日本央行行长表示，该国经济已经顶住了美国关税的冲击，这支持了市场对于日本央行在下周关键会议 上加息的预期。 日本国债收益率近几个月稳步上升，自11月中旬以来攀升得更为剧烈，当时首相高市早苗公布了通过增 加政府支出来刺激经济的计划。这些计划将包括发行750亿美元的新债券。 周一，10年期日本国债收益率达到了自2008年全球金融危机爆发前以来的最高水平，而30年期和40年期 国债收益率今年均创下历史新高。植田表示，实现中长期财政可持续性是政府的工作。 自上周以来，日元兑美元汇率有所走强。投资者押注，日本央行的利率举措部分旨在防止日元进一步贬 值。自4月以来，日元兑美元汇率已下跌超过10%。 今年早些时候，对美国关税将重创日本经济的担忧曾让日本央行在加息问题上持谨慎态度，但植田表 示，征税的影响比预期的要小。"到目前为止，美国企业已经自行消化了关税负担，没有完全转嫁给消 费者价格，"他说。 在日本方面，植田表示，汽车出口商已通过降价来消化关税，这"稳住了汽车出口量"并避免了日本国内 的失业问题。 日本财务大臣片山皋月周二在对记者表示，她正在"非常密切地"关注市场趋势，因为基准10年期日本国 债收益率正逼近2%。 在 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is set to hold its final two-day meeting of the year, with a significant portion of members potentially opposing a rate cut [2] - Chairman Jerome Powell appears prepared to push for a rate cut, aiming to reduce dissent among committee members by signaling a cautious approach to future easing [3] - The decision to cut rates may hinge on recent assessments of the labor market and inflation, with Powell noting signs of labor market loosening and a lack of significant inflationary pressures [3] Group 2 - There is a growing divide among policymakers regarding the appropriateness of a rate cut, with some expressing concerns about persistent inflation and the adequacy of current rates to drive it down [4] - The upcoming release of employment and inflation data post-meeting could significantly reshape economic outlooks, as recent job growth has been strong but accompanied by rising unemployment [4] - The debate centers on whether slowing job growth reflects weak labor demand, supporting a rate cut, or is due to a contraction in labor supply, opposing a cut [4] Group 3 - Citigroup's chief economist Nathan Sheets leans towards not cutting rates, indicating a close call with no catastrophic outcomes expected from either decision [5] - The challenge for Powell will be to set policy thresholds for January based on more comprehensive data available at that time, complicating the decision-making process [5] - The proximity of current rates to the "neutral level" raises questions about the rationale for maintaining stability unless inflation declines or the labor market weakens significantly [6] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve is expected to release new economic forecasts, which may reveal members' expectations for rate cuts through 2026, amidst political pressures from President Trump [6] - Trump's attempts to influence the Fed's composition could lead to a more politically driven approach to rate cuts, raising concerns about the independence of the institution [7] - Analysts suggest that a more politicized Fed may pursue aggressive rate cuts, potentially leading to conflicts with committee members' tolerance levels [7]

Group 1 - The European Union's tech regulatory body imposed a fine of €120 million (approximately $140 million) on Elon Musk's social media company X for violating online content rules [3] - U.S. President Trump criticized the EU's decision, calling it a "harsh penalty" and expressed confusion over the justification for such action [2][3] - Musk dismissed the fine, referring to the EU's announcement as "nonsense" and shared criticisms of the decision on social media [4] Group 2 - U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and FCC Chairman Brendan Carr, condemned the EU's actions as an attack on American businesses [5] - The EU's regulatory body stated that X violated transparency obligations, including refusal to grant public data access to researchers and incomplete advertising library information [5] - EU Digital Affairs Chief Henna Virkkunen defended the fine as appropriate, asserting that the Digital Services Act (DSA) is not related to censorship [5][6]

2025年，在地缘政治风险、降息和央行需求的推动下，金价飙升超过60%。许多专家认为2026年还有进 一步上涨的空间，黄金作为避险资产的地位依然稳固。 在经历了历史性的2025年，即金价飙升超过60%并打破了50多项历史新高之后，投资者现在的注意力转 向了这种贵金属能否在2026年维持其上升轨迹。 黄金在年初至今的表现中领跑主要资产类别，有望创下自1979年以来的最佳年度表现，尽管风险依然存 在，但专家们认为黄金明年可能仍有上涨空间。 与往年由单一事件主导金价走势不同，今年出现了多重驱动因素共同作用的局面。 持续的央行买入、持续的地缘政治摩擦、高企的贸易不确定性、较低的利率以及美元走弱，所有这些因 素结合在一起，助推了市场对作为避险资产的黄金的需求。 根据世界黄金协会的最新报告，地缘政治紧张局势对黄金年初至今的表现贡献了约12个百分点，而美元 疲软和略低的利率又贡献了10个百分点，动能和投资者仓位占了9个点，经济扩张进一步贡献了10个 点。 各国央行也继续大举买入，使官方部门的需求保持在远高于疫情前的水平。世界黄金协会的预测 展望未来，该协会预计，推动2025年金价非凡反弹的许多力量在2026年仍将发挥作用。 ...

