"无论是过剩，还是超级过剩，这都是难以回避的，"Rahim在公司发布年度业绩时如是说。 大宗商品贸易巨头托克（Trafigura）的首席经济学家Saad Rahim表示，随着新增供应的爆发与全球经济 疲软相碰撞，明年石油市场将面临"超级过剩"。据Rahim称，新的钻探项目和需求增长放缓将进一步压 低明年本已低迷的原油价格。 布伦特原油今年已下跌16%，势将创下自2020年以来的最差年度表现。预计随着包括巴西和圭亚那在内 的主要项目明年投产，原油价格将受到进一步压制。 供应过剩论并非新鲜事，过去一年里，花旗和高盛等银行已将其普及。高盛分析师Daan Struyven也在其 最新的石油追踪报告中所写，"过去30天内，全球可见石油库存增加了近200万桶/日。"这些银行预计， 未来几年库存还将显著增长。 美国政府也一直试图维持低油价，美国总统特朗普已承诺"钻探，宝贝，钻探"（drill, baby, drill），以 推动增加美国产量。也有猜测称美国将补充其战略石油储备（SPR），该储备在拜登任内已大部分被掏 空，但由于这会迅速推高价格，因此目前这纯属猜测，而与此同时，美国几乎没有任何储备来应对真正 的紧急情况。 托 ...

欧盟各国将快速推进一项决议，计划无限期冻结至多2100亿欧元的俄罗斯主权资产。此举旨在于下周欧 洲领导人峰会召开前，绕开匈牙利总理欧尔班·维克托（Viktor Orbán）的阻挠。 匈牙利是欧盟内部最亲俄的国家，反对向基辅提供任何进一步援助，并频繁威胁要否决制裁延期。欧盟 官员担忧，若特朗普政府决定单方面取消美国对俄制裁，欧尔班可能会兑现这一威胁。 匈牙利政府发言人佐尔坦·科瓦奇（Zoltán Kovács）本周表示，欧盟委员会的贷款提案"越过了所有红 线"。 为规避制裁被取消的风险，欧盟委员会提议动用专用于应对经济危机的紧急权力，对这些资产实施无限 期制裁。该权力依据欧盟条约第122条启用，只需多数欧盟国家同意即可通过，从而绕过潜在的否决 权。 据知情官员透露，这项立法的仓促推进——援引紧急权力推翻各国在制裁延期问题上的否决权——目的 是维护布鲁塞尔在美国主导的俄乌和平谈判中的影响力。 负责该立法的外交官认为，在未来几天迅速采取行动，将冻结资产这一棘手问题与利用冻结的俄罗斯资 金为基辅筹集贷款的辩论分开，是明智之举。而贷款相关事宜将留待下周欧盟领导人峰会处理。 欧盟计划在本周内进行投票，打破制裁决策需"一致 ...

Group 1 - The market widely expects Kevin Hassett to be nominated as the next Federal Reserve Chair, but only 11% believe he should be appointed [1] - Christopher Waller is the preferred candidate with 47% support, followed by Kevin Warsh at 23%, yet only 5% think Trump will nominate either [1] - Concerns about Hassett focus on his commitment to the Fed's dual mandate and independence, with 76% believing the next chair will be more dovish than Jerome Powell [3] Group 2 - There is a significant divide on whether the Fed should cut rates, with 87% expecting a rate cut but only 45% believing it should happen [3] - Economic growth expectations are rising, with GDP growth projected at 2% this year and slightly higher next year, while inflation is expected to remain above the 2% target [5] - "Persistent high inflation" has become the top economic risk, with concerns about the potential stimulus effects of record tax refunds in 2026 [6] Group 3 - Despite concerns about a potential AI bubble, respondents predict a 6% increase in the S&P 500 next year and another 6% in 2027, with 90% believing AI stocks are overvalued [8] - Systemic risk in the U.S. credit market is perceived to have slightly increased, rising from 53% to 60% [8]

