全球投资者对美联储政策预期急剧转变。 举足轻重的美联储迎来变革派。美国总统特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什担任美联储主席当天（1月30日），美股指集 体下挫，贵金属价格暴跌，美元和美债利率反弹。 沃什的登场，引发全球投资者对美联储政策预期的急剧转变，多名知名经济学家表示，其提名也在引发各界对美 联储在美国这一全球最大经济体中扮演角色的全面重新评估。 鲍曼（MichelleBowman）是特朗普任命的另一位美联储官员，她去年成为负责金融监管的副主席。她公布了一项 计划，拟将位于华盛顿的美联储理事会的监管人员削减30%。 沃什曾任美联储理事，多年来一直批评美联储职能不断扩张，他认为这是政策制定者为了应对2008年金融危机和 疫情带来的冲击而扩大政策工具箱的结果。 也正是这些呼吁美联储变革的呼声，促使美国财政部长贝森特支持沃什的任命。贝森特近年来也同样谴责美联 储"职能扩张"。 如今，获得提名的沃什有望执掌美联储，领导其改革，不过前提是参议院批准其任命。 彭博经济研究美国经济研究主任威尔克斯（DavidWilcox）对第一财经表示，不管最后是谁获得提名，上任时都会 面临外界的质疑，人们会认为他一定是承诺了会在美联储执行美国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The industrial value added in China is expected to achieve a medium to high-speed growth rate of around 5% by 2026, supported by various initiatives aimed at upgrading traditional industries and promoting emerging sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Industrial Growth Targets - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has prioritized stabilizing industrial growth and fostering innovation as key tasks for 2026, emphasizing the need for a modern industrial system [1]. - In 2025, the industrial value added for large-scale industries grew by 5.9%, with manufacturing maintaining a stable share of GDP, indicating a strong foundation for future growth [2]. - Various provinces, including Zhejiang and Anhui, have set specific growth targets for industrial value added, aiming for increases of around 6% to 6.5% in 2026 [3]. Group 2: Major Projects and Investments - Shanghai plans to initiate 133 industrial projects in 2026, with a total investment of 110 billion yuan, focusing on large-scale projects to support the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4]. - Hebei is set to implement a "Project Construction Year" in 2026, emphasizing the completion of key projects and the development of emerging industries [3]. - The overall manufacturing investment is projected to improve in 2026, with expected growth rates between 3% and 5% due to new technologies and market demand [5]. Group 3: Emerging Industries and Future Development - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes building a modern industrial system and strengthening the real economy, with a focus on developing new industries and technologies [6]. - Various regions are actively promoting new growth points in sectors such as 6G, quantum technology, and biomanufacturing, aiming to enhance their industrial capabilities [8]. - The integration of technology and industry is expected to accelerate, with significant government support for artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, and future industries [8].

Core Viewpoint - The increase in the value-added tax (VAT) rate from 6% to 9% for certain telecom services will negatively impact the revenue and profits of China's three major telecom operators: China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom [1][2]. Group 1: Tax Rate Changes - The new VAT regulations, effective from January 1, 2026, redefine the applicable tax categories for telecom services, shifting mobile data, SMS, and broadband services from the category of value-added telecom services (6% VAT) to basic telecom services (9% VAT) [2][3]. - The adjustment expands the definition of basic telecom services to include mobile data, SMS, and broadband services, which were previously classified under value-added services [3]. Group 2: Impact on Operators - The tax rate increase will lead to a higher tax burden for the three major operators, although their monopolistic position may help mitigate the overall impact [3]. - The potential for price increases in broadband and SMS services exists due to the higher VAT rate, but the extent of this will depend on consumer demand elasticity [4]. Group 3: Financial Context - Recent data indicates a decline in national public budget revenue by 1.7% in 2025, alongside a 7% decrease in government fund budget revenue, highlighting the need for increased tax revenue through such adjustments [5].

②黄仁勋：英伟达"绝对"会参与本轮对OpenAI的投资； ③消息称Waymo寻求160亿美元巨额融资，估值或近1100亿美元； ④微软Copilot测试新提醒功能，面向所有移动端用户。 腾讯"元宝派"公测上线，打造多人互动的AI社交空间；黄仁勋：英伟达"绝对"会参与本轮对OpenAI的 投资。 ①腾讯"元宝派"公测上线，打造多人互动的AI社交空间； ...

