近期，受政策预期升温及基本面供需两端动态调整等因素的驱动，螺纹钢价格走势呈现震荡偏强态势。 宏观方面，12月市场进入宏观政策窗口期，国内即将召开中央经济工作会议，政策预期偏强。同时，海 外对美联储降息的预期偏强，市场情绪显著回暖。基本面方面，钢厂主动减产与季节性赶工需求形成共 振，推动库存加速去化，为价格提供偏强支撑。 "近期受供暖季环保限产趋严及钢厂利润低位影响，螺纹钢供给端收缩，同时，因季节性赶工需求释放 叠加基建项目托底效应，螺纹钢需求端韧性仍存，共同驱动螺纹钢保持较为健康的去库态势，且当前库 存水平较年内峰值显著回落。"武秋婷说。 对于螺纹钢的后市，何建辉认为，终端需求依然偏弱，随着铁水产量回落，供应压力逐步缓解，市场整 体供需矛盾不大。目前钢价仍处于近年来相对低位，在"反内卷"及潜在的宏观利好政策支撑下，下行空 间不大。而由于需求复苏仍需要较长时间，供应端过剩产能出清相对缓慢，钢价反弹空间也受到明显制 约。市场整体延续震荡筑底的可能性较大，短期考验成本端支撑力度。后期重点关注内需政策推进情 况、中美关税谈判进展，以及供应端限产力度是否加码等。 "预计螺纹钢将维持强预期与弱现实的博弈格局。政策端，12 ...

Group 1: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have experienced a significant rebound, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 100% as of December 9, 2025, driven by both investment demand and physical supply shortages [1] - The global silver supply is projected to remain flat at 813 million ounces in 2025, while demand is expected to decline to 1.12 billion ounces, resulting in a supply gap of 100 to 118 million ounces for the fifth consecutive year [4][5] - Investment demand for silver is bolstered by strong inflows into silver ETFs, with the largest ETF, SLV, holding 15,900 tons of silver, reflecting a 7% year-on-year increase [4] Group 2: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have risen approximately 60% year-to-date, supported by investment demand and central bank purchases, with global central banks acquiring 220 tons of gold in Q3 2025, a 28% increase from the previous quarter [2] - The total global gold demand reached a record high of 1,313 tons in Q3 2025, with investment demand accounting for 537.33 tons, a 47.3% year-on-year increase [2] - The potential for continued monetary easing by central banks may sustain upward pressure on gold prices, although geopolitical tensions and a decline in investment demand could limit short-term gains [2][8] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The independence of the Federal Reserve is at risk, which could exacerbate domestic inflation and undermine the dollar's purchasing power, potentially leading to increased gold purchases by global central banks [3] - The labor market shows signs of slowing, with the annualized hiring rate dropping to approximately 21.5%, indicating a shift in employee retention behavior [7] - The possibility of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in December 2025 is high, but the central bank may issue hawkish statements to prevent market dependency on automatic policy adjustments [6][7]

"此外，白银现货的紧张也导致期现结构的变化。"顾佳男表示，10月前后，伦敦现货白银较期货一度出 现高升水，显示现货极端紧张。 12月10日，COMEX白银期货和沪银均创历史新高！COMEX白银期货价格最高突破62美元／盎司；截 至当日收盘，沪银期货主力合约报收于14373元／千克，涨幅达5.44%。 随着贵金属价格的上涨，港股市场上相关个股多数走强。截至发稿，灵宝黄金涨9.36%、中国白银集团 涨7.46%、珠峰黄金涨3.78%、赤峰黄金涨1.32%。 海通期货研究所总经理助理顾佳男表示，近日白银价格在黄金高位盘整的状态下大幅飙升，金银比已降 至70附近，接近2023年的低点，但当前全球经济增长势头远不及2022—2023年，仅用经济增长这一因素 无法完全解释金银比的下降。 "白银价格大幅上涨的主要原因是需求端的结构性变化。"顾佳男分析称，今年以来，白银需求端出现了 两个极为重要的变化。一是美国年初加征关税，并把白银列入关键矿物，导致很多贸易商从年初开始大 幅从海外进口白银至美国。白银隐含租赁利率在10月一度飙升超过35%，尽管近期仍维持在6%左右， 但已远超短期融资成本，这表明现货市场出借意愿极低，库存紧张 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve continued to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December, aligning with market expectations, and is anticipated to have one more rate cut next year [1][2] - The Fed's officials have become more optimistic about economic growth and inflation prospects, maintaining unemployment rate forecasts consistent with September [1][3] - The Fed initiated the purchase of short-term U.S. Treasury bonds to ensure sufficient reserve supply, with the timing and scale exceeding previous expectations [2] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed has raised GDP growth expectations for this year and the next three years while slightly lowering the unemployment rate forecast for 2027 by 0.1 percentage points [3] - Inflation expectations have been further reduced, with projections indicating a return to 2% by 2028, reflecting a more optimistic view of the economy moving towards a "soft landing" [3] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - The silver market is experiencing tight supply conditions, with a projected market shortfall of 2,950 tons in 2025, as global silver has been in a supply deficit for five consecutive years [4] - Recent trends show a significant decline in COMEX silver inventories, dropping from 16,500 tons in early October to 14,200 tons, while Shanghai silver stocks have rebounded after a decline [4] Group 4: Gold-Silver Ratio - The gold-silver ratio has decreased to around 66, nearing the low point of 2023, driven by a significant rise in silver prices amid high gold price consolidation [5][6] - Silver's price sensitivity to economic cycles is greater than that of gold, with industrial demand for silver accounting for nearly 60% compared to gold's 10% [5] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The combination of interest rate cuts, tight supply, and optimistic market sentiment is expected to support silver prices in the short term, with potential volatility due to market sentiment shifts [6] - The upcoming COMEX silver futures delivery and changes in inventory levels will be critical to monitor for price movements [4][6]

