今年以来，金、银热度持续攀升，且价格在年末创出新高。截至目前，国际金价年内涨幅超过70%，国 际银价涨幅超过170%。这"史诗级"行情的背后，引发了交易者的一系列疑问：应该如何看待当前的市 场表现？是否过度计价推涨因素？当前位置是配置机遇还是风险区域？带着上述问题，记者采访到多位 市场专家。 金瑞期货贵金属研究员吴梓杰表示，本轮金银"牛市"最核心的宏观催化来自"全球实际利率下行预期+风 险溢价抬升"的组合。而这背后，折射出两大市场逻辑：第一，市场持续将未来政策利率下行、通胀韧 性与财政扩张这三大因素并置定价，由此压低长期实际贴现率，并推高对无信用风险资产的配置需求； 第二，在地缘与金融不确定性上升的背景下，官方部门与私人部门共同推进资产与储备多元化，进而形 成更具"结构性"特征的买盘。 对白银而言，在上述宏观定价逻辑的基础上，还存在新能源与电气化领域相关工业需求的大幅增长，这 已导致市场连续多年出现供应缺口。在现货市场，目前白银库存下降至低位，其成为行情的"放大器"， 推动白银价格走出更强劲的上涨态势。 免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所 ...

12月27日夜盘，上期所沪金主力合约涨0.17%，至1018.10元／克，当周累计涨3.68%。当天，COMEX 金价涨3.98%，至4562美元／盎司。 地缘冲突扰动持续，避险情绪升温。据报道，白宫已下令美军对委内瑞拉石油实施至少两个月"隔离"。 以色列官员预警称，伊朗全力重建弹道导弹库，两国恐再度爆发军事冲突；以色列总理内塔尼亚胡表 示，将与特朗普总统讨论伊朗的核活动问题。乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，他与美国谈判代表维特科夫、 库什纳进行了约1小时的交谈，部分"敏感议题"仍需磋商。虽然特朗普持续对乌施压，但从此前乌方公 布的俄乌"和平计划"草案20点内容可以看出，领土问题并未解决，并且泽连斯基表示乌方不会放弃加入 北约，而这两点都是俄方关切的核心议题，若乌方没有作出让步，则俄乌和谈仍陷入僵局。 上周美元指数整体走弱，金价受地缘政治风险升温的支撑，维持偏强表现。美联储12月如期降息25个基 点，降息仍然是交易主线，12月中旬披露的失业率、消费、景气度等经济数据表现偏弱，对未来美联储 进一步降息形成支撑。综合分析，在地缘政治风险加剧、货币政策预期宽松的支持下，黄金价格料高位 运行。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66 ...

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article is that China's cotton production is projected to increase in 2025, driven by an increase in both planting area and yield [1] Production Data - In 2025, the total cotton production in China is expected to reach 6.641 million tons, an increase of 477,000 tons or 7.7% compared to the previous year [1] - The cotton planting area is projected to be 44.687 million acres, which is an increase of 2.113 million acres or 5.0% year-on-year [1] - The cotton yield is expected to be 148.6 kg per acre, an increase of 3.8 kg per acre or 2.6% from the previous year, marking six consecutive years of growth [1] Regional Analysis - In Xinjiang, cotton production is expected to reach 6.165 million tons, an increase of 479,000 tons or 8.4% compared to the previous year [1] - In the Yangtze River basin, cotton production is projected to be 220,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons or 0.7% year-on-year [1] - In the Yellow River basin, cotton production is expected to be 203,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons or 1.5% compared to the previous year [1]

