Hua Er Jie Jian Wen
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最高法院裁决并未“击溃”关税,一文看清特朗普多种可选工具及优缺点
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2026-02-20 18:42
美国最高法院的裁决并不意味着该国总统特朗普处心积虑构建的关税壁垒就此"击溃",他还可能凭借手 头的多种工具让大规模关税卷土重来。 据央视新闻,当地时间20日,美国最高法院裁定,特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》(IEEPA) 实施的相关大规模关税措施缺乏明确法律授权。这一裁决推翻了特朗普第二个总统任期内实施的大部分 关税措施,但裁决并未终结关税政策本身。 虽然这一裁决动摇了特朗普的核心经济政策,但特朗普可以重新启用他在第一任期内使用的关税权力, 还可以动用其他权力,包括上世纪30年代美国大萧条时期问世的一项法律赋权。 华尔街见闻综合各方分析发现,特朗普拥有至少五种替代IEEPA的法律工具重建关税体系,不过,这些 工具相比IEEPA均附带更多的限制条件。 据新华社报道,2018年3月,特朗普签署总统备忘录,依据"301调查"结果,计划对从中国进口的商品大 规模征收关税,并限制中国企业对美投资并购。同年7月和8月,美国分两批对从中国进口的500亿美元 商品加征25%关税。中方依法对美产品采取了同等力度、同等规模的对等措施。2018年9月,美国对 2000亿美元中国输美产品加征10%的关税。作为反制,中方对价值6 ...
特朗普的全球关税政策被美国最高法院驳回。标普涨0.65%,道指涨0.55%,纳指涨0.72%。现货白银日内涨幅达4.5%,报82.06美元/盎司
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2026-02-20 15:09
特朗普的全球关税政策被美国最高法院驳回。标普涨0.65%,道指涨0.55%,纳指涨0.72%。现货白银日 内涨幅达4.5%,报82.06美元/盎司。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。 ...
美国2月标普全球制造业PMI初值 51.2,前值 52.4
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2026-02-20 14:46
风险提示及免责条款 美国2月标普全球服务业PMI初值 52.3,前值 52.7。 美国2月标普全球综合PMI初值 52.3,前值 53。 市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。 ...
美国12月PCE物价指数同比 2.9%,前值 2.8%
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2026-02-20 13:34
美国12月PCE物价指数环比 0.4%,预期 0.3%,前值 0.2%。美国12月核心PCE物价指数同比 3%,预期 2.9%,前值 2.8%。美国12月核心PCE物价指数环比 0.4%,预期 0.4%,前值 0.2%。 市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 ...
美国四季度实际GDP年化季环比初值 1.4%,预期 2.8%,前值 4.4%
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2026-02-20 13:31
市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。 美国四季度核心个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数年化季环比初值 2.7%,前值 2.9%。 风险提示及免责条款 ...
谷歌高层回应AI泡沫质疑:这是工业革命,但速度快10倍、规模大10倍
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2026-02-20 12:16
谷歌核心管理层齐聚印度,在回应市场对巨额资本开支担忧的同时,披露了关键业务数据,并将当前的AI浪潮比作"速度快10倍的工业革命"。 2月18日,在印度举行的AI峰会上,Alphabet(谷歌母公司)CEO桑达尔·皮查伊(Sundar Pichai)、Google DeepMind CEO德米斯·哈萨比斯(Demis Hassabis)以及谷歌高级副总裁詹姆斯·曼尼卡(James Manyika)罕见同台。 面对市场关于AI投资回报率的质疑以及对"AI泡沫"的担忧,谷歌高管团队从技术演进周期、商业化数据验证以及未来宏观经济影响三个维度进行了详细阐 述。皮查伊在对话中透露,谷歌云业务的积压订单同比增长了一倍,达到2400亿美元。 回应"房间里的大象":这不是泡沫,是新基建 随着科技巨头在AI基础设施上的资本开支不断攀升,华尔街对于成本回收周期的焦虑日益增加。面对主持人关于"CEO们如何向董事会证明成本合理性"的提 问,皮查伊直言不讳地将当下的AI时刻比作历史上的重大基建周期。皮查伊表示: "在某些语境下,有人谈到这是工业革命,但速度快10倍,规模大10倍。" 他将当前的AI投资类比为美国的铁路系统或国家公路系统, ...
