Group 1 - The Republican conservatives ended a two-day blockade on cryptocurrency legislation, paving the way for a vote on a series of bills supported by Trump [1] - The House passed the procedural steps needed to advance the cryptocurrency legislation with a vote of 217 in favor and 212 against, including a stablecoin bill previously passed by the Senate [1] - House Speaker Mike Johnson indicated that a bill prohibiting the Federal Reserve from issuing a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) would be included in the defense authorization bill later this year to persuade opponents to advance the stablecoin bill [1] Group 2 - A vote on the Senate-passed stablecoin bill, known as the GENIUS Act, is expected on Thursday, which sets regulatory rules for dollar-backed stablecoins [2] - The passage of the GENIUS Act in the House would mark the first major cryptocurrency legislation passed by Congress, representing a significant lobbying victory for the cryptocurrency industry [2] - The vote on the CLARITY Act, which will clarify whether assets are regulated by the SEC or the CFTC, may be delayed until next week [2]

今年早些时候，一位前美联储经济学家发布了一份关于该央行总部翻新成本飙升的报告，当时鲜有人关 注。数月后，这份不起眼的报告竟成了特朗普向美联储主席鲍威尔施压的核心武器——甚至可能成为解 雇他的理由。 特朗普可能没有法律权力因鲍威尔不降息而解雇他，但他的顾问们正抓住这个25亿美元的建筑项目大做 文章：将其塑造成政府浪费的具体案例，以此削弱鲍威尔履职所需的公众信任。 周三，特朗普称"极不可能"解雇鲍威尔，"除非他因欺诈不得不离职"。 白宫揪住美联储总部翻新项目的成本超支和大理石装修不放，并非因为对其建筑或预算有法律管辖权， 而是希望借此削弱公众对鲍威尔的信任、构建合法解雇他的理由，或两者兼具。 特朗普在第一任期和今年春天都曾提出解雇鲍威尔的想法，但两次都因顾问提醒"可能在法庭和金融市 场栽跟头"而放弃。 这促使一群特朗普的支持者将攻击矛头对准这个已进行多年的建筑项目，把它当作羞辱鲍威尔（希望他 主动辞职）或尝试让法院认可解雇行为的"武器"。 美联储相关法律规定，只有凭借"正当理由"（如渎职或失职）才能解雇政策制定者。法律专家质疑特朗 普政府是否有足够依据让法院批准解雇鲍威尔，并认为真正的策略可能是通过足够的政治打击 ...

Group 1: Legislative Developments - The U.S. House of Representatives successfully passed a key procedural vote for multiple cryptocurrency-related bills, marking a significant victory for the digital asset industry, aided by Trump's intervention [1] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission extended the time for visiting professionals to provide virtual asset services from 30 days to 45 days, facilitating more flexible operations in the region [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Performance - Despite a favorable market environment, cryptocurrency spot trading volume fell by 22% in Q2 2025, from $4.6 trillion in Q1 to $3.6 trillion, primarily due to decreased altcoin trading activity and liquidity [2] - The total trading volume for cryptocurrency derivatives in Q2 was $20.2 trillion, only slightly down by 3.6%, indicating resilience in this segment amid broader market adjustments [2] - Bitcoin's price momentum has paused after breaking $120,000, with a potential local bottom at $114,000, suggesting that a pullback to around $110,000 could solidify the current bullish trend [3] Group 3: Innovations and Initiatives - French lawmakers proposed a pilot program to use surplus nuclear power for Bitcoin mining, potentially generating annual revenues of $100 million to $150 million, while also addressing maintenance costs and energy waste [4] - Citigroup is exploring the issuance of a stablecoin for cross-border payments, joining other major banks in considering stablecoin projects [8] - Bank of America is preparing to launch a stablecoin, awaiting legal clarity, indicating a cautious approach to entering the cryptocurrency space [9] Group 4: Investment Strategies and Market Sentiment - ARK Invest sold $8.7 million worth of Bitcoin ETF shares, possibly to capitalize on recent market momentum and reduce risk exposure ahead of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release [10] - The founder of LD Capital expressed a cautious stance in the current market, opting to wait for clearer conditions before making further moves, while maintaining a long-term bullish outlook on the crypto market [12] - Momentum 6's partner indicated that altcoins may experience a strong rally in the next 1 to 2 months, with Bitcoin potentially targeting $150,000, suggesting a favorable environment for market rotation [13] Group 5: Regulatory Concerns - UK lawmakers are calling for a ban on cryptocurrency political donations due to concerns over traceability and potential foreign interference, highlighting the need for updated legislation [6]