Group 1: Strategic Cooperation and Financial Infrastructure - Hainan International Clearing House signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Singapore's Asia-Pacific Exchange and Clearing House, marking the first cross-border financial cooperation agreement after Hainan's free trade port closure [1] - The cooperation focuses on cross-border clearing in the bulk commodity spot and OTC derivatives sectors, aiming to create a transparent and robust financial infrastructure for domestic and foreign investors [1][2] - This initiative reflects Hainan's commitment to integrating into the international financial system and enhancing its role in global financial governance [1] Group 2: Development of Bulk Commodity Market - The bulk commodity spot market is at a pivotal point of digital transformation and industrial change, influenced by AI integration, geopolitical tensions, and global supply chain restructuring [3] - Policies encouraging the development of bulk commodity trading platforms have been strengthened, with local governments supporting innovative trading models that align with the needs of the real economy [4] - The organizational structure and business logic of trading platforms have evolved, leading to a more diversified market participation and the emergence of replicable business models [4][5] Group 3: Technological Integration and Market Innovation - The integration of AI, blockchain, and big data technologies is enhancing the operational efficiency and liquidity of the bulk commodity spot market [5][6] - The market is witnessing a shift towards a more standardized and transparent trading environment, driven by regulatory support and technological advancements [6][13] - The future of the bulk commodity trading platforms is expected to focus on comprehensive service capabilities, with an emphasis on risk management and market analysis through advanced technologies [12]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in prices of precious and non-ferrous metals is driven by expectations of a weaker dollar and improved demand, with significant increases in copper, gold, silver, and other metals observed as the year ends [2][5]. Group 1: Factors Driving Price Increases - The expectation of a weaker dollar is influenced by the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts and a shift from balance sheet reduction to asset purchases, which could lead to increased liquidity in emerging markets and commodity markets [2]. - Improved demand expectations are linked to central banks and Wall Street investors increasing their purchases of gold, driving its price higher [2]. - Silver's price increase is attributed to its dual role as both an investment and an industrial metal, with demand rising from sectors like electronics and photovoltaics, which are experiencing high growth [2][4]. Group 2: Specific Metal Demand Drivers - Copper demand is expected to rise significantly due to the growth of AI, which requires substantial electrical and computational infrastructure, with projections indicating that data centers will need large quantities of copper [3]. - Policies in China, such as "Two New" and "Two Heavy," are expected to boost copper demand by supporting durable consumer goods and major engineering projects [3]. - The demand for lithium carbonate is benefiting from the rapid growth of the global energy storage market, particularly in the U.S. and EU, where stable power supply and electric vehicle adoption are driving the need for lithium batteries [4]. Group 3: Supply Chain Considerations - Supply disruptions are contributing to the price increases, with uncertainties in the supply of certain metals like silver, which is often produced as a byproduct [6]. - Potential tariffs on non-ferrous metals proposed by the U.S. could lead to increased prices, prompting suppliers to stockpile metals like copper and silver in anticipation of price hikes [6].

