国际货币基金组织（IMF）总裁淡化了美元在过去一年的跌势，称美元很可能将保持其主导地位。 IMF总裁克里斯塔利娜・格奥尔基耶娃（Kristalina Georgieva）周一在接受彭博电视采访时表示："我们不应该被汇率的短期波动冲昏头脑。我认为美元的角 色短期内不会发生变化。" 她说，人们"应该认真思考为什么美元在国际货币体系中扮演如此重要的角色"，并指出"美国资本市场的深度与流动性、经济规模以及美国的企业家精神"。 格奥尔基耶娃是在沙特欧拉举行的一场IMF新兴市场会议上发表上述言论的，其观点与她过去一年的表态相呼应。 追踪美元兑一篮子10种主要货币的彭博美元指数去年下跌8.1%，为2017年以来最大跌幅。今年该指数又下跌1.3%，原因是特朗普政府的关税政策以及美国 政府财政状况恶化引发全球投资者担忧。 美国财政部长斯科特・贝森特（Scott Bessent）上周表示，美国"一贯奉行强势美元政策"，当局并未进行干预以压低美元。 在他发表此番言论前不久，有记者问特朗普是否担心美元贬值，这位美国总统回答："不，我觉得这很棒。" 摩根大通指数显示，反映这一利好的是，投资者持有新兴市场主权美元债券而非美国国债所要求的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are shifting their focus from U.S. equities to international markets, betting that the U.S. advantage will narrow, marking a significant change in investment strategy [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The MSCI All-Country World Ex-U.S. Index surged 29% last year, outperforming the S&P 500's 16% increase, indicating a strong performance in international markets [2]. - Global indices, including the European Stoxx 600, South Korea's Composite Index, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index, have outperformed major U.S. benchmarks since 2026 [1]. - Investors are increasingly allocating funds to international markets, with a net inflow of $51.6 billion into international equity ETFs in January, reflecting a significant shift in investment behavior [2]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Fund managers express optimism about global markets, citing fiscal stimulus in Japan and increased military spending in Europe as positive developments [1]. - There is a growing belief among investors that diversification into international equities is becoming essential, as evidenced by inquiries from clients about increasing overseas stock allocations [6]. - Despite the shift, many still believe that U.S. equities will continue to lead the global market, albeit with a reduced advantage compared to previous years [5][6]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The depreciation of the U.S. dollar by approximately 10% since its peak in 2022 has enhanced the relative value of overseas companies, making international stocks more attractive [5]. - Concerns about the expanding national debt and political volatility in the U.S. are prompting investors to consider reducing their exposure to U.S. equities and rebalancing their portfolios [6].

Group 1 - The core issue for investors is whether Kevin Warsh, nominated by President Trump as the Federal Reserve Chair, is fundamentally a hawk or a dovish figure [1] - The market often has the final say, as seen in March 2020 when ECB President Lagarde's comments led to market turmoil that forced the ECB to intervene [2] - Warsh has a history of hawkish views, focusing on inflation over unemployment during his tenure at the Fed from 2006 to 2011, and he resigned due to disagreements over the scale and duration of post-crisis monetary stimulus [3] Group 2 - Despite potential similarities in interest rate decisions, Warsh's approach to policy execution is noteworthy, with expectations of changes in communication and reassessment of post-global financial crisis policy tools [4] - Warsh and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin agree that the Fed's role has expanded beyond setting interest rates, indicating a marginal institutional change rather than a significant policy shift [5] - The relationship between interest rates and the balance sheet is complex, and attempts to offset rate cuts with balance sheet reductions could send mixed signals to the market [5] Group 3 - Warsh argues that productivity gains driven by artificial intelligence could justify lower interest rates, but this does not necessarily mean that low rates should be maintained [6] - The nomination of Warsh does not fundamentally alter the risk balance for investors, and maintaining patience rather than adjusting positions is deemed appropriate [7] - In an environment where inflation shocks may be more severe and frequent, incorporating tangible assets like commodities and inflation-protected bonds into long-term portfolios remains a crucial risk diversification strategy [7]

美国1月通胀数据将于本周五公布，市场普遍预期，消费者物价指数（CPI）环比温和上涨0.3%，同比 增速将回落至2.5%。 野村证券经济学家爱知天也（Aichi Amemiya）表示："直到去年12月，关税转嫁一直是缓慢且渐进的。 零售商完全有可能通过节后调价，将更高成本转嫁给消费者。" 不过，通胀超预期也可能是数据统计方式带来的统计假象，这将让1月数据的解读变得格外困难。 年初本就是企业集中提价的时间点：健身房上调会费、流媒体平台提高订阅价格、零售商取消假日折扣 等。 负责编制CPI的美国劳工部劳工统计局（BLS）会对数据进行季节性调整，以消除每年重复出现的价格 波动模式。换句话说，如果价格总是在1月上涨更多，这一现象本不应体现在经季节性调整后的CPI 中。 但许多经济学家认为，劳工统计局并未完全剔除季节效应，数据中仍存在"剩余季节性"。波士顿联储上 周发布的一项研究显示，自1985年以来，经季节性调整后的1月通胀，平均比其他月份高出0.03个百分 点。考虑到哪怕月度数据仅变动0.1个百分点对市场都意义重大，这一差距并不算小。 近年来，这种"剩余季节性"现象愈发明显。波士顿联储这项研究的首席研究员克里斯托弗・ ...

