Group 1 - The overall bullish sentiment in the commodity market has slightly weakened, leading to a slowdown in the recent upward momentum of the oilseed market, but the fundamental support remains strong, maintaining a long-term bullish outlook on oilseeds [1] Group 2 - Malaysia's palm oil production in July was reported at 1.8124 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.09%, slightly below market expectations of 1.83 million tons; exports increased by 3.82% to 1.3091 million tons, slightly exceeding expectations; ending stocks rose by 4.02% to 2.1133 million tons, marking the fifth consecutive month of increase but still below the expected 2.23 million tons [2] - High-frequency data indicates that the seasonal production increase cycle may have peaked, with palm oil production from August 1 to 20 showing only a slight month-on-month increase of 0.3%, while export figures recorded a significant month-on-month increase of 13.6% [2] Group 3 - The USDA reported a significant unexpected decrease in U.S. soybean planting area by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres, a reduction of 6.2 million acres compared to last year; despite an increase in yield forecast from 52.5 bushels per acre to 53.6 bushels per acre, total production was still adjusted down by 4.3 million bushels to 4.292 billion bushels [3] - The ProFarmer annual crop tour indicated that soybean pod counts were higher than last year in most major producing states, with new crop yield estimates at 53 bushels per acre, slightly below the USDA's estimate [3] Group 4 - As the South American soybean export season ends in September, the market will shift back to U.S. soybeans; if high tariff policies persist, there may be a supply gap in the domestic soybean market [4] - The Ministry of Commerce of China announced preliminary anti-dumping measures on canola seeds from Canada, requiring importers to pay a deposit of 75.8%, which could tighten supply as Canada is the largest source of canola imports for China [4] Group 5 - The U.S. EPA's Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) proposal sets higher blending volumes for biofuels in 2026 and 2027, which is expected to increase U.S. soybean oil demand by about 20% [5] - Indonesia's B40 policy is projected to require 1,419 million tons of palm oil, an increase of 223 million tons year-on-year, with potential future implementation of B50 further boosting domestic palm oil consumption [5]

Core Viewpoint - The egg price is expected to face upward pressure in July and August due to seasonal factors, but the rebound is weak this year due to insufficient capacity reduction and early stockpiling for the Mid-Autumn Festival [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The egg-laying industry is currently experiencing an oversupply, weak demand, and intensified cost competition, necessitating close attention to the transmission of profits to capacity [1] - The current culling behavior of farmers will significantly impact egg supply seven months later, as new chicks take time to start laying eggs [2] Market Cycle and Price Trends - The egg market can be qualitatively divided into four phases: prosperity, pressure, clearance, and recovery, with historical averages indicating that the current pressure phase has lasted longer and deeper than average [1] - The average price drop during the pressure phase is 12%, while the clearance phase sees an average drop of around 5% [1] Futures Market Dynamics - The egg futures market has shown a significant decline in August, primarily driven by basis correction, with the near-month contract basis reaching a historical low [2] - The current contango state in the egg futures market reflects ongoing expectations of oversupply, with the near-far month contract spread remaining relatively high [3] Strategic Recommendations - A single strategy is suggested to short near-month contracts as egg prices are expected to continue declining until March next year [3] - An arbitrage strategy is recommended, considering the near-weak and far-strong structure in the futures market, which is likely to persist until capacity is cleared [3] - A dynamic bear spread strategy is advised for the main contract as the market approaches the boundary between the pressure and clearance phases [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that multiple factors, including rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, tight supply, increasing demand, and raw material price hikes, are driving strong performance in natural rubber prices [1][2][3] Group 2 - Natural rubber prices experienced fluctuations but remained resilient due to strong raw material prices, with the international market price for cup rubber at 49.5 THB/kg, a weekly decrease of 0.3 THB/kg [1] - Domestic natural rubber inventory has decreased, with a total of 21.3 million tons as of August 22, down 519 tons week-on-week, marking a year-on-year decline of 16.27% [2] - The automotive and tire export sectors are performing well, with China's vehicle exports reaching 4.16 million units from January to July, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, and tire exports also showing growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - The egg price is declining despite being a peak demand season, primarily due to high production capacity and supply pressures in the market [1][2][3] Supply and Demand Analysis - The current supply of eggs is at a historical high, with a stock of 1.356 billion hens, making it difficult to clear excess supply in the short term [1][2] - The market is experiencing a supply surplus, which is exacerbated by low pork prices acting as a substitute, further suppressing egg prices [1] - Analysts suggest that the current situation requires time to alleviate the oversupply, and short-term price increases may face pressure [2] Profitability and Market Sentiment - Egg producers have been facing continuous losses since May, with only a brief improvement in July, and prices have continued to decline into August [2] - The profitability of egg production is shrinking, leading to a pessimistic outlook among producers [3] - Historical trends indicate that after reaching a low point in profitability, there may be a temporary rebound in prices, particularly around seasonal demand peaks like the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [3] Future Outlook - There is a potential for a slight rebound in egg prices due to seasonal demand, but a long-term price recovery will depend on clearing excess production capacity [3] - As schools reopen and centralized purchasing occurs, there may be some support for egg prices, but this is unlikely to reverse the current oversupply situation [3] - The industry may need to undergo significant capacity reduction to restore market balance, with the timeline for this process potentially being longer than in previous cycles [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a persistent "see-saw" market trend where equities are strong while bonds are weak, driven by monetary policy expectations and market dynamics [1][2][3] - Analysts suggest that the recent rebound in government bond futures is primarily due to a net MLF injection of 300 billion yuan by the central bank, reflecting a monetary easing stance [1][3] - Historical data shows that since 2010, the "see-saw" trend has occurred 13 times, lasting an average of about 3 months, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising approximately 20% during these periods [2] Group 2 - The current "see-saw" trend has lasted about 1.5 months, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 10% and 10-year and 30-year government bond yields rising by 14 basis points and 22 basis points, respectively [2] - Factors influencing the end of the "see-saw" trend include monetary policy, fundamental economic conditions, and significant external events [2][3] - The central bank's recent monetary policy report did not mention any plans for rate cuts or restarting government bond purchases, indicating limited room for bond market strength in the near term [2][3] Group 3 - The equity market's strong performance has led to a significant outflow of funds from the bond market, driven by a heightened profit effect in equities rather than a tightening of the economic outlook [3] - The potential for a rate cut by the central bank in the fourth quarter could provide support for the bond market, especially if it aims to stabilize the real estate sector or prevent rapid appreciation of the yuan [3][4] - The upcoming manufacturing PMI data is anticipated to have a positive impact on the bond market if it exceeds 50, while the equity market may face short-term correction pressure after recent gains [4]