Core Insights - The capital influx into AI infrastructure is far from peaking, with major tech giants competing aggressively, benefiting "picks and shovels" suppliers like chip manufacturers and energy producers [2][3] - AI-related capital expenditures are surging without signs of slowing down, driving significant market rebounds despite investor skepticism about sustainability [2][3] - Nvidia's GPU chips are central to the AI revolution, briefly making it the first company to surpass a market capitalization of $5 trillion, sparking discussions about an AI bubble [2] - Major companies like Amazon and Meta are allocating budgets of hundreds of billions annually for AI-related investments, indicating a long-term procurement trend across the tech industry [3] Industry Trends - The demand for electricity from data centers is expected to double by 2030, driven by large-scale, enterprise-level, and cryptocurrency mining facilities [3] - Leading tech companies are just beginning to tap into capital markets for the next phase of AI expansion, suggesting more capital is on the way [3] - The competitive mindset among major tech firms drives accelerated spending, even at the risk of over-investment, as they strive to avoid being outpaced in the market [3] Investment Opportunities - Companies involved in chip manufacturing, energy production, and copper wire manufacturing are expected to see positive surprises that could drive stock prices up in the coming year [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is expected to focus on interest rate trends and the state of the U.S. economy, with a high probability of a third rate cut this year. Additionally, updates regarding the Fed's asset portfolio may be announced following the conclusion of the balance sheet reduction process on December 1 [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - In October, the Federal Reserve announced plans to reinvest the principal of maturing Treasury and mortgage-backed securities into short-term Treasury bills to address pressures in the repo market, although this measure has not fully resolved the issues [1]. - Overnight rates have frequently exceeded the Fed's target range, indicating that banks continue to rely on the central bank's liquidity support tools, such as the standing repo facility [2][1]. - The Fed is expected to announce a "reserve management purchase" plan of approximately $45 billion per month to maintain order in the repo market and ensure smooth transmission of monetary policy [1]. Group 2: Balance Sheet Expansion Debate - The future trajectory of the Fed's balance sheet is viewed as increasingly uncertain, despite expectations of expansion due to pressures in the repo market [3]. - There are significant disagreements within the Fed regarding how to implement the ample reserves policy, raising doubts about the inevitability of balance sheet expansion [4]. - Dallas Fed President Logan has expressed support for a more flexible approach to balance sheet expansion, suggesting that the scale and timing of reserve management purchases should not be mechanical [4]. Group 3: Regulatory Considerations - The argument for reducing the Fed's influence on the economy through a smaller balance sheet is gaining traction, particularly from figures like Stephen Miran, who advocate for regulatory reforms to alleviate pressures in the repo market [5][6]. - Miran has criticized the "regulatory dominance" that leads to banks holding excessive reserves, suggesting that relaxing capital rules for Treasury securities could reduce the required reserve levels [5]. - Current regulatory adjustments under Fed Governor Bowman aim to allow banks to hold more Treasuries without additional capital requirements, potentially increasing capacity by approximately $2.1 trillion [6]. Group 4: Future Implications - The anticipated changes in regulatory frameworks and the potential for a new Fed chair next year could further alleviate pressures in the repo market and allow for lower reserve levels [7]. - These adjustments align with the previous administration's goal of increasing private sector involvement, although they carry risks of increasing bank size and leverage [7].

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 欧洲央行再次要求意大利重新考虑将其黄金储备宣布为人民财产的举动，批评人士称这可能为政府抛售 黄金打开大门，并危及央行的独立性。 在周一的一份法律意见书中，管委会敦促梅洛尼政府审查该提案，此前意大利财政部请求欧洲央行研究 该计划的更新版本。 欧洲央行重申了上周在一份意见中提出的反对观点，强调"尽管修订后的草案条款引入了变更，但欧洲 央行仍不清楚修订后草案条款的具体目的究竟是什么。"该机构表示： "鉴于此，且在缺乏对修订草案条款目的任何解释的情况下，我们请意大利当局重新考虑修 订后的草案条款，这也是为了维护意大利央行根据条约履行与欧洲中央银行体系（ESCB） 相关的基本任务时的独立性。" 意大利央行持有约2452吨黄金，是仅次于美国和德国的第三大黄金储备国。随着近期金价上涨，梅洛尼 所在的中右翼政党的一些立法者提议对国家即将出台的预算进行修正，确认储备由央行管理和持有， 但"属于意大利人民"。 法律规定，意大利央行按照欧盟规则管理这些黄金储备，而欧盟规则禁止使用黄金为政府支出提供资 金。 梅洛尼所在的意大利兄弟党曾多次提出对该国储备进行政治控制的问题，极右 ...

