Core Points - The article discusses the unexpected increase in tariffs by the Trump administration on Vietnam, despite initial agreements suggesting a significant reduction in tariffs [1][2] - Vietnam's government has not formally accepted the proposed tariff changes, leading to skepticism about the existence of a finalized agreement [1][2] - The situation has caused strong reactions in Vietnam, with officials expressing surprise and disappointment at the unilateral decision made by the U.S. [2][3] Group 1: Tariff Negotiations - Trump announced a framework agreement that would impose a 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports, down from a previously announced 46% [1] - The Vietnamese negotiating team reportedly agreed to a tariff level of around 11%, which Trump disregarded in his announcement [1][2] - The lack of a formal agreement document raises questions about the validity and timing of the new tariff rates [2][3] Group 2: Impact on U.S.-Vietnam Relations - The tariff dispute could jeopardize the diplomatic relations and growing economic ties established between the U.S. and Vietnam since the end of the Vietnam War [3] - Trade between the U.S. and Vietnam has significantly increased, from $2.9 billion in 2002 to over $139 billion in 2022, with Vietnam becoming the sixth-largest source of U.S. imports [3] - Other countries are increasingly anxious about negotiating with the U.S. under the current administration, fearing arbitrary changes to agreements [3]

Economic Indicators - San Francisco Fed President Daly considers implementing interest rate cuts in the fall, believing there will be two rate cuts this year [2] - The U.S. Commerce Secretary will visit Japan next week, indicating ongoing trade discussions [2] - The U.S. Treasury announced that government procurement projects for medical devices over 45 million RMB should exclude EU companies [2] Market Performance - The U.S. stock market saw slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.43%, Nasdaq up 0.09%, and S&P 500 up 0.27%, with both Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching historical highs [3] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.57%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.29% [4] - A-shares showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.48% and the Shenzhen Component up 0.47% [4] Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil fell 2.1% to $65.78 per barrel, while Brent crude oil dropped 1.90% to $68.15 per barrel [7] - Spot gold rose 0.32% to $3324.43 per ounce, and spot silver increased by 1.7% to $36.98 per ounce [7] Cryptocurrency Developments - Bitcoin surpassed $117,000, marking a daily increase of over 4%, while Ethereum rose over 8%, crossing the $3,000 mark for the first time since early February [5]

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets are showing resilience despite ongoing tariff threats from Trump, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new highs, and Nvidia's market cap surpassing $4 trillion. Bitcoin also hit an all-time high [2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, warns that the market has become complacent regarding Trump's tariff threats, suggesting that investors believe he will back down as he has in the past [3]. - Dimon emphasizes the importance of a trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU, which could stabilize tariffs and provide a framework for future negotiations [3]. - The market is currently preparing for the upcoming second-quarter earnings season, with concerns about the impact of tariffs on corporate profits [7]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Dimon indicates that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates is higher than market expectations, suggesting a 40% to 50% chance compared to the market's 20% [5]. - He attributes this higher probability to inflationary pressures stemming from tariffs, immigration policies, and budget deficits, alongside global trade restructuring [5]. - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on July 29-30 is critical, as market participants are divided on the likelihood of rate cuts later in the year [4][5]. Group 3: Corporate Earnings Expectations - Analysts are skeptical about the earnings outlook for S&P 500 companies, with expectations for only a 2% growth in profits, the weakest in two years, primarily due to tariff uncertainties [8]. - Despite the low expectations, some analysts believe that growth-oriented companies, particularly in the tech sector, will still deliver strong results [8]. - There is a belief that the market's pessimism regarding the earnings season may be overstated, with potential positive surprises from improving corporate guidance and a weaker dollar [8].

Group 1 - The VIX index has dropped to 16, significantly below the long-term average of around 20, indicating lower short-term volatility expectations for the S&P 500 [1] - Nvidia's market capitalization has surpassed $4 trillion, leading a surge in technology stocks [1] Group 2 - Despite President Trump's recent threats of new tariffs, market reactions have been muted, with investors less concerned about his statements compared to earlier in the year [3] - The "TACO trade" has emerged, reflecting investor sentiment that Trump is likely to back down from aggressive tariff actions that could harm U.S. growth [3][4] - The foreign exchange market remains calm, with volatility indices returning to early-year levels, suggesting that the market does not expect a repeat of the turmoil seen in April [4] Group 3 - Some investors express concerns that the current stock market exuberance may embolden Trump to implement more aggressive trade actions than anticipated [5] - The S&P 500 is nearing historical highs, with forward P/E ratios reaching 24, raising concerns about low safety margins in valuations [5]

