下游订单水平维持刚需，消费电子需求不振，光伏需求维持疲软，11月组件排产较10月下滑，家电市场 部分领域订单明显减少，且11月排产较10月下滑，传统旺季已经过去，据下游反馈出口订单水平还是偏 低，恢复较慢，尽管中美关税措施有调整，但是整体外贸水平较弱，现阶段整体需求暂时维持弱势。 对于后市，金瑞期货评论表示，国内锡矿供应或呈环比增加态势，产量环比上升。需求端持续低迷，消 费电子需求不振，高价进一步抑制下游采购意愿，企业多以刚需备货为主。随着宏观情绪支撑边际减 弱，锡价预计延续高位震荡运行。 （文华综合） 沪锡小幅反弹，结束三连阴走势，主力合约收涨1.19%，报293370元/吨。锡矿供应恢复缓慢，制约冶炼 企业产量提升。需求方面，虽然锡价连续回落，但仍处于偏高水平，下游加工企业对当前价格观望居 多，鲜有入市补货。近期美联储官员表态偏鹰，压制市场风险偏好，关注即将发布的美国重要宏观数据 对降息预期的指引。 云南及江西两地的锡锭冶炼厂生产情况整体呈现高位企稳状态，但进一步增长动力不足的态势。云南地 区生产恢复明显，冶炼企业停产检修结束后生产活动快速恢复，部分企业的原料供应得到补充，不过， 当地的锡矿原料供应依旧偏 ...

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices experienced a slight increase of 0.17% at closing, influenced by a decrease in expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and ongoing supply constraints from mining operations [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market is currently facing pressure due to reduced expectations for a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, alongside a significant drop in U.S. stock markets, which has dampened market risk appetite [1] - Despite the pressure on copper prices, there is a slight recovery in domestic consumption as prices have retreated, leading to an increase in operating rates among downstream enterprises and a minor reduction in domestic inventory levels [1] Group 2: Supply and Production - Freeport-McMoRan announced plans to resume large-scale production at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia in the second quarter of next year, with expectations that copper and gold production will remain stable at approximately 1 billion pounds of copper and 900,000 ounces of gold by 2026 [1] - The copper mining sector is experiencing increased disruptions this year, with domestic copper concentrate processing fees remaining low, indicating significant negotiation pressures for domestic smelters and overseas miners as the year ends [1]

国家统计局发布报告显示，中国2025年10月中国铝材产量为569.4万吨，环比下滑3.5%，同比下滑 3.2%。1-10月中国铝材产量为5524.3万吨，同比微落。10月铝价重心上移，需求表现平淡，铝材产量环 比下滑。 ...

Core Insights - African Rainbow Minerals (ARM) is evaluating a partnership with Newmont Corporation to develop a large copper mining project in Papua New Guinea, with potential investments reaching $4-5 billion [1] Investment Strategy - The company is currently making significant investments in Papua New Guinea and has established a partnership with Newmont [1] - The majority of the funding will be allocated to Australia and Papua New Guinea, which are key copper mining regions [1] Long-term Vision - The investment in Papua New Guinea is viewed as a long-term strategy, aligning with global trends of decarbonization and increasing demand for critical minerals [1]

