Core Insights - The current software sector pullback is driven by a debate over long-term value and whether AI will erode existing profit pools and competitive advantages [1][2] - Goldman Sachs analysts have identified seven bearish arguments regarding software companies, assessing their risks and potential impacts on various segments [1][2] Group 1: Market Concerns - The focus has shifted from short-term growth to concerns about whether AI will diminish software companies' competitive moats [2] - The report categorizes bearish arguments into a structured analysis, assigning risk scores to each argument to evaluate what can sustain long-term value [2] Group 2: System of Record (SoR) Risks - The risk of SoR being replaced is considered low (risk score 1), as generative AI is more suited for analysis rather than transactional processes [3] - However, there is a potential risk of value migrating from SoR to an "agentic operating system/orchestration layer" (risk score 4), which could weaken traditional competitive advantages [5] Group 3: Data Boundaries and Value Migration - If companies keep their data advantages confined within existing applications, the stability of SoR will be maintained, but profit pools may be siphoned off by new layers [4] - The orchestration layer could become more valuable as it enables cross-system reasoning and workflow automation, potentially undermining the traditional user interface and process dependencies of SoR [5] Group 4: Vertical vs. Horizontal Software - Vertical software is currently more resilient but may face challenges from horizontal platforms that allow users to create industry workflows using AI tools (risk score 2) [6] - The report highlights that established vertical software companies have significant barriers to entry due to proprietary data and deep integration into workflows [6] Group 5: Development Costs and Competition - The decline in coding costs due to AI tools will lead to increased competition, but the risk is rated as moderate (risk score 2) since software engineering involves more than just coding [8] - Efficiency gains from AI tools may shift bottlenecks to new areas, particularly in enterprise-level delivery where security and integration remain critical [8] Group 6: Customization Trends - Companies may increasingly prefer to build custom solutions, particularly in scenarios where existing software does not meet their needs (risk score 3) [9] - Palantir is cited as an example of a company successfully leveraging customization to create quantifiable ROI for clients [9] Group 7: Profit Margin Pressures - The industry is expected to experience moderate margin pressures over the next 12-24 months as companies absorb costs related to AI adoption [12] - The shift towards consumption-based pricing models may alter traditional SaaS economics, with some AI-native companies reporting lower margins compared to established SaaS firms [12] Group 8: Technological Uncertainty - The rapid pace of technological advancement presents the highest risk, making it difficult to predict long-term outcomes (risk score 5) [13] - The report notes that the unpredictability of technology evolution can lead to lower valuation multiples due to increased uncertainty [14] Group 9: Stability Signals - Key signals to watch for stability include whether software companies can demonstrate that domain expertise leads to higher quality outcomes and whether financial fundamentals can stabilize or improve [15]

然而，劳动力需求端的表现依然"脆弱"。高盛指出，当前就业增长范围狭窄，且职位空缺持续下降，已 降至约700万个，低于疫情前水平。该行认为，劳动力市场面临的最大下行风险来自人工智能，AI可能 带来更快速、更具破坏性的结构性调整，既可能抑制企业招聘意愿，也可能导致失业人数超出当前预 期。 高盛最新分析指出，美国劳动力市场的基本面正在发生根本性转变。受特朗普政府移民限制政策影响， 净移民人数已骤降80%，这一变化正在重新定义维持失业率稳定所需的就业增长水平。该行预计，到今 年年底，美国每月仅需新增约5万个就业岗位即可维持失业率不变，远低于当前的7万个。 这一劳动力供给的急剧收缩源于移民政策的全面收紧。此前在拜登政府任内，共有超过1080万非法移民 进入美国。进入2025年后，净移民人数已从2010年代年均约100万人的水平降至约50万人。高盛预测， 2026年将进一步下滑至仅20万人。 数据显示，职位空缺目前已降至约700万个，低于疫情前水平且仍在下降。美国劳工统计局的官方数据 也印证了这一趋势，去年年底职位空缺正向600万区间中段滑落。高盛警告称，职位空缺的持续下降将 增加失业率更显著上行的风险，即使劳动力供给增 ...