Core Viewpoint - Economists and analysts warn that President Trump's comprehensive trade policy, which imposes high tariffs on most goods entering the U.S., will lead to significant price increases for consumers, despite recent economic data showing relatively mild overall inflation [1] Group 1: Price Increases and Inflation Data - Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from May indicates price increases in several tariff-sensitive categories, with appliance prices rising 0.8% in both April and May, marking the highest monthly increase in nearly four years [1] - Toy prices have increased for the second consecutive month, rising 1.3%, matching a four-year high [1] - Home goods, tools, and sports equipment prices are accelerating after previously declining in the pandemic years [1] - DataWeave's analysis shows that home and furniture prices have accelerated significantly since January, with increases of 1.1% in February, 2.1% in March, 2.8% in April, 3.7% in May, and 4.7% in June [1] Group 2: Retailer-Specific Price Changes - Clothing and footwear prices remained stable from February to May but saw a slight increase in June, rising 1.7% compared to January [2][3] - Some retailers, such as Walmart and Target, have experienced larger price increases for toys, with prices rising 7.4% and 6.1% respectively since January, compared to an average increase of 3.8% [3] Group 3: Future Price Expectations - DataWeave's CEO predicts broader price increases in the coming months as tariff effects propagate through the supply chain, with expectations of "shrinkflation" and an increase in private label products due to consumer resistance to price hikes [3] - Wells Fargo anticipates that the upcoming June CPI report may mark a turning point, with higher effective tariff rates impacting overall inflation, particularly in core goods categories [3] Group 4: Mechanisms Behind Mild Inflation - Tariffs have been implemented in phases, with the earliest tariffs taking effect in February and March, while most were announced or implemented after April [4] - Trade policies and tariffs are subject to change, with many announced tariffs being delayed, canceled, or unexpectedly adjusted [4] - The transportation of goods takes time, with shipping from other countries to the U.S. potentially taking weeks or more, and domestic supply chains also requiring time to process imported goods [5] - Companies had stockpiled inventory before tariffs took effect, and some costs have been absorbed by foreign exporters, with Goldman Sachs estimating that about 20% of the additional costs are borne by exporters [6] - Businesses are hesitant to pass on high prices due to weakened consumer spending power, leading to reduced pricing power for companies [6] - Consumer spending is more focused on services during summer, with expectations that product prices will become more significant in household budgets during the fall and winter [6] - Economic data often lags behind current events, with key inflation data for June set to be released soon [6][7] - Rising commodity prices have been reflected in inflation data but are largely masked by falling gasoline prices and slowing price increases in the service sector [7] - Goldman Sachs noted that the effects of tariffs have not yet strongly appeared in official consumer price data, which is not surprising [8]

周四，据知情代表透露，OPEC+正讨论在下次月度增产之后，从10月起暂停进一步增产。美、布两油 闻讯短线拉升上涨0.8美元，随后迅速回落。 尽管相关讨论尚处于初期阶段，但沙特及其盟友已初步计划在9月完成约220万桶/日的供应恢复计划， 预计9月将增产55万桶/日。 OPEC+从4月开始解除217万桶/日的减产计划，当月增产13.8万桶/日；5月、6月、7月及本月（8月）每 月分别增产41.1万桶/日。随着OPEC+第一阶段大规模增产接近尾声，市场的注意力正转向接下来会发 生什么。 OPEC+的8个主要成员国定于8月3日举行视频会议，敲定9月的计划。 OPEC下调未来四年全球石油需求预测，但坚称峰值尚未到来 周四，OPEC还发布了最新《2025年世界石油展望》，下调未来四年的全球石油需求预测，但基于发展 中国家消费增长，该组织上调了长期需求预期，并表示"石油需求峰值尚未到来"。 由OPEC与俄罗斯等盟友组成的OPEC+集团，在多年减产支撑市场后，正通过增产夺回市场份额。而中 期需求下调可能使其更难解除将于2026年底到期的其他减产措施。 OPEC在报告中称，今年全球石油需求平均为1.05亿桶/日，2026年将增 ...

Group 1 - SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce emphasizes that tokenized securities still fall under the category of securities and must comply with federal securities laws, highlighting the need for market participants to assess the legal nature of tokens based on specific circumstances [1] - The SEC has confirmed receipt of Bitwise's amendment regarding the physical redemption method for its spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs [1] Group 2 - Kraken's market share has increased from 19% at the beginning of the year to 29%, with an average monthly trading volume exceeding $20 billion over the past five months, driven by the launch of innovative products like xStocks and Krak [2] - UK cryptocurrency users will be required to submit personal information to service providers starting January 1, 2026, or face fines of up to £300 (approximately $408), aimed at linking crypto activities to tax records [2] Group 3 - UK crypto bank Ziglu has entered special administration due to severe financial difficulties, with reports indicating losses exceeding £20 million over two consecutive years and a significant loss from the Celsius Network bankruptcy [3] - The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has ordered Ziglu to cease its e-money issuance and crypto custody services [3] Group 4 - The U.S. House of Representatives will hold a hearing on July 16 to discuss digital asset tax policies, with a focus on creating a framework for cryptocurrency taxation [4] - The House is expected to vote on a stablecoin regulatory bill next week, indicating that cryptocurrency taxation will be a major legislative focus [4] Group 5 - Emirates Airlines has signed a memorandum of understanding with Crypto.com to explore integrating cryptocurrency payment capabilities into its payment system, expected to launch next year [5] - Greece has executed its first cryptocurrency asset freeze related to the $1.5 billion Bybit hacking incident, with approximately $72 million of the stolen funds currently frozen [5] Group 6 - Japanese company Remixpoint has raised approximately ¥31.5 billion (around $2.15 billion) to purchase Bitcoin, aiming to increase its holdings from 1,051 BTC to 3,000 BTC based on a strong belief in Bitcoin's future [6] Group 7 - Greenland Holdings has revealed that its subsidiary, Greenland Jinchuang, holds licenses from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to support virtual asset-related businesses [7] Group 8 - A key U.S. Senate committee is debating proposed digital asset regulations, with Republicans advocating for a "soft" regulatory approach while Democrats warn of potential loopholes and conflicts of interest [8] - SEC's cryptocurrency task force head reiterates that tokenization of stocks and other assets does not change their nature, and they remain subject to federal securities laws [9]

