Group 1 - The domestic futures market for black metals showed significant gains, with rebar futures trading at 3471.00 yuan, up 0.26% [1] - As of late January 2026, social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities reached 7.17 million tons, an increase of 80,000 tons or 1.1% month-on-month, but a decrease of 40,000 tons or 0.6% year-to-date, and down 170,000 tons or 2.3% year-on-year [2] - The Central Document No. 1 emphasizes expanding rural consumption through various measures, including support for new energy vehicles, smart home appliances, and green building materials [2] Group 2 - Economic growth targets for local governments are set around 5%, with the steel market absorbing external market fluctuations and showing a slowdown in trading activity due to the upcoming Spring Festival [3] - Inventory levels for major steel products have increased, but there is a divergence among product types, with hot-rolled coils continuing a trend of inventory reduction [3] - Iron ore and coking coal prices remain relatively strong, and future market conditions will depend on macroeconomic sentiment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean oil futures prices are experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a slight decrease observed in recent trading sessions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On February 4, CBOT soybean oil futures opened at 54.49 cents per pound and are currently at 54.44 cents per pound, reflecting a decline of 0.15% [1]. - The trading session on February 3 saw soybean oil open at 53.35 cents, reach a high of 54.78 cents, and close at 54.32 cents, marking an increase of 2.28% [2]. Group 2: Price Adjustments - The price of Argentine soybean oil for April shipment has decreased by $60 per ton to $1,142, while the June shipment price has dropped by $16 per ton to $1,127 [2]. Group 3: Inventory and Trading Volume - As of February 3, the national soybean oil port inventory stands at 879,000 tons, down from 892,000 tons on January 27, indicating a reduction of 13,000 tons [2]. - The trading volume for national first-grade soybean oil on February 3 was 49,000 tons, which represents an increase of 113.04% compared to the previous trading day [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly the recent attacks by Russia on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, which have exacerbated global energy market concerns and increased risk aversion among investors [2] - The recent price movements of silver (TD) indicate a significant recovery after a sharp decline, with the price currently showing an increase of 6.87% and fluctuating between 21550 and 22761 yuan per kilogram [1][2] - Technical analysis suggests that while the upward trend in silver prices is strengthening, there remains a risk of bearish sentiment as the trend line is still below the zero line [2] Group 2 - The geopolitical situation, particularly the conflict in Ukraine, continues to dominate market sentiment despite some easing of risks from trade agreements between the US and India and the resumption of nuclear talks with Iran [2] - The support and resistance levels for silver prices are identified, with support at 20500-21500 and resistance at 22500-23500, indicating potential price ranges for traders [2]

瑞郎兑美元强势延续，2026开年已涨3.5%，2025全年涨幅达12.7%。本周二触及11年高位，周三早间涨 幅收窄但仍处高位，截至2月4日1时19分，1瑞郎可兑1.2885美元。此外，瑞郎兑欧元近一周波动仅32个 基点，契合瑞士央行汇率稳定目标。 截至2026年2月4日，瑞士法郎延续强势，作为核心避险货币，其兑主要币种高位震荡，瑞士央行面临汇 率调控与经济稳增长的双重考验，叠加全球地缘及贸易局势影响，瑞郎后续走势受市场密切关注。 当日瑞郎兑人民币小幅波动，不同时段报价有差异。截至10时46分，汇率为8.9405，较前一交易日微跌 0.008135(跌幅0.1520%)，当日最高8.9582、最低8.9358，昨收与今开均为8.9487；1时01分报价8.9558， 较前一交易日上涨0.0439(涨幅0.49%)，开盘8.9119、收盘8.9119，最高8.9646、最低8.9039。 瑞郎强势给瑞士央行带来政策挑战，该国通胀仅0.1%，徘徊在通缩与负利率边缘，关键政策利率维持 0%，降息空间有限，重启负利率门槛较高，央行行长虽表示必要时会重启，但当前态度谨慎。 外汇干预受双重约束，央行曾通过卖出瑞郎抑制升值 ...