作者：朱宇，金十数据 本周的美联储政策会议预计将是多年以来争议最大的一次，它更像是一场针对金融市场的压力测试，以 此观察2026年美国货币政策的辩论将呈现何种走向。 摩根士丹利、摩根大通和美国银行等投资银行纷纷做出反应，修正了其预测，认为12月9日至10日的会 议将会降息。 然而，分析师预计，在FOMC的12名票委中，多达5人将持有不同意见，这进一步强化了市场中关于美 联储正变得愈发政治化的论调。 自2019年以来，该政策委员会从未在单次会议中出现过三张或以上的反对票，而这种情况自1990年以来 也仅发生过九次。分析师目前预计，这种分歧局面将会持续下去。 苏格兰长线投资管理公司Baillie Gifford的全球债券主管Sally Greig表示："你看到的分歧越多，且这种分 歧越公开，就越让人质疑美联储在多大程度上愿意变得更加政治化。这就引发了疑问：美联储到底多倾 向于'宁鸽勿鹰'，以换取自身的安宁？他们对丢掉饭碗的恐惧，究竟有多深？" 特朗普提名的美联储七人理事会成员一直倾向于鸽派。他的经济顾问凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）是明 年接替美联储主席鲍威尔的热门人选，他已呼吁降低利率。另一位特朗普 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that silver has reached a historic high of over $60 per ounce, driven by trader bets on further easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and ongoing supply tightness, with a year-to-date increase of over $31 or 108% [1] - Silver's performance has significantly outpaced gold, with the gold-silver ratio dropping to 69, the lowest level since July 2021 [1] - Suki Cooper from Standard Chartered Bank notes that while silver's price momentum is supported by strong fundamentals, normalization of traditional market dynamics may lead to short-term volatility [1] Group 2 - Cooper indicates that despite some alleviation in supply chain issues, market uncertainty remains, with an increase in London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) inventories and a decrease in Chinese stocks [2] - Year-to-date, LBMA inventories have increased by 1,447 tons, while Comex inventories have risen by 4,311 tons, with most inventory still in London [2] - The short-term silver market will be driven by inflows into exchange-traded products (ETPs), which are experiencing the largest inflows since 2020, with 487 tons added in November and 475 tons in December [2] Group 3 - Cooper summarizes that while the gold-silver ratio remains above the long-term average of 65, the current level indicates silver's recent strong performance and suggests potential short-term corrections [3] - The market is expected to remain volatile, particularly with attention on the S232 critical minerals report, which may exacerbate regional market tensions [3]