Group 1 - The market shows a strong bullish sentiment with 61 contracts rising and 16 contracts falling today, indicating increased trading activity in upward-moving varieties [2][6] - The top gainers include polysilicon (+5.50%), glass (+5.25%), and coking coal (+4.24%), significantly influenced by supply and demand dynamics [6] - The largest inflows of capital were seen in the CSI 1000 (+2.34 billion), CSI 300 (+2.232 billion), and SSE 50 (+1.44 billion), while the largest outflows were in copper (-0.978 billion), soda ash (-0.616 billion), and glass (-0.374 billion) [8] Group 2 - The inventory of float glass has decreased to a two-and-a-half-month low, with a reduction of 1.983 million heavy boxes, indicating a tightening supply [11] - Malaysia's palm oil inventory reached an 18-month high, with June exports falling by 10.52% and production down by 4.48%, suggesting a bearish outlook for palm oil [12] - As of July 10, rebar production and inventory have shifted from increases to decreases, with production down by 2% and social inventory down by 1.44% [13] Group 3 - The U.S. plans to impose a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1, 2025, which may impact the copper market significantly [14] - Domestic soda ash inventory has reached historical highs, with a week-on-week increase of 2.98%, indicating potential oversupply issues [15] - Brazil's soybean production for the 2024/2025 season is projected to reach 169.6058 million tons, a 14.8% increase year-on-year, reflecting strong agricultural output [16] Group 4 - The glass main contract rose by 5.25% due to expectations of reduced production, which is likely to support prices [20] - The polysilicon main contract increased by 5.50%, but the market is still in a destocking phase, which may limit further price increases [21] - The caustic soda main contract rose by 3.64%, supported by improved macroeconomic sentiment and stable demand [23]

Core Viewpoint - The recent budget signed by President Trump reduces funding for the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), raising questions about the necessity of maintaining the SPR given the current energy landscape [1][4]. Group 1: SPR Overview - The U.S. SPR is the largest emergency oil reserve globally, capable of storing 714 million barrels, equivalent to 35 days of U.S. oil consumption. As of July 4, 2023, the reserve held only 403 million barrels, significantly below the record level of 727 million barrels in 2010 [1][4]. - The SPR was established in 1975 in response to the 1973 oil embargo, aimed at addressing supply disruptions and ensuring energy security [4][5]. Group 2: Recent Developments - In 2022, President Biden sold 180 million barrels from the SPR to alleviate rising oil prices, reducing the reserve to a 40-year low of 347 million barrels [4]. - The recent budget cuts for SPR funding from $1.3 billion to $171 million for 2025-2029 indicate a shift in priorities, with an additional $218 million allocated for maintenance [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The U.S. is projected to become a net exporter of crude oil and refined products, with record production expected to reach 13.5 million barrels per day by 2025, reducing the urgency to fill the SPR [5][8]. - Despite being a net exporter, the U.S. still imports significant amounts of crude oil, primarily due to quality requirements, with imports expected to reach 6.6 million barrels per day in 2024 [8]. - The SPR remains a critical tool for national security and foreign policy, serving as a deterrent against oil import disruptions [8].

Group 1 - The recent stock market rebound led by Nvidia has driven Bitcoin prices to briefly surpass $112,000, marking a historical high before a slight retreat [2] - Nvidia became the first company to briefly exceed a market capitalization of $4 trillion, contributing to the rise in tech stocks and the Nasdaq index reaching a new all-time high [2] - Despite the influx of billions into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Bitcoin has only increased by 2% over the past month, indicating a period of narrow fluctuations [2] Group 2 - The sustainability of Bitcoin's price increase largely depends on macroeconomic conditions and developments in trade, particularly in light of the upcoming August 1 trade agreement deadline [3] - A potential trade agreement progress and lower inflation data could support a continued rise in Bitcoin prices, as indicated by the recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes suggesting a favorable environment for interest rate cuts [3] - A weaker dollar has also provided support for Bitcoin, as it is primarily priced in dollars [4]