沪镍震荡回落，主力合约跌超2%。近期在印尼政策调整和宏观情绪的共同推动下， 镍价大幅反弹。但 镍基本面未有明显变化，仍然维持供应过剩局面，同时，印尼缩减配额的实际落地情况仍有待观察，叠 加贵金属及有色市场炒作情绪降温，沪镍高位回落。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a decline, with the main contract falling over 2% in the night session, reflecting a broader weakness in international copper prices [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai copper futures opened lower and continued to decline, with the main contract's drop exceeding 2% [1] - International copper prices are also experiencing a downturn, following the trend in the domestic market [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Previous gains in copper prices were supported by concerns over supply tightness and bullish sentiment from rising precious metals [1] - However, domestic demand for copper is being suppressed by high prices, leading to a reversal in the recent upward trend [1] - The adjustment in precious metals at high levels has contributed to the decline in copper prices [1]

Group 1 - Chile's central bank reported that copper export revenue in December reached $5.83 billion, representing a 26.3% increase compared to the same period last year [2] - Chile is the world's largest copper producer [2] Group 2 - China's copper industry chain faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [2] - Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, in collaboration with copper industry chain enterprises, has compiled a bilingual version of the "2026 China Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map" to assist the industry in navigating these changes [2]

SMM联合制作联系人 刘明康 156 5309 0867 他还称："美国铜关税的阴影仍然是市场的一个影响因素，因为，无论关税是否实施，我们认为美国的高库存短期内不太可能再出口，即便有可能，也不会 很快。" （文华综合） 作为全球最大的铜消费国，中国产业链面临三大挑战：上游资源对外依存度攀升、中游加工环节产能过剩、下游需求受高铜价抑制。为助力行业应对变局， 上海有色网携手铜产业链企业联合编制《2026中国铜产业链分布图》中英双语版，点击此链接即可免费领取铜产业链分布图： https://s.wcd.im/v/470opZ19l/。 liumingkang@smm.cn 1月7日（周三），在供应趋紧和关税不确定性的担忧下，铜价有所回落，但继续守住每吨13,000美元的关口。 加皇资本市场的Sam Crittenden称："市场平衡状况仍然存在结构性紧张，纽商所库存高企是以牺牲全球交易所库存为代价的。" ...

Group 1 - Copper prices have surged above $13,000 per ton, driven by a strike at the Mantoverde mine in Chile and concerns over U.S. tariffs tightening supply [2][3] - The Mantoverde mine strike, which could last over two months, is seen as evidence of rising tensions between mining companies and workers due to high prices, despite the mine accounting for less than 0.5% of global supply [2] - Concerns are growing regarding potential U.S. tariffs on refined copper, with a decision expected by the end of June, which has previously led to significant premiums for COMEX copper over LME copper [3] Group 2 - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: increasing reliance on foreign resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [4]

》查看更多金属库存信息 | 地点 | | 前日库存 入库 出库 | | 今日库存 | 变动 | 注册仓单 | 注销仓单 | 注销占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铝 | 233350 | 0 | 2925 | 230425 | -2925 | 162500 | 67925 | 29.48% | | 新加坡 | 213175 | 0 | 2000 | 211175 | -2000 | 161925 | 49250 | 23.32% | | 高雄 | 19000 | 0 | તે જેટલ | 18075 | -925 | 100 | 17975 | 99.45% | | 里窝那 | 656 | 0 | 0 | ે જેટર | 0 | 450 | 475 | 51.35% | | 的里雅斯特 | 175 | 0 | 0 | 175 | 0 | 25 | 150 | 85.71% | | 毕尔巴鄂 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 100.00% | | 巴塞罗纳 | 25 | 0 | 0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has seen significant increases in industrial metal prices, with copper reaching a record high and nickel prices surging due to supply concerns [1][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - On January 6, LME three-month copper rose by $246.5, or 1.9%, closing at $13,238.0 per ton, having earlier peaked at $13,387.50, a record high [1][2]. - LME three-month nickel increased by $1,521, or 8.95%, closing at $18,524.0 per ton, with an earlier high of $18,785, the highest since June 5, 2024 [1][2]. - Other metals also saw price increases, with three-month aluminum up by $43.5 (1.41%), zinc up by $56 (1.75%), lead up by $52.5 (2.59%), and tin up by $2,060 (4.85%) [2][4]. Group 2: Supply Concerns - Copper prices have risen approximately 6.5% in 2026, driven by structural supply tightness and increased demand from electrification and data center investments [3]. - A strike at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper-gold mine in northern Chile has exacerbated supply concerns [3]. - The delay in the second phase of the Mirador copper mine project by China Copper has further intensified supply pressures [3]. Group 3: Market Predictions - Citigroup has raised its first-quarter copper price target from $12,000 to $14,000, while maintaining a baseline forecast of $13,000 for the remainder of the year [3]. - Analysts suggest that while current supply restrictions may boost prices in the short term, a significant surplus is expected by 2026 unless supply constraints deepen or demand improves meaningfully [4].

