分析师们正努力预测以色列和伊朗不断升级的冲突可能对油价产生的影响。 继上周五以色列对伊朗的军事和核基础设施发动突然袭击后，这两个地区宿敌之间已经展开了五天的螺 旋式升级战。 美国总统特朗普周二要求德黑兰"无条件投降"，并警告华盛顿的耐心正在耗尽。作为回应，伊朗最高领 袖哈梅内伊威胁称，如果美国进行军事干预，将给其带来"无法弥补的损害"。 近几日大幅上涨的油价在周三继续走高。 投资管理公司Clean Energy Transition的创始人Per Lekander形容，在上周以色列袭击伊朗之前，鉴于欧 佩克（OPEC）和非欧佩克产油国供应增长充足而需求疲软，石油市场的状况很"糟糕"。 "我越来越相信，我们正走向像2014年或2020年那样，即油价跌至30-50美元的低价，以压低资本支出并 开启新周期。事实上，当前的冲突使得冲突结束后出现这种结果的可能性更大，因为生产商现在正尽可 能多地生产和进行套期保值，"Lekander在一份报告中说。 能源市场正在权衡美国直接卷入冲突的可能性，以及出现重大供应中断的潜力——特别是最坏的情况， 例如伊朗封锁连接波斯湾与阿曼湾的、具有高度战略意义的霍尔木兹海峡。 石油经纪商P ...

Group 1 - The former chief economist of the Bank of Japan, Seisaku Kameda, indicated that unless there is a dramatic positive turn in U.S. tariff issues, the Bank of Japan may delay interest rate hikes this year [1][2] - The Bank of Japan's May report downgraded inflation expectations, citing uncertainty in U.S. trade policy impacting the export-dependent economy, leading to a forecast of stagnant core inflation [1][2] - Japan's exports fell for the first time in eight years in May, primarily due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on companies like Toyota, which could further pressure Japan's fragile economic recovery [1] Group 2 - Kameda noted that the lack of progress in trade negotiations and insufficient data to assess tariff impacts means the Bank of Japan is unlikely to make significant adjustments to growth and inflation forecasts in the upcoming report [2] - The Bank of Japan's forecast for core consumer inflation is 2.2% until March 2026, slowing to 1.7% the following year, with the timing of the next interest rate hike dependent on corporate capital expenditure and wage increases [2] - The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rates and decided to slow down the reduction of its balance sheet, reflecting a cautious policy stance due to escalating Middle East conflicts and U.S. tariffs [2]

在特朗普两届总统任期中，他往往在最棘手的国家安全决策前出现"即兴表演"，完全不同于多数总统在 派兵参战前所需的复杂兵棋推演与舆论铺垫。鉴于美国攻击伊朗核设施可能引发的严重后果，特朗普在 镜头前和网络上的模糊独白与模棱两可的评论，显得轻率甚至敷衍。 但这就是他的行事方式——让盟友与对手都捉摸不透。他坚信，"不可预测性"和"波动性"（多数总统在 国家安全危机中极力避免的因素）是他的关键优势。 "可能会，也可能不会"，特朗普在被问及是否会对伊朗动武时如是说。人们不知道他会如何抉择，而事 实上，他自己也未必清楚。 这本身就令人不安，而鉴于华盛顿曾因"震慑"行动后规划不足而陷入泥潭的灾难性历史，如今的做法无 异于铤而走险。特朗普的连环谎言与"焦土式"的领导风格意味着，数百万美国人需要更多的东西来相信 任何发动军事行动的决定，而远不止需要他的一句承诺。 特朗普的计划或许是个谜，但他的算计很简单：是否利用美国独有的掩体爆破能力，加入以色列对伊朗 的袭击，试图摧毁其核计划。这是艰难的抉择，潜在后果包括：伊朗攻击中东美军基地、针对美国目标 的恐怖袭击、伊朗政权崩溃可能引发的全球动荡。 最新动态令人担忧：第三艘美军航母战斗群正驶 ...

