Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in gold prices over the past year lacks a statistically valid explanation, making future predictions uncertain [1]. Group 1: Theories Explaining Gold Price Movements - **Inflation Hedge**: The common belief is that gold serves as a hedge against inflation, with prices rising during inflationary periods. However, the correlation between CPI changes and gold price movements is only 1.1%, indicating a weak predictive power [2][4]. - **Expected Inflation Hedge**: Some argue that gold reacts to expected future inflation rather than actual inflation. Yet, analysis using Cleveland Fed's inflation expectations shows no significant correlation with gold prices, even weaker than actual CPI changes [5][6]. - **Geopolitical Risk**: Another theory posits that gold prices rise with increased geopolitical risks. However, the geopolitical risk index only explains 0.1% of gold price changes, indicating a negligible relationship [7][8]. - **Economic Policy Risk**: The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) was also tested, revealing that it explains only 0.9% of gold price changes, further supporting the lack of correlation [9]. - **Chinese Gold Purchases**: The theory linking gold's bull market to increased gold purchases by the Chinese central bank is prevalent, but the correlation is weak, with an R-squared value of only 0.6% [10]. - **Gold ETF Net Inflows**: The highest correlation with gold prices is found in the net inflows of physical gold ETFs. However, even this correlation lacks statistical significance at the 95% confidence level [11]. Group 2: Challenges in Timing the Gold Market - None of the discussed theories provide a solid synchronous or leading indicator for gold price fluctuations, complicating market timing strategies [12]. - Historical data shows that various gold market timing strategies have underperformed the buy-and-hold strategy by an average of 4.0 percentage points annually since the mid-1980s [12].

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 华尔街最大型银行将于本周陆续公布第四季度财报，几乎所有业务领域，包括从投行业务、人才争夺到 科技投入，竞争都在加剧。 其中，摩根大通(JPM.N)将于周二美股盘前率先披露业绩，美国银行(BAC.N)与花旗集团(C.N)周三盘前 跟进，高盛(GS.N)和摩根士丹利(MS.N)将在周四盘前公布。 竞争压力正在影响投资者、分析师和高管对新一年的判断。以尖锐提问闻名的富国银行资深分析师迈克 ·梅奥（Mike Mayo）在采访中表示，各大银行正展开近十年来最激烈的争夺，以抢占新业务。 "动物精神已被释放。"梅奥说，并补充称，如今的竞争"是自全球金融危机前以来最猛烈的"，银行正积 极进攻财务咨询、投行、资产管理乃至零售业务等多个领域。财报周即将开始，但一些积极信号已开始 浮现，尤其体现在薪酬方面。 薪酬咨询机构Johnson Associates创始人艾伦·约翰逊（Alan Johnson）表示，从已公布薪酬安排的机构内 部反馈来看，今年情况强劲。"银行业务和交易业务，今年奖金最大赢家，这是我感受到的趋势。"他 说。投行业务的薪酬增幅甚至超出他的预测，同比最高增至 ...

1月13日（周二）21:30，美国将公布12月消费者价格指数（CPI）。预测显示，美国通胀将小幅走高，主要因商品价格上涨和"技术性抬升"所致。 继11月意外走弱后，经济学家预计12月物价涨幅加快，反映关税压力仍在发酵，不过有望在2026年下半年缓解。同时，特朗普关税案裁决结果、鲍威尔遭司 法部调查及上周五的非农数据，也在共同塑造通胀前景和美联储政策路径，使周二公布的数据格外敏感。 市场预期：12月CPI将稍微升温 数据显示，市场预计美国12月CPI环比上涨0.3%、同比上涨2.7%；核心CPI预计环比涨0.3%、同比涨2.7%。分析师提醒，由于政府停摆导致10月数据缺失， 11月部分商品及租金价格被人为压低，使12月可能出现"技术性抬升"。 政府停摆导致的统计扭曲尚未消散。劳工统计局在11月和12月数据中使用假设填补租金与部分价格缺口，令住房成本、核心商品增速偏离常态。分析师普遍 认为，在正式数据修正前，每月CPI波动都要谨慎解读。 牛津经济研究院的伯纳德·亚罗斯（Bernard Yaros）预计，12月CPI环比可能达到0.4%，高于共识，并指出："要到年中才能真正看到趋势。" 关税仍在推高食品、服装及汽车 ...

