对于铜价走势，光大期货表示，市场分歧加大，贵金属和有色板块开始出现降温，这也是近期部分品种 再次出现过热现象后多头获利了结的结果，笔者认为有序调整后有利于后续行情的发展，关注持续性。 （文华综合） 隔夜公布的美国经济数据良莠不齐，部分就业数据不及预期，劳动力市场表现偏低迷，周五美国非农就 业数据即将出炉，市场等待更多指引，并将在此基础上衡量美联储货币政策前景。前期贵金属携手有色 板块涨势过快，伴随着贵金属行情降温，有色金属也普遍回落，沪铜走势追随沪银。 沪铜早间低开震荡，午后跌幅有所扩大，收盘下跌2.76%，期价仍在十万关口上方。沪铜追随贵金属跌 势，高价对国内需求的抑制延续，国内社会库存继续累积，现货维持贴水局面。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in tin and nickel prices, with Shanghai tin dropping nearly 3% and Shanghai nickel falling over 5% [1] - Recent surges in precious and non-ferrous metals have led to substantial profit-taking in the market, creating strong selling pressure [1] - Both sectors experienced a collective sell-off in the afternoon, with Shanghai nickel leading the decline among non-ferrous metals [1]

Group 1 - Bernstein forecasts an average copper price of $11,500 per ton in Q1 2026, followed by a decline to approximately $10,000 per ton in the second half of the year due to weakening market momentum [2] - Recent copper prices have surpassed $13,000 per ton, attributed to supply disruptions and human factors such as arbitrage trading and labor strikes [2] - The current high copper prices are supported by a structural demand from ongoing electrification trends, which will continue to bolster long-term demand for copper [2] Group 2 - Bernstein anticipates a normalization period for copper prices by 2026, driven by slowing demand growth and the increase of substitutes [2] - A potential slowdown in electric vehicle sales later this year may negatively impact market sentiment [2] - The market remains sensitive to macroeconomic developments, with negative news related to artificial intelligence and the electric vehicle industry potentially triggering rapid liquidation of speculative positions, leading to significant price corrections [2] Group 3 - China, as the largest copper consumer globally, faces three major challenges: increasing reliance on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [3] - To assist the industry in navigating these changes, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network has collaborated with copper industry enterprises to compile a bilingual distribution map of the Chinese copper industry chain [3]

沪镍震荡回落，主力合约跌超2%。近期在印尼政策调整和宏观情绪的共同推动下， 镍价大幅反弹。但 镍基本面未有明显变化，仍然维持供应过剩局面，同时，印尼缩减配额的实际落地情况仍有待观察，叠 加贵金属及有色市场炒作情绪降温，沪镍高位回落。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a decline, with the main contract falling over 2% in the night session, reflecting a broader weakness in international copper prices [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai copper futures opened lower and continued to decline, with the main contract's drop exceeding 2% [1] - International copper prices are also experiencing a downturn, following the trend in the domestic market [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Previous gains in copper prices were supported by concerns over supply tightness and bullish sentiment from rising precious metals [1] - However, domestic demand for copper is being suppressed by high prices, leading to a reversal in the recent upward trend [1] - The adjustment in precious metals at high levels has contributed to the decline in copper prices [1]

Group 1 - Chile's central bank reported that copper export revenue in December reached $5.83 billion, representing a 26.3% increase compared to the same period last year [2] - Chile is the world's largest copper producer [2] Group 2 - China's copper industry chain faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [2] - Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, in collaboration with copper industry chain enterprises, has compiled a bilingual version of the "2026 China Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map" to assist the industry in navigating these changes [2]

SMM联合制作联系人 刘明康 156 5309 0867 他还称："美国铜关税的阴影仍然是市场的一个影响因素，因为，无论关税是否实施，我们认为美国的高库存短期内不太可能再出口，即便有可能，也不会 很快。" （文华综合） 作为全球最大的铜消费国，中国产业链面临三大挑战：上游资源对外依存度攀升、中游加工环节产能过剩、下游需求受高铜价抑制。为助力行业应对变局， 上海有色网携手铜产业链企业联合编制《2026中国铜产业链分布图》中英双语版，点击此链接即可免费领取铜产业链分布图： https://s.wcd.im/v/470opZ19l/。 liumingkang@smm.cn 1月7日（周三），在供应趋紧和关税不确定性的担忧下，铜价有所回落，但继续守住每吨13,000美元的关口。 加皇资本市场的Sam Crittenden称："市场平衡状况仍然存在结构性紧张，纽商所库存高企是以牺牲全球交易所库存为代价的。" ...

Group 1 - Copper prices have surged above $13,000 per ton, driven by a strike at the Mantoverde mine in Chile and concerns over U.S. tariffs tightening supply [2][3] - The Mantoverde mine strike, which could last over two months, is seen as evidence of rising tensions between mining companies and workers due to high prices, despite the mine accounting for less than 0.5% of global supply [2] - Concerns are growing regarding potential U.S. tariffs on refined copper, with a decision expected by the end of June, which has previously led to significant premiums for COMEX copper over LME copper [3] Group 2 - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: increasing reliance on foreign resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [4]

》查看更多金属库存信息 | 地点 | | 前日库存 入库 出库 | | 今日库存 | 变动 | 注册仓单 | 注销仓单 | 注销占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铝 | 233350 | 0 | 2925 | 230425 | -2925 | 162500 | 67925 | 29.48% | | 新加坡 | 213175 | 0 | 2000 | 211175 | -2000 | 161925 | 49250 | 23.32% | | 高雄 | 19000 | 0 | તે જેટલ | 18075 | -925 | 100 | 17975 | 99.45% | | 里窝那 | 656 | 0 | 0 | ે જેટર | 0 | 450 | 475 | 51.35% | | 的里雅斯特 | 175 | 0 | 0 | 175 | 0 | 25 | 150 | 85.71% | | 毕尔巴鄂 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 100.00% | | 巴塞罗纳 | 25 | 0 | 0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has seen significant increases in industrial metal prices, with copper reaching a record high and nickel prices surging due to supply concerns [1][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - On January 6, LME three-month copper rose by $246.5, or 1.9%, closing at $13,238.0 per ton, having earlier peaked at $13,387.50, a record high [1][2]. - LME three-month nickel increased by $1,521, or 8.95%, closing at $18,524.0 per ton, with an earlier high of $18,785, the highest since June 5, 2024 [1][2]. - Other metals also saw price increases, with three-month aluminum up by $43.5 (1.41%), zinc up by $56 (1.75%), lead up by $52.5 (2.59%), and tin up by $2,060 (4.85%) [2][4]. Group 2: Supply Concerns - Copper prices have risen approximately 6.5% in 2026, driven by structural supply tightness and increased demand from electrification and data center investments [3]. - A strike at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper-gold mine in northern Chile has exacerbated supply concerns [3]. - The delay in the second phase of the Mirador copper mine project by China Copper has further intensified supply pressures [3]. Group 3: Market Predictions - Citigroup has raised its first-quarter copper price target from $12,000 to $14,000, while maintaining a baseline forecast of $13,000 for the remainder of the year [3]. - Analysts suggest that while current supply restrictions may boost prices in the short term, a significant surplus is expected by 2026 unless supply constraints deepen or demand improves meaningfully [4].