2025年11月25日，在上海期货交易所(以下简称上期所)和西盟佤族自治县(以下简称西盟县)政府的支持 和指导下，国信期货有限责任公司(以下简称国信期货)及其风险子公司国信金阳资本管理有限公司(以下 简称国信金阳)联合中国太平洋财产保险股份有限公司云南分公司，在西盟县成功举办了天然橡胶"保险 +期货"专题培训会并开展联合党建活动，这已是国信期货连续四年为西盟注入金融活水，为当地天然 橡胶种植户构筑起风险保障屏障。 西盟县位于云南省普洱市，天然橡胶作为当地农户增收的支柱产业，其市场价格波动频繁让胶农面临增 收困境，"割胶辛苦却收益不稳"一度影响了胶农的生产积极性。自上期所推出"保险+期货"项目以来， 西盟县积极开展试点，借助此金融工具帮助胶农抵御价格市场风险，有效保障了橡胶生产的稳定性。此 次项目国信期货承保规模为4000吨，若市场价格低于保险约定的目标价格，可获得相应的差额赔付。 培训会上，各方围绕深化期货、保险与政府多方协作，探索以党建共建为抓手，推动橡胶产业高质量发 展等专题内容进行了深入交流，西盟县政府领导介绍了当地农业发展状况，并对往年"保险+期货"项目 的成果给予了高度的肯定，国信期货项目负责人围绕 ...

宏观面和供应面利好共振 2026年铜矿供应紧张，精铜生产放缓，供应端压力减轻，而在全球新型电力系统建设提速背景下，铜需 求增长可期。美国关税预期将持续"虹吸"全球铜库存，从而造成非美地区出现铜库存结构性短缺。基本 面支撑较强，叠加全球流动性宽松提供偏多宏观氛围，中期继续看涨。 从库存端来看，2025年以来，中国社库累积4.7万吨，保税区累库5.6万吨，LME去库10.6万吨，COMEX 累库32.4万吨，全球总库存累积32.1万吨，至81.2万吨。全球总库存增加明显，主要库存堆积在COMEX 市场，中国累库量和LME去库量相当。这一现象主要是由美国铜关税预期引发的，这一因素在2026年 将吸引全球可交割铜货源继续流向美国市场，从而导致非美地区的精铜实际可流通供应持续偏紧，形 成"全球总库存不低，但区域结构性短缺"的局面，非美地区将持续面临去库压力。 从宏观面来看，美元指数承压以及中国经济稳定增长为铜市提供支撑。美联储12月如期降息，美国财政 赤字问题与美联储主席换届预计将持续施压美元指数。中国继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的 货币政策，坚持"双碳"引领推动全面绿色转型。 综合来看，短期现货需求受到抑制， ...

在12月议息会议上，美联储宣布下调基准利率25个基点，与市场预期一致，今年累计降息75个基点。会 后公布的点阵图显示，美联储决策层的利率路径预测和9月公布点阵图时一致，依然预计明年会有一次 25个基点的降息。这意味着，明年美联储降息动作或较今年明显减少。 市场在会议前基本定价了"鹰派"降息，但美联储主席鲍威尔在发布会上的发言以及准备金管理型购债 （RMP）的启动反而是超预期"鸽派"。因此，除了美元指数下跌之外，以美股和有色金属为代表的风险 资产价格普遍上涨，各期限美债利率均有所下行。除了利率政策外，交易者应关注新一任美联储主席在 资产负债表管理、去监管、提振房地产等方面的不同政策取向及对市场流动性的影响。 美联储12月如期降息，启动扩表 本次会议声明较9月有所变化。经济描述方面，声明仅称失业率"小幅上升"，但不再提"仍处于低位"。 其他有关经济的表述基本不变，继续强调经济活动温和扩张，就业增长放缓，通胀较年初水平有所上升 且保持较高水平。在评估未来是否需要进一步调整利率时，新增了"幅度和时机"的表述。此处变化可能 为此后美联储放慢降息节奏做铺垫，预示着预防式降息可能结束，但也符合会议前"鹰派"降息的预期。 此 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market continues to show strong performance, driven by various factors including expectations of monetary policy changes from the Federal Reserve and heightened geopolitical uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have recently broken through a two-week consolidation range, returning above $4,300 per ounce, with a notable increase in market support [2]. - Analysts expect gold prices to continue rising, with potential upward movement influenced by a weaker dollar and increased market risk aversion [2]. - Upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll and CPI data are anticipated to significantly impact economic outlook and precious metals market trends, with expectations of 40,000 new jobs and a stable unemployment rate of 4.4% [2][3]. Group 2: Platinum and Palladium Market Insights - Platinum and palladium prices have surged, with platinum futures rising by 7% and palladium by 4.73%, supported by favorable macroeconomic conditions and supply constraints [1][4]. - The supply side remains tight, with high leasing rates for platinum and palladium indicating ongoing supply pressure [4]. - The rise in silver prices has also positively influenced platinum and palladium, as increased demand for industrial metals drives investor interest [4]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook for Precious Metals - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive, supported by factors such as weakened dollar credibility and continued central bank gold purchases [4]. - Analysts predict that gold prices will experience a gradual upward trend, despite short-term fluctuations [4].

