Core Insights - The futures industry is transitioning from a low-level price competition model to a value-driven service model, focusing on supporting the real economy and enhancing operational efficiency [1][4] - The core competitiveness of futures companies lies in their ability to provide tailored risk management solutions and deepen their service to the last mile of the industry [4][7] Service Iteration and Upgrades - The evolution of services in the futures market has progressed from a 1.0 version focused on knowledge output and channel services to a 2.0 version that includes asset management and risk management services, diversifying revenue streams [2] - Future services are expected to evolve into a 3.0 version, emphasizing risk management partnerships and comprehensive services driven by research and intelligent quantification [2][8] Shift from Price Wars to Professional Competence - The industry is moving away from price wars towards differentiation based on research capabilities, risk control systems, and product innovation, leading to a division between comprehensive giants and specialized firms [3] - As futures companies become risk management partners, they enhance the stability and financing capabilities of real enterprises, reflecting the true value of the futures market [3][4] Building a Service Ecosystem - To effectively serve the last mile of the industry, futures companies need to create a service ecosystem that integrates financial tools into real business scenarios [7] - Innovative solutions like "basis + option" trading and "futures + warehousing logistics" are being developed to address price volatility and ensure stable supply for enterprises [7] Tailored Solutions for Enterprises - Futures companies are providing customized risk management solutions throughout the entire lifecycle of enterprises, from initial risk diagnosis to the establishment of hedging systems and cross-border business expansion [8] - The high-quality development of the futures industry is inevitable, with companies that focus on deepening their understanding of the industry and providing precise services expected to stand out in future competition [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company has developed an upgraded risk management and settlement system tailored for its futures risk management business, addressing the inefficiencies of traditional ERP systems and enhancing operational efficiency and risk control capabilities [2][7]. Group 1: System Development and Features - The new system aims to eliminate data silos and improve real-time data sharing across various functions such as trading, financial settlement, and risk monitoring [3]. - It features an automated matching engine for futures and spot transactions, significantly improving matching efficiency and reducing manual errors [4]. - The system incorporates a proactive risk control mechanism that shifts risk management from post-trade checks to real-time monitoring, effectively mitigating compliance risks and excessive exposure [4]. Group 2: Implementation Phases - The project is being implemented in three phases: 1. Establishing a spot trading system with multi-dimensional analysis and risk warning capabilities [6]. 2. Developing a futures trading data service system that automates profit calculations and links futures records with spot contracts [6]. 3. Migrating the financial system and adding a cash usage forecasting feature to monitor account balances and predict future cash trends [6]. Group 3: Industry Impact and Benefits - The system has significantly enhanced risk management efficiency, enabling dynamic cost control and precise warnings, thus helping companies avoid risks associated with commodity price fluctuations [8]. - The modular architecture of the system supports various business types, including chemicals and agricultural products, making it adaptable for different industry needs [8]. - The successful implementation of the project has attracted interest from other risk management companies and received high praise from external organizations, demonstrating its potential as a model for integrating technology into risk management and supporting the real economy [8].

Core Insights - The analysis by Tian Yaxiong from CITIC Futures indicates that the commodity market in 2026 will be driven by the combination of "U.S. fiscal expansion" and "AI capital expenditure growth," which are crucial for supporting economic growth [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - U.S. fiscal expansion is playing a vital role as a "counter-cyclical support" in the current economic cycle, with a series of legislative measures becoming core variables for economic growth [1] - Major tech companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are projected to invest hundreds of billions to over a trillion dollars in AI-related capital expenditures, creating new demand for non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum [1] - The power density of AI data centers significantly exceeds that of traditional facilities, leading to increased reliance on copper and aluminum for power distribution and cooling systems, which shapes the future commodity market [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Domestic economic recovery is expected to continue, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) likely turning positive after the third quarter of 2026 [1] - The significant increase in export value added indicates resilience in industrial upgrades, while the monetary credit cycle has shown signs of a turning point [1] - The M1-M2 indicators are expected to support a moderate recovery in prices, leading PPI by approximately six months [1] Group 3: Cognitive Discrepancies - Four key cognitive discrepancies were highlighted: 1. The paradox of capacity clearance, where industries like electrolytic aluminum and lithium processing face a "loss-expansion" dilemma, with leading firms expanding despite losses [2] 2. The need to validate whether current massive capital expenditures in AI are overextending future investment potential and if global labor productivity can significantly improve due to AI [2] 3. The U.S. designating copper and silver as critical minerals, leading to increased trade barriers and supply tensions [2] 4. The potential slowdown in the "de-coal" process among emerging Asian economies due to energy security and economic considerations, impacting demand for related commodities [2] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The historical combination of "fiscal expansion + de-globalization" since 1970 suggests that commodities could enter a significant bull market under similar conditions [2] - Investors are advised to focus on structural opportunities in the non-ferrous and precious metals sectors, closely tied to AI and fiscal policies, while remaining cautious of monetary policy shifts and geopolitical events that may cause market volatility [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the geopolitical tensions arising from the U.S. military action against Venezuela, which is closely linked to the country's oil resources and is expected to increase demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [1] - Venezuela has approximately 3,500 tons of potential gold reserves, with a production of 31 tons in 2024, positioning it in the middle tier globally [1] - The U.S. military intervention signifies a strong stance towards resource-rich Latin American countries, potentially threatening the trade flow of key minerals and increasing the geopolitical risk premium on gold and silver prices [1] Group 2 - In the short term, gold and silver prices are expected to continue a volatile upward trend [2] - Long-term factors such as the continuation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, declining U.S. dollar credibility, rising geopolitical risks, and ongoing central bank purchases of gold indicate that the bullish trend for gold and silver remains unchanged [2] - Silver is anticipated to outperform gold due to its industrial and strategic resource attributes [2]