"静态平衡表显示，原油供需失衡的格局将从2025年下半年延续至2026年，其价格中枢面临下移压 力。"在"期货大家谈——2025期货业盘点"系列访谈第十期中，银河期货研究所高级研究员赵若晨对 2026年原油市场进行了深度分析。 她表示，在OPEC+加速增产以及非OPEC+产油国持续释放供应，而原油需求放缓的背景下，2026年原 油供需失衡将加剧。 原油供应步入扩张周期 赵若晨表示，供应扩张是导致原油供需失衡的主要原因。2025年以来，OPEC+增产路径明确，其自愿 减产已在2025年三季度提前结束，并启动了新一轮增产计划，预计2026年大概率维持增产，有效的供应 弹性约在100万桶/日。 非OPEC+产油国的供应亦同步增长。赵若晨表示，预计美国页岩油产量在2025年11月达到创纪录的 1386万桶/日。尽管行业对2026年资本支出态度保守，但技术创新仍在支撑原油产量的韧性。值得注意 的是，2026年加拿大、巴西、圭亚那等国的项目将继续为市场贡献稳定增量。 需求增长趋缓 与供应端的扩张相比，原油需求稍显乏力。赵若晨分析称，从长周期看，全球经济增速放缓导致石油需 求增速已下降至1%左右。从能源结构看，交通燃料需求 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite an increase in peanut planting area in 2025, the overall quality of domestic peanuts is declining, leading to a surplus of low-grade peanuts and a differentiation in pricing between high-quality and low-quality products [1] - The peanut market is experiencing weak demand from both consumption and processing sectors, resulting in a situation where high-quality peanuts maintain stable prices while low-quality peanuts see price drops [1] - As of early December, peanut arrivals at oil factories have increased, leading to a decline in purchase prices, with futures contracts falling below 8000 yuan/ton and entering a phase of consolidation [1] Group 2 - As of December 19, the theoretical crushing profit for peanuts in Shandong was 316 yuan/ton, down from 376 yuan/ton at the end of November, yet still at a near five-year high [2] - Peanut oil and peanut meal prices have been declining since the National Day holiday, with peanut oil priced at 14,383 yuan/ton (down 7.25%) and peanut meal at 3,125 yuan/ton (down 3.55%) [2] - Oil factories are reducing peanut purchase prices to offset losses from declining prices of peanut oil and meal, with purchase prices dropping to 7,200 yuan/ton, an 8.86% decrease since the National Day holiday [2] Group 3 - Peanut meal prices in Shandong have decreased to 3,120 yuan/ton, while soybean meal prices have increased to 3,040 yuan/ton, indicating a lack of correlation in price movements [3] - High levels of peanut inventory, reaching 106,900 tons as of December 19, are contributing to the weak demand for peanut by-products, despite attractive crushing profits [3] - The current stock levels for peanut oil have reached 45,350 tons, the highest for the same period since 2021, indicating a supply surplus [3] Group 4 - Approximately 30% of peanuts remain unsold with farmers, leading to an extended selling period, which may suppress market prices ahead of the Spring Festival [4] - The quality of peanuts is notably varied this year, with uncertainties in the import market due to new tariffs and logistical challenges affecting supply from Africa [4] - To break the current market stagnation, several positive factors are needed, including increased demand for peanut by-products, heightened purchasing activity from oil factories, and a rebound in the broader oil and protein markets [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the dual焦 (coke and coking coal) prices are expected to steadily rise by 2026 due to policy support and supply constraints, while the steel market is transitioning to a dynamic balance, with price stability anticipated [1] Group 2 - The steel industry's main contradiction this year is that the decline in demand is greater than the decline in production, leading to a continuous decrease in crude steel apparent consumption for the fifth consecutive year [2] - The real estate sector is undergoing deep adjustments, with infrastructure investment growth turning negative and manufacturing investment growth dropping below 3%, which impacts overall steel demand [2] - Despite the pressure on demand, steel mill profits are expected to recover significantly in 2025 due to raw material cost reductions [2] - The demand structure for steel is expected to continue adjusting in 2026, with limited incremental demand from real estate policies focused on "digesting stock" and building "good houses" [2] - Manufacturing and exports are anticipated to support steel demand, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizing the construction of a strong manufacturing nation [2] - Although steel demand remains in a downward trend, the space for further decline is limited [2] Group 3 - The dual焦 market is currently in a "tight balance" state, with both coking enterprises and steel mills maintaining low inventory strategies [3] - Domestic coal prices have shown a downward trend, with a significant decrease in coking coal imports, which fell by 4.8% year-on-year [3] - The demand structure for coal is undergoing profound changes, with a slight increase in thermal coal consumption [3] - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to experience a "tight balance" in supply and demand, with prices likely to show strong fluctuations due to policy support and supply contraction [3] - The profitability of coking enterprises is constrained by excess capacity and limited bargaining power, leading to ongoing profit competition among steel enterprises [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that the recent surge in prices of precious and non-ferrous metals is driven by expectations of a weaker dollar and improved demand conditions [2][3][6] - Precious metals such as gold and silver have seen significant price increases, with central banks and Wall Street investors becoming major buyers, contributing to the upward trend in gold prices [3][6] - The silver market benefits from both investment demand and industrial applications, with the gold-silver ratio previously exceeding 80:1, which has influenced silver price increases [3][6] Group 2 - Copper demand is expected to rise significantly due to two main catalysts: the global development of AI, which requires substantial electrical and computational resources, and China's policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [4][6] - The demand for lithium carbonate is being driven by the rapid growth of the global energy storage market, particularly in the US, EU, and China, where lithium batteries are increasingly used for energy management [5][6] - The prices of polysilicon are rising due to industry stockpiling and increased demand for photovoltaic products from the EU and Belt and Road Initiative countries [5][6] Group 3 - The overall increase in demand for metals is attributed to three main factors: the growth of AI leading to higher demand for non-ferrous metals, the implementation of China's policies enhancing metal demand, and the global shift towards a green economy stimulating demand for new energy metals [6] - Supply disruptions are also contributing to the price increases, with uncertainties in the supply of certain non-ferrous metals, such as silver, which is often produced as a byproduct [6]

非OPEC+产油国的供应亦同步增长。赵若晨表示，预计美国页岩油产量在2025年11月达到创纪录的1386万桶/日。尽管行业对 2026年资本支出态度保守，但技术创新仍在支撑原油产量的韧性。值得注意的是，2026年加拿大、巴西、圭亚那等国的项目将 继续为市场贡献稳定增量。 需求增长趋缓 与供应端的扩张相比，原油需求稍显乏力。赵若晨分析称，从长周期看，全球经济增速放缓导致石油需求增速已下降至1%左 右。从能源结构看，交通燃料需求因新能源替代而进入下降通道。未来，原油的需求增长将主要依靠化工原料(石脑油、NGL)来 支撑。 她表示，在OPEC+加速增产以及非OPEC+产油国持续释放供应，而原油需求放缓的背景下，2026年原油供需失衡将加剧。 原油供应步入扩张周期 赵若晨表示，供应扩张是导致原油供需失衡的主要原因。2025年以来，OPEC+增产路径明确，其自愿减产已在2025年三季度提 前结束，并启动了新一轮增产计划，预计2026年大概率维持增产，有效的供应弹性约在100万桶/日。 具体到主要消费国，赵若晨认为，美国油品需求整体平稳；中国则呈现"原料加工需求尚可，下游需求偏弱"的特征，汽油、柴 油需求因新能源替代和经 ...