展望未来，预计2026年碳酸锂维持供需双增态势，价格中枢或整体上移，供应端和需求端的年度增速都 有望达到30%。对于储能方面能否在2026年及以后拉动总需求超预期增长，目前行业内分歧比较大。如 果根据《新型储能规模化建设专项行动方案（2025—2027）》中"2027年全国新型储能装机规模在1.8亿 千瓦（180吉瓦）以上"的总体目标来推算，30%左右的年度增速可能是储能需求增速的基准点。 为应对锂价波动，实现稳健发展，产业链企业可以基于产量、库存量等生产经营情况，运用期货进行套 期保值，稳定原料采购成本或锁定产品销售利润。矿产资源储备较充足、技术不断创新、成本控制力强 的企业可能在发展中进一步巩固自身优势。 在政策引导行业加快技术进步和转型升级发展的背景下，锂盐企业需要从技术创新、绿色发展、产业协 同等多个方面入手，着力提升产业竞争力，增强自身资源保障能力与产业链协同水平。 近期，锂电下游需求相对乐观，储能行业维持高景气度，市场对2026年一季度需求有"淡季不淡"的预 期。2026年年初需要留意下游补库需求和个别锂资源项目复产进度，关注储能需求和供需两侧政策的后 续变动。（作者单位：广州期货） 周一碳酸锂期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in alumina futures prices, which have dropped below 2500 yuan/ton, raise questions about potential turning points in the market as prices rebounded last Friday [1]. Group 1: Production and Supply - In November, domestic bauxite production was 4.698 million tons, a slight decrease of 1.6% month-on-month and a 5.3% year-on-year decline; cumulative production from January to November reached 55.213 million tons, up 4.2% year-on-year [1]. - The total production of metallurgical-grade alumina in November was 7.4394 million tons, down 4.4% month-on-month but up 1.4% year-on-year; cumulative production from January to November was 81.897 million tons, an increase of 7.4% year-on-year [2]. - As of last Thursday, the total capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina remained at 11.032 million tons/year, with operational capacity at 8.7832 million tons/year, and the weekly operating rate slightly increased by 0.15 percentage points to 79.62% [2]. Group 2: Pricing and Market Dynamics - The alumina price index reported 2804.9 yuan/ton last Thursday, a decrease of 16.48 yuan/ton from the previous week, with a premium of 300 yuan/ton over the futures settlement price [3]. - Domestic alumina total inventory reached 5.061 million tons, continuing to rise, while electrolytic aluminum plants held 3.516 million tons of alumina inventory, indicating relatively sufficient raw material reserves [2]. Group 3: Import and Inventory Trends - In October, China imported 13.77 million tons of bauxite, a month-on-month decrease of 13.3% but a year-on-year increase of 12.3%; cumulative imports from January to October reached 170.96 million tons, up 30% year-on-year, with Guinea accounting for 74% of imports [1]. - As of last weekend, domestic bauxite port inventory was 26.4354 million tons, a significant decrease of 1.475 million tons from the previous week [1].

"跌跌不休"的氯碱化工市场终于迎来"喘息"之机，继PVC期价跌破2015年低点、烧碱期价创上市以来新 低后，12月15日两大品种均出现反弹行情，烧碱主力合约涨幅达3.32%；PVC期货主力合约也在触及 4241元/吨的历史低位后止跌回稳。令市场关心的是，这场超预期的下跌是否已触底？此次反弹背后又 藏着哪些底部信号？ 采访中，期货日报记者了解到，此次氯碱品种的持续走弱市场早有预期，但跌幅之深却超出多数参与者 判断。两大品种的下跌逻辑虽各有侧重，但"高供应、弱需求、高库存"的共性矛盾贯穿始终。 "PVC的矛盾激化核心在供应端。"一德期货分析师张丽表示，上半年PVC还处于良性去库周期，自去年 11月开启的去库趋势延续至5月底，高库存矛盾有效缓解，西北地区企业甚至从微亏转向微盈，但6月后 形势急转直下，春检结束后存量开工同比偏高，叠加8月后135万吨新增产能兑现，形成"存量+增量"双 杀格局，供应大幅放量。 需求端则缺乏支撑。尽管2025年1—10月PVC粉出口同比增加49%，但11月后出口略有回落，而占需求 65%的地产端持续低迷，2025年1—7月全国房屋新开工面积同比下降19.4%，下游管材、型材企业开工 率仅 ...

