曾令投资者在4月惊慌失措的"特朗普关税噩梦"——价格飙升、货架空空、供应链混乱、经济衰退—— 至今尚未成真。而即便美方在全球贸易谈判中反复无常，金融市场却开始显得愈发淡定。 然而本周，随着摩根大通(JPM.N)与奈飞(NFLX.O)等巨头率先披露二季度财报，投资者的"新淡定"情绪 将迎来首次真正考验，更多企业高管也将在财报会上分享他们对经济和贸易环境的判断。 Aptus Capital Advisors的股票主管兼投资经理Dave Wagner表示，这些财报也将是对新关税影响的"第一 次真实测试"，因为这些影响尚未反映在第一季度的数据中。 在过去三个月，分析师下调企业盈利预期的幅度略高于往常，原因正是越来越多的企业对全球贸易环境 的不确定性持谨慎态度。同时，另一个华尔街关注重点——利润率——也预计会出现环比下滑。 根据FactSet数据，市场预计标普500成分股公司第二季度每股盈利将同比增长4.8%，为自2023年第四季 度以来最低增幅；净利润率预计为12.2%，低于第一季度的12.7%，但与去年同期持平，仍高于五年平 均值11.8%。 多家公司已发出预警：沃尔玛(WMT.N)和美泰(MAT.O)指出关税将推 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's long-term government bonds experienced a significant drop, leading to a sharp rise in yields, which has raised concerns in the global bond market [1] Group 1: Bond Market Reactions - The yields on Japanese government bonds from 10-year to 40-year maturities surged, reminiscent of the yield spikes that affected global markets in May [1] - Analysts suggest that the rise in yields is linked to concerns over increased government spending and liquidity issues [1] Group 2: Political Implications - The upcoming Senate elections may empower opposition parties advocating for tax cuts and increased government spending, potentially pressuring the Bank of Japan to maintain low interest rates [3] - Polls indicate that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ruling coalition may lose its majority, leading to potential collaborations with smaller parties favoring expansionary fiscal and monetary policies [3][4] - If the ruling coalition retains its majority, Ishiba might still adopt a less hawkish fiscal stance to mitigate the impacts of U.S. tariffs and rising living costs [4] Group 3: Economic Forecasts - Japan's public debt stands at 250% of GDP, with a significant portion of the budget allocated to servicing this debt, raising concerns about rising debt servicing costs as the central bank moves away from zero interest rates [4] - The Bank of Japan is expected to consider raising its inflation forecasts due to rising food costs, particularly rice, which has affected consumer prices [6][7] - Current inflation data shows core consumer inflation at 3.7%, exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% target for over three years, driven by a 7.7% increase in food costs [7]

Group 1 - Economists have revised their outlook for the U.S. economy, expecting stronger growth and job creation, with a lower risk of recession and milder inflation compared to three months ago [1][2] - The average forecast for inflation-adjusted GDP growth in Q4 is now 1%, up from 0.8% in April, but still half of the January expectation [1][2] - The probability of a recession in the next 12 months has decreased to 33% from 45% in April, but is higher than the 22% in January [1][2] Group 2 - Recent economic data has shown resilience, with average job growth of 150,000 over the past three months and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.1% [2][3] - Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.8% year-over-year in May, the lowest in four years, although still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [2][3] - Economists expect that Trump's tariff policies will contribute 0.7 percentage points to inflation by Q4 2025, despite a lower average inflation forecast of 3% for December compared to 3.6% in April [3][4] Group 3 - The labor market outlook has improved since April, with an expected average monthly job increase of 74,070, up from 54,619 in April [4] - Economists predict the unemployment rate will rise to 4.5% by December, down from the previous forecast of 4.7% [4] - The impact of immigration policy changes is expected to offset economic growth contributions from Trump's policies, with a reduction of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth in 2025 and 2026, respectively [4]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Goldman Sachs reports that central banks and institutions bought an average of 77 tons of gold per month from January to May this year, with expectations for gold prices to reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 [1] - The firm maintains a "long-term bullish" investment recommendation for gold, anticipating new highs in the coming quarters [1] Group 2: Currency and Trade Implications - Morgan Stanley suggests that a weaker dollar is an underestimated strong tailwind for U.S. corporate earnings, particularly benefiting large-cap companies with significant overseas profits [2] - The dollar has declined by 10% this year, marking its worst performance since 1973, with further declines expected [2] - Jefferies predicts that the Singapore dollar could appreciate to parity with the U.S. dollar within five years, representing a 28% increase [3] Group 3: U.S. Economic Outlook - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce raises its year-end target for the S&P 500 index to 6,250 points, citing increased investor confidence and focus on the 2026 economic outlook [4] - CIBC forecasts that U.S. inflation will rise to 2.6% year-on-year in June, driven by tariff-induced cost increases [6][7] Group 4: Trade Agreements and Market Reactions - Dutch International Bank indicates that the EU still has time to negotiate a trade agreement with the U.S. amid tariff threats from Trump [5] - HSBC notes that changes in U.S. policy and upcoming inflation data will likely influence the dollar's performance this week [6] Group 5: Sector-Specific Opportunities - Citic Securities highlights that the banking sector is expected to continue its upward trend in Q3, driven by undervalued stocks and a favorable earnings outlook [10] - Citic Securities also identifies potential investment opportunities in the AI sector, particularly with the release of the new Grok 4 model, which shows significant advancements in reasoning capabilities [12] - Guotai Junan Securities suggests that the media sector presents opportunities in areas such as IP and gaming, advanced technology applications, and companies with stable performance [16]