周一，国债期货价格有所企稳，10年期国债活跃券收益率下行至1.77%，主要原因是央行加大公开市场 逆回购、MLF等操作力度，短端Shibor多数下行，资金面转松，银行体系流动性保持充裕，带动国债期 货尤其是短端品种价格上涨。 综上，近期受一系列政策驱动，大宗商品和权益市场轮番上涨，市场风险偏好提升，压制债市情绪，国 债期货价格震荡走弱。不过当前债券牛市仍难言反转，一方面，"反内卷"政策的初衷是为了解决市场供 给过剩，需求不足导致的无序低价竞争问题，参考2015年供给侧结构性改革时的情况，宏观政策尤其是 货币政策仍需保持稳健甚至宽松；另一方面，房地产投资、销售、价格降幅仍有所扩大，而外部影响导 致全球经济的不确定性加大，我国出口面临下行压力，预计央行将继续实施"适度宽松"的货币政策，保 持流动性合理充裕，对债市尤其是短端国债期货价格有一定支撑。 （作者单位：申银万国期货） （文章来源：期货日报） 房地产政策继续优化 从经济数据看，7月规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.7%，虽较6月小幅回落，但高端制造、绿色转型表 现突出；社会消费品零售总额同比增长3.7%，低于前值，主要受极端天气和商品消费转淡等因素影 响；1—7 ...

Group 1 - The stock market shows a strong trend while the bond market faces challenges, leading to a "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds [1][4] - The yield on 10-year and 30-year government bonds has increased by 14 basis points and 23 basis points respectively since early July, reaching 1.7818% and 2.0775% [1] - The bond market sentiment remains cautious despite a slight recovery potential as the 10-year government bond yield approaches the 1.8% mark [4] Group 2 - The macroeconomic fundamentals of the bond market have not changed significantly, with weak financing demand and a reasonably ample liquidity environment providing support [2] - In July, social financing continued to show a divergence in total and structural characteristics, with government bond issuance being a major contributor while real financing demand remains weak [2] - Economic data for July indicates weakening demand pressures, with notable declines in investment, particularly in infrastructure and manufacturing [2][3] Group 3 - The current economic strength suggests that achieving annual growth targets is not overly pressured, with rising commodity prices contributing to a rebound in inflation expectations [3] - The monetary policy is in a "comfortable zone," with no immediate motivation for active easing, and the probability of rate cuts further decreasing in the third quarter [3] - Recent policies aimed at supporting personal consumption loans and service industry loans reflect a coordinated effort between fiscal and monetary policies to boost consumption and stabilize employment [3][4] Group 4 - A new "quasi-fiscal" tool worth 500 billion yuan is set to be implemented, focusing on emerging industries and infrastructure, which can enhance effective investment [4] - The market has experienced three phases since the beginning of the year: tightening liquidity in Q1, a dual bull market in Q2, and a renewed "see-saw" effect in Q3 driven by strong policy support [4] - The future of the "see-saw" market trend will depend on whether the positive expectations for the economic fundamentals can translate into reality and the direction of monetary policy [4]

