保持全球货物贸易第一大国地位 1月14日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍2025年货物贸易进出口情况。会上，海关总署副署长王军，海 关总署新闻发言人、统计分析司司长吕大良就多个热点问题作出回应。据海关总署统计，2025年，我国 外贸进出口45.47万亿元，增长3.8%。其中，出口26.99万亿元，增长6.1%；进口18.48万亿元，增长 0.5%。 在介绍去年中美经贸情况时，吕大良表示，据中国海关统计，2025年我国对美国进出口4.01万亿元，占 我国进出口总值的8.8%。据美方统计，2025年前10个月，美国对中国进出口3736.4亿美元，占美国进出 口总值的7.8%。根据双方的货物贸易统计数据，我国是美国第三大出口目的地国、第三大进口来源 国，美国是我国第一大货物出口目的地国、第三大进口来源国。 "中美经贸合作本质是互利共赢。维护中美经贸关系稳定、健康、可持续发展，有利于两国，也有利于 世界。中美双方应当共同落实好两国元首共识，通过对话协商，不断压缩问题清单、拉长合作清单，使 中美经贸关系成为中美关系的'压舱石'和'推进器'。"吕大良说。 对于今年外贸形势，王军表示，总的来看，全球贸易增长动力不足，我国外贸发 ...

Core Viewpoint - The first quarter of 2026 is critical for assessing the "inventory return—leasing rate decline—spot tightness alleviation" chain, which will influence platinum prices moving forward [1][13]. Group 1: Price Trends and Drivers - In 2025, NYMEX platinum futures prices rose significantly, ending the year at $2070 per ounce, marking an approximate 127% increase [2]. - The substantial rise in platinum prices in 2025 was driven by a structurally tight supply, cross-regional inventory migration, and favorable macroeconomic conditions [4]. - The global platinum market experienced a supply deficit of 692,000 ounces in 2025, approximately 9% of the annual demand, with total supply decreasing by 2% to 7.129 million ounces [6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for platinum in 2026 is expected to decline by 6% to 7.385 million ounces, primarily due to a significant drop in investment demand, which is projected to decrease by 52% [10][11]. - The supply side is anticipated to see a slight surplus of about 20,000 ounces in 2026, with total supply expected to grow by 4% [9]. - The recovery of recycling supply is crucial for meeting demand, with a projected 10% increase in recycled platinum supply in 2026 [9]. Group 3: Market Sensitivity and Risks - The high concentration of platinum supply in regions like South Africa poses risks, as disruptions in power, labor relations, or geopolitical issues could impact prices through increased leasing rates and reduced available metal [10]. - The sensitivity of prices to policy uncertainties and delivery chain disruptions remains high, particularly if inventory returns are slow or leasing rates remain elevated [13]. - The first quarter of 2026 will be pivotal in determining whether the market can stabilize, with potential for price fluctuations based on inventory and leasing rate dynamics [1][13].

Core Viewpoint - The development of sugar futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange over the past 20 years has significantly transformed China's sugar industry, evolving from a traditional pricing model to a modern, resilient market that actively manages expectations and risks [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Discovery and Market Impact - The introduction of sugar futures in 2006 has enhanced price discovery, providing transparent and continuous price signals that have a correlation coefficient of 0.99 with spot prices [2]. - Sugar futures have become integral to business operations, allowing companies to proactively manage production and sales strategies based on market expectations rather than relying solely on historical experience [2][3]. Group 2: Risk Management Evolution - The risk management tools available to the sugar industry have evolved from basic hedging strategies to a sophisticated array of options, including futures and options, enabling more flexible and effective risk management [4]. - The introduction of sugar options in 2017 marked a significant shift, allowing companies to adopt more dynamic strategies for managing price fluctuations [4][5]. Group 3: Financial Support for Farmers - The "insurance + futures" model has provided crucial financial support to sugarcane farmers, with over 424,000 acres of sugar crops insured and a total compensation of 240 million yuan since 2016 [7]. - This model not only stabilizes farmers' income but also enhances the overall stability of the sugar industry by ensuring predictable planting outcomes [7][8]. Group 4: Industry Integration and Future Outlook - The "Sugar Industry Worry-Free" model integrates risk management across the entire supply chain, benefiting farmers, enterprises, and government, thereby reinforcing the industry's resilience [8]. - As the sugar industry moves towards high-quality development, sugar futures are expected to continue evolving, providing robust financial support to navigate market challenges [9].

