据一位不愿具名的知情人士透露，在美国特朗普政府大幅升级对美联储的施压行动后，全球央行官员正 着手起草一份联合声明，以此表达对美联储主席鲍威尔的声援。 该知情人士表示，这份联合声明预计将以国际清算银行的名义发布，且向所有央行开放签署通道。受时 区差异影响，各国央行行长需要时间磋商声明措辞，文件最早可能于周二正式发布。 记者联系国际清算银行寻求置评时，该机构暂未作出回应。 加拿大央行行长蒂夫・麦克勒姆（Tiff Macklem）于周一发表声明，对鲍威尔表达"全力支持"，并称鲍 威尔"展现了公共服务领域的最高职业水准"。 "鲍威尔主席在艰难的环境中履职出色，引领美联储基于实证而非政治因素制定货币政策。"麦克勒姆在 发送给彭博社的电子邮件声明中写道。 其他多国央行行长——包括欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜・拉加德（Christine Lagarde）在内——也多次强 调货币政策独立性的重要性，并对鲍威尔的工作表示支持与赞赏。 美国总统特朗普一再呼吁美联储大幅降息，称美联储应采取行动提高住房可负担性，并降低政府的借贷 成本。在上周日接受美国全国广播公司新闻频道采访时，特朗普否认自己知晓司法部对美联储的调查一 事。 白宫新闻秘书 ...

德邦基金旗下主动权益产品"德邦稳盈增长灵活配置混合型基金"近日成为市场关注焦点，部分渠道流传 该基金在1月12日单日"吸金"约120亿元的说法，引发投资者和行业讨论。 针对这一传播甚广的数据，德邦基金于1月13日公开回应称，公司并未对外披露旗下基金的盘中规模数 据，相关规模信息属于非公开内容需待日终清算后才能确认，并应以基金定期报告或官方公布渠道为 准，这与市场上流传的数字不符。 业内人士指出，由于公募基金运作和规模确认须等日终清算后数据，盘中估值、第三方平台统计的"实 时规模"并非正式数据来源，容易被投资者误解为实际资金流入情况。 德邦基金的限购举措，一方面是对投资者热情的应对，另一方面也体现出在市场热点推动下，规模短期 内快速扩张可能对基金操作带来的潜在影响。 基金发行与申购规则本就有明确规定，对于规模骤升可能导致的资产配置调整时滞和操作困难，基金管 理人有权在合同条款范围内调整大额申购限额，以避免新资金对持有人成果产生不利影响。 这类调整并不意味着规模数据本身已被官方确认，而是公司基于市场动态的策略性安排。 与此同时，德邦稳盈增长在市场热度大增的背景下宣布实施大额申购限额调整，以保护现有持有人利 益、维 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 因此前政府停摆导致的人为低通胀数据得到修正，美国2025年年末的消费者价格指数（CPI）可能会加 速上升，这将进一步巩固美联储本月维持利率不变的预期。 长达43天的政府停摆阻碍了去年10月份的价格采集工作，导致美国劳工统计局（BLS）不得不采用"结 转法"（carry-forward method）来估算数据（尤其是租金）以编制去年11月的CPI报告。虽然该月的价格 数据最终得以采集，但这主要发生在下半月，当时零售商正在提供假日季折扣。 这种数据扭曲主要体现在租金指标和商品价格上。在预期消费者通胀回升之前，上周发布的非农数据显 示，尽管就业增长温和，但12月失业率有所下降。 道明证券美国首席宏观策略师Oscar Munoz表示："受数据采集问题影响，我们预计CPI报告将显示出显 著的回补效应，这归因于政府停摆。不过，我们不会看到消费者价格的完全逆转，因为租金方面的回补 要等到2026年4月的报告才会体现。" 经济学家预计价格将加速上涨，尤其是新车、家具和服装等商品，尽管租金方面的疲软倾向可能会持 续。美国劳工统计局使用6个月的面板数据来计算租金和业主等 ...