然而，如果关税真的实施，潜在的经济损害是巨大的。这家华尔街银行估计，持续30%的关税将使欧元 区的国内生产总值（GDP）到2026年底累计下降1.2%。 巴克莱银行的经济学家也表达了同样的情绪，预测经济活动将出现"更深的近期收缩"。他们认为，一次 大规模的关税上调可能会使欧元区的实际GDP增长再削减0.7个百分点。 美国总统特朗普威胁要对欧盟商品征收30%的关税，一些投行警告称，此举可能引发欧盟"持久且更深 的经济放缓"，并可能迫使欧洲央行降息。 上周末，特朗普以致欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩的信函形式，公布了新的税率。他补充说，如果欧盟以更 高的关税进行报复，"那么，无论你们选择提高多少，都将在我们收取的30%基础上再叠加。" 高盛表示，致欧盟的这封信出人意料，在各方原以为贸易谈判正"富有建设性"地进行之后，它"重新点 燃了对欧元区前景的担忧"。高盛的首席欧洲经济学家Sven Jari Stehn在7月13日给客户的一份报告中 说： "话虽如此，特朗普的威胁很可能是一种谈判策略，并且（目前）我们维持我们的基线情 景，即可以达成一项维持当前关税税率的'框架协议'，其中包括对所有商品征收10%的关 税，以及对钢铁/铝 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the warning from Jared Bernstein about the potential for a debt crisis in the U.S. if current fiscal trends continue, drawing parallels to unsustainable student loan debt [1] - Bernstein notes that the relationship between economic growth and debt interest rates has become increasingly precarious, suggesting that if GDP growth does not outpace debt interest rates, the government may struggle to maintain budget deficits [1][2] - The number of Americans with federal student loan debt has more than doubled from 21 million in 2000 to 45 million in 2020, with total debt rising from $387 billion to $1.8 trillion, indicating a significant increase in household debt [2] Group 2 - Bernstein suggests that to avoid a debt crisis that could force the government to make abrupt spending cuts or tax increases, Congress should preemptively establish "emergency moments" and binding fiscal responses [3] - Interest payments on U.S. debt are projected to exceed spending on Medicare and defense, with estimates indicating that these interest payments will reach $1 trillion next year, making it the government's largest expenditure after Social Security [3] - The overall debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to surpass post-World War II records, with Goldman Sachs indicating that the current fiscal path is unsustainable, as the basic deficit is significantly larger in a strong economy [3]

在通过避险交易大赚一笔后，黄金多头正大举转向白银——这一"穷人的黄金"被押注为贵金属市场的下一个超级风口。 白银的爆发式上涨正值黄金资深投资者开始撤退之际。 Motilal Oswal金融服务公司此前在印度金价达到3万卢比时看多，目标5万卢比，却在本月初收手。"我们已见证超30%的涨幅，而过去25年数据显示，纽约 商品交易所（Comex）黄金单年涨幅从未超过32%，"该券商指出，"价格处于高位已显现市场疲态。" Goldilocks Premium Research的高塔姆·沙阿（Gautam Shah）曾陪伴黄金从1800美元涨至3500美元，却在上月清空了黄金头寸。 "黄金的利多因素已基本被定价，正进入长期盘整阶段，且这一趋势将持续，"沙阿说，"但过去几个月，我们对白银始终极度看好。" 过去三个月，白银ETF涨幅飙升约18%，远超黄金ETF仅4%的温和回报，投机者纷纷抛弃涨幅过高的黄金，涌入白银。 周一现货白银站上39美元/盎司，续创2011年9月以来新高，今年迄今涨幅扩大至35%。 白银此次涨势的导火索是美国总统特朗普宣布的新关税政策：自8月1日起，对加拿大进口商品加征35%关税，对其他多数贸易伙伴普遍 ...