Core Points - The recent Israeli attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities have escalated tensions in the Middle East, potentially destabilizing the region and undermining ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations [1][2] - Gulf countries, historically adversarial to Iran, are now reconsidering their positions and the implications of a prolonged conflict, particularly regarding their oil infrastructure and economic development plans [1][2][8] Group 1: Regional Dynamics - Gulf nations have been attempting to ease tensions with Iran, including offering billions in investments to facilitate nuclear agreements, but are now facing the reality of a potential long-term conflict [1][2] - The surprise Israeli military action has left Arab states shocked, as they misjudged the U.S. administration's ability to restrain Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu [2][3] - The fear of a broader conflict has led Gulf states to evaluate the potential fallout from the collapse of Iran's regime, recalling the chaos following the Arab Spring and the 2003 Iraq invasion [2][8] Group 2: Economic Implications - Oil prices have surged approximately 10% to over $76 per barrel since the escalation, which could impact Gulf countries' budgets positively, but the overall economic outlook remains uncertain due to potential disruptions [2][6] - The Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit route, could see significant disruptions if Iran decides to close it, with predictions that oil prices could spike to $130 per barrel [6][8] Group 3: Nuclear Concerns - Gulf states are particularly worried about potential Israeli strikes on Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant, which could lead to radioactive contamination affecting water supplies [7] - The Gulf Cooperation Council has activated its emergency management center to monitor radiation levels and coordinate responses to the escalating situation [7] Group 4: Diplomatic Efforts - Gulf nations, including the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, are actively trying to leverage their influence and relationships with the U.S. to restore diplomatic negotiations with Iran [3][10] - Despite Iran's willingness to return to nuclear talks if Israeli attacks cease, it has not committed to halting uranium enrichment, complicating the diplomatic landscape [3][4]

Group 1 - The Bank of England is expected to maintain the policy interest rate at 4.25% during the upcoming meeting, with market expectations for two rate cuts within the year [2][3] - Recent disappointing employment data and slowing wage growth are paving the way for potential rate cuts in August and November [3][4] - Wage growth in the private sector has decreased from 6% to nearly 5%, indicating a real cooling of wage pressures [5] Group 2 - The overall inflation situation in the UK remains challenging, with CPI expected to stay above 3% for the year [5] - Service sector inflation rose to 5.4% in April, primarily due to road tax increases and the timing of Easter, but is expected to decrease in the coming months [5][6] - ING predicts that the Bank of England will cut rates again in November, with a final rate of 3.25% by 2026, slightly below market pricing [10] Group 3 - Voting on rate decisions may show some division, with a possibility of a few officials supporting a rate cut this month [6][7] - The meeting is anticipated to result in a vote of 7 to 2 in favor of maintaining the current rate, with potential for a 6 to 3 outcome [7] - The Bank of England has consistently emphasized a "gradual and cautious" approach to monetary policy, which is expected to be reiterated in the upcoming statement [8]

Group 1 - Israeli President Isaac Herzog stated that Israel does not seek regime change in Iran, but aims to eliminate its nuclear capabilities [1] - Herzog emphasized that the true goal is to destroy Iran's nuclear program, accusing Iran of deceiving the international community and rushing to develop nuclear weapons [1][2] - The Israeli airstrikes have reportedly had a substantial impact on Iran's nuclear program, with Herzog claiming that sometimes strong measures are necessary to eliminate imminent threats [2] Group 2 - The G7 has expressed support for Israel, condemning Iran as a major source of regional instability and terrorism, while China condemned Israel's actions [3] - Herzog revealed that Israel has been planning the recent attacks for months and shared intelligence with the U.S. regarding Iran's nuclear advancements [3] - The airstrikes have established Israeli dominance in areas housing major Iranian nuclear facilities, with significant damage reported at sites like Natanz [4] Group 3 - Herzog suggested that the conflict could significantly weaken the Iranian regime, potentially leading to its collapse, which might alter the regional landscape and end the ongoing war in Gaza [5] - Analysts have warned that U.S. intervention could escalate the conflict and provoke Iranian attacks on U.S. military bases and oil infrastructure in the Gulf, potentially impacting global markets [5]

