Core Insights - The Chinese automotive industry has achieved significant breakthroughs during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, maintaining annual production and sales above 30 million units for three consecutive years, with revenue surpassing 10 trillion yuan and becoming the world's largest exporter [1][2] - By 2025, the industry is expected to reach cumulative production and sales of 34.53 million and 34.40 million vehicles, representing year-on-year growth of 10.4% and 9.4%, respectively, setting new historical records [1] - Domestic sales of traditional fuel vehicles are projected to decline by 4% to 13.43 million units in 2025, while domestic sales of new energy vehicles are expected to continue their upward trend, reaching 16.62 million units, a year-on-year increase of 29% [2] Group 1: Industry Performance - The automotive industry is projected to maintain a production and sales scale of over 30 million units for three consecutive years, with a strong resilience and vitality [1] - In 2025, domestic vehicle sales are expected to reach 27.30 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [2] - The export of automobiles is anticipated to exceed 7 million units in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 21.1%, driven by the increasing international competitiveness of Chinese brands [2] Group 2: New Energy Vehicles - New energy vehicle production and sales are expected to exceed 16 million units in 2025, maintaining the global leadership position for 11 consecutive years [2] - The share of new energy vehicles in total vehicle sales is projected to reach 47.9% in 2025, an increase of 7 percentage points compared to 2024 [2] - The export of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 2.615 million units in 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 100% [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - For 2026, the total automotive sales are forecasted to be 34.75 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1%, with passenger vehicle sales expected to reach 30.25 million units [4] - The growth of new energy vehicle sales is projected to be 15.2% in 2026, reaching 19 million units [4] - The automotive export volume is expected to reach 7.4 million units in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.3% [4]

据新华社电阿根廷国家统计与人口普查研究所13日公布的数据显示，该国2025年通货膨胀率为31.5%， 与2024年相比下降86.3个百分点，为近8年最低水平。 2023年以来阿根廷经历了恶性通胀，2024年全年通胀率为117.8%。 经济合作与发展组织认为，尽管阿根廷通胀水平持续回落、财政赤字得到弥补，但货币需求高度不稳 定、汇率承压，凸显宏观经济脆弱性及政治不确定性。当地媒体分析认为，当前阿根廷消费下降、失业 率上升、债务持续增长，经济尚未真正复苏。 （文章来源：期货日报网） ...

声明 近日，中泰汇融资本投资有限公司发现有不法分子假冒我司名义，并虚构员工或合作者信息，通过伪造 证件、文件、印章或线上接触等方式，诱导投资人下载"胜启园"软件，开展非法荐股等活动，进而实施 诈骗活动。这些非法行为不仅严重侵害了投资者的合法权益，使投资者面临经济损失等潜在风险，也严 重损害了我司商誉。我司目前已向公安机关报警。 为维护我公司合法权益及市场秩序，澄清事实，我公司特此严正声明如下： 一、我公司从未授权任何第三方或个人以我公司或员工或合作者名义开展上述非法活动。任何假冒中泰 汇融资本投资有限公司及员工等名义以荐股、提供内幕消息等方式向投资者邀请入会、下载APP、邀请 入群、收取费用、承诺收益、盈利分成等行为均系诈骗行为。请投资者注意甄别行为主体，谨防上当受 骗。 二、截至目前，我司从未开发或发行过任何交易软件或交易程序，全网与"中泰汇融资本投资有限公 司""中泰汇融资本""胜启园"等相关交易软件均与我公司无关，系不法分子冒用我司、员工或合作者名 义创建的诈骗工具。请投资者遇到不法证券活动时注意甄别，不要轻易点击任何人提供的来源不明下载 链接，不要随意扫码下载APP，不要随意转账，谨防上当受骗。 三、 ...

作为投教基地的首批入驻机构之一，银河期货在过去两年中深度参与了投教平台的建设与运营。回顾这 段历程，银河期货相关负责人表示："最深的感受可以总结为三点：专业上有加持、资源上能共享、行 业里能共赢。" "期货日报凭借行业权威性与广泛影响力，搭建了高效且受众精准的投教平台，整合了大量的行业投教 资源，实现了行业优质投教资源的共享互通。"银河期货相关负责人表示，投教基地汇聚了行业优秀机 构，形成了相互学习、协同进步的良好氛围，进而在共同推进期货市场投教生态建设的过程中，促使公 司不断精进自身专业服务能力，并融入行业共建中。 在投教内容的具体呈现上，银河期货采取了多元化策略，持续上传包括趣味科普短视频、主题投教活动 纪实等多种形式的资源至投教基地平台。投教基地后台数据清晰地揭示了一个趋势：视频类作品的浏览 量与触达人次长期位居榜首，远超其他形式内容，成为最受投资者欢迎的投教载体。 这一现象背后，是投资者学习偏好与信息接收习惯的深刻变迁。银河期货相关负责人告诉期货日报记 者，相较于文字类内容，视频作品凭借生动形象的画面呈现、通俗易懂的语言表达、贴近生活的案例塑 造等优势，将复杂的期货知识、晦涩的风险防范要点转化为直观易 ...