Group 1: UK-China Relations - The friendly ties between the UK and China are strengthened by continuous people-to-people exchanges, which inject new vitality into bilateral interactions [1][3] - UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's visit to China included a business reception where he engaged with various UK companies, highlighting the importance of direct communication [1] Group 2: Tourism and Economic Impact - The UK tourism board anticipates approximately 650,000 Chinese tourists will visit the UK this year, generating around £1.2 billion in revenue, indicating a stable growth trend in the Chinese market [3] - Chinese tourists tend to stay longer in the UK, averaging 14 nights compared to the 7 nights of international travelers, and are shifting their spending from shopping to experiences [3] Group 3: Trade and Investment Opportunities - The UK plans to implement a 5% temporary import tax on whisky starting February 2, 2026, enhancing the competitiveness of British whisky in the Chinese market [5] - AstraZeneca announced plans to invest over 100 billion RMB in China by 2030, reflecting strong bilateral economic cooperation [5] - The UK-China Trade Association emphasizes the importance of strengthening economic cooperation with China to enhance the UK's international competitiveness and drive innovation [6]

只有将科技人才评价体系拉回正确轨道，才能让科研人员写出好论文，创出真成果。 最近，有两则学术领域的新闻引起外界关注。 在学术圈，质量不高的论文被称为"水论文"。在这里，"水"既可理解为形容词"水货"，也可理解为动 词"粗制滥造"。"水论文"何以泛滥？各界早有共识，那就是长期以来主导科技人才评价体系的"四唯"顽 疾——唯论文、唯职称、唯学历、唯奖项。在"四唯"的压力下，发表论文不再是科学研究的成果呈现， 而是拿文凭、评职称、争项目、赢地位的"硬通货"与"敲门砖"。于是，论文乱象顺势而生，论文生产 如"开闸放水"，产出的许多论文也"水"得不行。 "水论文"之风盛行，不仅浪费科研资源，侵蚀学术公信力，更会阻碍真正的科学进步，必须坚决刹住。 当前，随着生成式人工智能的日益成熟，"水论文"变得更加方便容易，遏制这股歪风变得更加紧迫。根 据美国康奈尔大学学者近期发表在《科学》上的一项研究，人工智能显著提升了全球科研人员的论文产 出效率，尤其是非英语母语的科研人员。但人工智能辅助生产的论文存在低质量、同质化现象，稀释了 科研论文的整体含金量。可见，国际学术界也对论文变"水"保持警惕，深受"水论文"毒害的中国更应该 积极行动 ...

市场对中长期金价走势仍存支撑预期。 1月最后一个交易日，金价的剧烈波动让不少投资者陷入困惑：是在高位止损，还是趁跌加仓？ 在连续刷新历史高点后，贵金属市场突然踩下"急刹车"。1月30日，国际金价高位大幅回落，现货黄金 盘中一度跌破4700美元/盎司，白银价格同步大幅下挫，单日波动幅度刷新多项历史纪录。剧烈调整之 下，市场情绪迅速分化：一边是对高波动的警惕升温，另一边则是逢低配置需求集中释放。 金价剧烈波动下，工商银行、建设银行、中国银行、农业银行等多家机构接连发布风险提示，并同步调 整贵金属业务规则。与此同时，记者注意到，多家银行的实物金条、投资金却依然供不应求，部分产品 甚至出现"全线售罄"。 银行先"踩刹车" 价格剧烈波动之下，多家国内银行纷纷发布公告，提醒投资者审慎操作、理性布局。 2月1日，中国工商银行发布公告，提示近期国内外贵金属价格波动显著加大，市场不确定性上升，建议 投资者理性看待行情变化，从中长期视角出发，避免追涨杀跌，合理控制仓位，并坚持分批、分散配置 的原则。 事实上，类似的风险提示并非首次出现。早在1月下旬，工行已连续发布多次贵金属风险提示，并同步 对如意金积存等业务的办理规则进行调整： ...