特朗普对鲍威尔持续施压，再次搅动市场，并引发一个关键问题：若这位总统真的解雇身处困境的美联 储主席，后续将发生什么？ 此举在美国史上尚无先例，几乎必定会引发一场牵动华盛顿和华尔街的标志性诉讼，最终由美国最高法 院裁决。 最高法院对禁令的裁决很可能成为终局判决。虽然败诉方可继续诉讼，但大法官们后续自我推翻的可能 性微乎其微。 若案件诉至最高法院，可能如何裁决？ 最高法院5月的判决显示，特朗普不能无故解雇鲍威尔。在允许特朗普无需理由解雇其他两家机构官员 时，多数大法官明确表示该判决不意味着总统对美联储拥有类似权力。法院称美联储是"结构独特、准 私人的实体"。 不过裁决仍保留以"正当理由"解雇鲍威尔的可能性。若案件诉至最高法院，特朗普的"胜诉纪录"可能使 其占据优势。保守派占绝对多数的最高法院屡次拒绝质疑特朗普的判断，去年授予总统广泛刑事豁免 权，今年又批准多项请求允许其面临法律挑战的政策生效。 最新风波爆发于7月16日，有报道称特朗普可能很快对鲍威尔采取行动。这位美联储主席因未听从降息 呼吁而长期处于总统的瞄准镜下。特朗普随后否认报道，称鲍威尔被撤换"极不可能，除非他因欺诈必 须离职"。 这指向美联储总部装修费用 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence, as expressed by major bank CEOs in response to President Trump's discussions about potentially firing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell [2][4] - CEOs from Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citigroup publicly defended the Fed's independence, stating it is crucial for the U.S. economy and financial markets [2][3] - Concerns were raised that political pressure on the Fed could undermine its credibility and disrupt global markets, particularly affecting the status of U.S. Treasury securities and the dollar [4] Group 2 - The total assets of the banks led by the mentioned CEOs exceed $12 trillion, highlighting their significant influence in the financial sector [3] - Trump indicated he might have "justifiable reasons" to dismiss Powell, citing excessive spending on renovation projects, but later stated he does not plan to take any action [4] - Bank of America CEO Moynihan noted that the stability of the Fed is critical not only for the U.S. but also for the global economy, given the size of the U.S. economy and its debt [4]

美国企业6月至7月初向美联储反映，在特朗普政府的经济政策开始显现影响之际，移民劳工流失加剧了其在快速变化的贸易政策 下的困境。 自1月份以来，报告经济增长的地区数量下降，报告经济收缩的地区数量增加。 最新的美联储《褐皮书》基于12家地区联储截至7月7日的商业和社区调研、访谈及观察，该报告指出："多个行业的受访者预计未 来几个月成本压力将持续高企，这增加了消费者价格在夏末开始更快上涨的可能性。" 所有地区均报告了价格上涨，企业经历了"与关税相关的适度至明显的投入成本压力"。 许多企业提到，物价已上涨或即将上涨， 部分企业出现业务放缓。仅有少数企业提及受益，包括制造业潜在回流。 美联储当地时间周三最新发布的褐皮书显示，近几周经济活动有所回升，但前景"中性偏悲观"，企业称进口关税提高正推高物 价。 "这比上一份报告有所改善，在上一份报告中，有一半地区的经济活动至少略有下降，"报告称。"不确定性仍然很高，导致企业持 续保持谨慎。" 自去年12月以来，美联储政策制定者将政策利率维持在4.25%-4.50%区间，外界普遍预计其至少在9月前不会调整，以观察经济对 贸易及其他政策变化的反应。 LPL Financial首席经 ...

Group 1 - The market reacted negatively to reports that President Trump was considering replacing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with declines in U.S. stocks, the dollar, and long-term Treasury bonds, while short-term bonds rose due to increased rate cut expectations [1] - After Trump's statement denying any plans to replace Powell, the market showed signs of recovery, but the initial reaction indicated significant uncertainty and concern among investors [1] - Key data reflected market panic, with the two-year Treasury yield dropping by 8 basis points and the ten-year yield falling by 5 basis points, while the Bloomberg dollar spot index shifted from a 0.2% gain to a 0.7% loss [1] Group 2 - Analysts believe that replacing Powell would not be a "magic bullet" for economic issues, highlighting the importance of the successor's influence on the Federal Reserve's decision-making [4] - Predictions suggest that if Powell were to be replaced, the trade-weighted dollar could drop by 3%-4% within 24 hours, and the fixed income market could see a sell-off of 30-40 basis points [4] - Concerns were raised about the precedent set by threatening to dismiss the Federal Reserve Chairman, indicating a dangerous signal of breaking norms to achieve objectives [4] Group 3 - Trump's ongoing criticism of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies and recent comments about the rising costs of renovations at the Fed's headquarters suggest potential justifications for his desire to remove Powell [4] - Market confidence could decline, leading to more rate cut expectations, a weaker dollar, and increased term premiums if Powell's replacement were to occur [4] - Experienced traders familiar with "Trump market dynamics" view the situation as a typical day in the market, indicating a level of desensitization to such political maneuvers [4][5]