受益于AI工具OpenClaw在本地设备运行催生的"廉价主机"需求预期，英国低成本计算机制造商树莓派（Raspberry Pi）本周成为散户投资者的追捧 热点。截至周三，其股价在三个交易日内近乎翻倍，推动公司市值自去年5月IPO以来首次触及10亿英镑大关。 此番市场狂热主要源于市场对AI Agent 本地化部署的硬件需求预期。OpenClaw作为近期爆红的AI应用，被誉为首个成功的"AI Agent"案例，能够 在个人电脑本地运行，执行撰写电子邮件及回复即时通讯消息等任务。 其创始人Peter Steinberger于上周末被OpenAI纳入麾下，进一步点燃了市场情绪。社交媒体上的讨论显示，爱好者们正积极寻求利用树莓派这种成 本低廉的硬件，作为运行OpenClaw的物理载体。 然而，这轮受社交媒体驱动的"模因股"（Meme Stock）式涨势在周三午后出现急剧逆转。截至当日收盘，该公司股价回吐部分涨幅，市值回落至 略高于8亿英镑。 尽管如此，该股的大幅波动已引发市场对AI技术更深层次影响的关注。部分投资者开始担忧，随着AI Agent的成熟，其未来可能对商业软件、财 富管理乃至物流运输等行业的白领工作岗位产生 ...

周三，美伊紧张局势骤然升温推动油价大涨。随着美军集结起自2003年伊拉克战争以来最大规模的空中力量，市场面对的不再是去年25分钟速战 速决的"午夜铁锤行动"，而是一场可能持续数天乃至数周的军事行动。 据媒体报道，美国正向中东派遣大量战斗机和支援机群，集结自2003年伊拉克战争以来该地区最大规模的空中力量。过去几天美国持续向中东调 动先进的F-35和F-22战斗机，第二艘搭载攻击机和电子战飞机的航空母舰正在前往途中。对大规模空中作战至关重要的指挥控制机也在调动中， 关键防空系统近几周已部署到位。 据央视新闻，知情人士透露，美军已做好"最早于本周末对伊朗发动军事打击"的准备，但美国总统特朗普尚未最终决定。消息人士称，白宫已获 悉，在近几日美军向中东大幅增兵后，军方已做好周末发动攻击的准备。新华社2月18日报道称，目前没有任何迹象表明美国与伊朗的外交谈判会 取得突破，与此同时，越来越多的证据表明美对伊军事行动"迫在眉睫"。 WTI原油周三日内涨幅达5%，报65.04美元/桶。与此同时，市场正在评估多种油价冲击情景：从伊朗160万桶/日出口中断推动油价上涨10-12美 元，到波斯湾1800万桶/日出口受阻可能将油价推 ...

日本首相高市早苗即将提名的日本央行政策委员会新人选，正成为市场研判其货币政策意图的关键窗 口。这项人事决定将揭示高市早苗希望在多大程度上引导央行政策走向。 据彭博援引知情人士，高市早苗最早可能于2月25日的国会会议上，提议替换两名现任委员——野口旭 与中川顺子。其中，野口旭的五年任期将于3月底结束，中川顺子的任期则在6月29日届满。 高市早苗的选举胜利为其执政提供了更强底气。她领导的自民党在众议院获得超过三分之二席位，一举 巩固了此前仅以微弱多数运作的政府。这一显著胜利，叠加胜选后的谨慎言论，有效安抚了市场参与 者。 前日本央行政策委员会成员足立诚司本周受访时直言： "如果她真的想阻止日元走弱或长期债券收益率上升，最好不要选择再通胀主义者。" 高市早苗以支持刺激政策、偏好经济增长和对加息持谨慎态度而闻名。2024年是她成为首相的前一年， 她曾公开表示，当时日本央行加息将是"愚蠢的"。自去年10月上任以来，她已在经济顾问小组中任命多 位再通胀主义者，包括前副行长若田部昌澄和片冈刚士。这两人均曾是她的导师、前首相安倍晋三任命 的央行委员。 尽管这两项提名须经国会两院批准，而高市领导的自民党在参议院未占多数，为人事 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The construction boom driven by the AI revolution is facing multiple constraints, including power supply, water resources, and a shortage of skilled labor, which may dampen optimistic market expectations for AI investment returns [1][2] - The need for over 500,000 additional workers in manufacturing, construction, operations, and power distribution by 2030 in the U.S. highlights the critical labor shortage facing the data center industry [7] Group 2: Power Supply Constraints - Power supply remains the most pressing constraint for data center deployment, with cloud computing and AI workloads requiring proximity to end users, leading to power shortages in crowded markets [3] - Flexible load management could potentially release additional capacity, but its adoption is hindered by the industry's risk-averse culture [3] Group 3: Water Resource Challenges - The industry is shifting towards more energy-intensive cooling technologies due to community and regulatory pressures, resulting in significant energy cost increases [5] - Transitioning to closed-loop and waterless cooling systems could raise power usage effectiveness (PUE) from optimal levels of 1.08 to between 1.35 and 1.40, increasing energy expenses from 8% to 35%-40% [5] Group 4: Land Acquisition and Pricing - Tech giants are purchasing land at unprecedented prices, directly impacting residential development, with Amazon's $700 million acquisition in Virginia exemplifying this trend [8][9] - In Northern Virginia, land prices have skyrocketed, with rural land previously sold for tens of thousands now exceeding $3 million per acre, making it impossible for residential developers to compete [9] Group 5: Future Outlook - The sustainability of the data center capital expenditure surge is crucial for macroeconomic narratives and tech stock valuations, as the assumption is that ongoing construction will translate into measurable productivity gains [2][9]