货币政策分化是美瑞短期波动的核心。美联储官员近期释放鹰派信号，强调通胀粘性，2026年大概率维 持高利率、暂缓降息，曾为美元提供支撑，但美瑞反弹动能不足。 2月4日亚市盘中，美元兑瑞士法郎窄幅震荡，截至发稿交投于0.7758，日内微涨0.12%，波动区间 0.7746-0.7765。2026年初以来，美瑞持续弱势震荡，核心受瑞郎避险属性、美联储政策预期及美瑞利差 主导，市场观望情绪浓厚。 瑞士凭借政治中立、经常账户盈余、低外债等优势，是全球避险资金核心配置地，长期压制美瑞走势。 当前全球地缘局势仍存不确定性，区域冲突、经济复苏不均等问题未缓解，避险资金持续流入瑞郎，为 其提供稳固支撑。 资金流向显示，近期全球避险ETF持仓攀升，瑞郎相关资产持仓占比环比提升，避险需求未降温。业内 认为，若全球风险偏好未持续回暖，瑞郎避险溢价将长期存在，美瑞上行空间受限。 短线支撑位0.7735(近期震荡下沿)，守住则维持窄幅震荡，跌破将下探0.7680；阻力位0.7825(20日均线 处)，突破有望扭转弱势，冲击0.7900关口。 瑞士央行退出负利率后收紧节奏偏缓，1月CPI同比约1%，远低于欧美，为稳健政策提供空间。尽管市 ...

汇价上行同时，日本经济面临多重制约，日元弱势虽短期利好出口，但难以扭转出口制造业的承压态 势。2025年以来日本出口同比增速波动下行，2026年全球贸易格局分化将进一步加剧外部需求不确定 性；同时日本政府杠杆率已达211%，财政刺激计划推动赤字率升至3.1%，债务风险隐忧凸显，长期制 约日元走势。此外，日本劳动力短缺问题持续，难以支撑经济强劲复苏，间接影响日元估值。 截至2026年2月4日，美元兑日元报156.06，微涨0.2119%，日内震荡于155.67-156.14区间，今开与昨收 均为155.71。近期汇价持续震荡上行，受益于美日央行政策分化及美国经济韧性支撑，逐步逼近前期高 位区间，多头动能稳步释放。 美元兑日元走强核心源于美日货币政策分化的持续发酵。日本央行正逐步推进货币正常化，缓慢退出负 利率，但节奏审慎，2026年预计CPI回落至1.8%、核心CPI降至1.9%，通胀韧性减弱制约紧缩力度，叠 加日本推出超13.9万亿日元财政刺激计划托底经济，宽松基调未完全转变，对日元支撑有限。反观美 国，AI投资驱动经济保持韧性，2026年上半年美联储宽松见顶、下半年或转向审慎，政策收敛预期强 于日本央行，利 ...

