Core Viewpoint - The Argentine government, led by President Javier Milei, is planning to intervene in the foreign exchange market to support the national currency, the peso, amid a political scandal that is shaking investor confidence and could impact the upcoming parliamentary elections [1][2]. Group 1: Government Actions and Economic Measures - The Milei administration has advocated for a free-market economy and has allowed the peso to float within a set range, but recent actions indicate a shift in policy to curb a sell-off in financial markets [1]. - The government has implemented several measures to combat peso depreciation, including liquidity restrictions on banks and offering interest rates as high as 76% to encourage investors to roll over maturing government debt [1]. - Despite these interventions, the peso continued to decline, and bond prices also fell, with the price of Argentine bonds maturing in 2035 dropping nearly 2 cents to 61 cents per dollar, marking the lowest level since April [1]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Political Context - Investor confidence is fragile, with many viewing the upcoming election cycle as a referendum on Milei's performance during his first two years in office [2]. - The recent political scandal involving Milei's sister has further eroded public support, and local elections in Buenos Aires province are seen as a critical indicator for the national elections scheduled for October 26 [3][2]. - The local elections have raised concerns about Milei's potential setbacks, as candidates supported by his government performed poorly, finishing fourth in the recent Corrientes provincial elections [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The Argentine Finance Minister, Pablo Quirno, announced that the finance ministry would enter the foreign exchange market to promote liquidity, but this did not prevent the peso from falling by 1.6% on the same day [5]. - There are doubts about the government's ability to increase international reserves before the maturity of dollar-denominated bonds in January, as the finance ministry currently holds $1.7 billion in foreign currency deposits, down nearly $300 million since August 11 [5]. - Market expectations suggest that the government's intervention measures may be temporary, aimed at stabilizing the financial market until after the mid-term elections [6].

Group 1 - The demand for the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) tool has dropped to its lowest level in over four years, with 17 participants depositing a total of $21.07 billion [1] - The usage of the RRP tool has decreased significantly from approximately $460 billion at the end of June to the current levels, indicating a trend of declining liquidity in the financing market [3] - The balance of the RRP tool is approaching zero, which could lead to a loss of funds from bank reserves, a critical buffer for market stability [7] Group 2 - The current balance of bank reserves remains at $3.2 trillion, indicating that liquidity is still in a comfortable range despite the pressures from the declining RRP balance [7] - The Federal Reserve's asset balance is currently at $6.6 trillion, and any further liquidity scarcity may necessitate a halt to its long-standing balance sheet reduction process [8] - Market volatility in September may exert upward pressure on money market rates, potentially impacting liquidity, even as the Fed has slowed its monthly balance sheet reduction pace [8]

