据福克斯新闻报道，佛罗里达州共和党众议员安娜·保利娜·卢纳（Anna Paulina Luna）正式向美国司法 部提交刑事指控动议，指控美联储主席鲍威尔在作证时两度撒谎。根据福克斯新闻数字频道独家获取的 司法部信函，卢纳指控鲍威尔犯有伪证罪。 这场法律行动正值特朗普的保守派盟友持续施压，要求鲍威尔在2026年任期届满前提前下台。卢纳在信 中写道："2025年6月25日，鲍威尔主席就美联储埃克尔斯大楼翻修工程向参议院银行、住房和城市事务 委员会作证时，作出了多项实质性虚假陈述。" 信中具体指控鲍威尔在两个方面提供不实证词：其一是关于埃克尔斯大楼内豪华设施的虚假陈述，其二 是蓄意歪曲大楼维护状况。 卢纳指出："在致白宫行政管理和预算办公室主任拉塞尔·沃特（Russell Vought）的信件中，鲍威尔将项 目成本从19亿美元飙升至25亿美元的变更称为'微小调整'。但国会调查人员查阅的文件显示，该项目无 论在规模还是成本上均存在重大超支。" 而共和党温和派和鲍威尔的支持者则警告，撤换美联储主席将引发更严重的市场动荡。 （文章来源：金十数据） 行业媒体《抵押贷款专业》（Mortgage Professional）报道 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have surged, breaking the $3400 per ounce mark for the first time since June 17, driven by uncertainties surrounding Trump's trade policies and increasing demand for safe-haven assets [2][3] - Trump's announcement of high tariffs on multiple major economies, effective August 1, has contributed to market uncertainty, which is favorable for gold prices [3] - Speculation about an earlier-than-expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and potential changes in its leadership have heightened market anxiety, further supporting gold [3][4] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller's support for a July rate cut is based on rising economic risks and limited inflation impact from tariffs, which has kept the dollar below recent highs, thus supporting precious metals [4] - Market expectations suggest the Fed will remain inactive until September, with rate futures indicating a potential cumulative cut of 50 basis points by year-end [4] - Recent U.S. economic data, including a decline in the Conference Board's leading economic index and an unexpected rise in consumer confidence, may buffer the dollar's decline and influence gold prices [4] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices may face strong resistance in the $3365-$3366 range, and a breakthrough could signal bullish momentum towards the $3400 mark and further test the $3434-$3435 resistance area [4] - On the downside, initial support is seen in the $3325-$3322 range, with a potential deeper correction if prices fall below $3300, targeting the June swing low of $3248-$3247 [5]

美联储理事沃勒上周表态，敦促美联储在下次会议上降息。但沃勒很可能在美联储理事会中遭到同僚的 压倒性反对。 美国银行证券高级经济学家阿迪亚·博哈维（Aditya Bhave）指出："与6月相比，如今美联储多数成员对 9月降息的兴趣不增反减。" 沃勒的孤立处境应当给华尔街交易员敲响警钟——他们单纯因特朗普将任命新美联储主席，就认定明年 必然迎来低利率。鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将于明年5月结束，市场普遍预期新任主席将是主张大幅降 息的"低利率派"。传奇宏观投资者保罗·都铎·琼斯（Paul Tudor Jones）近日接受彭博采访时直言："人们 知道明年短期利率将大幅下调。" 但长期跟踪美联储的分析师及央行前工作人员认为，这种乐观预期脱离现实。美联储的决策机制意味 着，即便换上新主席，特朗普的目标仍将面临苦战。博哈维表示："明年5月后降息一两次尚有可能，但 若要进一步降息，争取联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）支持将困难得多。" 在鲍威尔之后，特朗普还需应对克利夫兰联储主席哈马克，和达拉斯联储主席洛根。 每张票都至关重要，特朗普团队深谙此道，因此将矛头扩大至其他美联储高官。本周特朗普在椭圆形办 公室斥责鲍威尔"糟糕透顶"， ...