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have entered a new upward trend since late November, driven by macroeconomic factors and supply-side concerns, with expectations of continued support through 2026 [1] Supply Side Summary - Over 3 million tons of smelting capacity is expected to be added in 2025-2026, outpacing copper mine supply growth, which will continue to dominate refined copper supply [2] - The processing fee for imported copper concentrate is currently at -42.86 USD/ton, indicating ongoing tightness in copper mine supply [2] - Major new copper mine projects expected to contribute to supply include the second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine and the Mirador Phase II project, with a projected increase of 540,000 tons in global copper mine supply by 2026 [2] - The next significant release of copper mine capacity is not expected until 2028, maintaining a tight supply situation for copper concentrates through 2026 [2] Demand Side Summary - High copper prices have led to a decline in operating rates for refined copper products, with a notable increase in the price difference between refined copper and scrap copper, highlighting a substitution effect [3] - Despite short-term demand suppression, there is no significant pessimism in the market, as copper plays a crucial role in the global transition to green energy and electrification [3] - The demand for copper is shifting from traditional sectors to new energy systems, with significant growth expected in global grid investment and data centers, projected to increase by 20% annually from 2026 to 2028 [3] - The global energy storage market is anticipated to see explosive growth starting in 2025, further driving copper demand [3] Inventory Summary - Since 2025, total global copper inventory has increased significantly, with notable accumulations in COMEX and a structural shortage in non-US regions due to expectations of US copper tariffs [4] - The macroeconomic environment, including a pressured US dollar and stable growth in the Chinese economy, is providing support for the copper market [4] - While short-term demand is suppressed, the overall supply pressure is easing, and the construction of new energy systems is expected to drive copper demand growth, leading to a slight reduction in copper inventory by 2026 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is increasingly adopting hedging strategies as a standard practice, with companies actively engaging in risk management through futures and derivatives to navigate a complex market environment [1][4]. Group 1: Hedging Plans and Announcements - Companies like 佛燃能源 and 华润材料 have announced significant hedging plans, with 佛燃能源 planning to invest up to 4.17 billion yuan for commodity hedging and natural gas price locking [1]. - 中国海油 has also disclosed a hedging plan involving a guarantee of 350 million USD, indicating a trend of proactive risk management among chemical enterprises [1][2]. Group 2: Characteristics of Hedging Activities - Recent hedging announcements from chemical companies show a strong alignment with industry needs, with hedging amounts closely tied to actual business operations, reflecting a deep understanding of the essence of hedging [2]. - There is a notable diversification in the types of hedging instruments used, with companies focusing on core product categories and employing various derivatives such as futures, forwards, swaps, and options [2][3]. Group 3: Risk Management Framework - Companies are establishing comprehensive risk management systems that cover all stages of the hedging process, including position limits, trading authorization mechanisms, and credit evaluations of trading partners [3]. - This full-chain risk prevention mechanism aims to mitigate potential risks from extreme market conditions, defaults, and operational errors, thereby ensuring the stable execution of hedging activities [3]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Demand for Hedging - The surge in hedging enthusiasm among chemical companies is driven by changes in the operating environment and improvements in market tools, with increased uncertainty due to fluctuating raw material prices and competitive pressures [4][5]. - The geopolitical situation, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has intensified these pressures, leading to a decline in profit margins for companies as costs rise and selling prices fall [4]. Group 5: Evolution of Hedging Practices - The domestic futures market's development has provided a solid foundation for chemical companies' hedging activities, with a growing array of futures and options available for risk management [5]. - Data indicates a clear trend in the hedging wave, with a significant increase in the number of companies announcing hedging activities, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 153% [5]. Group 6: Strategic Shift in Business Models - Chemical companies are evolving their use of futures from mere risk hedging to innovative business models and gaining pricing power within the industry [6][7]. - Leading companies are transitioning from "using futures for hedging" to "using futures for business operations," with the ability to manage risks across the entire supply chain becoming a distinguishing factor between industry leaders and average participants [7].