苹果(AAPL.O)与谷歌达成一项多年协议，今年晚些时候将把谷歌的Gemini模型用于升级后的Siri。这一 举动深化了两大科技巨头在人工智能时代的合作，也提升了Alphabet(GOOGL.O)在与OpenAI竞争中的 地位。 "考虑到谷歌还拥有Android和Chrome，这似乎让它掌握了不合理的过大权力，"特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克 （Elon Musk）在X平台发文称。 马斯克创立了自己的AI公司xAI，通过打造基础模型、投入数十亿美元建设大型基础设施，试图与行业 其他领先者竞争。 周一的合作预计将引发关于OpenAI与苹果关系的更多疑问。作为对Gemini 3的回应，有报道称OpenAI 首席执行官山姆·奥尔特曼（Sam Altman）在去年年底发出了"红色警报"，要求团队加速研发。 Equisights Research首席执行官帕斯·塔尔萨尼亚（Parth Talsania）表示： "苹果决定采用谷歌的Gemini模型，将OpenAI推到了更偏辅助的角色，ChatGPT将继续用于 复杂问题的主动调用，而不是成为默认的智能底层。" 谷歌一直在全力追赶OpenAI早期的领先优势，加码前沿模型，以及图像 ...

Group 1 - The Trump administration has warned that any country conducting business with Iran will face a 25% tariff, indicating a potential escalation in trade tensions [2][8] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have intensified following a criminal investigation into Chairman Powell, leading to market volatility [2][7] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.17% and the S&P 500 increasing by 0.16%, while notable declines were seen in Citigroup [3] Group 2 - The A-share market experienced significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.09% and trading volume surpassing 3.6 trillion yuan, marking a new historical record [4] - The AI application sector saw a collective surge, contributing to the overall positive performance of the market, while sectors like insurance and oil & gas faced declines [4] - The Hang Seng Index closed up 1.44%, driven by strong performances in tech and AI-related stocks, with Alibaba and Kuaishou seeing notable increases [3]

在美国检察官对美联储主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查后，引发了市场对美联储独立性的担忧，黄金持续刷新历史新高 周一美盘，黄金一度涨超2%，并将历史记录刷新至4620美元上方，白银一度暴涨超7%。截止发稿前，二者均有所回落。 资产管理公司Carmignac的投资委员会成员Kevin Thozet表示，风险在于白宫与美联储之间在未来几个季度可能会"不再手下留情"。鲍威尔上周日表示，美联 储收到了大陪审团的传票以及司法部关于刑事起诉的威胁，这与他在国会就央行总部25亿美元翻新工程的证词有关。 投资者表示，美元和黄金的走势反映出一种风险，即由于政治压力，美国政策利率可能会被压低至低于本应有的水平，从而可能导致长期通胀上升和货币政 策的不确定性。 Fidelity International的基金经理Mike Riddell说："我们以前经历过这种情况——对美联储的政治压力意味着美元走弱、美国长期国债收益率走高以及通胀预 期上升。" 但市场波动的规模相对较小，许多投资者仍押注利率制定者将保持独立。高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius在伦敦的一次会议上表示："我的预期依然是，委员 会将继续根据其授权和经济数据做出决定。" 黄金和 ...