在他看来，铜精矿供应问题还需要一段时间才能缓解。不过，实际上并不会出现太大的供应缺口，市场 将自动调节供需关系：一方面缺口产生后，铜精矿加工费将大幅下降，进而抑制铜精矿需求；另一方面 供应不足后，冶炼产能的利用率将被迫下降，可能出现新增产能推迟投产时间、高成本冶炼项目减产甚 至停产等情况。 "上期大学堂——从业人员强化班"走进中国铜业 "上期大学堂——从业人员强化班"走进上期所产融服务基地活动近日在云南昆明举行。此次活动包括课 程培训和实地调研两部分，组织40余位期货行业分析师走进上期"强源助企"产融服务基地——中国铜 业，深入交流企业套期保值业务，通过理论与实践相结合，培养期货行业人才，更好地为产业企业提供 风险管理服务。 今年铜市场面临多重压力 今年以来特朗普关税政策反复，再加上铜市场面临精矿供应受限、加工费持续走低等因素，铜价波动较 为剧烈，产业企业面临较大压力。北京安泰科资深专家何笑辉在培训中表示，今年全球冶炼端需求增长 依然主要来自中国，但是随着现货加工费降至较低水平，冶炼厂依靠硫酸等副产品销售来缓解加工费下 滑压力。 另外，值得关注的是，全球经济恢复仍面临较大的压力，市场有效需求不足的态势暂未改变 ...

Group 1 - Recent glass spot prices have shown a weak downward trend, with market sentiment cooling due to the "anti-involution" policy [1] - Apart from the photovoltaic industry, there are currently no signs of the policy extending to other sectors, leading to a return to fundamental trading logic for multiple varieties [1] - The glass market is facing weak supply-demand dynamics, and as the September delivery period approaches, market logic is shifting towards delivery considerations [1] Group 2 - In the context of persistently weak demand across the industry, prices have significantly retreated, indicating a strong downward movement [1] - It is suggested to monitor supply changes, as concentrated production restrictions or reductions could lead to a market reversal [1] - Without any new policy increments, it is expected that the near-term glass futures contracts will continue to experience low-level fluctuations this week [1]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market, particularly gold and silver, is experiencing a strong performance due to expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift, with gold prices showing reduced sensitivity to these changes while silver remains highly responsive [1][3]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Gold futures saw a slight increase of 0.46%, while silver futures rose by 1.89% [1]. - Analysts indicate that silver's price is significantly influenced by industrial demand and domestic macroeconomic policies, leading to greater volatility compared to gold [1]. - The strong performance of copper is also positively impacting silver prices, as both metals often exhibit correlated price movements [1]. Group 2: Silver Demand and Market Sentiment - The solar photovoltaic industry's explosive growth has driven silver demand, with silver paste demand accounting for over 20% of total silver demand [2]. - The global silver supply-demand gap is projected to exceed 5,000 tons by 2025, indicating a robust market outlook for silver [2]. - The gold-silver ratio has decreased from over 100 to below 90, suggesting a valuation opportunity for silver, attracting increased investment [2]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policy - Upcoming U.S. PCE data is a focal point for the market, with expectations that core PCE year-on-year growth will decline to around 3.0% [3]. - The market has fully priced in expectations for two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, with significant declines in the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields [3]. - Analysts emphasize the importance of monitoring Federal Reserve officials' statements and the dot plot for future monetary policy direction [4]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook for Gold and Silver - In the context of geopolitical instability and ongoing central bank gold purchases, gold prices are expected to maintain a bullish trend [4][5]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies and geopolitical tensions continues to support gold's safe-haven appeal [5]. - The correlation between gold and other asset classes remains low, suggesting that gold can serve as a valuable diversification tool in investment portfolios [5].