欧元区制造业PMI创三年半新高,德国回升拉动整体,法国仍在荣枯线下徘徊
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2026-02-20 11:25
Core Insights - Eurozone economic activity accelerated in February, with manufacturing returning to expansion territory, reaching a 3.5-year high, driven primarily by Germany's performance, while France continues to struggle near contraction levels [1][3] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Eurozone's composite PMI rose from 51.3 in January to 51.9 in February, with manufacturing PMI jumping from 49.5 to 50.8, marking a 44-month high and the first time above the 50 threshold since August of the previous year [1] - Germany's composite PMI increased to 53.1, a four-month high, with manufacturing PMI at 50.7, surpassing market expectations of 49.5 [3] - France's composite PMI improved slightly from 49.1 to 49.9 but remained below the 50 mark, indicating continued contraction [3] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing output index in the Eurozone rose to 52.1, the highest level since August of the previous year, and for the first time exceeded the growth rate of the services sector [2] - New manufacturing orders grew for the first time in six months, with the fastest growth rate in nearly four years [2] - Manufacturing purchasing activity expanded for the first time in three and a half years, although the increase was modest [2] Group 3: Employment Trends - Despite accelerating economic activity, Eurozone companies reduced their workforce for the second consecutive month, with manufacturing layoffs continuing and service sector employment remaining flat [4] - German employment decreased, while France's employment remained unchanged, although other Eurozone regions saw job growth [4] Group 4: Inflation and Cost Pressures - Input cost inflation accelerated for the fourth consecutive month, reaching the fastest level in 34 months, with manufacturing input costs rising at the fastest pace since December 2022 [6] - Output price increases slowed slightly but still recorded the second-fastest growth rate in the past year, with German companies significantly raising prices while French companies lowered output prices for the first time in three months [6] - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain its key policy rates unchanged due to stable economic expansion and high service sector inflation [6]
LPDDR 6时代来临!AI需求太猛,下一代DRAM将比预期更快进入市场
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2026-02-20 10:16
Core Insights - The next-generation low-power DRAM (LPDDR6) is entering the market at an accelerated pace, driven by the surging demand for high-performance and efficient DRAM in the server and AI sectors [1][2] - Major semiconductor design companies are discussing the simultaneous adoption of LPDDR5X and LPDDR6 IP, with companies like Samsung and Qualcomm planning to support LPDDR6 in their next-generation products [1][4] - The explosive growth of AI applications is the primary driver for this transition, as both AI-enabled smartphones and data centers require enhanced DRAM performance [1][2] Performance and Commercialization - LPDDR6 offers a significant performance upgrade, with bandwidth reaching 10.6Gbps to 14.4Gbps, compared to LPDDR5X's range of 8.5Gbps to 10.7Gbps, representing an approximate 1.5 times improvement [3] - Although the basic standards for LPDDR6 have been established, full commercialization will take time, with supporting infrastructure like PHY, controllers, and interface IP not yet fully ready; commercialization is expected by the second half of this year [3] - Currently, LPDDR6 can achieve around 12.8Gbps performance, with expectations to reach 14.4Gbps by next year as companies push for IP development [3] Adoption in Advanced Process Chips - LPDDR is a DRAM standard that emphasizes energy efficiency compared to general DDR; the seventh generation LPDDR5X is already commercialized, while LPDDR6 was finalized last July [4] - Despite the incomplete supporting infrastructure, many AI and high-performance computing semiconductor design companies are advancing their plans to adopt LPDDR6, initially using LPDDR5X until LPDDR6 is mass-produced [4] - Over half of high-performance semiconductor design companies are considering parallel adoption of LPDDR5X and LPDDR6 IP, especially in designs for chips at 4nm and below, with demand growing faster than expected [4]
谷歌美股盘前涨超1%,此前发布Gemini 3.1 Pro,核心推理性能直接翻倍
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2026-02-20 09:05
谷歌美股盘前涨超1%,此前发布Gemini 3.1 Pro,核心推理性能直接翻倍。 市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 ...
“曲线投资”SpaceX IPO,这家韩国券商股年内暴涨200%!
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2026-02-20 09:00
Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Mirae Asset Securities has surged nearly twofold this year, driven by investor speculation regarding the upcoming IPO of SpaceX, highlighting global enthusiasm for the space exploration giant's market debut [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Context - Mirae Asset is the best-performing stock in the MSCI global equity index this year, indicating strong investor interest in gaining exposure to the anticipated merger of SpaceX and xAI, which is estimated to be valued at $1.25 trillion [4]. - The stock's unique holding structure, with over $400 million invested in SpaceX and its sister company xAI, positions it as a scarce asset for investors, benefiting from both the local stock market's strength and its association with Elon Musk's business empire [4][5]. - The overall Kospi index has been buoyed by optimism surrounding AI chip demand and governance reforms initiated by President Yoon Suk-yeol, making it one of the best-performing stock indices globally [5]. Group 2: Dual Value Drivers and Industry Performance - The fundamental performance of Mirae Asset is improving due to the robust Korean stock market, while its holdings in SpaceX provide an additional catalyst, allowing investors to capture value from two sources simultaneously [5]. - Other brokerage stocks, such as SK Securities and Hanwha Investment & Securities, have also seen significant gains, with SK Securities rising approximately 200% and Hanwha exceeding 100% this year [5]. Group 3: Diversified AI Holdings and Revenue Growth - Mirae Asset benefits from a $7.5 billion investment portfolio with substantial exposure to the space and AI sectors, including investments in U.S. AI startup Perplexity AI Inc. and Chinese drone manufacturer DJI Technology [6]. - The company has reported significant growth in its core business, with brokerage revenue projected to reach a record high in 2025, reflecting a 43% increase from the previous year [6]. Group 4: Valuation Concerns - Despite the impressive stock performance, concerns about overvaluation are emerging, with the stock's forward P/E ratio at 21 times, three times its five-year average [8]. - Analysts warn that the stock price may have detached from its fundamentals, with much of the profit growth stemming from unrealized gains in the merger fund, leading to uncertainty regarding the conversion of valuation gains into shareholder returns [8].