深入一线，夯实工作根基。2025年11月底，东证期货联合中国太保（601601）产险云南分公司，赴孟连 县勐马镇天然橡胶林实地勘察。作为当地重要支柱产业，孟连县天然橡胶种植面积达30.33万亩、从业 人员逾1.9万，覆盖人口2.8万余人。然而近年来橡胶价格波动剧烈，胶农收入不稳，种植意愿骤减，严 重制约产业可持续发展。 为深入贯彻落实国家关于巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果、全面推进乡村振兴的决策部署，2025年10月底，在上 海期货交易所的大力支持下，东证期货天然橡胶"保险+期货"项目再次顺利落地云南省孟连傣族拉祜族 佤族自治县(以下简称"孟连县")。 党建引领，凝聚发展合力。自2018年起，东证期货与孟连县开启乡村振兴战略合作。2024年，东证期货 党委与孟连县茶叶和特色生物产业发展中心党支部签订党建共建协议，连续2年开展实地调研与共建交 流，以"项目推进+党建引领+知识培训"组合拳，总结经验、优化方案、凝聚合力，推动"保险+期货"业 务扎实落地，助力孟连县天然橡胶产业发展实现新突破。 金融护航，激发产业活力。2025年，东证期货携子公司东证润和，与太保云南分公司通力合作，采取增 强亚式看跌结构期权方案，实现投保面积 ...

Economic Overview - In November, the national economy continued to show a stable and progressive development trend, with a focus on implementing proactive macro policies and promoting high-quality development [2][6] - The total grain production for the year is expected to exceed 1.4 trillion jin, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [2] Industrial Production - The industrial added value above designated size increased by 4.8% year-on-year in November, with a month-on-month increase of 0.44% [3] - The equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech manufacturing industry saw significant growth, with increases of 7.7% and 8.4% respectively [3] - The production of 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles grew by 100.5%, 20.6%, and 17.0% year-on-year respectively [3] Retail Sales - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan in November, a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [4] - Online retail sales amounted to 144,582 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.1%, and physical goods online retail sales accounted for 25.9% of total retail sales [4] - Service retail sales grew by 5.4% year-on-year, with significant growth in cultural, sports, and travel services [4] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, while manufacturing investment increased by 1.9% [5] - Infrastructure investment fell by 1.1%, and real estate development investment dropped by 15.9% [5] - Investment in high-tech industries, such as information services and aerospace manufacturing, saw significant increases of 29.6% and 19.7% respectively [5] Policy Impact - A series of proactive macro policies have effectively supported stable economic operations, leading to expanded consumer demand and increased key investments [7][8] - The implementation of consumption upgrade policies has resulted in significant sales growth in home appliances and communication equipment [8] - The industrial production growth was supported by policies promoting market demand and industrial upgrades [8] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, marking a continuous recovery trend [9] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, indicating a narrowing decline trend since August [10][11] Long-term Economic Outlook - The resilience of the economy remains strong, with macro policies providing robust support and new growth drivers emerging [12][13] - The expansion of market demand and the continuous growth of new economic drivers are expected to positively impact economic development [12][14] - The upcoming economic policies aim to enhance domestic demand and optimize supply, ensuring a solid foundation for future growth [14]

合作开展"保险+期货"项目的同时，上海中期与中国人民财产保险股份有限公司红河州分公司、金平县 政府开展了天然橡胶"保险+期货"项目服务乡村产业发展培训会及联合党建活动。活动分享了党建经验 做法，开展了"保险+期货"知识专题培训，并签署了党组织结对帮扶协议。 联合党建活动通过理论共学、现场调研、座谈交流等形式，以高质量党建引领高质量帮扶，为脱贫攻坚 成果巩固和乡村振兴注入强劲动力。会上，上海中期与勐拉镇委员会签订了党组织结对帮扶协议书，并 成立联合帮扶工作组，精准对接当地需求。此次联合党建活动打破了传统帮扶模式，将党建工作与帮扶 工作紧密结合。通过党组织"牵线搭桥"，党员干部"冲锋在前"，不仅加强了双方党组织的交流合作，更 精准掌握了贫困县的实际需求，为后续帮扶工作指明了方向。 近日，由上海期货交易所（以下简称上期所）提供保费支持，山东能源集团上海中期期货股份有限公司 （以下简称上海中期）、中国人民财产保险股份有限公司（以下简称人保财险）共同承做的2025年云南 省红河州金平县天然橡胶"保险+期货"价格险项目顺利结项。 项目所在地位于云南省红河哈尼族彝族自治州南部的金平苗族瑶族傣族自治县，是一个多民族聚居的边 ...