进入12月，焦煤期货价格再度开启跌势。截至12月12日午盘收盘，焦煤期货主力2605合约报1016.5元／ 吨，较11月初的阶段性高点累计下跌超20%，单周跌幅为10.83%，创下年内单周最大跌幅。12月12日夜 盘虽出现尾盘短暂上翘，但难改整体空头格局。究其原因，是基本面变化、政策导向与市场情绪共振的 结果。 需求疲弱的负反馈直接传导至煤焦环节。焦化厂焦煤库存可用天数已升至12.32天，采购节奏明显放 缓，主产区坑口竞拍流拍率从11月的15%升至当前的38%，山西吕梁主焦煤坑口价单周下跌90元／吨。 更值得关注的是，焦炭第二轮提降已于12月12日落地，累计降幅达110元／吨，焦企利润被压缩，进一 步削弱其对焦煤的采购意愿与议价能力。 上下游环节均处于累库状态 在下游采购节奏放缓的背景下，上游矿山库存11月中旬出现拐点，近期其精煤累库呈现加速趋势。中游 流通环节成为累库核心，北方主要港口焦煤库存连续4周回升，目前至286万吨，其中蒙煤占比超60%， 港口堆存已接近警戒水平，部分贸易商被迫降价抛货。下游虽未大幅累库，但焦化厂和钢厂的焦煤库存 可用天数正在攀升，其采购节奏明显放缓。 后市展望 年底进口煤通关放量 ...

原油市场上，在OPEC+持续增产的同时，美国原油产量处于高位，且俄乌地缘冲突结束预期增强，油 价承压。不过，美国对委内瑞拉原油的制裁以及俄乌和谈结束前冲突不断等对油价存在一定支撑。 PX市场上，12月，亚洲PX装置检修不多，供应整体维持偏高水平。截至12月12日，国内PX装置负荷稳 定在88.1%。沙特Satorp和日本出光的装置重启，加之越南NSRP装置的负荷恢复，亚洲PX装置负荷提升 至79.3%。不过，12月以来，PX取价周期转向明年1—2月，且华东PX大厂降负预期较强，PX基本面预 期好转。 PTA供应上，11月，英力士年产能110万吨、能投年产能100万吨、逸盛宁波年产能220万吨的装置检 修，PTA装置负荷维持在75%以下，供应减量明显。12月，PTA无新增检修装置。 PTA需求上，聚酯装置在内外需支撑下，降负节点延后，叠加印度BIS认证取消后，PTA及下游聚酯产 品出口预期增加，聚酯装置负荷维持偏高水平。12月截至目前，聚酯装置平均负荷仍在91%的偏上水 平，超出此前预期。 综合分析，12月，PTA平衡表可能去库20万吨。在此过程中，PTA基差持续走强，自11月中旬的-75元／ 吨运行至当前的- ...

经历了2024年的低速增长后，PVC行业在2025年再度迎来投产高峰。截至目前，年内已新增产能220万 吨，增速接近8%，行业有效总产能也随之突破2900万吨。预计年底前，浙江嘉化30万吨乙烯法产能有 望投产。展望2026年，预计国内仅有嘉化这30万吨产能有望实现量产，并无其他新增计划；国外方面， 预计也仅有阿联酋35万吨产能计划于2026年底投产。综合来看，全球PVC产能扩张进程已步入尾声。 从实际产量看，2025年1—11月，国内PVC累计产量达2232万吨，同比增长4.35%。其中，电石法产量累 计同比增长1.95%，乙烯法产量则大幅增长11.48%。由于年内新增产能主要集中于乙烯法装置，因此供 应端增量压力也主要来自乙烯法装置。尽管PVC单产品亏损有所扩大，但在氯碱板块整体尚有利润的情 况下，2025年以来，PVC行业平均开工率维持在中性偏高水平，且整体高于去年同期。 PVC需求主要集中在房地产与基建领域，其中与房地产的关联尤为紧密。今年1—10月，全国房地产开 发投资完成额同比下降14.7%；房屋施工面积同比下降9.4%，新开工面积下降19.8%，竣工面积下降 16.9%；商品房销售面积同比下降6. ...