如果特朗普选择沃勒，那么当席位空缺时，特朗普还可以安排另一位人选进入美联储理事会，并对美联 储进行更强的控制。 然而，在上周日美国司法部对鲍威尔进行刑事调查后，但对于任何一位候选人来说，接下来的路不会平 坦。下一任美联储主席的确认将笼罩在这一时刻的阴影之下：无论人选是谁，都将面临一场确认听证 会，届时参议员以及市场都会提出一个之前并不存在的问题：此人是否愿意像鲍威尔那样，为了履行职 责而冒着被起诉的风险？ 消息人士透露，这将是第四次也是最后一次面试接替美联储主席鲍威尔的候选人。鲍威尔的主席任期将 于5月15日结束。他于2017年由特朗普提名执掌美联储，并于2018年获得确认。 目前，除了里德尔之外，最终入围名单还包括前美联储理事凯文·沃什、国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞 特以及美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒。美联储理事鲍曼已不再是该职位的候选人。 特朗普表示，他将在1月做出最终选择。如果特朗普挑选的人选目前并非美联储理事会成员，那么此人 必须先进入美联储理事会。 此前，由特朗普提名的美联储理事米兰的任期将于1月31日届满，这将为特朗普提供所需的空缺名额。 米兰于去年9月宣誓就职，填补了阿德里亚娜·库格勒辞职后留下的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has publicly criticized the government for pressuring the Fed to lower interest rates through threats of criminal investigation, marking a significant shift in his typically cautious communication style [1][3]. Group 1: Powell's Response and Actions - Powell's video statement indicates he will not allow the situation to unfold quietly, emphasizing the importance of the Fed's independence in setting interest rates based on public interest rather than presidential preferences [1][2]. - The unprecedented nature of a criminal investigation against a sitting Fed chairman reflects a serious challenge to the Fed's operational independence [1][3]. - Powell has engaged top legal counsel as a precautionary measure, indicating his commitment to maintaining the Fed's integrity amid external pressures [3][5]. Group 2: Government and Political Reactions - The White House has shifted responsibility for the investigation to the Justice Department, with the Attorney General prioritizing investigations into the misuse of taxpayer funds [2][5]. - President Trump has publicly distanced himself from the investigation, claiming ignorance of the subpoena and asserting that it is unrelated to the Fed's interest rate decisions [2][4]. - Some of Trump's allies believe the pressure may force Powell to resign before the end of his term, potentially allowing Trump to fill another vacancy on the Fed's board [2][3]. Group 3: Implications for the Federal Reserve - The investigation centers on Powell's testimony regarding a $2.5 billion renovation project, which some officials allege involved misrepresentation of costs, suggesting a deeper motive related to the Fed's independence [5][6]. - Analysts express concern that without Powell as a buffer, Trump may redirect his frustrations towards other members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [5][6]. - The potential for Powell's dismissal raises questions about the independence of future Fed chairs, as any successor may face similar pressures and scrutiny [6].

伊朗方面于周一表示，该国正与美国保持沟通渠道畅通。与此同时，美国总统特朗普正在考量如何回应 伊朗国内的抗议活动镇压事件——此次抗议是自1979年伊斯兰革命以来，对伊朗神职人员统治构成的最 严峻挑战之一。 他还指出，两国仍然通过瑞士这一传统斡旋国维持着沟通。 "美方提及了一些议题，也提出了若干构想，总体而言……伊朗伊斯兰共和国是一个从未远离谈判桌的 国家。"但他补充道，美方传递的"矛盾信号"显示出其缺乏诚意，难以令人信服。 阿拉格齐在向驻德黑兰的外国使节通报情况时重申，伊朗伊斯兰共和国已做好应战准备，但同时也对对 话持开放态度。 维权组织：抗议相关死亡人数超500人 总部位于美国的人权组织伊朗人权活动通讯社（HRANA）表示，自去年12月28日抗议爆发以来，经核 实已有490名抗议者与48名安全部队人员死亡，超过10600人遭到逮捕。 伊朗官方尚未公布相关伤亡数据，且路透社也无法独立核实该组织统计的数字。自上周四起，伊朗实施 的断网措施，进一步阻碍了相关信息的对外传播。 特朗普于上周日称，伊朗已主动提出就核计划问题进行谈判。去年6月，以色列与美国曾在一场为期12 天的战争中轰炸了伊朗的核设施。 "伊朗希望谈判， ...

Group 1 - The market sentiment of "selling America" is spreading due to escalating attacks from the Trump administration on the Federal Reserve, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [1][2] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by 0.3%, marking its largest decline since December 23 of the previous year, while S&P 500 futures dropped by 0.7% [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.20%, potentially reaching its highest closing price since September of the previous year [1] Group 2 - Strategists warn that if tensions continue to escalate, the sell-off may intensify, with Morgan Stanley highlighting the risk of a steepening U.S. Treasury yield curve [2] - UBS's chief strategist noted that now is not the time for markets to worry about the Fed's independence, as inflation in the U.S. may rise in the coming months [2] - The debate centers on the extent to which the President can influence national interest rate policy, which has traditionally been insulated from political interference [2] Group 3 - The news of the Fed receiving a subpoena may further diminish the attractiveness of U.S. assets, as noted by a strategist from Invesco [3] - Concerns about the Fed's independence could lead macro traders to increase short positions on the dollar [3] - The pressure to "sell America" is unlikely to dissipate as trading unfolds into 2026 [4] Group 4 - Some analysts maintain a cautious outlook, suggesting that any pullback could present a buying opportunity due to the dollar's strong reserve currency status and the liquidity of U.S. Treasuries [4] - The investigation facing Powell appears more like a smokescreen than a real threat, but its long-term implications could be significant [4]