October 27, with an operating rate of 1.40%. After offsetting the 189 billion yuan of matured reverse repurchases, the net investment on the day was 148.3 billion yuan [3] - The central bank carried out 900 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations in October. After offsetting the 700 billion yuan of matured MLF, the net investment of MLF this month was 20 billion yuan, and it was the 8th consecutive month of incremental roll - over [4] - In addition to MLF, the central bank conducted 1700 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases in October, and achieved a net investment of 400 billion yuan after offsetting the 1300 billion yuan of matured outright reverse repurchases [4] Stock Index Futures Market - On October 27, the CSI 300 rose 1.19% to 4716, the SSE 50 rose 0.78% to 3070, the CSI 500 rose 1.67% to 7379, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.03% to 7495 [5] - Most industry sectors closed higher, with sectors such as electronic chemicals, small metals, shipbuilding, energy metals, semiconductors, iron and steel, and electronic components leading the gains, while wind power equipment and game sectors leading the losses [5] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 2340.1 billion yuan, a significant increase of 365.9 billion yuan compared with the previous trading day [5] - For stock index futures, IF's current - month contract closed at 4701 with a 1.1% increase, IH's current - month contract closed at 3067 with a 0.6% increase, IC's current - month contract closed at 7310 with a 1.4% increase, and IM's current - month contract closed at 7399 with a 0.4% increase [5] - IF's trading volume was 113332, a 2.5% decrease; its open interest was 262244, a 2.7% increase. IH's trading volume was 56298, a 4.5% decrease; its open interest was 98162, a 3.0% increase. IC's trading volume was 136694, a 0.8% decrease; its open interest was 252585, a 3.7% increase. IM's trading volume was 214742, a 4.3% decrease; its open interest was 358844, a 2.8% increase [5] - The premium/discount rates of IF were 4.65% for the current - month contract, 4.62% for the next - month contract, 3.23% for the current - quarter contract, and 3.14% for the next - quarter contract. For IH, they were 1.01%, 0.61%, 0.03%, and 0.11% respectively. For IC, they were 13.65%, 11.67%, 10.18%, and 10.02% respectively. For IM, they were 18.70%, 15.88%, 13.19%, and 12.51% respectively [7] International Trade and Market Impact - On October 26, the China - US economic and trade teams concluded a two - day consultation in Kuala Lumpur. After the talks, the US Treasury Secretary said that the two sides reached a "very substantial framework agreement", and the US "no longer considers" imposing a 100% tariff on China [6]
宏观金融数据日报-20251016
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 06:20
Report Summary 1. Market Data and Central Bank Operations - DRO01 closed at 1.31 with a -0.03 bp change, DR007 at 1.42 with a -1.44 bp change, GC001 at 1.54 with a 19.00 bp change, and GC007 at 1.50 with a 1.00 bp change [3]. - SHBOR 3M was at 1.58 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.40 with a 0.75 bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.58 with a 0.50 bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.76 with a 0.60 bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.02 with a - 0.50 bp change [3]. - The central bank conducted 43.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40% with a net injection of 43.5 billion yuan as there were no reverse repurchase maturities [3]. - This week, 1021 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 612 billion yuan and 409 billion yuan maturing on Thursday and Friday respectively [4]. 2. Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300 rose 1.48% to 4606.3, SSE 50 rose 1.36% to 3001.3, CSI 500 rose 1.38% to 7294, and CSI 1000 rose 1.5% to 7483.4 [5]. - Industry sectors generally rose, with automotive, aviation, power grid equipment, and pharmaceutical sectors leading the gains, while shipping and small - metal sectors declined [5]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.0729 trillion yuan, a significant decrease of 503.4 billion yuan or 17% from the previous day [5]. 3. Futures Contracts and Market Outlook - In the futures market, IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all showed price increases, but their trading volumes and open interests decreased to varying degrees [5]. - In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies and the Sino - US leaders' meeting at the APEC in South Korea at the end of this month [5]. - Small - and medium - cap stocks with high technology weights may face greater shocks, and risk - hedging tools such as CSI 1000 put options can be considered [5]. - The CSI 300 and SSE 50 indexes are expected to show stronger resilience, and in the long term, the upward trend of the stock index is expected to continue [5]. 4. Futures Contract Premium and Discount - IF's premium/discount rates for different contracts were 0.00%, 4.22%, 3.64%, and 2.61% respectively [5]. - IH's were 1.03%, 11.85%, 0.74%, and 0.23% [5]. - IC's were 13.23%, 39.54%, 11.84%, and 10.17% [5]. - IM's were 67.43%, 15.93%, 15.63%, and 13.23% [5].