历史上一个特别清晰的教训是，当美联储被迫为政府赤字融资时——例如通过将利率维持在过低水平， 其结果必然是更高的通胀和经济损害。 我们曾多次看到这种情况，包括在美国。在第二次世界大战期间及战后数年，美联储受到美国财政部的 压力，不得不限制利率以帮助为战争债务融资。这项政策导致在1940年代末期爆发了两位数的通胀。 伯南克于2006年至2014年担任美联储主席，由乔治·W·布什任命。耶伦接替他担任主席，由奥巴马任 命，并任职至2018年。她还在拜登政府期间担任财政部长。两人均为经济学家。 作为美国联邦储备委员会的前主席，我们（即耶伦和伯南克）根据自身经验和对历史的理解深知，美联 储独立行事的能力对于其有效管理经济至关重要。 近期，一些试图损害这种独立性的行为，包括总统（即特朗普）要求大幅降息以及威胁解雇鲍威尔，这 些都可能对经济造成长期而严重的损害。这些行为不仅会损害鲍威尔本人，还会损害未来所有的美联储 主席，乃至美联储本身的公信力。 美联储在设定利率方面的独立性，并不意味着其缺乏民主问责制。国会已通过法律规定了美联储必须实 现的目标——最大就业和稳定物价，美联储的领导层也会定期向国会委员会汇报实现这些目标的进展 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin, emphasized the need for a review of the Federal Reserve as an institution, particularly regarding its handling of tariffs and inflation effects [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Review - Mnuchin stated that the Federal Reserve should be scrutinized for its actions, particularly its communication regarding tariffs, which he claims have not significantly impacted inflation [1] - He mentioned that there is no current necessity to dismiss Fed Chairman Powell, especially with indications that the Fed may lower interest rates this year [1] Group 2: Political Dynamics - President Trump denied a Wall Street Journal report suggesting that Mnuchin advised against dismissing Powell, asserting that he understands what is beneficial for the market and the country [1] - Trump's recent criticisms of the Federal Reserve have intensified, particularly targeting its $2.5 billion renovation project [2] Group 3: Legal and Administrative Implications - The potential dismissal of Powell before the end of his term could lead to unprecedented legal challenges, possibly reaching the U.S. Supreme Court [2] - OMB Director Russell Vought criticized Powell for mismanagement, citing the cost overruns of the renovation project as an example [2]

Core Viewpoint - Wells Fargo's latest report highlights a concerning recession signal hidden behind seemingly optimistic U.S. economic data, specifically a decline in discretionary service spending, which has only decreased during or immediately following economic recessions over the past 60 years [1] Group 1: Consumer Spending Trends - Discretionary service spending has been revised down significantly from an initial growth estimate of 2.4% to just 0.6% [1] - As of May, service spending has decreased by 0.3% year-over-year, with specific declines in transportation spending by 1.1% and a dramatic drop in air travel spending by 4.7% [1] - Households are delaying car repairs, reducing ride-sharing usage, and cutting back on air travel expenses, indicating financial strain [2] Group 2: Economic Growth and Inflation Insights - Despite stable growth in non-discretionary goods, the report suggests that this growth may be misleading due to preemptive purchases made before tariff increases [2] - Many companies have stockpiled inventory before tariffs took effect, allowing them to temporarily absorb cost pressures without passing them on to consumers [2] - The Federal Reserve is currently divided on economic outlook, with some members advocating for interest rate cuts due to weak employment data, while others believe the economy remains resilient [2]

Group 1 - The steel industry is experiencing a significant price increase in coking coal and coke, driven by macroeconomic narratives and government initiatives to combat "involution" in the sector [1][4] - The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) has emphasized the need to control capacity and eliminate backward production capacity to prevent overcapacity risks in the steel industry [1][2] - Coking coal imports increased by 23.31% month-on-month in June, reaching 9.10842 million tons, although this represents a nearly 8% year-on-year decline [1] Group 2 - The operating rate of coking coal mines has risen to 85.5%, reflecting a recovery in production as safety and environmental checks ease [2] - The market for coking coal remains strong, with a notable increase in inventory levels among independent coking enterprises, which rose by 5.21% to 8.9235 million tons [2] - The sentiment in the market is resilient, with downstream steel and coke enterprises actively replenishing their coal inventories [2][3] Group 3 - Futures market expectations are bullish for both coking coal and coke, with analysts predicting continued price increases due to strong demand and limited supply recovery [3][4] - The first round of price increases for coke has been implemented, and there are expectations for a second round as coking enterprises seek to improve profitability [4][5] - The overall market sentiment remains positive, with speculation and rigid demand providing effective support for coking coal and coke prices [5][6]