音频由扣子空间生成 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 在选举年，美国总统特朗普将自己定位为共和党在生活成本问题上的核心发言人，但路透社对其演讲的分析显示，这位总统反复宣称通胀已被击败， 却极少承认许多美国人仍感受到的生活压力。 自去年12月以来的五场经济演讲中，特朗普近20次宣称通胀已被击败或大幅下降，近30次称物价正在下跌，这些说法与经济数据及选民日常体验相 悖。其余大部分时间，他都在表达不满和谈论其他问题，包括移民问题、索马里是否算一个国家，以及对政敌的攻击。 综合来看，这些演讲展现出特朗普正艰难调和其核心主张——已解决生活成本危机——与现实之间的矛盾：过去一年通胀率接近3%，选民购买日常食 品的支出仍在增加。例如，自特朗普一年前上任以来，碎牛肉价格上涨18%，研磨咖啡价格上涨29%。 美国CPI依旧顽固 共和党战略家向路透社表示，在11月中期选举（届时国会控制权将面临争夺）前，特朗普在这一选民最关注的议题上传递的混乱信息，可能给他本人 及共和党带来信誉危机。民调显示，选民对特朗普处理经济的方式极为不满。 共和党战略家罗布・戈弗雷（Rob Godfrey）称："他不能再发表明显错误的言论，尤其是牺牲那 ...

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 美建议美商船远离伊朗领海 白宫哈塞特预告就业转差 美商务部长卢特尼克遭两党施压辞职 24小时内英国首相第二名高级助手辞职 沪深北交易所宣布优化再融资一揽子措施 三部门发布跨境电子商务出口退运商品税收优惠政策 周一，美元指数走势低迷，跌至一周低点，最终收跌0.91%，报96.79；美债收益率普跌，基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.204%，对美联储政策利率敏感的2 年期美债收益率收报3.487%。 在市场等待一系列美国经济数据之际，美元走弱使得以美元计价的大宗商品对海外买家更具吸引力。现货黄金延续涨势，最高触及5086.42美元/盎司，最终 收涨1.93%，报5060.53美元/盎司；现货白银一度触及84美元关口，最终收涨7.17%，报83.37美元/盎司。 国际原油低开高走，因美国警告悬挂美国国旗的船只在霍尔木兹海峡航行时应尽可能远离伊朗水域。WTI原油美盘加速上涨，最终收涨1.45%，报64.45美 元/桶；布伦特原油收涨1.71%，报68.70美元/桶。 美股 ...

他的同事、美联储理事沃勒不同意这一观点。在解释为何他在1月会议上反而投票支持再次降息时，沃 勒表示，修正后的数据可能会显示去年就业实际上几乎没有增长。 "零，没有，啥也没有，"沃勒在一份声明中说。"这看起来一点也不像一个健康的劳动力市场。" 预计一份内容比往常更厚重的就业报告将揭示美国劳动力市场在近年来究竟放缓了多少，或者也许根本 就没有增长。 除了常规的月度非农就业人数和失业数据外，定于本周三发布的1月就业报告还包括备受期待的就业人 数修正。在初步估算显示截至2025年3月的一年内就业人数创纪录地下修91.1万人之后，预计此次修正 将大幅下调招聘步伐。 "今年的年度基准修正将比往年更为重要，"BMO资本市场首席美国经济学家Scott Anderson表示。"目前 劳动力市场确实似乎处于净就业增长和可能出现的就业流失之间的刀刃上。" 该报告由劳工统计局（BLS）编制，原定于2月6日发布，但因部分政府关门而推迟。 随着每一份1月就业报告的发布，劳工统计局会将就业人数对标到一个更准确但时效性较差的系列数 据，即"就业和工资季度普查"（QCEW）。该数据基于州失业保险税收记录，覆盖了大多数美国工作岗 位。 除了针对 ...