宏观金融数据日报-20250929
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 05:38
Group 1: Market Data Summary - DR001 closed at 1.32 with a -15.67bp change, DR007 at 1.53 with a -7.04bp change, GC001 at 1.36 with a -13.50bp change, and GC007 at 0.00 with a -187.00bp change [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.58 with a 0.40bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change [4] - 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds closed at 1.39 (-1.00bp), 1.63 (-0.73bp), and 1.88 (-0.78bp) respectively, while 10 - year US treasury bonds closed at 4.20 with a 2.00bp change [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 2467.4 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 600 billion yuan in MLF operations, with 1826.8 billion yuan in reverse repurchase and 300 billion yuan in 1 - year MLF maturing, resulting in a net injection of 940.6 billion yuan [4] - This week, 516.6 billion yuan in reverse repurchase will mature, with 240.5 billion and 276.1 billion maturing on Monday and Tuesday respectively, and 300 billion yuan in 182 - day buy - out reverse repurchase maturing on Tuesday [5] Group 2: Stock Index Market - The closing prices and changes of major stock indices: CSI 300 at 4550 (-0.95%), SSE 50 at 2941 (-0.40%), CSI 500 at 7241 (-1.37%), and CSI 1000 at 7398 (-1.45%) [6] - The closing prices and changes of index futures contracts: IF at 4543 (-0.9%), IH at 2945 (-0.3%), IC at 7203 (-1.2%), and IM at 7357 (-1.2%) [6] - Trading volume and open interest changes: IF volume decreased by 9.3% to 121085, IH volume decreased by 6.9% to 48226, IC volume increased by 4.9% to 136035, and IM volume increased by 14.2% to 242990; IF open interest decreased by 2.4% to 259924, IH open interest increased by 1.1% to 95988, IC open interest increased by 1.4% to 252224, and IM open interest increased by 3.3% to 364864 [6] - Last week, CSI 300 fell 0.44% to 4501.9, SSE 50 fell 1.98% to 2909.7, CSI 500 rose 0.32% to 7170.3, and CSI 1000 rose 0.21% to 7438.2; only the power equipment (3.9%) and electronics (3.5%) sectors in the Shenwan primary industry index rose, while banking (-0.5%), non - ferrous metals (-3.5%), non - banking finance (-0.1%), steel (-1.1%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-2%) led the decline [6] - As of September 25, the margin trading balance in the A - share market was 2436.61 billion yuan, an increase of 46.18 billion yuan from the previous week [6] Group 3: Market Outlook and Analysis - The central bank governor stated that China's monetary policy adheres to a self - centered approach while considering internal and external balance, and will use various monetary policy tools to ensure sufficient liquidity [5] - Recently, the macro news has been calm, and the stock index has been oscillating; due to poor domestic economic data, there is a stronger expectation for policies to promote consumption, stabilize the real estate market, and expand fiscal spending [7] - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will be held in October, focusing on formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan and analyzing the current economic situation, which is worthy of attention [7] - The stock index trend remains bullish, but the policy aims to guide the A - share market to a "slow - bull" pattern, and it is recommended to adjust and go long, while controlling positions before the holiday [7] Group 4: Index Futures Premium and Discount - IF premium/discount rates: 0.00% for the current - month contract, 2.62% for the next - month contract, 2.45% for the current - quarter contract, and 2.31% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IH premium/discount rates: -2.73% for the current - month contract, -0.50% for the next - month contract, -0.51% for the current - quarter contract, and -0.04% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IC premium/discount rates: 10.16% for the current - month contract, 9.81% for the next - month contract, 9.89% for the current - quarter contract, and 9.76% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IM premium/discount rates: 10.54% for the current - month contract, 11.55% for the next - month contract, 12.54% for the current - quarter contract, and 12.13% for the next - quarter contract [8]
宏观金融数据日报-20250916
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 03:21
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The necessity of policy support for the economy has increased as the economic data from January to August shows varying degrees of weakness in industrial production, investment, and consumption [6] - With a dense schedule of domestic and foreign macro - events this week, investors should control risks in stock index positions and mainly adjust for long - positions [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Interest Rate Data - DR001 closed at 1.41 with a 4.93bp increase, DR007 at 1.48 with a 2.57bp increase, GC001 at 1.36 with a 0.50bp decrease, and GC007 at 1.49 with a 3.00bp increase [3] - SHBOR 3M remained at 1.55, LPR 5 - year at 3.50, 1 - year treasury at 1.40 with a 0.25bp decrease, 5 - year treasury at 1.61 with a 0.45bp increase, 10 - year treasury at 1.80 with a 1.05bp increase, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.06 with a 5.00bp increase [3] - The central bank conducted 280 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 191.