Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations, with 11 out of 12 voting members supporting this decision [1] - Fed Chairman Powell emphasized that the rate cut was a "risk management" move, balancing "sticky inflation" and "employment downside risks," asserting that political pressure does not influence decisions [1] - The updated dot plot indicates that most officials expect an additional 50 basis points cut in 2025 and a further 25 basis points in 2026, suggesting a long-term easing direction that supports precious metals [1] Group 2 - Following the rate cut, gold and silver prices initially surged but later retreated due to Powell's cautious remarks, with gold dropping to $3689.4 per ounce and silver to $41.79 per ounce [2] - The short-term pullback is attributed to the market having partially priced in the rate cut expectations and profit-taking by bulls, but the long-term bullish outlook for precious metals remains intact [2] - Key technical support levels to watch are $3550 per ounce for gold and $40 per ounce for silver; as long as prices remain above these levels, the short-term upward trend is expected to continue [2]

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank predicts that due to Federal Reserve rate cuts and central bank gold purchases, gold will continue its record-breaking rally, with an average price of $4,000 per ounce by 2026, up from a previous estimate of $3,700 [1] - The report indicates that central bank gold purchases could reach 900 tons next year, primarily from China, and that the likelihood of further gold price increases outweighs the possibility of a correction to fair value [1][2] - Gold prices have surged approximately 40% this year, recently surpassing the inflation-adjusted record high set in 1980, driven by ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties [1] Group 2 - Concerns regarding U.S. President Trump's recent attacks on the Federal Reserve have heightened market anxiety, with expectations for a more dovish monetary policy supporting non-yielding gold [2] - Deutsche Bank's latest forecasts do not account for potential risks to Federal Reserve independence, although changes in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) membership could introduce uncertainty in policy responses [2] - Goldman Sachs indicated that if the Federal Reserve's independence is compromised, gold prices could potentially soar to nearly $5,000 per ounce with even a small shift in investor holdings from U.S. Treasuries to gold [2] Group 3 - Deutsche Bank raised its 2026 silver price target from $40 to $45 per ounce, citing a fifth consecutive year of physical supply shortages for silver [3]

汇丰： 比亚迪 目标价由143.00元下调至131.00元。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Chinese gold market experienced a decline in physical gold and ETF sales in August, as investors shifted focus to the rising stock market, despite a rebound in jewelry demand and increased import volumes [1][4][5] - Gold prices saw a solid increase in August, supported by rising inflation expectations, strengthened Fed rate cut expectations, and a weakening dollar, alongside ongoing geopolitical and trade risks [1][10] - Wholesale gold demand fell by 9 tons month-on-month to 85 tons in August, marking a decrease of 17 tons compared to the same month last year, representing the weakest August performance since 2010 [1][4] Group 2 - The decline in wholesale gold demand in August contradicted seasonal trends, as demand typically rebounds towards the end of the third quarter [4] - Investors' attention shifted to the strong stock market, with the CSI 300 index soaring 10% in August, the strongest monthly gain since September 2024, which suppressed gold ETF demand [5][7] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold futures trading volume also decreased by 26% month-on-month to an average of 231 tons, although still above the five-year average of 216 tons [7] Group 3 - Chinese investors continued to sell gold ETFs, with a capital outflow of 6 billion yuan (approximately 834 million USD) in August, leading to a 2% decrease in total assets under management for Chinese gold ETFs, now at 148 billion yuan (approximately 21 billion USD) [5][10] - The People's Bank of China continued to increase its gold reserves for the tenth consecutive month, with reserves reaching 74.02 million ounces (approximately 2,098 tons) by the end of August, an increase of 6,000 ounces (approximately 1.7 tons) from July [10] - Despite recent demand slowdown, the World Gold Council anticipates a rebound in gold investment demand amid new price increases, with jewelry retailers likely to stock up for the upcoming National Day holiday in early October [10]