Group 1 - The job market in the U.S. remains frozen, with January showing the worst layoff plans since 2009 and only 22,000 jobs added by private employers compared to 140,000 in the same month last year [1] - Major companies like Amazon, Pinterest, UPS, Home Depot, and The Washington Post have announced significant layoffs, indicating a slowdown in hiring, particularly in healthcare and social services [1] - Economists predict a modest increase of 70,000 jobs in the upcoming non-farm payroll report, with the unemployment rate expected to slightly decrease, but revisions to 2025 data may show fewer jobs added than initially reported [2] Group 2 - The number of job vacancies in the U.S. was only 6.5 million at the end of December, significantly below economists' expectations and the lowest level since 2020 [2] - Initial jobless claims rose to 231,000, exceeding expectations, potentially influenced by severe winter weather, although claims had been relatively low prior to this [2] - Some eligible applicants may abandon unemployment benefits due to the complicated application process or insufficient amounts, leading to unclear insights into the actual job market [3] Group 3 - Despite challenges in the job market, other economic indicators show strong performance, with GDP growing at an annualized rate of 4.4% in Q3, the strongest growth in two years, driven by healthy consumer spending and exports [4] - The overall economy is considered robust, with low layoff rates and strong economic growth, although low- and middle-income families continue to face challenges [4] - The potential for AI and productivity growth may continue to drive the economy forward, but the labor market shows signs of downward risk [5]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Solomon analysts indicate that the current volatility in gold prices is merely "short-term noise," with strong confidence in the long-term upward trend, expecting gold prices to break $5,000 in the coming weeks and retest $5,600 in the second quarter [1] - Investinglive analysts note that while gold has struggled to maintain the $5,000 level, it remains relatively stable compared to silver, and the market is looking for a decrease in volatility, which may lead to a slight price drop [1] - Dongwu Securities highlights a shift in gold pricing from "trend-based allocation" to "emotion and expectation-driven" due to rising macro uncertainty and risk premiums, indicating a faster response to bullish factors [1] Group 2: Oil Price Forecast - Capital Economics predicts that oil prices will decline to around $50 per barrel by the end of 2026, driven by easing supply concerns and geopolitical risks [2] - Brent crude oil futures recently rebounded but are expected to record their first weekly decline in nearly two months due to investor focus on geopolitical developments [2] Group 3: Japanese Monetary Policy - BNP Paribas economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates at a faster pace than previously anticipated, with potential hikes starting in April and continuing every four to five months until reaching a 2% policy rate [3] Group 4: Commodity Market Outlook - CICC reports that the commodity market remains a beneficiary of global fund diversification, with structural demand and supply gaps in various sectors, suggesting that the commodity market's structural trend is not over yet [5] - CICC also notes that the recent Japanese election results may lead to a stronger stock market and potential foreign exchange interventions if the yen depreciates excessively [5] Group 5: A-Share Market Analysis - Huatai Securities suggests that the A-share market's adjustment phase may be nearing its end, with a recommendation to gradually increase portfolio flexibility and focus on sectors with high valuation and growth potential [6] - CITIC Securities anticipates significant growth in the space photovoltaic sector, driven by demand from AI and related technologies [7] Group 6: Broker Sector Insights - CITIC Securities indicates that the brokerage sector is expected to experience a valuation recovery and earnings growth by 2026, with significant room for improvement in valuations compared to historical levels [8] - Guosen Securities highlights that the brokerage sector's fundamentals are improving, with a notable mismatch between fundamentals and valuations, suggesting high cost-effectiveness for current investments [13]

Group 1: Precious Metals Futures - Recent volatility in precious metals remains high, with unclear trends; silver and gold futures have shown significant gains, with silver up 8.9% to 20,873 yuan/kg and gold up 3.88% to 1,125.94 yuan/g [1] - The upcoming release of U.S. CPI and non-farm employment data may trigger fluctuations in gold and other precious metals; geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region continue to pose risks [1] - Central banks are expected to maintain a strong interest in increasing gold reserves due to long-term factors such as geopolitical instability and global monetary system restructuring [1] Group 2: Platinum and Palladium Futures - Platinum and palladium futures are expected to follow the overall sentiment of the precious metals sector, with platinum rising 10.58% to 545.05 yuan/g and palladium up 7.59% to 438.15 yuan/g [1] - The platinum market has experienced physical shortages for several years, with limited mining capacity and insufficient capital expenditure, leading to a structural supply gap [2] - Palladium supply remains constrained, with low inventories and high supply concentration, making it a high-volatility trading product [2] Group 3: Alumina Futures - Alumina futures experienced fluctuations due to rumors of production cuts; the main contract closed up 1.45% at 2,868 yuan/ton [2] - Despite production cuts and maintenance, overall alumina supply remains high, leading to an oversupply situation; inventory levels continue to rise [2][3] - The market is awaiting confirmation of production cut rumors from a major alumina producer, but even if confirmed, it may not significantly alter the overall oversupply dynamics [2]