摩根大通分析师在9月的一份报告中告知客户，过去两年，与人工智能相关的公司贡献了标普500指数约 75%的回报。尽管对人工智能泡沫的担忧日益加剧，但这一趋势尚无消退迹象。 美联储宽松政策助力 美联储在9月和10月实施了降息，市场普遍预期本周还将再次降息，这一举措通过降低企业借贷成本、 支撑高企的股票估值，进一步利好股市。奥本海默表示，美联储降息是标普500指数上涨的主要催化剂 之一。 奥本海默市场策略师约翰·斯托尔茨弗斯（John Stoltzfus）周一在给客户的报告中写道："要实现我们 2026年的目标价，核心在于货币政策、财政政策，以及创新与企业盈利增长的持续推进——这些因素均 已对股价形成支撑，也是明年盈利和营收增长的关键。" 这位策略师还称，前景进一步向好的一点是，若通胀保持可控，美联储明年"可能会再将基准利率下调 一到两次"。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 三家华尔街券商发布的新年股市展望，均传递出一致的看涨信号：美股即将迎来大幅上涨。奥本海默 （Oppenheimer）预测，标普500指数到2026年底将飙升至8100点，较上周五收盘价上涨18%。沃尔夫 研究（Wolf ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 投资者加大了对欧元区明年可能加息的押注，而预计美国则将继续降低借贷成本，这一转变可能进一步拖累本已疲软的美元。 互换市场定价目前显示，欧洲央行2026年加息的可能性高于降息。相比之下，普遍被认为在周三下次会议上几乎肯定会降息的美联储，明年预计还将再降息 至少两次。 投资者还押注，随着经济好转，澳洲联储和加拿大央行明年将加息，而英国央行则被广泛预期将在明年夏天前结束降息周期。 道明证券（TD Securities）的普贾·库姆拉（Pooja Kumra）将明年描述为欧洲央行、加拿大央行和澳洲联储的潜在"转折点"，并补充道："鹰派声音愈发响 亮。" 尽管这一转变可能会缩小美国与其他国家的利差，但借贷成本的相反走势可能会加剧美元的下跌——美元今年以来兑一篮子货币已下跌逾8%。 目前，欧元区和其他几个主要经济体的利率低于美国，部分原因是它们的经济增长更为缓慢。 但欧洲央行和其他央行的政策制定者似乎不太可能进一步降息以刺激增长，因特朗普的贸易战对美国贸易伙伴的损害已被证明低于此前预期。 互换市场定价目前显示，到明年年底，欧洲央行平均将加息0.08个百分点。相比之 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming nomination of the Federal Reserve Chair by President Trump is expected to have a more profound long-term impact on the central bank than immediate market reactions suggest [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The market is focused on the expectation that the new chair will be more inclined to lower interest rates than the current chair, Jerome Powell [1]. - Kevin Hassett is highlighted as a leading candidate, perceived as the most dovish option among the five shortlisted candidates [1]. - If Hassett is appointed, it could lead to adjustments in market pricing, including lower short-term Treasury yields, a weaker dollar, and rising inflation expectations [1]. Group 2: Challenges for the New Chair - Any new chair will require time to establish authority within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is currently divided and lacks a unified strategic vision [2]. - The new chair will face challenges related to the committee's reliance on lagging data for policy decisions, complicating the resolution of issues like labor market weaknesses [2]. - The committee members are sensitive to accusations of yielding to political pressure, which may lead to resistance against a new chair's initiatives [2]. Group 3: Need for Reform - There is a pressing need for reform within the Federal Reserve, as recent years have seen failures in analysis, forecasting, policy execution, and communication [2][3]. - A Gallup poll indicates that only 9% of Americans rate the Federal Reserve's performance as "excellent," highlighting the need for improvements to maintain its independence [3]. - The new chair must implement reforms that include clarifying inflation targets, updating communication practices, enhancing accountability, and shifting focus from demand management to supply-side development [3].