近期，鸡蛋现货价格不断走强，期货价格则偏弱震荡。期货日报记者了解到，分化的背后，是市场对短 期涨价持续性与中长期产能去化程度的不同研判。鸡蛋期货"近月弱、远月强"的结构也凸显了交易逻辑 的分歧。 "当前正值春节前鸡蛋备货高峰，加上前期补栏下降和淘汰鸡增多导致存栏下降，基本面改善促使现货 价格重心走高。期货盘面，由于对本轮涨价持续性信心不足，近月合约走势偏弱，远月合约也上涨乏 力。"五矿期货农产品分析师王俊表示。 一德期货生鲜畜牧产业分析师侯晓瑞告诉期货日报记者，从基本面来看，蛋鸡新开产量偏少，养殖端以 正常速度淘汰为主，存栏缓步下降。进入1月，鸡蛋需求逐步好转，食品加工厂集中备货，供弱需强环 境下，鸡蛋现货价格不断走高，后期预计仍有上涨空间。 "鸡蛋期货市场呈现'现实弱、预期强'的局面，近月合约基差回归，远月合约（除特定月份外）不同程 度升水。由于现货价格仍处于上涨通道，期货价格下方存在较强支撑，各合约下跌后不同程度上涨，但 需要考虑高升水的兑现情况，期价在升水状态下大幅拉涨的难度较大。"侯晓瑞说。 记者了解到，在当前市场中，多头与空头的逻辑明确。"多头逻辑主要是产能步入下降通道，行业亏损 已长达一年，盘面估 ...

根据公告，多晶硅期货2701合约交易手续费标准为成交金额的万分之五、日内平今仓交易手续费标准为 成交金额的万分之五，交易指令每次最小下单数量中的每次最小开仓下单数量为10手、每次最小平仓下 单数量为1手，非期货公司会员或者客户单日开仓量不得超过50手。 本报讯 1月14日，广期所发布公告，明确多晶硅期货2701、碳酸锂期货2701合约有关事项。 另外，碳酸锂期货2701合约交易手续费标准为成交金额的万分之三点二、日内平今仓交易手续费标准为 成交金额的万分之三点二，交易指令每次最小下单数量中的每次最小开仓下单数量为5手、每次最小平 仓下单数量为1手，非期货公司会员或者客户单日开仓量不得超过400手。（鲍仁） （文章来源：期货日报网） ...

本报讯上期所昨日发布通知称，2026年，为助力乡村振兴，将继续支持各单位开展天然橡胶支农专项工 作。 根据通知，"保险+期货"项目区域为海南和云南两省的产胶县，"稳产行动"项目区域为海南、云南、广 东三省的龙头胶企。鼓励在国家乡村振兴重点帮扶县、本年度计划有农户等第三方出资的市县等地区开 展的申请项目。 申请数量方面，在"保险+期货"和"稳产行动"范畴内，原则上每家单位在每类项目上可分别提交不超过 两个方案。每个方案挂钩现货数量原则上不得低于1000吨。 通知称，在2025年"保险+期货"项目中（含公司自筹资金开展的项目），对于承做的全部项目赔付率均 低于45%的单位，将不再受理其2026年"保险+期货"项目的申报；对于承做的部分项目赔付率低于45% 的单位，仅受理其一个2026年"保险+期货"项目的申报。"稳产行动"要求与"保险+期货"一致。（鲍仁） （文章来源：期货日报网） ...