Group 1: Central Bank and Policy Updates - The central bank reported a net liquidity injection of 300 billion yuan through Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) in August, while 160.8 billion yuan was withdrawn via Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) [1] - A new tax policy was announced to support the transfer of state-owned equity and cash income to the social security fund, including exemptions from VAT and corporate income tax for the receiving entities [1] Group 2: Market Activity and Trends - In August, A-share new account openings reached 2.65 million, a year-on-year increase of 165.21%, significantly surpassing the previous year's figures [2] - The stock of Dongxin Co. will resume trading on September 3 after completing a review due to unusual trading fluctuations [3] - Kedi Co. announced that its robotics business is still in the development stage and has not yet generated revenue [4] Group 3: Company-Specific News - Zhejiang Rongtai responded to rumors regarding Tesla's optimistic production guidance for robots, stating they cannot confirm the accuracy of the information [5] - China National Petroleum Corporation plans to transfer 541 million shares (0.30% of total shares) to China Mobile Group, which will not change the controlling shareholder [6] - BeiGene highlighted the uncertainties in drug development due to the lengthy and costly nature of the biopharmaceutical industry [6] - Heng Rui Medicine received approval for clinical trials of its new anti-tumor drug HRS-7172 [7] - Daoshi Technology announced a $30 million investment in Brain Family Inc. for brain-computer interface technology [8] - Qingdao Bank's major shareholder plans to increase its stake by acquiring 233 million to 291 million shares [8] - Tianpu Co. warned of potential stock suspension if prices continue to rise abnormally [9] - Sailyus reported a 19.57% year-on-year increase in new energy vehicle sales for August [11] - CATL has repurchased 8.69 million shares for a total of 2.131 billion yuan [11] - Zhenyang Development is planning a share swap merger with Zhejiang Huhangyong, with a swap ratio of 1:1.08 [11] - Jingu Co. has developed structural components for intelligent robots using advanced materials, with plans for mass production [12] - Junshi Biosciences received approval for clinical trials of its JT118 injection, a vaccine for monkeypox [12]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Court of Appeals has upheld lower court rulings against Trump's tariff policies, but significant changes to these import tariffs are not expected in the near term, particularly due to the slow judicial process and potential Congressional involvement [1][2]. Group 1: Court Rulings and Implications - The U.S. Court of Appeals ruled that Trump's invocation of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) for tariffs exceeded his authority [1]. - The Supreme Court's decision on this matter is anticipated by June next year, with invalidated tariffs remaining in effect until October 14 for consideration [1]. - Treasury Secretary Yellen plans to draft a legal opinion to defend the legality of the tariffs in preparation for a possible Supreme Court ruling [1]. Group 2: Potential Outcomes and Market Reactions - Trump has indicated plans to expedite the Supreme Court's decision, linking stock market declines to the appellate court's ruling on tariffs [2]. - Analysts suggest two likely scenarios: the Supreme Court may either support Trump's use of IEEPA or allow Congress to pass legislation granting the necessary authority [2]. - Despite a conservative majority in the Supreme Court, some analysts express skepticism about the Trump administration's chances of success [2]. Group 3: Alternative Tariff Options - Analysts highlight that Trump has other tariff authorization channels available, such as Section 122 balance-of-payments tariffs and Section 301 national-security tariffs, which could be implemented in the short term [3][4]. - Section 122 allows for tariffs up to 15% for a maximum of 150 days, while Section 201 tariffs can last up to 8 years with a gradual reduction [3][4]. - The advantage of Sections 122 and 338 is that they do not require investigations, allowing for immediate implementation [4]. Group 4: Impact on Existing Tariffs and Refunds - The court ruling does not affect existing tariffs on imports of automobiles, steel, and aluminum, and the Trump administration plans to impose tariffs on other sectors under investigation [4]. - There is growing concern regarding the possibility of refunds for tariffs already paid, which could become one of the largest refund projects in U.S. history [5]. - Analysts believe that tariff refunds could influence U.S. debt issuance and yield rates [5].

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.55%, the S&P 500 down by 0.69%, and the Nasdaq decreasing by 0.82% [3] - Major European indices also fell, with Germany's DAX30 down by 2.29%, the UK's FTSE 100 down by 0.87%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down by 1.42% [3] - In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index dropped by 0.47% to 25,496.55 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.22% to 5,728.46 points, with a total market turnover of HKD 328.12 billion [4] - The A-share market saw all three major indices decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.45%, the Shenzhen Component down by 2.14%, and the ChiNext Index down by 2.85%, with a total turnover of CNY 2.87 trillion [5] Group 2 - The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China increased by 24% year-on-year in August, reaching 1.3 million units [11] - The gold price reached a new historical high, closing at USD 3,533.43 per ounce, up by 1.64% [6] - WTI crude oil prices rose by 1.46% to USD 65.37 per barrel, while Brent crude oil increased by 1.38% to USD 69 per barrel [6] - The semiconductor sector in Hong Kong faced significant declines, with companies like Hua Hong Semiconductor and SMIC dropping over 4% and 5% respectively [4]