多空因素相互制衡 当前，铝市场呈现"供给平稳、需求具韧性、成本支撑减弱"的核心特征。而这背后，隐藏了怎样的交易 逻辑？ 沪铝期货价格自12月5日触及22395元/吨的高点后，上行动能减弱，转入高位震荡格局。当前走势核心 在于宏观预期与产业现实的博弈。多空因素相互制衡，使得价格在当前区间展开拉锯，市场正等待新的 驱动因素来打破僵局。 国内电解铝产量高位运行 据SMM统计，11月国内电解铝产量为363.66万吨，同比微增1.47%，环比下降2.82%，同期铝水比例环 比微降0.5个百分点，至77.3%，降幅低于预期，主要得益于铝厂周边加工产能释放以及铝棒加工费走强 支撑生产。经测算，11月电解铝铸锭量约为82.8万吨，同比下降13.4%，步入12月，预计电解铝运行产 能将环比小幅增长，部分新建电解铝项目计划于2025年年底至2026年年初起槽通电，其实际投产进度值 得关注。铝水比例方面，虽然下游需求边际转弱可能促使企业增加铸锭，但与此同时，部分利废企业因 废铝采购困难或成本过高转而采购铝水，加之个别铝厂配套加工项目投产放量，又对铝水比例形成支 撑。综合评估，预计12月铝水比例将下降0.75个百分点至76.6%。后 ...

早上好！ 先来看重要市场行情，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货涨0.12%，报4333.30美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货 收涨3.42%，报64.13美元/盎司。 美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）数据显示，截至11月25日当周，COMEX黄金期货投机客将净多头 头寸增加11291份合约，至107976份合约；COMEX白银投机客将净多头头寸减少806份合约，至20127 份合约。 消息面上，据CME"美联储观察"，美联储明年1月降息25个基点的概率为24.4%，维持利率不变的概率 为75.6%；到明年3月累计降息25个基点的概率为43.5%，维持利率不变的概率为47.5%，累计降息50个 基点的概率为9.1%。 此外，特朗普还就对乌安全保障作简要说明，他表示，美国正在该问题上与欧洲合作。欧洲将在其中发 挥重要作用。特朗普表示，他们正在努力制定安全保障措施。 特朗普还表示，他与俄罗斯总统普京进行了多次对话，还得到了欧洲领导人的巨大支持，各方均希望结 束这场冲突。特朗普表示，必须让乌克兰和俄罗斯达成一致，他认为目前进展顺利，谈话也很有效。 泽连斯基与美国总统特使威特科夫、美国总统特朗普的女婿库什纳以及乌美两国代表 ...

当前蛋鸡养殖行业已步入产能出清周期，但因规模化养殖主体抗风险能力增强，此过程将被延长。中期 来看，随着供给端边际改善，鸡蛋价格存在反弹可能。 2017年至今，蛋鸡行业经历过两次典型的超淘现象，分别出现在2017年及2020年。这两个阶段蛋鸡的超 淘均由养殖利润承压引发，但区别在于：2017年散户主导时期蛋鸡淘汰剧烈且被动；2020年规模化主导 时期蛋鸡淘汰更理性，产能去化速度放缓。2025年，蛋鸡养殖行业亏损程度与2020年相当，淘鸡日龄的 累计降幅接近2017年水平，但存栏量仍维持高位。究其原因，随着产业规模化程度的提升，企业更注重 长期发展与综合效益，短期价格波动不会改变长期发展主线，预计未来产能出清将呈现渐进式特征。 中期来看，老鸡淘汰叠加新开产蛋鸡数量有限，供给端将边际改善。长期而言，行业整体处于缓慢出清 阶段，此阶段的持续时间将受淘鸡节奏、补栏意愿及市场预期等多重因素影响，需持续跟踪动态变化。 （作者单位：正信期货） （文章来源：期货日报） 2025年1—8月，蛋鸡养殖行业持续输出鸡苗，6月后京系补栏节奏有所减缓，而海兰系继续补栏，但9月 起海兰系出现亏损，导致补栏意愿出现实质性下滑。从种蛋利用率看 ...