Group 1 - LME copper prices fell for the third consecutive trading day, reaching a near two-week low due to a broad sell-off in risk assets, driven by concerns over high valuations in the tech sector and fading hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] - As of November 18, LME three-month copper dropped by $59, or 0.55%, closing at $10,719.5 per ton, with an earlier decline of 1.1% to $10,660.50, marking the lowest point since November 5 [1][2] - Other base metals also experienced declines, with LME three-month aluminum down by $33.5, or 1.19%, closing at $2,780.0 per ton, and LME three-month zinc down by $5, or 0.17%, closing at $2,989.0 per ton [2][4] Group 2 - Concerns over mining supply led to a decline from the historical high of $11,200 per ton for copper, a drop of approximately 4.3% [4] - Freeport-McMoRan announced plans to restart block cave mining operations at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia starting in Q2 2026, aligning with previous guidance, following a production halt due to a fatal accident in September [4] - The market is awaiting the release of U.S. employment data for September, which was delayed due to a government shutdown, impacting risk appetite in the context of AI influences and uncertainties regarding the Federal Reserve's next actions [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Commerzbank expects copper and aluminum prices to continue rising next year, reaching $12,000 and $3,200 per ton respectively [1] - Commerzbank forecasts zinc prices to be around $3,000 per ton next year [1] - The bank anticipates a moderate long-term increase in nickel prices, projecting a price of $16,000 per ton by the end of 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Glencore has reduced its stake in Century Aluminum by 10% to 33%, benefiting from increased profits in local aluminum smelting due to U.S. import tariffs on aluminum, resulting in several million dollars in gains [1] Group 1: Company Actions - Glencore is the largest shareholder of Century Aluminum and supplies alumina to the company while purchasing nearly all of its North American aluminum products for U.S. customers [1] - The reduction in Glencore's stake comes after the U.S. government raised aluminum import tariffs to 50% on June 4, aimed at encouraging domestic aluminum production [1] Group 2: Industry Context - Century Aluminum is the largest primary aluminum producer in the U.S., with a production of 690,000 tons of aluminum in 2024 [1] - According to Trade Data Monitor, U.S. aluminum imports are projected to be 3.94 million tons in 2024, indicating a significant market size [1] - Producers must ensure that their product prices cover the tariffs to continue shipping aluminum to the U.S. [1]

Group 1 - LME copper prices continued to decline, with three-month copper down 0.50% to $10,725 per ton, and Shanghai copper down 790 yuan or 0.88% to 85,650 yuan per ton [1] - The strong US dollar, benefiting from reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, has made dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for investors using other currencies [1] - Analysts noted that the labor market signals are becoming increasingly sensitive as investors reassess the Federal Reserve's recent path due to the delayed September employment data [1] Group 2 - Nickel prices also showed weakness, with three-month nickel down 0.58% to $14,565 per ton, testing the lowest levels since April [1] - LME nickel inventories rose to 252,090 tons, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [3] - Other metals such as aluminum, zinc, lead, and tin also experienced price declines, with three-month aluminum down 0.68% to $2,794.50 per ton [3] Group 3 - The battery raw material nickel sulfate is showing signs of weakness as of November [2] - The price of ferrosilicon is currently slightly above 900 yuan per nickel point, down from over 950 yuan per nickel point in mid-October [1]

Core Insights - China's copper production in October 2025 reached 200.4 thousand tons, showing a month-on-month decline of over 10% [1] - From January to October, China's copper production totaled 2,012.4 thousand tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.9% [1] - In October, copper prices continued to rise, reaching historical highs, which significantly suppressed downstream demand, leading to a decline in copper production [1]

Core Insights - China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) production in October 2025 reached 1.204 million tons, marking an 8.9% year-on-year increase. Cumulative production from January to October was 12.295 million tons, reflecting a 9.7% year-on-year growth [1][2]. Group 1: Metal Production Data - Alumina production in October was 7.865 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% and a cumulative increase of 8.0% for the year [2]. - Non-ferrous metals production totaled 6.954 million tons in October, showing a 2.9% year-on-year increase and a cumulative increase of 3.1% [2]. - Zinc production in October was 0.665 million tons, with a significant year-on-year increase of 15.7% and a cumulative increase of 8.5% [2]. - Aluminum production in October was 0.645 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%, while cumulative production showed a slight increase of 0.3% [2]. - Copper products production was 2.004 million tons in October, down 3.3% year-on-year, but cumulative production increased by 5.9% [2]. - Aluminum alloy production reached 1.682 million tons in October, with a notable year-on-year increase of 17.2% and a cumulative increase of 15.7% [2].