Core Insights - The United States is the world's largest producer and consumer of natural gas, significantly influencing the global LNG market. The shale gas revolution has transformed the supply-demand dynamics, shifting the U.S. from a net importer to a net exporter of natural gas [1] Production Overview - U.S. natural gas production has steadily increased, surpassing Russia since 2011, with a global share of over 20% from 2015 to 2024, projected to reach approximately 25% in 2024 [2] - From 2014 to 2023, U.S. natural gas production rose from 27.1 trillion cubic feet to 37.8 trillion cubic feet, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.4% [2] - The shale gas revolution began in the late 1990s, making shale gas the largest source of U.S. natural gas, accounting for 77% of production in 2024 [3] Regional Production - Major U.S. natural gas production regions include the Appalachian, Permian, and Haynesville areas, contributing approximately 68% of total U.S. production in the first half of 2025 [4] - In 2023, the Appalachian region produced 33 billion cubic feet per day, ranking second globally, while the Permian and Haynesville regions ranked fifth and eighth, respectively [4] Import Dependency - The U.S. has reduced its natural gas import dependency to 7%-11% from 2015 to 2024, primarily importing pipeline gas from Canada and Mexico [5][6] - Canada remains the largest source of U.S. natural gas imports, accounting for over 96% of total imports, mainly through pipelines [6] Consumption Trends - The U.S. is also the largest consumer of natural gas, with consumption accounting for about 21% of global totals from 2015 to 2024 [7] - U.S. natural gas consumption grew from 27.2 trillion cubic feet in 2015 to 33.1 trillion cubic feet in 2024, with a CAGR of 2%, driven mainly by increased demand for natural gas in power generation [8] LNG Export Growth - Since 2017, the U.S. has become a net exporter of natural gas, with exports rising from 4.5% in 2010 to 18.9% in 2024, and total exports reaching a record 7.7 trillion cubic feet in 2024 [12] - LNG exports have surged, with volumes increasing from 16.7 billion cubic feet in 2015 to 4.37 trillion cubic feet in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 74.4% [13] - In 2024, LNG exports accounted for 57% of total U.S. natural gas exports, with Europe being the primary destination, comprising 53% of LNG exports [14][15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the collaboration is to promote the development of weather-related derivatives to manage risks associated with weather fluctuations, particularly for weather-sensitive industries like renewable energy [1][2] - The collaboration aims to leverage the strengths of each party, with the futures market providing a platform for risk management and the academic expertise of Fudan University contributing to the integration of meteorology and finance [1][2] - The National Meteorological Information Center emphasizes the importance of establishing a financial tool system for weather derivatives, aligning with national strategies to enhance the synergy between finance and meteorology [2] Group 2 - The three parties will work together to integrate resources and promote the application of weather indices in the financial sector, contributing to the modernization of financial meteorological services in China [2] - The collaboration is seen as a practical response to industry challenges and aims to support the development and stable operation of weather indices and their derivatives through improved data governance [2]

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets, including A-shares and commodity futures, have experienced significant gains at the beginning of 2026, but are now facing potential short-term adjustment risks due to overvaluation and market sentiment shifts [1][2][4] Market Risks - Three main risks are identified: 1. High-level asset correction risk due to some assets diverging from fundamentals and facing technical pressure [1] 2. Leverage risk from increasing margin balances and the nature of futures trading, which can lead to significant fluctuations in investor profits and losses [1] 3. Market liquidity risk, where high-priced assets may face "stampede" selling if market sentiment shifts, leading to rapid sector rotation and liquidity exhaustion [1] External Environment - The uncertainty of the external environment is highlighted, with some assets' price increases closely tied to global macro conditions. Any short-term fluctuations in macroeconomic factors, economic policies, or asset fundamentals could significantly impact the market [2] Investment Strategies - Despite potential short-term volatility, the macro environment remains favorable for financial markets, and investors are encouraged to focus on structural investment opportunities. Recommendations include: 1. Avoiding blind chasing of high prices, particularly for assets with significant short-term gains lacking fundamental support [3] 2. Diversifying asset allocation across stocks, commodities, and bonds to mitigate single-asset risk exposure [3] 3. Utilizing flexible trading tools, such as options for risk management, including protective put strategies [3] Long-term Investment Philosophy - The investment approach should shift towards diversified asset allocation, moving from single deposits to a combination of fixed income, equities, commodities, and alternatives to reduce risks associated with individual assets. A balanced approach is advised, focusing on undervalued, high-dividend sectors while avoiding high-flying areas like AI and precious metals [3][4]