1月14日，经中国证监会批准，上海证券交易所、深圳证券交易所、北京证券交易所发布通知，调整融 资保证金比例，将投资者融资买入证券时的融资保证金最低比例从80%提高至100%。 2023年8月，沪深北交易所将融资保证金比例从100%降低至80%，融资规模和交易额稳步上升。近期， 融资交易明显活跃，市场流动性相对充裕，根据法定的逆周期调节安排，适度提高融资保证金比例至 100%，有助于适当降低杠杆水平，切实保护投资者合法权益，促进市场长期稳定健康发展。 需要说明的是，此次调整仅限于新开融资合约，调整实施前已存续的融资合约及其展期仍按照调整前的 相关规定执行。 记者梳理发现，A股融资保证金比例历经多次变化。2006年8月，沪深交易所发布融资融券交易试点实 施细则，规定投资者融资买入证券时，融资保证金比例不得低于50%，即最高可达2倍杠杆；2015年11 月，沪深交易所修订细则，将融资保证金比例从50%上调至100%，即最高1倍杠杆；2023年8月，沪深 北交易所将融资保证金比例从100%降低至80%，融资规模和交易额稳步上升。 前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙认为，经过一段时间连续上攻之后，A股市场累积了比较多的获利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the inter-ministerial joint conference on the development of energy-saving and new energy vehicles highlighted the need to enhance the self-controllable capabilities of the supply chain and accelerate breakthroughs in technologies such as all-solid-state batteries and advanced autonomous driving [1] Group 1: Industry Growth and Achievements - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's new energy vehicle market size increased by 3.6 times, with the cost of power battery cells reduced by 30%, battery lifespan improved by 40%, and charging speed increased by over 3 times, enhancing international competitive advantages [1] Group 2: Future Plans and Initiatives - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan," presenting significant opportunities for the development of intelligent connected new energy vehicles. The meeting called for increased collaboration and improved measures to promote high-quality industry development [1] - Key tasks for 2026 include the preparation of the development plan for the intelligent connected new energy vehicle industry, strengthening coordination with energy and infrastructure planning, and leading innovative industry development [1] - The meeting emphasized the implementation of a new round of high-quality development actions for key industrial chains, focusing on landmark products, basic materials, and software tools [1] - There is a push to expand automobile consumption, promote vehicle trade-in programs, scale up the application of new energy heavy trucks, deepen reforms in new energy vehicle insurance, and stimulate diverse consumer potential [1]

据新华社电两艘油轮13日在黑海遭无人机袭击，虽然无人伤亡，也没有船舶遭严重损坏，但与在这片水 域航运相关的战争险费率当天几乎翻番。 （文章来源：期货日报网） 海事战争险专家芒罗·安德森说："风险在几乎没有迹象和警告的情况下就迅速升级，这已成为黑海海域 的一大显著特征。" 按路透社说法，所有驶往俄罗斯或乌克兰黑海港口，或亚速海周边码头的船舶，均需额外投保战争险。 该险种保障周期通常为7天，保险条款每24小时审核一次。上个月，这一审核周期还是48小时。 英国保险经纪公司麦吉尔合伙公司海事业务主管戴维·史密斯表示，黑海地区战争险保费波动剧烈，正 处于每天一变的状态。 据路透社报道，这两艘油轮为"德尔塔和谐"号和"玛蒂尔达"号，由希腊两家公司分别运营。遇袭时，它 们正在前往俄罗斯位于黑海的南奥泽列耶夫卡码头，装运产自哈萨克斯坦的原油。该码头是哈萨克斯坦 约80%出口国际市场原油的装运地，同时也承担部分俄罗斯原油的装运业务。 哈萨克斯坦能源部13日晚证实了这两艘油轮遭无人机袭击的情况。无人机来源尚不清楚。运营油轮的德 尔塔油轮公司和塞纳马里斯公司均表示，两艘船上的船员安然无恙，船上一度起火，但随后被扑灭。初 步评估显示 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive industry has achieved significant breakthroughs during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, maintaining annual production and sales above 30 million units for three consecutive years, with revenue surpassing 10 trillion yuan and becoming the world's largest exporter [1][2] - By 2025, the industry is expected to reach cumulative production and sales of 34.53 million and 34.40 million vehicles, representing year-on-year growth of 10.4% and 9.4%, respectively, setting new historical records [1] - Domestic sales of traditional fuel vehicles are projected to decline by 4% to 13.43 million units in 2025, while domestic sales of new energy vehicles are expected to continue their upward trend, reaching 16.62 million units, a year-on-year increase of 29% [2] Group 1: Industry Performance - The automotive industry is projected to maintain a production and sales scale of over 30 million units for three consecutive years, with a strong resilience and vitality [1] - In 2025, domestic vehicle sales are expected to reach 27.30 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [2] - The export of automobiles is anticipated to exceed 7 million units in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 21.1%, driven by the increasing international competitiveness of Chinese brands [2] Group 2: New Energy Vehicles - New energy vehicle production and sales are expected to exceed 16 million units in 2025, maintaining the global leadership position for 11 consecutive years [2] - The share of new energy vehicles in total vehicle sales is projected to reach 47.9% in 2025, an increase of 7 percentage points compared to 2024 [2] - The export of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 2.615 million units in 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 100% [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - For 2026, the total automotive sales are forecasted to be 34.75 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1%, with passenger vehicle sales expected to reach 30.25 million units [4] - The growth of new energy vehicle sales is projected to be 15.2% in 2026, reaching 19 million units [4] - The automotive export volume is expected to reach 7.4 million units in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.3% [4]