Core Insights - The report from DE Shaw highlights the unique challenges of modeling gold as a non-productive store of value, emphasizing its lack of yield and industrial use, and the potential risk of it becoming worthless if society no longer assigns value to it [1][2] Group 1: Wealth Growth and Gold Valuation - The growth rate of global wealth is projected to outpace economic growth by 2.4 percentage points over the past 50 years, suggesting an annual growth of approximately 5% for wealth if global GDP grows at 3% [2] - Gold supply has historically increased by about 1.6% annually, but central bank purchases during geopolitical tensions could offset this supply growth [2] Group 2: Return Assumptions and Correlation - DE Shaw's return assumption for gold is set at 0.5% above the inflation-adjusted risk-free rate, with a volatility estimate of around 15%, consistent with historical averages [2] - The correlation of gold with stocks and bonds is low over the long term, which may enhance its utility in a portfolio primarily composed of these traditional assets [3] Group 3: Portfolio Allocation - The optimal allocation of gold in a portfolio is influenced by the correlation between stocks and bonds; if they are positively correlated, the ideal allocation is 9%, while a negative correlation suggests a 6.5% allocation [3] - Current correlations between stocks and bonds have been nearly zero over the past 12 months, complicating the assessment of gold's portfolio utility [3]

自1981年以来，美国已发生过14次部分政府关门，其中大部分只持续一两天。最近一次发生在特朗普的 第一任期内，从2018年12月持续到2019年1月，长达34天。 特朗普的共和党在众议院以219对212席占多数，在参议院以53对47席占优势，但参议院的规则要求大多 数法案需要60票才能通过，这意味着通过一项拨款法案将需要七名民主党人的支持。 一场先发制人的"甩锅游戏"已于今夏开始，并在争论如果国会失败导致部分政府关门，哪一方应承担责 任。 在共和党人批准特朗普削减90亿美元对外援助和公共媒体资金的请求之前，参议院少数党领袖查克·舒 默（Chuck Schumer）在7月份的一封信中表示，由于共和党削减了国会已批准的资金，多数党不应期望 民主党在两党拨款程序中"一切如常"。 美国国会将于周二复会，留给它履行其核心职能之一，即维持联邦机构资金运转并避免部分政府关门的 时间已不足一个月，而这项工作近年来已变得越来越难以完成。 在特朗普总统新一届政府的第一年里，国会激烈的党派分歧已经加剧，特朗普政府决定不支出先前在两 党协议下批准的部分资金，以及7月份通过的一项减税法案，这些都激怒了民主党议员，无党派分析人 士称该法 ...

Group 1: Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Market - Global spot Bitcoin ETFs currently hold 7% of the Bitcoin supply, approximately 1.5 million BTC [1] - Bitcoin's average decline in September is about 6%, with potential ETF fund outflows or stock market sell-offs possibly pushing BTC to around $100,000 [2] - Bitcoin's market capitalization has fallen below silver, ranking it as the 8th major asset globally, with a market cap of $2.183 trillion [6] Group 2: Regulatory Developments - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has received 77 expressions of interest for stablecoin licenses, with only a few expected to be granted in the initial phase [1] - The European Securities and Markets Authority warns that tokenized stocks may mislead retail investors regarding ownership rights [2] - South Korea plans to share cryptocurrency transaction information with 47 countries to enhance tax transparency and prevent cross-border tax evasion [7] Group 3: Company Initiatives - RAK Properties in the UAE will start accepting cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum for international real estate transactions [3][5] - Zhong An Smart Life is collaborating with a licensed virtual asset operating platform in Hong Kong to explore cryptocurrency asset custody and configuration [7]