巴基斯坦对华PTA作出反倾销肯定性初裁 近日，巴基斯坦国家关税委员会发布第ADC70号案件公告，对原产于中国的精对苯二甲酸（PTA）作出 反倾销肯定性初裁，决定对涉案产品征收为期4个月的临时反倾销税，措施自公告发布之日起生效，终 裁结果预计将在初裁公告发布180日内作出。业内普遍认为，此次裁定虽给国内PTA出口带来短期扰 动，但长期影响整体可控。 根据初裁结果，不同的中国企业适用的临时反倾销税率存在差异。其中，生产商珠海英力士化工有限公 司及其香港出口商适用2.63%的税率，浙江独山能源有限公司及其他所有中国生产商、出口商则统一适 用9.50%的税率。涉案产品对应巴基斯坦税号2917.3610，公告同时明确豁免条款，用于巴基斯坦出口产 品原料及国外捐款援助项目等豁免关税项目所需的PTA，不适用本次临时反倾销措施。 期货日报记者了解到，作为关键大宗有机原料，PTA的应用场景广泛，90%以上用于生产聚对苯二甲酸 乙二醇酯（PET），进而服务于纺织、包装等多个领域。2021年以来，国内PTA出口格局逐步打开，出 口量逐年攀升，但2025年出口增速明显放缓。数据显示，2025年1—11月，国内PTA出口总量约345. ...

本报讯（记者鲍仁）1月13日，第26届瑞银大中华研讨会在上海举办，主题为"新前沿、识变局、谋增 长"。研讨会上，与会专家表示，面对当前全球格局的再平衡及AI驱动的科技革命加速，整个中国资产 的价值将被重估，未来其在全球组合中的权重有望大幅上升。 瑞银集团首席执行官安思杰表示，2025年全球在创新发展、政治动荡与市场意外之间交织并行。按美元 计价，中国与欧洲股市均跑赢美国。黄金价格创下历史新高。美国贸易协定的变化既引发了市场波动， 同时也体现出多国经济的韧性。人工智能和科技相关投资的激增，推动了全球经济增长。 王宗豪认为，2026年上半年中国股市会比下半年机会更多，这是因为"通常大的长线资金会在年初做配 置决策，特别是一季度闲置的'开门红'资金，大概率也会投入到风险资产中"。 不过，王宗豪表示，持续推动股市的抓手是EPS（每股收益）的增长，因此7—8月需关注盈利兑现的情 况。 安思杰认为，2026年仍有诸多值得注意的市场因素。例如，持续升级的地缘局势；人工智能的真实影 响、投资回报率及科技公司估值的合理性；多国债务攀升；公共和私人信贷市场收紧的息差和宽松标准 可能带来的风险；全球市场对分散化投资策略的检视。 （ ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share and commodity futures markets have experienced a strong start in 2026, with A-share trading volume reaching a historical high of 3.65 trillion yuan, but the major indices have collectively adjusted, indicating potential risks in the market [1] Market Performance - A-share market trading volume reached 3.65 trillion yuan, setting a new historical record [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index ended its previous "17 consecutive days of gains," marking the first decline of 2026 [1] - The domestic commodity futures market showed mixed performance, with some previously high-performing assets undergoing corrections [1] Risks Identified - Three main risks are highlighted: 1. High-level asset corrections due to price increases diverging from fundamentals and technical pressures [1] 2. Leverage risks from increasing margin trading balances and the nature of futures "leverage trading" leading to significant fluctuations in investor profits and losses [1] 3. Market liquidity risks, where high-priced assets may face "stampede-like" sell-offs if market sentiment shifts [1] Investor Recommendations - Investors are advised to be cautious of overheated market sentiment and irrational speculation, particularly after significant price increases [1][3] - Specific recommendations include: 1. Avoiding blind chasing of high prices, especially for assets with substantial short-term gains lacking fundamental support [3] 2. Diversifying asset allocation across stocks, commodities, and bonds to mitigate risks [3] 3. Utilizing flexible trading tools, such as options for risk management [3] Long-term Investment Strategy - The investment logic should shift towards diversified asset allocation, moving from single deposits to a combination of fixed income, equities, commodities, and alternatives to reduce risks [3][4] - In the A-share market, it is suggested to avoid chasing high-flying sectors like AI and precious metals, focusing instead on undervalued, high-dividend sectors with a "dollar-cost averaging" strategy to minimize timing risks [3] - In the commodity futures market, strict leverage control and stop-loss settings are essential [3]