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 88.5 billion yuan [3] - This week, 1.2645 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits will mature on Monday [4] Stock Index Market Data - The CSI 300 rose 0.24% to 4533.1, the SSE 50 fell 0.2% to 2962.6, the CSI 500 fell 0.15% to 7137.4, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.1% to 7415.6 [5] - The trading volume of the two - stock markets was 2.2774 trillion yuan, a decrease of 243.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day [5] - Industry sectors had more decliners than gainers, with game, agriculture, fishery, automobile, power equipment, and auto parts sectors leading the gains, and precious metals, jewelry, small metals, electronic chemicals, and aerospace sectors leading the losses [5] Stock Index Futures Data - IF contracts: The current - month contract closed at 4528 with a 0.1% increase, the trading volume was 137,764 with a 7.3% decrease, and the open interest was 267,459 with a 4.0% decrease [5] - IH contracts: The current - month contract closed at 2962 with a 0.2% decrease, the trading volume was 25,348 with a 15.2% decrease, and the open interest was 98,524 with a 1.5% decrease [5] - IC contracts: The current - month contract closed at 7114 with a 0.4% decrease, the trading volume was 137,356 with a 21.9% decrease, and the open interest was 249,632 with a 6.8% decrease [5] - IM contracts: The current - month contract closed at 7369 with a 0.3% decrease, the trading volume was 194,389 with a 19.3% decrease, and the open interest was 356,703 with a 4.2% decrease [5] Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount Data - IF premium/discount rates for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 10.58%, 3.34%, 3.06%, and 2.72% respectively [7] - IH premium/discount rates were 0.66%, - 0.07%, 0.00%, and - 0.09% respectively [7] - IC premium/discount rates were 29.61%, 13.93%, 10.66%, and 9.82% respectively [7] - IM premium/discount rates were 57.80%, 17.62%, 14.11%, and 12.72% respectively [7]
宏观金融数据日报-20250905
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 05:50
Report Overall Information - Report Title: Macro Financial Data Daily Report [3] - Report Date: September 5, 2025 [4] - Researcher: Zheng Yuting from the Macro Financial Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [4] - Futures Practicing License Number: F3074875; Investment Consulting License Number: Z0017779 [4] Market Conditions Money Market - DR001 closed at 1.31% with a -0.01bp change; DR007 at 1.44% with a 0.40bp change [4] - GC001 closed at 1.01% with a 1.50bp change; GC007 at 1.44% with a -2.50bp change [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.55% with a 0.10bp change; LPR 5-year remained at 3.50% [4] - 1-year treasury bond closed at 1.37% with a 0.23bp change; 5-year at 1.60% with a -2.52bp change [4] - 10-year treasury bond closed at 1.81% with a -1.69bp change; 10-year US treasury bond at 4.28% with a 5.00bp change [4] - The central bank conducted 212.6 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 416.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 203.5 billion yuan [4] - This week, there are 2.2731 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open market, and 1 trillion yuan of 91-day outright reverse repurchases will mature on Friday [5] Stock Market - The CSI 300 closed at 4365, down 2.12%; the SSE 50 at 2910, down 1.71%; the CSI 500 at 6698.4, down 2.48%; the CSI 1000 at 7206.9, down 1.46% [6] - The trading volume of the two stock markets reached 2.5443 trillion yuan, an increase of 180.2 billion yuan from the previous day [6] - Industry sectors mostly declined, with consumer sectors such as department stores, beauty care, food and beverages, and tourism hotels leading the gains, while semiconductor, communication equipment, electronic chemicals, small metals, aerospace, and electronic components sectors leading the losses [6] - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased across the board, with IF volume up 9.4%, IH volume up 17.8%, IC volume up 16.8%, and IM volume up 13.3% [6] Core Views - Recently, the risk aversion sentiment of funds has risen, and some funds have chosen to take profits, leading to the adjustment of stock indexes [6] - Domestically, the marginal changes are limited recently, and the incremental policies are in a relative vacuum state. The latest August China Manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly to 49.4%, indicating that the economy still has certain resilience [6] - Overseas, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has increased [6] - Strategically, the short-term adjustment of stock indexes may bring opportunities for long positions [6] Futures Basis Information - The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for different delivery months are provided, with specific values and annualized rates noted [6]