Core Viewpoint - UBS Wealth Management predicts that gold prices could rise to $5,000 per ounce by the end of Q1 2026, driven by central bank purchases, expanding fiscal deficits, declining U.S. interest rates, and ongoing geopolitical risks [1][3]. Commodity Market Outlook - The overall commodity market is expected to continue its upward trend, with significant returns anticipated due to supply-demand imbalances, geopolitical tensions, and global energy transition trends [1][3]. - UBS is particularly optimistic about investment opportunities in copper, aluminum, and agricultural products, while gold remains a valuable asset for risk diversification in investment portfolios [1][2]. Specific Commodity Insights - Copper and aluminum are expected to face further supply shortages, driven by the ongoing global clean energy transition and electrification, making them core investment assets [2]. - Oil prices are projected to rebound in the second half of the year as current oversupply conditions ease with steady demand growth and slowing supply growth from non-OPEC producers [2]. Gold Price Forecast - Gold prices are expected to rise throughout the year, supported by central bank purchases, large fiscal deficits, declining U.S. real interest rates, and persistent geopolitical risks [2][3]. - UBS has raised its gold price target for the first three quarters of 2026 to $5,000 per ounce, with a projected decline to around $4,800 by the end of 2026 [3]. Political and Financial Risks - If political or financial risks escalate, gold prices could potentially reach $5,400 per ounce, an increase from the previous target of $4,900 [4].

Group 1 - Short-term aluminum prices are influenced by macroeconomic sentiment fluctuations and ongoing supply concerns, leading to a continuous rise in Shanghai aluminum prices, which reached a four-year high with a 3.29% increase in the main contract [1] - The data from the post-trading position shows that short positions in Shanghai aluminum have increased significantly, with net short positions expanding by 19,300 contracts, resulting in a three-month low in the long-short ratio [1] - The non-ferrous sector shows strong bullish sentiment, with reports of disruptions in overseas mining and low copper inventories in non-US regions, causing copper prices to rise significantly, with Shanghai copper prices reaching a new high of 105,490 yuan, up 4.88% [1] Group 2 - The increase in short positions for Shanghai copper is also notable, with net short positions expanding to 60,000 contracts, indicating a stronger willingness among short sellers to position themselves at higher prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the recent changes in the inventory levels of various metals at the London Metal Exchange (LME), indicating fluctuations in supply and demand dynamics across different metals. Group 1: Copper Inventory - Copper inventory increased to 146,075 tons, with a rise of 3,525 tons, reflecting a 2.47% increase [1] - The registered warrants for copper are at 114,200 tons, with a cancellation of 31,875 tons, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 21.82% [2] Group 2: Aluminum Inventory - Aluminum inventory decreased to 504,250 tons, down by 2,500 tons, a decline of 0.49% [1] - The registered warrants for aluminum stand at 446,475 tons, with a cancellation of 57,775 tons, leading to a cancellation ratio of 11.46% [2] Group 3: Zinc Inventory - Zinc inventory is reported at 105,775 tons, showing a decrease of 75 tons, which is a 0.07% decline [1] - The registered warrants for zinc are at 97,925 tons, with a cancellation of 7,850 tons, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 7.42% [2] Group 4: Tin Inventory - Tin inventory increased slightly to 5,420 tons, with an increase of 5 tons, reflecting a 0.09% rise [1] - The registered warrants for tin are at 5,265 tons, with a cancellation of 155 tons, leading to a cancellation ratio of 2.86% [2] Group 5: Aluminum Alloy Inventory - Aluminum alloy inventory remains unchanged at 1,500 tons, with no variations reported [1] Group 6: Location-Specific Inventory Changes - Specific locations such as Kaohsiung and Rotterdam show notable changes in inventory levels for copper and aluminum, indicating regional supply chain dynamics [4][5]