Core Viewpoint - Urea prices in 2026 are expected to exhibit wide fluctuations, with ample supply exerting downward pressure on prices, while flexible export policies provide bottom support [1][14]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - In 2025, the urea industry will see a steady expansion of production capacity, with an expected addition of 4.4 million tons, primarily in the second and third quarters [2]. - By the end of 2025, domestic urea production capacity is projected to reach 79.8 million tons, with a growth rate of 5.83% [2]. - In 2026, approximately 5.27 million tons of urea capacity is still pending production, leading to a nominal capacity growth rate of 6.60% [2]. - The overall supply is expected to remain loose, impacting market prices significantly [6]. Production Costs - The production cost center is anticipated to rise, influenced by a "first suppressed, then lifted" trend in the coal market [3]. - In 2025, the complete production cost of urea from different processes varies, with fixed-bed urea costing 1917 CNY/ton, water-coal slurry at 1526 CNY/ton, and natural gas at 1978 CNY/ton [4]. Downstream Demand - Urea's apparent consumption in China for January to November 2025 was 59.86 million tons, remaining stable year-on-year [8]. - Agricultural demand is the primary driver, with direct fertilization and compound fertilizer accounting for 44.6% and 20.8% of total demand, respectively [8]. - Policies supporting high-standard farmland construction and soil fertility restoration are expected to influence urea demand positively, although the growth rate may slow over time [9]. Seasonal Demand Patterns - Urea demand exhibits seasonal characteristics, with significant usage during the growing seasons, particularly in March, June, and September [10]. - The compound fertilizer production is expected to maintain a slight growth trend, supported by policies aimed at ensuring food production [11]. Export Dynamics - The domestic urea export policy was relaxed in May 2025, with a total of approximately 4.6 million tons of export quotas allocated by November 2025 [13]. - The potential for further expansion of export quotas in 2026 could alleviate domestic supply pressures [14]. Price Outlook - Urea prices in 2026 are expected to fluctuate seasonally, with strong agricultural demand in the first half potentially supporting prices, while increased supply and lower demand in the second half may lead to price declines [14].

Group 1 - The recent surge in coking coal prices is primarily driven by policy disruptions in coking coal supply and the combined effects of market sentiment and funding conditions [1][3] - A recent meeting in Yulin City announced the removal of 26 coal mines from the electricity supply guarantee list due to non-compliance with supply responsibilities, which may tighten coal supply elasticity but not significantly reduce total output [1] - The meeting indicates a shift in policy management towards more flexible coal production oversight, potentially influencing other coal-producing regions and amplifying market expectations of supply contraction [1] Group 2 - Mongolia's recent revocation of special mining licenses for four companies is aimed at deepening mining governance rather than restricting coal output, with a clear intention to increase coal exports to China [2] - Despite the license revocations, the impact on Mongolia's coking coal exports to China is expected to be minimal, as Mongolia remains the largest supplier of coking coal to China, accounting for 50.9% of total imports [2] - Long-term, effective anti-corruption and governance measures in Mongolia could enhance the investment and operational environment in the coal sector, improving supply stability and efficiency [2] Group 3 - The current market for coking coal is experiencing a marginal tightening in supply and demand, with daily pig iron production showing signs of recovery and steel mill profit margins increasing to 38.1% [3] - Coking coal prices are heavily influenced by coking coal costs, and while there is some demand from coking plants, there is caution regarding expanding production due to high raw material prices [3] - The consensus among domestic coking enterprises is to proactively reduce production and control costs, indicating a cautious approach to market fluctuations despite being in an upward price trend [3]

新年伊始，焦煤期货价格强势上涨，周三主力合约一度涨停，周四午盘收涨3%。现货方面，主产区煤 矿成交有所回暖，竞拍成交放量，流拍率大幅下降，但价格仅小幅上涨。 焦煤期货价格上涨的主要原因是商品市场情绪回暖。自2025年10月以来，大宗商品价格强势上涨，其中 有色金属、贵金属和新能源金属表现较强，市场情绪得到提振，继而带动估值相对偏低的黑色品种走 强。 综上所述，焦煤供应稳中有升，需求依然偏弱，基本面并无实质性改善，期货价格上行空间或有限，短 期追高需谨慎。（作者单位：宝成期货） 资讯编辑：祝蓉 021-66896654 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授 权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方 便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。 看向基本面，当前焦煤市场供需格局并无实质性改善，国内供应稳中有升，主 ...