围绕"枢纽"建设 奋力谱写中国式现代化河南篇章 中国共产党河南省第十一届委员会第十次全体会议，于2025年11月28日至29日在郑州举行。会议审议通 过了《中共河南省委关于制定河南省国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（简称河南"十五 五"规划建议），系统擎画了"十五五"河南经济社会发展蓝图。 随着中部地区加快崛起、黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展等国家战略深入实施，河南在"十五五"时期面 临前所未有的大好形势和机遇。国家扩大内需战略与全国统一大市场建设的双重驱动，为河南释放区位 交通枢纽、超大规模市场、完整产业体系、人力资源禀赋及深厚文化底蕴等综合优势提供了关键契机。 在此背景下，河南正通过强化"枢纽"与"支点"功能，深度融入服务全国统一大市场建设，进而提升在全 国发展格局中的能级与位势。期货日报记者就此采访了多位业内专家，聚焦河南枢纽经济提质路径，为 区域协同发展建言献策。 1.建设国家要素配置枢纽中心 推动要素资源配置是全国统一大市场建设的核心，它通过打破壁垒、促进要素自由流动和高效组合，直 接提升全要素生产率，为构建新发展格局和实现高质量发展奠定坚实基础。河南"十五五"规划建议提 出，深入推进要素市 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the historical trends of the rebar-iron ore price ratio (螺矿比), which has been declining since 2022 and is approaching historical lows by November 2025 [1] - The analysis focuses on two significant periods of rising rebar-iron ore ratios: 2014-2015 and 2017-2018, highlighting the underlying factors driving these trends [1][4] - In the 2014-2015 period, the rebar-iron ore ratio increased from 3.7 to 6.2, driven by a larger decline in iron ore prices compared to rebar prices, despite both experiencing downward trends [2][3] Group 2 - During 2014, iron ore supply growth outpaced demand, leading to record-high port inventories and a subsequent increase in the rebar-iron ore ratio from 3 to 5 [2] - The ratio saw significant increases during specific periods in 2014, particularly from January to June, September to November, and in March 2015, as iron ore inventories began to decline [3] - In the 2017-2018 period, the rebar-iron ore ratio peaked at 10, with rebar prices rising from 1500 CNY/ton to 2400 CNY/ton, while iron ore prices remained relatively stable [4][5] Group 3 - The article notes that the increase in the rebar-iron ore ratio does not necessarily correlate with rising steel profits, as seen in the 2014-2015 period where profits declined despite the ratio increase [7] - In contrast, the 2017-2018 period saw rising steel profits alongside an increasing rebar-iron ore ratio, attributed to a bottleneck in steel supply and increased demand from the real estate sector [7][8] - The divergence in inventory trends between steel and iron ore is highlighted as a critical factor for the rising rebar-iron ore ratio, with steel inventories decreasing while iron ore inventories increased significantly [9] Group 4 - The article concludes that the rebar-iron ore ratio struggles to rise during absolute price increases due to the higher volatility of iron ore prices compared to rebar prices [10] - It emphasizes that in scenarios of rising absolute prices, iron ore prices tend to be more elastic, which negatively impacts the rebar-iron ore ratio [10] - Conversely, during price declines, the rebar-iron ore ratio may increase as steel mills reduce production in response to falling demand, leading to a more pronounced rise in the ratio under administrative production limits [10]