Group 1 - Bitcoin has surpassed the $120,000 mark, indicating a resurgence in investor optimism after months of stagnation [1][2] - The recent price increase is attributed to a surge in risk appetite in the stock market and significant institutional inflows into spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs [2][3] - Bitcoin's price has increased approximately 30% since December, with a doubling in value over the past year [2][3] Group 2 - The next critical resistance level for Bitcoin is at $125,000, with analysts expecting potential short-term profit-taking but maintaining that the upward trend remains strong [4] - The recent rally was also fueled by the liquidation of bearish positions, with over $1 billion in short positions being cleared [4] - Anticipation surrounding the U.S. Congress's "Crypto Week" and potential legislative discussions on key cryptocurrency regulations is contributing to the bullish sentiment [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is defending its $2.5 billion renovation project for its headquarters, which has faced criticism for cost overruns and luxury features, emphasizing the importance of managing public resources and modernizing historical buildings [2][3]. Project Core Objectives - The renovation aims to integrate operational functions to reduce long-term costs while modernizing two historical buildings that have not been fully renovated since the 1930s [3]. - Key renovation aspects include safety upgrades, system replacements, structural compliance, and public space optimization [3]. Project Consultation and Approval - The Federal Reserve consulted multiple state and federal agencies during the project, including the Commission on Fine Arts and the National Capital Planning Commission [4]. - Early communication with Congress and local committees was established to inform them about the operational integration plan [4]. Reasons for Cost Increase - The cost increase is attributed to design changes, cost discrepancies in materials and labor, and unforeseen issues such as asbestos and soil contamination [5]. Key Project Details - Original marble from the buildings is being reused, with new domestic marble used where necessary to meet historical preservation standards [7]. - The project includes features like a "garden terrace" and "green roof" for rainwater management and building efficiency, which have been previously implemented in other federal buildings [8]. Collaboration with NCPC - The Federal Reserve has maintained constructive cooperation with the National Capital Planning Commission, receiving positive feedback on their collaboration [9]. - The Federal Reserve retains control over its buildings and spending decisions, with NCPC's review being advisory [9]. Cost Control and Transparency - The project employs competitive bidding for all procurement processes, ensuring maximum overall benefits in terms of time, quality, and price [10]. - The Federal Reserve is subject to congressional oversight, with the chairman testifying twice a year to address inquiries [10]. Challenges in Renovating Historical Buildings - Renovating historical buildings like the Eccles Building and the Constitution Avenue Building involves unique challenges, requiring specialized techniques that increase costs and complexity [11]. Project Adjustments and Long-term Benefits - Cost optimization measures include reducing certain design elements and canceling separate renovation plans for another building, aiming to lower long-term expenses [12]. - The project reflects the Federal Reserve's commitment to historical preservation while balancing public resource utilization and operational needs [12]. Independent Oversight - The Federal Reserve's Inspector General conducts regular audits, and the Government Accountability Office reviews the project multiple times a year, with results made public [14]. - Financial transparency is maintained through weekly balance sheet updates and annual audits by independent firms [14].

Group 1: Stablecoin Developments - Over 50 companies are interested in applying for stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong, with half being payment institutions and the other half well-known internet companies, mostly with Chinese backgrounds. The initial phase is expected to issue only 3 to 4 licenses, primarily pegged to the Hong Kong dollar and US dollar [1] Group 2: Virtual Asset Trading Services - Harfu Securities, a subsidiary of Dongfang Caifu, has received approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to provide virtual asset trading services through a comprehensive account arrangement [2] Group 3: Bitcoin Market Sentiment - Analysts indicate that the Bitcoin market has not yet reached an extremely optimistic state, but this could change soon. Market sentiment and trading activity show cautious optimism among participants regarding Bitcoin's future [3] Group 4: Regulatory Actions and Legal Issues - Coinbase has filed a lawsuit against Oregon state officials, demanding the disclosure of public records related to sudden changes in cryptocurrency regulation that classify digital assets as regulated securities without public participation [4] - SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce stated that certain token issuers need to engage in dialogue with the SEC, emphasizing that tokenized securities must comply with existing securities regulations [5] Group 5: Bitcoin Options Market - Bitcoin options data shows that traders are targeting higher price ranges, with open interest for options expiring in September and December reaching strike prices of $140,000 and $150,000, reflecting strong bullish sentiment in the market [6] Group 6: Macroeconomic Influences on Bitcoin - A report from 10x Research suggests that Bitcoin's recent all-time high is driven by deeper macroeconomic changes rather than market speculation, including increased US debt and significant fiscal spending [7] Group 7: Election Security and Blockchain - Experts warn that the US election system still lacks critical encryption security measures, suggesting improvements through software upgrades to enhance voting machine security [9] Group 8: ETF Market Performance - BlackRock's IBIT ETF has become the fastest ETF to surpass $80 billion in assets under management, achieving this milestone in just 374 days, significantly quicker than the previous record [10] Group 9: Ethereum's Competitive Landscape - The CEO of Bitwise stated that Ethereum's true competitors are Web 2.0 and traditional financial services, rather than Bitcoin, highlighting the diversity of opportunities across different blockchains [11] Group 10: Stablecoin Risks and Recommendations - The Governor of the Bank of England warned about the systemic risks posed by privately issued stablecoins and suggested focusing on deposit tokenization instead of launching central bank digital currencies [12] Group 11: Blockchain Technology in Payments - Lianlian Digital plans to raise approximately HKD 394 million for the application of blockchain technology in the payment sector, indicating a focus on innovation and global business expansion [13]