Core Viewpoint - After the New Year, the mainstream region's soda ash spot prices have gradually stabilized, with an increase in export volume in November 2025, but domestic demand remains weak, keeping prices low [1] Group 1: Supply and Production - In 2025, the national soda ash production reached 37.857 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, with December production rising to 3.18 million tons [2] - The operating rate of domestic ammonia-soda plants was 79.2% as of January 2, 2026, a decrease of 4.1 percentage points month-on-month and 7.3 percentage points year-on-year; the operating rate of the soda-lime process was 72.7%, down 1.1 percentage points month-on-month and 8.5 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Two new production units are planned to be commissioned in the first quarter of 2026, adding a total capacity of 3.7 million tons per year, bringing the total domestic soda ash capacity to 44.6 million tons per year [2] - Domestic soda ash companies have been depleting inventory for two consecutive weeks, with inventory dropping to 1.4083 million tons as of January 2, a decrease of 30,200 tons week-on-week and 40,000 tons year-on-year, although the absolute inventory level remains high [2] Group 2: Export and Demand - In November 2025, soda ash exports totaled 189,400 tons, a decrease of 25,100 tons month-on-month; the total export volume from January to November 2025 was 1.9612 million tons, an increase of 922,500 tons year-on-year [2] - The increase in export volume is primarily due to domestic soda ash prices being at a low point, leading to increased export orders; however, future export growth remains uncertain with rising spot prices [2] - As of January 2, 2026, the daily melting volume of float glass nationwide was 153,300 tons, a decrease of 0.9% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year; the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass in December 2025 was 73,500 tons, an increase of 4.2% month-on-month and 2.2% year-on-year [3] - The demand structure for heavy soda indicates that float glass accounts for 35%-40% and photovoltaic glass for 10%-15%; float glass production decreased by 6.5% year-on-year, while photovoltaic glass production fell by 9.3% year-on-year [3] - Light soda demand has increased due to the recovery in the lithium carbonate industry, while the demand for alumina and detergents remains stable; overall, the short-term supply-demand balance for soda ash is unlikely to change significantly [3]

看向基本面，当前焦煤市场供需格局并无实质性改善，国内供应稳中有升，主产地多数停产的煤矿开始 复产。据钢联统计，2026年1月1日至5日，有49座煤矿复产，涉及产能7505万吨，1月产量环比有望增 长。同时，高频数据显示，截至2026年1月8日当周，523家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利用率为85.3%， 原煤日均产量为189.9万吨，环比分别增加5.7个百分点、12.7万吨，增幅显著。此外，去年年底蒙煤积 极冲量，甘其毛都口岸上个月日均通关量为19.11万吨，环比、同比分别增长6.14%、130%。元旦假期 后蒙煤通关车数有所下降，目前通关车数降至1100车左右，依旧处于历史同期高位。整体来看，焦煤供 应压力依然较大。 新年伊始，焦煤期货价格强势上涨，周三主力合约一度涨停，周四午盘收涨3%。现货方面，主产区煤 矿成交有所回暖，竞拍成交放量，流拍率大幅下降，但价格仅小幅上涨。 焦煤期货价格上涨的主要原因是商品市场情绪回暖。自2025年10月以来，大宗商品价格强势上涨，其中 有色金属、贵金属和新能源金属表现较强，市场情绪得到提振，继而带动估值相对偏低的黑色品种走 强。 需求方面，本周钢厂开始复产。根据Mysteel数据 ...

Group 1 - The recent surge in coking coal prices is primarily driven by policy disruptions in coking coal supply and the combined effects of market sentiment and funding conditions [1][3] - A recent meeting in Yulin City announced the removal of 26 coal mines from the electricity supply guarantee list due to failure to meet supply responsibilities, which may tighten coal supply in the region [1] - The adjustment in coal supply management indicates a shift from a "guarantee equals safety" expectation, suggesting stricter enforcement of supply responsibilities for coal mines [1] Group 2 - Mongolia's revocation of special mining licenses for four companies is aimed at deepening mining governance rather than restricting coal output, with a clear intention to increase coal exports to China [2] - The four companies affected primarily operate in metal and coal mining, but the overall impact on Mongolia's coking coal exports to China is expected to be minimal [2] - Long-term, effective anti-corruption and governance measures in Mongolia could enhance the investment and operational environment in the coal sector, improving supply stability and efficiency [2] Group 3 - The current supply-demand dynamics for coking coal show a marginal tightening, with daily pig iron production stabilizing and steel mill profit margins increasing to 38.1% [3] - Despite some demand recovery, the willingness of steel mills to stockpile is limited, which may restrict the extent of demand rebound [3] - The consensus among domestic coking enterprises is to proactively reduce production and control costs, indicating a cautious approach to expanding production despite rising prices [3]