当地时间周二，美国总统特朗普向一群众议院共和党人询问他是否应该解雇美联储主席鲍威尔。据多位知情人士透露，在场人士对此表示赞同，其中一些人 表示，特朗普暗示他将采取行动。 消息公布后，现货黄金短线走高近20美元。美元指数短线下挫25点。非美货币普涨，欧元兑美元短线拉升40点，英镑兑美元短线拉升逾30点，美元兑日元短 线下挫超40点。 消息人士告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻，一些众议院金融服务委员会的成员计划在周三晚间与鲍威尔会面。其中一位消息人士称，一些成员希望强调他所担任 角色的独立性。 特朗普对鲍威尔的不满，以及他认为美联储降息速度不够快的观点，是特朗普近几周来经常讨论的话题。特朗普给鲍威尔起了个绰号——"太迟先生"，鲍威 尔最初正是由特朗普提拔为美联储主席的。 特朗普是在周二晚间于椭圆形办公室向共和党众议员发表上述言论的，此前这些议员阻止了一项推进加密货币立法的程序性投票，而这项立法是特朗普所支 持的。 总统解雇美联储主席的提议在法律上尚未经过检验——联邦法律规定，美联储主席只能"因故"被解雇。此举可能会对金融市场产生严重的负面影响。 政府内部消息人士告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻（CBS News），总统一直在公开 ...

美国6月批发通胀出现降温，旅游相关服务成本的急剧下降抵消了商品价格的上涨。这一意外放缓可能 预示着通胀压力正在积聚，但尚未全面爆发。 美国劳工统计局周三公布的数据显示，生产者价格指数（PPI）环比持平，5月数据上修为增长0.3%。 这是自去年9月以来最温和的年度涨幅，同比上升2.3%。剔除食品、能源和贸易服务后的核心PPI同样 持平，同比上涨2.5%，创下2023年底以来最小增幅。 这份报告与稍早公布的6月消费者价格指数（CPI）形成微妙对比。虽然当前通胀整体温和，但更高关 税已开始渗透至家居用品、电器和娱乐商品等多个领域。多数经济学家预测，随着更多企业试图转嫁贸 易成本，通胀压力将逐步累积。 如同CPI数据所示，PPI也显现出关税相关通胀迹象。耐用品成本连续两月显著上涨，创三年来的最大累 计涨幅。 生产链上游价格同样值得警惕。中间需求的加工商品成本微升，未加工商品价格四个月来首次上涨。这 些早期信号暗示，通胀压力可能正在生产管道中悄然积累。 （文章来源：金十数据） 服务成本成为抑制通胀的关键因素，环比下降0.1%。劳工统计局指出，超过一半的降幅源自旅行住宿 服务价格暴跌4.1%，航空客运服务价格更骤降2.7 ...

这次提出的1.98万亿欧元预算，与上一个预算周期（2021年至2027年）的1.2万亿欧元（相当于欧盟产出 的1%）相比，有了显著增长。这笔庞大的预算金额可能会遭到一些欧盟成员国的反对，这些国家本身 就面临预算问题，并将主要通过国家出资来承担大部分资金。 欧盟近日提出一项接近2万亿欧元（约合2.3万亿美元）的七年预算计划，旨在应对从全球经济竞争加剧 到国防需求增长等一系列挑战。 据匿名知情人士透露，该计划经过周二深夜至周三凌晨的紧张谈判后达成，将于2028年启动。 长期以来，关于欧盟预算的辩论一直充满争议，因为欧盟需要在农业和对较贫穷成员国的区域资助等相 互竞争的需求之间进行权衡。 今年的提案将指导欧盟在2028年至2034年期间的支出重点。鉴于欧盟旨在加强其国防能力并提高竞争 力，同时面临他国日益激烈的经济竞争，此次提案显得尤为敏感。 前欧洲央行行长马里奥·德拉吉（Mario Draghi）去年发布的一份报告曾警告，欧盟正面临每年8000亿欧 元的投资缺口。 当前的长期预算支持约50个欧盟基金，涵盖从科研到能源项目等领域。其资金主要来源于成员国的出 资，其中经济较富裕的国家是共同基金的净贡献者。 （文章来源 ...