神舟二十一号航天员乘组圆满完成第一次出舱活动 男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 特朗普：可能降低部分价格过高的商品关税 英媒：特朗普本周启动美联储主席人选的最后一轮面试 英媒：特朗普"施压"泽连斯基几日内回应和平提议 泽连斯基首次松口愿意选举 据悉SpaceX拟以1.5万亿美元估值进行IPO 李强分别会见世界银行、国际货币基金组织、联合国贸易和发展会议负责人 摩尔线程：即将发布新一代GPU架构 市场盘点 周二，美国就业市场数据好于预期，美元指数走高，最终收涨0.14%，报99.24；基准的10年期美债收益率最终收报4.1900%，对美联储政策利率敏感的2年期 美债收益率收报3.6250%。 交易员对美联储降息保持乐观，现货黄金震荡上行，最终收涨0.39%，报4206.59美元/盎司；现货白银在供应紧张的情况下首次达到60美元的里程碑，最终 大涨4.34%，报60.67美元/盎司。 受伊拉克生产恢复的影响，国际油价连续两日走低，WTI原油最终收跌0.78%，报58.28美元/桶；布伦特原油最终收跌 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have reached a historic high of over $60 per ounce, driven by trader bets on further easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and ongoing supply tightness, with a year-to-date increase of over $31 or 108% [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Despite the strong upward trend in silver prices, short-term volatility may be expected due to normalization of traditional market dynamics [3] - The gold-silver ratio has dropped to 69, the lowest level since July 2021, indicating silver's performance has significantly outpaced that of gold [3] - The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) inventory has increased by 1,447 tons year-to-date, while the New York Mercantile Exchange (Comex) inventory has risen by 4,311 tons, with most inventory still held in London [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The recent surge in silver prices has been driven by multiple factors, including global supply chain issues, strong industrial consumption, and renewed investor interest [3] - Although supply chain issues have eased, market uncertainty remains, with a slight decrease in U.S. inventory adding liquidity to the global market [3] - The demand for silver-backed exchange-traded products (ETPs) has seen significant inflows, with 487 tons added in November and another 475 tons in December [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - While silver prices are expected to remain positive, a short-term correction may occur due to the current high gold-silver ratio, which suggests silver may be overbought [5] - The market is closely watching the S232 critical minerals report, which could exacerbate regional market tensions [5]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street banks are preparing to address rising pressures in the money market as the year-end approaches, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to consider measures to rebuild liquidity buffers in a $12.6 trillion market [2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve will hold a meeting this week, marking its first since halting the reduction of its balance sheet, with indications that bank reserves are no longer ample [2] - Analysts suggest that the Fed may need to take specific actions to alleviate market tensions, such as resuming direct purchases of securities to replenish reserves [2] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell may provide clues about the next steps following the monetary policy meeting, with expectations that he will indicate a closer watch on front-end rates and the necessity to increase reserves [2][3] Group 2: Market Conditions - The overnight general collateral repo rate is trading around 4.25%, which is 60 basis points higher than the Fed's interest on reserves balance rate, assuming a 25 basis point rate cut is made [2] - The increase in Treasury issuance since summer has drained cash from the short-term market, leading to reduced funds in the banking system and higher rates [3] - The current level of reserves stands at $2.88 trillion, with differing opinions among Wall Street strategists on when the Fed will need to begin reserve management purchases [3] Group 3: Liquidity Support Tools - The usage of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) reached a record $50.4 billion, indicating difficulties in finding counterparties for cash lending [3][4] - Despite the rise in SRF usage, a series of repo rates still exceed the rates offered by this tool, suggesting ongoing liquidity challenges [4] - Strategists from Bank of America and JPMorgan see this as a sign that the Fed may need to provide short-term liquidity to ease year-end constraints [5] Group 4: Market Operations - JPMorgan's short-term interest rate strategist suggested that the Fed could conduct regular temporary open market operations to address year-end balance sheet demands [5] - The benefits of regular repos include certainty in financing and the ability to lock in year-end funds, which can provide additional confidence to market participants [6]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Predictions - Goldman Sachs anticipates the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates this week while keeping its language open for future adjustments based on employment data [1] - Barclays expects a 25 basis point rate cut to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% this week, with further cuts predicted in March and June of next year [1] - Deutsche Bank predicts a 25 basis point cut this week, with Powell likely emphasizing a high threshold for future cuts in early 2026 [7] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Morgan Stanley suggests that the stock market's upward momentum may stall post-Fed rate cut as investors lock in profits [3] - Nomura has reversed its previous stance, now predicting a 25 basis point cut in December, citing sufficient dovish signals for a "risk management" rate cut [4] - Fitch Ratings forecasts the Fed will maintain rates in December but will cut three times by mid-2026 as economic conditions stabilize [5] Group 3: Gold Price Forecasts - State Street Global Advisors predicts that gold prices may stabilize between $4,000 and $4,500 per ounce in 2026 after a significant rise in 2025 [2] - The ongoing structural trends supporting gold prices are expected to remain intact, making gold an attractive hedge against rising debt and inflation [2] Group 4: Stock Market Predictions - Oppenheimer forecasts an 18% increase in the S&P 500 index, reaching 8,100 points by 2026, driven by strong earnings growth [7] - Russell Investments anticipates a "hawkish" 25 basis point cut from the Fed, with a terminal rate projected between 3.25% and 3.5% [9] Group 5: European Central Bank Insights - The European Central Bank's Schnabel hinted at a potential rate hike rather than a cut, which has strengthened the euro [8]

杰富瑞分析师托马斯·西蒙斯（Thomas Simons）与迈克尔·巴科拉斯（Michael Bacolas）将重点关注鲍威尔是否会说出一个关键短语："处于良好状态（In a good place）"。若他提及该表述，可能意味着其不倾向于明年1月进一步降息；若未使用，则可能为本月后更多降息留有空间。 相反，他们将密切关注美联储在为期两天的会议结束后的官方声明，以及美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会答问时的措辞与语气变化。 "美联储本周沟通的核心，在于鲍威尔会将政策描述为'处于良好状态'（正如2025年初美联储按兵不动时那样），还是重复'适度限制性'或'略高于中性水 平'的表述。若为后者，2026年初进一步降息的大门将持续敞开，"他们在《财富》杂志看到的一份客户报告中表示，"我们预计他不会称政策利率'处于良好 状态'，但这仍是需重点关注的短语。" 根据芝商所美联储观察工具（CME FedWatch Tool）的数据，30天联邦基金利率期货显示，美联储本周再次降息的概率达90%。但华尔街早已消化这一预期 ——标普500指数接近历史高点。事实上，交易员已不再关注降息决策本身（他们视其为既定事实），尽管联邦公开市场委员会（F ...