Core Viewpoint - The corn prices have shown an unusual upward trend since mid-October, contrary to the typical seasonal decline due to increased supply from new harvests, primarily driven by significant changes in domestic and international corn supply-demand dynamics [1]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The reduction in imported corn due to global trade tensions has led to a tightening supply situation, with domestic old grain stocks continuing to decline [1]. - The quality of new corn is subpar, particularly in North China due to persistent rainy weather, while Northeast corn quality is relatively better, adding regional supply pressure [1]. - There has been a notable increase in demand from the livestock sector, with significant year-on-year growth in pig and poultry inventories, driving up feed demand [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Price Trends - Recent price corrections in corn futures were attributed to reduced profit margins for deep processing enterprises, leading to decreased purchasing willingness as previous inventory replenishment phases concluded [1]. - The market sentiment shifted towards reluctance to sell, compounded by profit-taking activities, resulting in a significant price pullback [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that corn prices will remain in a high-level oscillation pattern leading up to the New Year, with potential downward pressure post-New Year due to traditional selling peaks as farmers seek to repay loans and purchase new agricultural supplies [3]. - Despite short-term upward momentum potentially weakening, factors such as tight supply, increased winter logistics costs, and growing feed demand will continue to support prices [3]. - The acceptance of high-priced corn by downstream sectors remains low, and the price advantage of imported substitutes in southern markets may limit the upward potential for corn prices [3].

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities plans to increase capital for its subsidiary Dongwu Futures, highlighting the ongoing "capital increase wave" in the futures industry over the past two years [1][2]. Group 1: Capital Increase Details - Dongwu Securities announced a capital increase of 500 million yuan for Dongwu Futures, raising its registered capital from 1.0318 billion yuan to 1.5318 billion yuan [2]. - The capital increase will be conducted in proportion to existing shareholdings, with Dongwu Securities contributing 403.3 million yuan (80.66% of the total), while Suzhou Transportation Investment Group and Suzhou Yingcai Investment Group will contribute 14.71% and 4.63%, respectively [5]. - The purpose of this capital increase is to enhance net capital levels, expand business scale, and strengthen market position, aligning with the strategic development of modern securities holding groups [5]. Group 2: Industry Trends - Since the introduction of the "Futures Company Supervision Management Measures (Draft for Comments)" in 2023, at least nine futures companies have completed capital increases, predominantly among leading firms [6]. - The current "capital increase wave" is driven by regulatory requirements and proactive strategies from futures companies to strengthen their positions [7]. - The new regulations have raised the net capital thresholds for high-risk businesses, compelling shareholders to inject capital before obtaining licenses [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The capital increase trend is expected to continue, albeit at a slower pace, with potential mergers and acquisitions among futures companies anticipated [10]. - By 2026, the capital increase wave may intensify, while a slowdown could occur in 2027, particularly if adverse market events arise [10]. - The industry is likely to see a shift in business focus from traditional brokerage to capital-intensive operations, with a growing emphasis on technology and integrated solutions for clients [11].

Core Viewpoint - The corn market is experiencing an unusual price increase in October, contrary to the typical seasonal decline due to increased supply from new harvests. This anomaly is attributed to significant changes in domestic and international corn supply and demand dynamics [1]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The reduction in imported corn due to global trade tensions has led to a decrease in domestic corn inventory, resulting in a tight supply-demand situation even after the new harvest [1]. - The quality of new corn is subpar, particularly in North China due to adverse weather conditions, which has further pressured prices. In contrast, the Northeast region has better quality corn, increasing regional supply pressure [1]. - There has been a notable increase in demand from the livestock sector, with significant growth in the number of pigs and poultry, driving up feed demand [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Price Trends - Recent price corrections in corn futures were observed due to reduced profit margins for deep processing enterprises, leading to decreased purchasing intentions. The demand pull effect has weakened as companies completed their inventory replenishment [1]. - Analysts predict that the Northeast region is unlikely to see large-scale grain sales in late December, as farmers are reluctant to sell due to favorable storage conditions and supportive pricing policies [3]. - The corn price is expected to remain in a high-level fluctuation pattern leading up to the New Year, with potential downward pressure post-New Year due to traditional selling peaks and increased supply [4].