日本首相高市早苗（Sanae Takaichi）可能很快宣布提前大选的猜测升温，推动日本股市延续涨势至历史新高，日元与日本国债则大幅下挫。 当前高市的支持率居高不下，大选若举行有望巩固其执政权威，并重燃自她去年10月上任以来推动股市上涨、国债下跌及日元走弱的"高市交易"行情。 周二午后，日元兑美元汇率下跌0.5%，触及2024年7月以来的最低水平；日经225指数收盘上涨1609.27点，涨幅3.10%，报53549.16点，创历史新高；日本30 年期国债收益率飙升12个基点，至3.52%。 日元走弱也利好日本出口企业，丰田汽车株式会社股价上涨逾7%，日立株式会社上涨3.8%。 "我们预计短期内，包括能源、太空相关概念股以及对外汇高度敏感的股票在内的'高市概念股'将大幅上涨。"花旗研究分析师Ryota Sakagami与Keishi Ueda 在报告中写道。 不过，两位分析师警告称，由于自民党内部对大选的看法存在分歧，"高市交易"的复苏可能是短暂的。他们表示，日元进一步走弱还可能"引发对通胀与经 济恶化的担忧"，进而在后续拖累股市。 日元的持续走弱已成为日本国内一个高度敏感的政治议题，其导致食品与能源价格上涨， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are benefiting significantly from ongoing geopolitical turmoil, with the World Gold Council (WGC) indicating that gold is not yet in an extreme overbought state until it surpasses $4,770 per ounce [1] - Gold prices have returned to an upward trend after a challenging start to the year, overcoming early headwinds such as tax loss selling and portfolio rebalancing [1] - The WGC analysts noted that frequent geopolitical shocks are increasing risk premiums, which is favorable for gold investments [1] Group 2 - Key economic data for the gold market includes the upcoming U.S. December CPI data, which may show a temporary rise, with core CPI expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous 0.2% [1] - In Europe, the UK’s November GDP is expected to show stagnation, while Germany's GDP may see a slight growth of 0.3% after two years of contraction [1] - China's December gold export data is anticipated to demonstrate resilience, potentially supporting trade balance and the renminbi exchange rate [1] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold has only faced minor setbacks and has maintained support at the short-term 13-day moving average, currently at $4,447 per ounce [2] - The next resistance level for gold is at $4,600 per ounce, with a typical overbought limit slightly below this at $4,585 [2] - If gold prices fall below $4,447 and subsequently $4,408, it would ease short-term upward momentum, but support is expected at $4,345 and within the $4,275 to $4,265 range [2]

Core Insights - The upcoming December CPI data is expected to show persistent inflation pressures, with overall CPI projected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, while core CPI is also expected to increase by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year [1][4] Group 1: Economic Context - The Cleveland Fed's Nowcast model predicts a slightly lower core CPI growth of 0.22%, but the mainstream view on Wall Street suggests inflation has not significantly cooled [4] - The government shutdown last year has complicated data interpretation, as some data collection was disrupted, leading to potential upward bias in December's data due to comparisons with earlier prices [5] - November data may have been artificially depressed due to early holiday promotions, with expectations of a mechanical rebound in December core prices as these effects fade [6] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Market expectations indicate a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in January, supported by stable labor market indicators [7] - The absence of a sharp deterioration in the labor market suggests the Fed is unlikely to rush into rate cuts while inflation remains close to 3% [7] - Political pressures may also influence the Fed's cautious stance, as there are concerns about potential investigations into Fed Chair Powell by the Trump administration [7] Group 3: Long-term Inflation Outlook - Companies are planning to pass on tariff-related cost increases to consumers starting in early 2026, which could trigger a new wave of price increases [8] - Shelter inflation remains the largest component of CPI, and if it does not decrease as expected, it will continue to support high core inflation levels [8] Group 4: Market Reactions - Despite potential inflation data being slightly above expectations, the investment community's reaction has been relatively muted, with a prevailing sentiment of a "soft landing" for the economy [9] - The December CPI report is likely to confirm the challenges of achieving the final stages of inflation reduction, with various factors contributing to the Fed's patience in resuming rate cuts, potentially delaying until mid-2026 [9]

在周一播出的CNBC采访中，里德尔表示，数月以来他一直在反复提及希望利率降至3%的观点。他于 周一再次表态支持这一举措，该操作将使借贷成本较当前水平至少下降50个基点（即0.5个百分点）。 美联储官员在去年12月降息25个基点后，当前联邦基金利率目标区间处于3.5%—3.75%。 "我认为美联储确实有一些政策操作空间。"里德尔称，"过去这么多个月，我的态度一直十分明确。美 联储必须下调利率，而且我认为不需要下调太多，最终落到3%即可——这个水平更接近中性利率。"中 性利率是一个理论上的借贷成本水平，既不具有刺激性，也不具有限制性，能够维持美国经济平稳运 行。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 在周一的交易时段，市场起初充斥着对美联储独立性的担忧情绪。此前鲍威尔于上周末披露，美国司法 部已向美联储送达大陪审团传票，调查事项与其去年就美联储历史性办公大楼多年翻修项目所作的证词 相关。 音频由扣子空间生成 当日美国三大股指开盘均走低，但投资者随后逐渐摆脱忧虑情绪：道指（DJI）与标普500指数（SPX） 最终分别收于49590.20点和6977.27点，双双刷新历史纪录。 贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官里克・里德 ...