Group 1 - Tom Lee, a prominent Wall Street strategist, has been appointed as the chairman of BitMine Immersion Technologies, positioning the company as the "Ethereum version of MicroStrategy" [2] - Lee emphasizes the potential of Ethereum as a trillion-dollar opportunity, driven by institutional adoption and the rise of stablecoins [3][4] - Currently, 30% of Ethereum's network usage comes from stablecoins, with over 60% of tokenized real-world assets built on Ethereum, making it the preferred blockchain infrastructure for Wall Street [3] Group 2 - BitMine recently completed a PIPE transaction, raising $250 million by selling 55 million shares at approximately $4.50 each, primarily to purchase Ethereum [4] - The PIPE transaction increased the total shares outstanding to at least 61 million, leading to a market valuation that may exceed several billion dollars, indicating investors are paying a premium for Ethereum exposure [4] Group 3 - Lee defends the high valuations of AI leaders like Nvidia, arguing that their importance in the AI ecosystem justifies their premium pricing, despite concerns over market concentration [5] - He points out that the average P/E ratio of equal-weighted indices is lower than pre-pandemic levels, suggesting that companies with sustainable profit growth should command higher valuations [6] Group 4 - Lee's strategy reflects a broader shift among institutional investors towards recognizing the profitability of technological infrastructure, including cryptocurrencies [7] - The focus is on identifying infrastructure investment opportunities that benefit from large-scale capital expenditure trends, such as Nvidia for AI computing and Ethereum for financial tokenization [7]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America’s chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett indicates that nearly all proprietary trading signals have issued sell signals, despite a record bullish reversal among fund managers following three months of panic selling [1] Group 1: Sell Signals - The cash rule from Bank of America’s fund manager survey shows that cash as a percentage of assets under management (AUM) is at 3.9%, reaching sell signal levels. Historically, similar sell signals have led to an average decline of 2% in the S&P 500 index [2] - The global breadth rule indicates that 64% of MSCI global stock index components are trading above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, down from 80% last week, but not yet at the 88% sell signal threshold [2] - The global fund flow trading rule shows that inflows into global stocks/high-yield bonds account for 0.9% of AUM over the past four weeks, down from 1.0% last week, triggering a sell signal [2] Group 2: Market Conditions - Hartnett suggests that those looking for sell triggers should focus on the bond market rather than the stock market, emphasizing that "bears watch bonds, bulls watch stocks" [2] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield remains at a critical level, having briefly surpassed 5% during a mini-panic when the market speculated on Trump firing Powell. However, as long as yields do not reach new highs and the MOVE index stays around 80, the market maintains a "risk-on" status [2][3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - If long-term Treasury yields reach new highs and the MOVE index exceeds 100, Hartnett will shift to a "risk-off" stance [3] - The current market breadth is collapsing, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 to S&P 500 ratio at a 22-year low, the Russell 2000 to S&P 500 ratio near a 25-year low, and the value to growth stock ratio at a 30-year low, indicating a potential economic slowdown or stock market bubble [3] Group 4: Historical Context - Hartnett draws parallels between the current situation and the early 1970s, referencing Nixon's economic policies and the Fed's rate cuts, which contributed to a boom-bust cycle. He notes that after initial market sell-offs, the S&P 500 rose 11% a year later, suggesting that history may repeat itself if Powell is removed [4]

Group 1 - Berkshire Hathaway's stock has underperformed since Warren Buffett announced his retirement plans, with a decline of over 12% since May 3, reducing year-to-date gains to 4.5%, lagging behind the S&P 500's 7% increase [2] - The B-class shares of Berkshire Hathaway are on track to record their longest monthly losing streak since June 2022 if they close down in July, marking a significant shift after a record 573 days above the 200-day moving average [3] - Buffett has lowered expectations for Berkshire's performance, suggesting it will only slightly outperform the average of U.S. companies due to the large cash reserves making significant investment impacts unlikely [3] Group 2 - Despite recent challenges, Buffett's long-term performance record remains exceptional, with Berkshire's average annual return being double that of the S&P 500 since the 1960s, and a total return of 5,502,284% from 1964 to 2024 [3]