Group 1 - The core sentiment in the gold market remains bullish, but there are increasing downward risks as market sentiment is extremely optimistic, raising concerns among fund managers [1] - According to a recent Bank of America fund manager survey, 41% of respondents indicated that "long gold" is currently the most crowded trade for the third consecutive month, although this sentiment has declined from its peak in May [1] - 20% of fund managers view "shorting the dollar" as the third most crowded position in the global market [2] Group 2 - The survey indicates that the main contrarian trades currently are long dollar and short gold, with 13% of fund managers believing gold will be one of the best-performing assets over the next five years, while 54% believe international stocks will outperform during this period [3] - Investor sentiment has improved, with only 36% of participants expecting a recession in the U.S., down from 44% in April, and 66% anticipating a soft landing for the economy [3] - Despite recent speculative risks, the survey highlights some potential long-term positive trends for gold, with 59% of respondents expecting the U.S. government funding bill to fail, while 81% anticipate an increase in the government budget deficit [3] Group 3 - Analysts note that despite a significant weakening of the dollar index, many commodity analysts believe gold is not at risk from a potential bullish resurgence of the dollar, as the negative correlation between gold and the dollar has diminished [4] - Bank of America commodity analysts reiterated that gold could potentially reach $4,000 per ounce this year due to ongoing concerns about the growing government deficit [4] - Analysts suggest that while gold has been viewed as a crowded trade in recent months, historically, it has not consistently attracted investor attention, and there is still growth potential as gold-backed ETF holdings remain significantly below the historical highs set in 2020 [4]

美联储官员在北京时间周四凌晨宣布维持利率稳定的同时，为下半年降息敞开了大门，但表示他们并不 急于降息。 《华尔街日报》著名记者，素有"美联储传声筒"、"美联储通讯社"之称的Nick Timiraos连发两篇文章点 评此次美联储FOMC利率决议。以下是他的主要看法： 要恢复去年开始的降息，美联储官员可能需要看到劳动力市场走软，或者有更有力的证据表明关税引发 的物价上涨将相对温和。最新公布的预测显示，官员们对是否能在秋季之前获得这些证据持开放态度。 新的利率预测凸显了参加会议的19位美联储官员之间的分歧。其中10位官员预计今年将至少降息两次， 这一比例较3月份有所缩小，2位官员则预计将降息一次。同时，有7位官员表示今年不会有任何降息， 而3月份持此观点的只有4人。 经济预测显示，官员们预计今年的通胀率和失业率上升幅度将超过3月份的预测。 对于美联储来说，这次的经济预测可能是一个混乱的组合，因为它可能迫使官员们在通过降低利率来重 点支撑劳动力市场，还是通过保持利率不变来抵御更高的通胀率之间做出选择。 目前，美联储在设定利率时并不着眼于帮助管理联邦借贷支出，而是专注于维持低而稳定的通胀和强劲 的劳动力市场。美联储之所 ...

Group 1 - Steve Eisman warns that a failure in tariff negotiations could lead to a global recession, emphasizing that tariffs are the "only real risk" in the current market [1] - A survey by Bank of America indicates that 47% of fund managers view a recession triggered by a trade war as the biggest "tail risk" for the market [1] - Despite improved trade relations between the US and the UK, the EU remains a significant challenge in the trade negotiations [1] Group 2 - Eisman compares the current trade environment to the situation before World War I, suggesting that while no one desires a trade war, it could still occur [2] - The complexity of negotiations with the EU is highlighted, with Eisman describing it as "managing a group of cats" due to the need to balance agendas among 27 member states [2] - Former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross warns that the Trump administration may become overconfident due to previous negotiation progress, potentially leading to unrealistic demands in EU talks [2]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time, indicating a potential slowdown in future rate cuts and projecting "considerably high inflation" in the coming months [3][10] - The dot plot shows an increase in the number of officials expecting no rate cuts this year, rising to seven, while the forecast for next year's cuts has been reduced to one [10] Group 2: Market Performance - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.1%, S&P 500 down 0.03%, and Nasdaq up 0.13% [4] - European stock indices had varied performances, with Germany's DAX30 down 0.5% and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.11% [4] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell by 1.12%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 1.46% [5] Group 3: Commodity Prices - Spot gold closed at $3,370.20 per ounce, down 0.58%, while spot silver fell 1.16% to $36.72 per ounce [7] - WTI crude oil decreased by 0.93% to $73.07 per barrel, and Brent crude oil fell 1.27% to $76.03 per barrel [7] Group 4: Domestic Financial Developments - The People's Bank of China announced eight significant financial opening measures during the 2025 Lujiazui Forum [10] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) introduced the "1+6" policy measures to deepen reforms, including the establishment of a new Sci-Tech Growth tier [10][13]