日经225指数开盘涨0.57％，现涨0.8%。韩国首尔综指涨近3%，一度创历史新高。三星电子现涨逾5%， 消息称其正就HBM4的700美元单价进行谈判。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

Group 1 - Technology and energy stocks were the main drivers of the US stock market's rise on Wednesday, with the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks all gaining, led by Amazon and Nvidia, which saw intraday increases of nearly 3% [1] - Nvidia's stock price benefited from a new agreement with Meta to deploy millions of Nvidia chips over the coming years [1] - Amazon's stock was supported by a 65% increase in holdings from Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, despite a 77% cut in holdings by Berkshire Hathaway [1] Group 2 - Strong economic data, including December new housing starts and core capital goods orders, exceeded expectations, contributing to early gains in major US stock indices [2] - The release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes reignited inflation concerns, leading to a reduction in stock gains and a brief decline in the Dow Jones [2][3] - The minutes highlighted internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions, with some officials advocating for the inclusion of potential rate hikes in guidance [3] Group 3 - The energy sector saw a boost from a rebound in oil prices, with US WTI crude oil rising over 5% at one point, closing at $65.19 per barrel, marking the largest increase in nearly four months [4][39] - Brent crude oil also saw significant gains, closing above $70 for the first time this month [39] Group 4 - The gold market experienced fluctuations, with spot gold briefly rising above $5000 before falling back below this level after the Federal Reserve's minutes were released [5][41] - Silver prices also saw a rise, with COMEX silver futures increasing by 5.5% [42] Group 5 - The semiconductor sector outperformed the broader market, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising by 0.96%, and Micron Technology gaining over 5% after significant purchases by hedge funds [6][12] - The "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks index rose by 0.77%, with notable gains from Amazon and Nvidia [10]

伯克希尔·哈撒韦正坐拥有史以来最庞大的现金和现金等价物储备，不仅已经远超自身的股票持仓量， 其短债持有规模更一度超越了美联储的持有规模。 巴菲特这究竟是在干什么！？ 最新公布的伯克希尔持仓显示，巴菲特在2025年的最后一个季度继续净卖出股票，同时将超过90%的流 动资金投入短期美国国债，年化赚取约130亿美元的无风险利息。 ...

华见早安之声 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 市场概述 科技股力撑美股两连阳，美联储会议纪要显露巨大分歧，一些官员暗示加息可能，美股盘中显著较日高回落，美债跌。 道指一度闪跌。英伟达涨1.6%。被Bill Ackman基金增持的亚马逊涨近2%。芯片指数收涨近1%。获对冲基金Appaloosa大幅增持的美光涨超5%。泛欧股指三 连涨，创历史新高，英股连创新高。 美伊风险助原油大反弹，原油收涨超4%、创近四个月最大涨幅，美油一度涨超5%，布油本月内首次收盘站上70美元。 美联储会议纪要后，美债收益率加速上行。美元指数创逾一周新高，日元跌幅扩大至1%，英镑再创逾三周新低，比特币跌破6.6万美元刷新日低、较日高跌 近4%。 美油大涨5%！美以或对伊朗联合袭击，白宫称谈判取得进展、但关键议题相距甚远。 特斯拉首辆Cybercab下线：没有方向盘和踏板的汽车终于来了。 谷歌抢在苹果iPhone 17e之前发布Pixel 10a，升级有限，仍卖499美元。 金银反弹，盘中黄金涨近3%、白银涨6.5%，美联储纪要后收窄涨幅，黄金失守5000美元。 要闻 美联储会议纪要暴巨大分歧：一些官员支持进一步降 ...