周一，股市走势再次被金属市场抢占头条。投资者大举增持避险资产，推动黄金与白银价格双双攀升至 前所未有的高度。 在刚刚过去的周末，与美国总统特朗普关的新闻持续发酵，伊朗、委内瑞拉、格陵兰岛等地的紧张局势 也在不断升级。受此影响，贵金属价格大幅走高，这一走势表明，大宗商品"超级周期"正"稳固延续"。 《黄金通讯》主编布莱恩・伦丁（Brien Lundin）表示，周一黄金与白银的上涨行情，虽被市场归因于 特朗普政府向美联储主席鲍威尔施加的压力，但即便没有这一因素，这两种贵金属的价格大概率也会大 幅走高。 "上周，不仅黄金、白银这类货币金属，所有基本金属及大宗商品的价格走势都印证了一点——大宗商 品超级周期的趋势稳固不改。"他在接受《市场观察》采访时表示。所谓超级周期，指的是大宗商品价 格持续上涨的时期，而过去两年间，黄金与白银的价格均录得了尤为强劲的涨幅。 黄金白银双双创下历史纪录 周一，纽约商品交易所（Comex）2月交割的黄金期货价格上涨2.5%，收于每盎司4614.70美元，盘中一 度触及4640.50美元的历史高点；3月交割的白银期货价格上涨7.3%，收于每盎司85.09美元，盘中最高 攀升至86.34美元 ...

Group 1 - The core issue in the silver market is a significant supply shortage, with demand exceeding supply for four consecutive years, and a projected structural market gap of 148.9 million ounces in 2024, leading to a total shortfall of 678 million ounces over the past four years, equivalent to 10 months of global mine production in 2024 [1] - The recent trend in the COMEX silver market shows investors rolling their contracts back from March to January and February, indicating a desire for immediate physical delivery of silver rather than waiting for the March contract [2][3] - The increase in open interest for January and February contracts, alongside a decrease for March contracts, suggests that traders are seeking to secure physical silver amid a tight supply situation, which could further deplete COMEX registered inventories [4][5] Group 2 - The phenomenon of backwardation in the silver market, where contracts are rolled back to nearer expiration dates, indicates a current spot premium and a shortage of physical silver, as traders prefer immediate delivery [4] - Analysts suggest that the current market dynamics could lead to significant challenges for COMEX if the trend of increasing demand for physical delivery continues, potentially exacerbating the existing supply issues [5]

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in gold prices over the past year lacks a statistically valid explanation, making future predictions uncertain [1]. Group 1: Theories Explaining Gold Price Movements - **Inflation Hedge**: The common belief is that gold serves as a hedge against inflation, with prices rising during inflationary periods. However, the correlation between CPI changes and gold price movements is only 1.1%, indicating a weak predictive power [2][4]. - **Expected Inflation Hedge**: Some argue that gold reacts to expected future inflation rather than actual inflation. Yet, analysis using Cleveland Fed's inflation expectations shows no significant correlation with gold prices, even weaker than actual CPI changes [5][6]. - **Geopolitical Risk**: Another theory posits that gold prices rise with increased geopolitical risks. However, the geopolitical risk index only explains 0.1% of gold price changes, indicating a negligible relationship [7][8]. - **Economic Policy Risk**: The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) was also tested, revealing that it explains only 0.9% of gold price changes, further supporting the lack of correlation [9]. - **Chinese Gold Purchases**: The theory linking gold's bull market to increased gold purchases by the Chinese central bank is prevalent, but the correlation is weak, with an R-squared value of only 0.6% [10]. - **Gold ETF Net Inflows**: The highest correlation with gold prices is found in the net inflows of physical gold ETFs. However, even this correlation lacks statistical significance at the 95% confidence level [11]. Group 2: Challenges in Timing the Gold Market - None of the discussed theories provide a solid synchronous or leading indicator for gold price fluctuations, complicating market timing strategies [12]. - Historical data shows that various gold market timing strategies have underperformed the buy-and-hold strategy by an average of 4.0 percentage points annually since the mid-1980s [12].