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 美联储宣布降息25个基点，点阵图中值暗示今年将累计降息3次 沙特与巴基斯坦签署共同防御协议 财政部：1-8月证券交易印花税收入同比增长81.7% 李家超：推动香港成为国际黄金交易市场，拓展黄金仓储 市场盘点 鲍威尔：劳动力市场风险偏向下行，此次降息可理解为风险管理式降息 美国财长贝森特曾同时列两处房产为"主要居所"与库克遭罢免理由一致 加拿大央行降息25个基点，从政策声明中删除了降息的前瞻性指引 欧盟宣布对以色列的制裁措施 周三，港股高开高走，科网股带动恒生科技指数走强，百度盘中一度涨近20%，恒指收涨1.78%，报26908.39点。恒生科技指数收涨4.22%，报6334.24点。截 至收盘，恒指大市成交额3602.84亿港元。盘面上，职业教育板块走高，半导体股强势，内房股、航空股回暖；黄金股跌幅居前，禽畜肉类板块回调。个股 方面，花样年控股(01777.HK)涨27%，商汤(00020.HK)涨15.8%，百度(09888.HK)涨15.7%，蔚来汽车(09 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, with Chairman Powell indicating this is a risk management move amid high inflation and weakening employment, seeking a balance between easing and caution [1] FOMC Statement and Economic Outlook - The rate cut marks a resumption of the easing cycle that was paused since December of the previous year, with some officials suggesting a more aggressive cut of 50 basis points [2] - The dot plot indicates two more rate cuts are expected this year, with one official predicting a total reduction of 150 basis points by year-end, while another believes no cuts should occur this year [2] - The median unemployment rate forecast for the next two years has been revised down to 4.4% and 4.3%, reflecting increased downside risks in the labor market [2] Inflation Outlook - Inflation has risen and remains at a "slightly high" level, with the PCE and core PCE inflation expectations for the end of 2026 adjusted upward to 2.6% [3] Economic Growth Outlook - GDP growth forecasts for the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been raised to 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9% respectively, with a forecast of 1.8% for the end of 2028 [3] Powell's Press Conference Highlights - The rate cut is characterized as a risk management decision, with future rate adjustments to be made based on data, emphasizing the rising downside risks in the labor market [4] - Recent inflation trends show an increase, with August's overall PCE expected to rise by 2.7% year-on-year and core PCE up by 2.9% compared to the previous year, indicating upward inflation risks [4] - Economic growth is slowing, primarily due to reduced consumer spending, with the pass-through of tariffs to consumers occurring but less than anticipated [4] - The Fed's commitment to its independence is reaffirmed, with Powell addressing the influence of individual voting members on rate decisions [4] - Market reactions included significant fluctuations in gold prices and movements in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields following the rate decision and Powell's comments [4] Latest Expectations - As of the report, interest rate futures are pricing in a potential reduction of 45 basis points this year and approximately 72 basis points next year, with a 13.3% probability of the Fed remaining unchanged in October [5]

周四，美联储将向投资者传达一个"三部曲式"的信息：官员们在多大程度上重新调整其前景以反映疲软 的就业市场？美联储正变得多么分裂？理事米兰的到来是否给美联储带来了党派倾向？ 尽管美联储想要避开政治纷争，但它还是被稳步地拖入了华盛顿两极分化的对话中。 共和党人指责拜登政府的任命者将美联储推向了气候变化和种族平等等不适当的领域，并在2024年总统 竞选期间通过降息拉选票。 民主党人则指责美国总统特朗普的施压运动，包括试图解雇前总统拜登任命的理事库克、迫使美联储主 席鲍威尔下台的举动以及将米兰安插进美联储。 库克于2022年成为美联储理事，而米兰的确认投票以一票的优势中通过。 利率预计将下降 美联储将于北京时间周四凌晨两点公布利率决议，市场普遍预计该央行将进行自去年12月以来的首次降 息，幅度为25个基点。当时特朗普的当选曾引发担忧，即他的进口关税可能会重新点燃通胀并减缓经济 增长。 在特朗普重返白宫之前，美联储官员曾预计通胀将继续下降至2%的目标，这将允许一系列稳定的降 息，使借贷成本朝向一个更中性的水平。 自那时以来，利率一直稳定在这一区间，而通胀则有所回升。 然而，就业市场似乎已经减弱，更多的美联储官员对需要通 ...