Group 1 - UBS analysts suggest that the European Central Bank's rate-cutting cycle may have ended, with expectations to maintain the deposit rate at 2% during the September policy meeting. This is based on anticipated large-scale fiscal stimulus from the EU, including increased defense spending and infrastructure investment in Germany, which are expected to support the economy starting in early 2026 [1] - Saxo Bank reports that silver prices have surpassed $40 per ounce for the first time since September 2011, driven by macroeconomic support, industrial demand growth, and supply shortages. The current price is $40.70 per ounce, with expectations that rising US rate cut expectations will continue to boost silver alongside gold [1] - ING analysts indicate that the upcoming US non-farm payroll report will significantly influence gold prices, which have been on an upward trend. A weak report could strengthen the view that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates in September [2][3] Group 2 - MUFG analysts predict that a weak US non-farm payroll report could lead to further declines in the dollar and potentially prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 50 basis points in September, with current market expectations leaning towards a 25 basis point cut [3] - Societe Generale highlights that the pound is facing downward pressure due to high inflation and low growth in the UK, presenting challenges for the Bank of England's policy [5] - CICC forecasts that US inflation pressures may continue to rise, suggesting that if rate cuts occur during high inflation periods, it could lead to a steepening of the yield curve, with the 10-year rate potentially reaching 4.8% by year-end [6] Group 3 - Huatai Securities emphasizes that the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September could drive down real interest rates, benefiting gold investments. They suggest that unless the US economy returns to a high-growth, low-inflation scenario, the upward trend in gold prices may persist [6] - CITIC Securities notes that the recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD may require additional catalysts to break the 7 level, with current market conditions providing support for the currency [7] - CITIC Securities also indicates that the bond market's pricing may reflect a more dominant domestic influence, suggesting that the relationship between equity and bond markets is not necessarily oppositional [8] Group 4 - CITIC Jinpu reports that lithium carbonate production in China reached a new high of over 85,000 tons in August, with a 5% month-on-month increase and a 39% year-on-year increase. The downstream demand is entering a traditional peak season, providing support for lithium prices [9]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's Model YL has been launched in China, targeting the six-seat SUV market amidst increasing competition from domestic electric vehicle brands, marking a strategic move to counteract declining market performance [2][5][10]. Group 1: Market Context - The six-seat SUV market in China is becoming increasingly competitive, with new models from domestic brands like Li Auto, NIO, and Huawei entering the space [2][5]. - The demand for six-seat SUVs is driven by changing family structures, with 33.7% of families having two or more children as of 2023, up nearly 10 percentage points since 2016 [6]. Group 2: Product Launch and Reception - Model YL was launched with a starting price of 339,000 yuan, and within a week, it reportedly received close to 80,000 orders, indicating strong market interest [4][10]. - Initial customer feedback has been positive, with some stores reporting sales exceeding targets by 300% on launch day [3][4]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Model YL faces stiff competition in terms of pricing and features, with rivals like Li Auto's i8 priced at 321,800 yuan and NIO's L90 starting at 265,800 yuan, making Model YL's pricing less competitive [6][7]. - In terms of features, competitors offer more advanced comfort options, while Model YL maintains a minimalist design [7]. Group 4: Performance Metrics - Model YL boasts a CLTC range of 751 kilometers and an energy consumption of 12.8 kWh per 100 kilometers, which is competitive compared to rivals [8]. - The vehicle's production is currently limited to Tesla's Shanghai factory, focusing solely on the domestic market without plans for overseas sales [9]. Group 5: Financial Implications - Tesla's recent financial performance has shown significant declines, with Q2 revenue dropping 12% year-over-year to $22.496 billion, marking the largest quarterly decline since 2012 [10][11]. - The introduction of Model YL is seen as a crucial step for Tesla to revitalize its sales in China, where its market share has decreased from 15% in 2020 to 7.6% in 2025 [11][12]. Group 6: Future Outlook - Tesla plans to introduce a budget version of Model Y by late 2025, which may help regain market share in the competitive lower price segment [12]. - The success of Model YL and the upcoming budget model will be critical for Tesla to navigate its current challenges and return to growth [12].