加拿大油菜籽出口疲软中国市场缺失 12月以来，ICE油菜籽期价持续承压下行，国内菜系中菜粕和菜籽油期价同样承压，虽然在持续下探过 后迎来小幅反弹，但整体呈现出明显的反弹乏力特征。 全球油菜籽产量预期上调供应压力加剧 目前加拿大油菜籽产业深陷"丰产滞销"的结构性困境，核心矛盾在于创纪录的产量与极度疲软的出口需 求形成鲜明对比。具体来看，加拿大统计局的最新报告确认，2025/2026年度加拿大油菜籽产量达到 2180万吨，这不仅创下历史最高纪录，而且显著超出市场此前预期的2125万吨，较9月份的预估大幅上 调了177万吨，同比更是增长了256万吨，增幅高达13.3%。无独有偶的是，美国农业部在12月供需报告 中也同步将加拿大2025/2026年度油菜籽产量预估上调至2200万吨，进一步强化了加拿大油菜籽供应宽 松的预期。加拿大油菜籽超预期的产量增长主要得益于有利的天气条件和增加的种植面积，这从根本上 改变了加拿大油菜籽的供需平衡表，为ICE油菜籽价格带来明显压力。此外，俄罗斯和澳大利亚的产量 上调进一步夯实了全球油菜籽供应宽松的基调。美国农业部在12月的供需报告中，将2025/2026年度全 球油菜籽产量预测值上 ...

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price of aluminum futures has entered a high-level oscillation pattern after reaching a peak of 22,395 yuan/ton on December 5, with market dynamics influenced by macroeconomic expectations and industrial realities [1] - The aluminum market is characterized by a balance of supply and demand, with prices currently in a tug-of-war as the market awaits new driving factors to break the deadlock [1] Group 2: Production and Supply - In November, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6366 million tons, a slight year-on-year increase of 1.47% but a month-on-month decrease of 2.82% [2] - The aluminum water ratio decreased slightly to 77.3%, with expectations for a further decline to 76.6% in December due to marginal weakening of downstream demand [2] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory remained at a relatively low level of 596,000 tons as of December 15, supported by stable demand despite the traditional off-season [4] Group 3: Cost and Profitability - In November, the average cost of the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry decreased slightly by 0.14% to 16,057 yuan/ton, while profits surged by 10.7% to approximately 5,433.03 yuan/ton [5] - By December 12, the immediate profit for domestic electrolytic aluminum had risen to 5,715.47 yuan/ton, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase [5] Group 4: Import Trends - From January to October, China imported approximately 2.211 million tons of primary aluminum, a year-on-year increase of 21.2%, with October imports reaching 248,400 tons, a substantial increase of 42.08% year-on-year [3] - The concentration of import sources remains high, with Russia as the largest supplier and Indonesia showing rapid growth [3] Group 5: Automotive Industry Performance - The Chinese automotive industry showed steady growth in November, with production and sales reaching 3.532 million and 3.429 million units, respectively, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.8% and 3.4% [6] - New energy vehicles (NEVs) performed particularly well, with production and sales exceeding 1.88 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of over 20% [6] Group 6: Economic Outlook - The overall domestic economy is showing signs of recovery, but structural issues such as insufficient effective demand remain prominent [8] - The aluminum market is characterized by stable supply, resilient demand, and weakening cost support, with expectations for continued high-level oscillation in prices [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the benchmark interest rate, aligning with market expectations, bringing the total cuts for the year to 75 basis points, indicating a potential slowdown in rate cuts for the following year [1][2] Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the rate to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% marks the third consecutive cut this year, with a total reduction of 175 basis points since September of the previous year [2] - There was a notable dissent among the Federal Reserve officials, with three voting against the rate cut, indicating internal disagreements on the extent of the cuts [2][3] - The updated dot plot suggests a more dovish outlook, with expectations for only one rate cut in 2026 and a long-term rate forecast of 3.0% [4] Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's economic projections have become more optimistic, raising GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 1.7% and 2.3% respectively, while slightly lowering inflation expectations [4] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, and private sector job losses reported, particularly among small businesses [7] Inflation Trends - Inflation has remained moderate, with core service inflation decreasing from 4.3% to 3.5% over the first nine months of the year, indicating a potential for continued low inflation levels [8] - The overall inflation trend is influenced by the performance of core services, particularly rent, which lags behind housing prices [8] Future Policy Signals - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated a pause in rate cuts but left the possibility of a cut in January open, depending on forthcoming economic data [5] - The market is currently pricing in expectations for further rate cuts, with a consensus that the Federal Reserve may lower rates to around 3% in the future [10] Global Monetary Policy Context - The global monetary policy landscape is diverging, with the Federal Reserve in a rate-cutting cycle while other major central banks are on hold or pausing [10][12] - The potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve Chair could influence future monetary policy directions, with current speculation favoring a dovish stance [10][14]