保护债权人合法权利，也要保护债务人合法权益。 个人消费贷又迎新规，这次聚焦的是乱象频发的贷后催收环节。中国银行业协会日前发布《金融机构个 人消费类贷款催收工作指引（试行）》（下称《指引》），对会员单位及第三方催收机构的催收行为提 出了详细的规范要求。 《指引》共七章五十四条，从加强行业自律、规范业务发展的角度，通过催收行为定义、催收行为规 范、外部催收机构管理、内控管理、促进行业健康发展等五个方面对规则进行制定。 其中，在催收行为规范层面，新规要求，未经债务人同意，严禁在每日22:00至次日8:00进行电话催 收、外访催收及其他催收；按照电话催收当时具体情况，主动通话的频密程度应控制在合理及必需的范 围内。《指引》提出："债务人电话未接通的，催收人员对债务人同一联系方式尝试拨打次数当天不宜 超过6次；与债务人另有约定除外。" 记者注意到，在此次新规发布之前，包括银行业协会2021年发布的《中国银行业协会信用卡催收工作指 引（试行）》在内，22:00至次日8:00为催收严禁时段已被多次强调。 2025年2月，由中国互联网金融协会、中国银行业协会等协会、研究院，以及多家金融机构、信息科技 企业等共同起草，国家市场 ...

美国经济与社会的固有秩序正在因此发生着罕见的脱轨与撕裂。 与库克交手之际，美联储执行理事库格勒提前半年自动申请离职，特朗普迅疾提名白宫经济顾问斯蒂芬 ·米兰填补了职位空缺，加上自己钦点的美联储现有两位执行理事沃勒与鲍曼，特朗普于是可以操控的 FOMC中票委成员人数达到了三人，再加上日前又选定了美联储前理事凯文·沃什接替鲍威尔出任美联 储新主席，对FOMC票委成员的操控便增至了绝对多数的四人。 公开资料显示，沃什不仅是特朗普的政治盟友，更是宽松货币政策的坚定拥趸者，他掌舵美联储， FOMC的决策行为与结果很难不受到总统意志的影响，特朗普进一步改造美联储核心权力架构于是更加 胸有成竹，到时美联储独立性根基很可能被撼动，同时现代货币政策体系的格局与走向也会发生改变。 还值得注意的是，任期为5年的12家地区联邦储备银行行长也即将从2026年2月起拉开重新选任的大幕。 按照规定，12名联邦储备银行行长集体进入美联储理事会，同时从中选出5名地区联邦储备银行行长出 任FOMC的成员，虽然新任地区联邦储备银行行长须由地区联储董事会投票产生，但更需得到美联储理 事会批准，尤其是FOMC中七人票委的投票认可。因此，在已经控制了美 ...

Group 1 - The Japanese government has approved a comprehensive economic strategy worth 21.3 trillion yen, designating shipbuilding as a key investment area to revitalize the industry by 2035 with a goal to double shipbuilding capacity [1][2] - Japan's shipbuilding industry has significantly declined, with its market share dropping from over 50% in the 1990s to approximately 13% in 2024, largely due to intense international competition and domestic labor shortages [2][3] - The "Shipbuilding Industry Revitalization Roadmap" aims for a joint investment of 1 trillion yen to increase domestic shipbuilding from 9.07 million gross tons in 2024 to 18 million gross tons by 2035, structured in three phases focusing on automation, facility upgrades, and production ramp-up [3][4] Group 2 - The roadmap emphasizes the restructuring of the shipbuilding industry, requiring the formation of 1 to 3 shipbuilding groups by 2028 to enhance competitiveness and supply chain resilience [4][5] - A significant investment of 350 billion yen has been pledged by a consortium of 17 Japanese companies to enhance shipbuilding capabilities, alongside increased government funding for maritime sectors [5] - The focus on technological innovation includes developing new energy vessels to meet international greenhouse gas reduction targets, positioning Japan to leverage its strengths in ammonia and hydrogen fuel technologies [5][6] Group 3 - The labor shortage due to Japan's aging population poses a significant challenge for the shipbuilding industry, with a projected shortfall of 790,000 IT professionals by 2030, necessitating both domestic talent development and foreign labor recruitment [7] - The "doubling strategy" is seen as a national policy aimed at revitalizing the shipbuilding sector, enhancing supply chain security, and addressing industrial hollowing-out issues [8][9] - The Japan-U.S. alliance is being deepened in the shipbuilding sector, with a memorandum signed to enhance cooperation and address global shipbuilding dynamics, including joint talent development and technological innovation [9][10]