贝森特在2007年做出的相互矛盾的协议，使他在同一时间将位于纽约和马萨诸塞州的房屋作为其主要住 所。但抵押贷款专家表示，没有迹象表明他有任何不当行为。相反，他的案例表明，住房贷款申请文件 中的不一致之处，并不必然是欺诈的证据。 来自贝森特抵押贷款的其他证据显示，他的贷款方美国银行并未依赖这些承诺，也从未期望他会将两处 房屋都作为主要住所。 库克的情况似乎类似，她于2021年为位于密歇根州的一处房屋和亚特兰大的一套公寓签署了抵押贷款文 件，称它们都将在未来一年内成为她的主要住所。这两份与不同信用合作社签订的协议都包含获得房产 贷款的条件，贷款额分别为20.3万美元和54万美元。 但外媒审查的一份文件显示，库克佐治亚州房产的贷款方并未期望她会全职居住在那里。在该信用合作 社发放抵押贷款前几周出具的一份贷款估算中，将其称为"度假屋"。 在上个月一封告知库克她被解雇的信中，特朗普表示，她相互矛盾的抵押贷款承诺足以将她从美联储理 事会免职，称其为"潜在的犯罪行为"，或至少是"重大过失"的证据。 此举发生之际，特朗普今年正寻求对美联储施加更直接的控制。库克已在法庭上对她的罢免提出挑战， 她表示对她的指控是虚假的。 AI播 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's latest economic forecasts indicate differing predictions for interest rate cuts, with Morgan Stanley projecting two cuts this year, while ING remains more pessimistic about the near-term outlook but optimistic for inflation in 2026 and 2027 [3][4]. Economic Growth Projections - Morgan Stanley forecasts a real GDP growth rate of 1.4% for 2025 and 1.6% for 2026, while ING predicts slightly lower growth rates of 1.3% and 1.5% respectively [3]. - For 2027, Morgan Stanley anticipates a growth rate of 1.8% [3]. Unemployment Rate Predictions - The unemployment rate is projected to be 4.6% in 2025 according to Morgan Stanley, while ING estimates it at 4.5% [4]. - For 2026, both institutions predict a slight decrease in the unemployment rate, with Morgan Stanley at 4.4% and ING at 4.5% [4]. Inflation Rate Forecasts - The PCE inflation rate is expected to be 3.1% in 2025 according to Morgan Stanley, while ING predicts it will be 3% [4]. - For 2026, both firms project a decline in inflation, with Morgan Stanley forecasting 2.5% and ING at 2.1% [4]. - The core PCE inflation rate is also expected to decrease, with Morgan Stanley predicting 3% for 2025 and 2.5% for 2026, while ING estimates 3.1% and 2.3% respectively [4]. Federal Funds Rate Expectations - The Federal Funds Rate is projected to be 3.875% in 2025 according to Morgan Stanley, while ING estimates it at 3.6% [4]. - For 2026, Morgan Stanley anticipates a rate of 3.375%, compared to ING's prediction of 3.4% [4].

Group 1 - Wall Street traders are almost certain that the Federal Reserve will announce a 25 basis point rate cut, with expectations that Chairman Powell will signal further cuts to support a weak labor market [1][3] - The S&P 500 index has seen a significant increase in market capitalization, rising by $14 trillion since early April, and is now just 0.1% away from its historical record [3][4] - Historical data supports the bullish sentiment in the stock market, as the S&P 500 index has historically risen after the Fed cuts rates when it is within 1% of its all-time high, with an average return of nearly 15% [4] Group 2 - The implied volatility of the S&P 500 index has decreased, indicating market confidence in the continuation of the index's upward trend, but unexpected factors could still lead to market volatility [5][6] - Analysts predict that if Powell signals a hawkish stance regarding inflation, it could lead to panic in the markets, while a dovish signal would likely result in a positive response from the stock market [5][6] - The most likely outcome is a 25 basis point rate cut, with potential market reactions ranging from a flat close to a 1% increase, depending on Powell's signals regarding future rate cuts [6]