央行政策分化成为影响澳元兑美元走势的关键因素。澳央行明确表态通胀动力仍较强劲，预计通胀将长 期高于目标区间中点，不排除后续进一步加息的可能，政策紧缩预期持续支撑澳元。反观美联储，2025 年12月已完成降息，且结束缩表并启动国库券购买，2026年政策宽松预期未消，与澳央行的紧缩立场形 成鲜明对比，利差优势逐步向澳元倾斜，持续增强澳元吸引力。 截至2026年2月4日，澳元兑美元报0.7031，微涨0.1282%，日内震荡于0.7011-0.7036区间，今开与昨收 均为0.7021。近期澳元表现强势，2月2日澳央行加息落地后，澳元兑美元单日上涨1.15%，截至2月3日 涨幅扩大至1.08%，成功站稳0.70关口上方，延续阶段性反弹态势。 澳元走强核心驱动力来自澳央行加息及美元弱势共振。2月2日，澳央行宣布将现金利率上调25个基点至 3.85%，成为2026年首个采取紧缩政策的主要发达经济体央行，此次加息主要源于通胀压力回升—— 2025年12月澳大利亚CPI升至3.8%，超出市场预期，且私人需求增长强劲、劳动力市场紧张，支撑紧缩 政策落地。同时，美元指数持续走弱形成助攻，2月3日美元指数下跌0.22%报97.3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global currency market is experiencing stable trading with a lack of clear directional guidance, as various economic data and key events are set to be released, influencing market sentiment and currency valuations [1][5]. Economic Data and Events - Key economic data to be released includes the U.S. API and EIA crude oil inventory data, China's Caixin Services PMI, and various PMIs from France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK for January [1][8]. - The U.S. ADP employment figures and the final reading of the S&P Global Services PMI for January will also be closely monitored [1][8]. Currency Analysis - **U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)**: Currently in a weak consolidation phase, with resistance at 97.75-97.82 and support at 97.45 and 97.20 [2]. - **GBP/USD**: The pair is under pressure, with significant resistance at 1.3710 and support at 1.3650, indicating a bearish outlook [3]. - **EUR/USD**: The exchange rate is fluctuating around 1.18, with key support at 1.1780 and resistance at 1.1820-1.1850, lacking strong fundamental support [3]. - **USD/JPY**: The pair is trading within a range of 152-156, with resistance at 156.03 and support at 155.28-154.68, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [4]. Recent News Impact - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, as indicated by comments from officials, is expected to influence the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields significantly [5]. - The U.S.-India trade agreement, which includes reduced tariffs and increased purchases of U.S. goods, is likely to reshape trade dynamics and impact commodity prices [5]. - The recent rise in the ISM Manufacturing PMI to 52.6 suggests a return to expansion, which may bolster the dollar and U.S. equity markets [6]. - Developments in U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations could affect oil prices and market sentiment towards risk assets [6]. - The postponement of key employment data due to government shutdowns may lead to increased volatility in the dollar and Treasury markets [6].

据欧盟委员会，截至2月1日，欧盟2025/26年软小麦出口量为1282万吨，而去年为1282万吨；欧盟 2025/26年大麦出口量为577万吨，而去年为284万吨。 中共中央、国务院发布关于锚定农业农村现代化扎实推进乡村全面振兴的意见。意见指出，加强农产品 市场监测预警和信息发布，统筹做好市场化收购和政策性收储，促进粮食等重要农产品价格保持在合理 水平。合理确定稻谷、小麦最低收购价，完善棉花目标价格政策。稳定实施耕地地力保护补贴、玉米大 豆生产者补贴和稻谷补贴政策。 美国农业部数据显示，截至2026年1月29日当周，美国小麦出口检验量为326828吨，前一周修正后为 378991吨，初值为351001吨。2025年1月30日当周，美国小麦出口检验量为253137吨。本作物年度迄 今，美国小麦出口检验量累计为16685581吨，上一年度同期14067849吨。美国小麦作物年度自6月1日开 始。 据外媒报道，周一，由于大宗商品市场大幅下挫，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）软红冬小麦期货收盘下 跌，基准期约收低2%。 市场资讯： ...

央行公告称，2月3日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1055亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%， 投标量1055亿元，中标量1055亿元。数据显示，当日4020亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净回笼2965 亿元。银行间市场资金面整体平稳，跨月后需求端压力暂时不大，DR001加权平均利率降约5bp至1.31% 附近。匿名点击（X-repo）系统上，隔夜报价在1.3%有逾千亿供给；非银机构质押信用债融入隔夜报价 则在1.5%附近。虽然暂时流动性压力尚好，不过考虑到本周后期地方债发行较为集中，还需警惕叠加 效应影响。 【消息面】 【市场表现】 国债期货收盘多数上涨，30年期主力合约跌0.10%报111.960元，10年期主力合约涨0.02%报108.260元， 5年期主力合约涨0.06%报105.905元，2年期主力合约涨0.03%报102.414元。银行间主要利率债收益率涨 跌不一。10年期国开债"25国开15"收益率上行0.30bp报1.9610%，10年期国债"25附息国债16"收益率下 行0.30bp报1.8120%，30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益率下行0.15bp报2.2500%。 【资金面 ...