Core Insights - Global aluminum producers have quoted the aluminum premium for Japanese buyers at $98-$103 per ton for the October-December shipping period, reflecting a decrease of 5%-9% compared to the current quarter [1] - Japan, a significant aluminum importing country in Asia, has seen a substantial drop in aluminum premiums, with the premium for the July-September quarter set at $108 per ton, marking a 41% decline from the previous quarter, indicating weak demand [1] Industry Summary - The aluminum premium for Japanese buyers is based on the London Metal Exchange (LME) spot price, and the recent quotes suggest a downward trend in pricing [1] - The significant reduction in premiums highlights a potential oversupply or reduced demand in the market, particularly in Japan, which is a key player in aluminum imports [1]

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices fell due to a strong dollar and profit-taking after reaching a five-month high, with market attention on key U.S. employment data and tariff uncertainties [1][4]. Group 1: LME Copper Market - On September 4, LME three-month copper dropped by $77.5, or 0.78%, closing at $9,898.0 per ton [1][2]. - Year-to-date, LME copper has increased by 13% [4]. - The $10,000 level is currently seen as a strong resistance for copper prices, with insufficient fundamentals to break through [4]. Group 2: Employment Data Impact - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future policy meetings [4]. - In August, U.S. private sector jobs increased by 54,000, below the expected 65,000, indicating a loosening labor market [4]. - The anticipated non-farm payroll report may show an increase of 75,000 jobs in August, compared to 73,000 in July [4]. Group 3: Other Base Metals - LME three-month aluminum fell by $27.5, or 1.05%, closing at $2,591.5 per ton [2][7]. - LME three-month zinc decreased by $17.5, or 0.61%, closing at $2,843.5 per ton [2][8]. - LME three-month lead dropped by $10, or 0.5%, closing at $1,985.5 per ton [2][9]. - LME three-month nickel declined by $68, or 0.44%, closing at $15,236.0 per ton [2][10]. - LME three-month tin fell by $106, or 0.31%, closing at $34,556.0 per ton [2][11]. Group 4: Dollar Impact on Commodities - A stable dollar index makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies [5].

Group 1: Copper Inventory Changes - The registered warehouse inventory for copper decreased to 158,375 tons, a reduction of 1.91% from the previous day, with a cancellation of 16,100 tons, representing an increase of 19.04% in cancellations [1][3] - The cancellation ratio for copper is now at 10.17%, up from 8.53% the previous day [1] Group 2: Aluminum Inventory Changes - The aluminum inventory remains unchanged at 479,600 tons, with a cancellation of 10,850 tons, maintaining a cancellation ratio of 2.26% [1][5] - Specific locations such as Rotterdam and Singapore show significant cancellation ratios of 31.47% and 79.25% respectively [5] Group 3: Zinc Inventory Changes - Zinc inventory decreased to 54,750 tons, a drop of 9.42%, with a notable increase in cancellations to 16,300 tons, reflecting a 2759% increase in cancellations [1][9] - The cancellation ratio for zinc is now at 29.77%, up from 23.13% [1] Group 4: Tin Inventory Changes - Tin inventory increased slightly to 2,225 tons, with a cancellation of 190 tons, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 8.54% [1][11] - The inventory at specific locations like Singapore and Rotterdam shows stable levels with minimal changes [11] Group 5: Nickel Inventory Changes - Nickel inventory rose to 215,310 tons, with a cancellation of 8,352 tons, leading to a cancellation ratio of 3.88% [1][13] - The inventory levels in various locations such as Singapore and Kaohsiung indicate stable trends with minor fluctuations [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai copper market showed stability around the 80,000 yuan mark but experienced a decline of 0.51% at the close, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and rising precious metals [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Shanghai copper prices initially rose above 80,000 yuan due to strong macroeconomic sentiment and the performance of precious metals, but later retreated as domestic inventories increased and futures market sentiment weakened [1] - The market's focus is on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data, which is expected to influence macroeconomic sentiment and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1] Group 2: Inventory and Supply - LME copper inventory has remained relatively stable without significant accumulation, while SMM data indicated a 0.85 million ton increase in national copper inventory as of September 4 [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Jinrui Futures suggests that the macroeconomic factors driving metal prices remain positive, and under the current conditions, copper prices are expected to continue fluctuating at high levels, with potential for further strength [1] - A potential downside risk is the return of logistics, although the CL price spread remains positive, indicating a slower realization of returns [1]

该投行表示，铝在长期内至少与铜同样看涨，将2027年平均价格预测从3000美元/吨上调至3500美元/吨。 花旗预计未来数月白银将升至43美元/盎司。 该投行维持亨利枢纽天然气0-3个月价格目标为3.8美元/百万英热单位 花旗还将2026年布伦特原油平均价格预测从65美元/桶小幅下调至62美元/桶。 （文华综合） 作为全球最大的铜消费国，中国产业链面临三大挑战：上游资源对外依存度攀升、中游加工环节产能过剩、下游需求受高铜价抑制。为助力行业应对变局， 上海有色网携手铜产业链企业联合编制《2026中国铜产业链分布图》中英双语版，点击此链接即可免费领取铜产业链分布图： https://s.wcd.im/v/470opZ19l/。 9月3日（周三），花旗称，称中期看涨情绪增强，预计到2026年底铜价将突破11000美元。 SMM联合制作联系人 刘明康 156 5309 0867 liumingkang@smm.cn ...

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices stabilized after reaching a five-month high, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut in the U.S. later this month and a weakening dollar [1][4]. Price Summary - LME three-month copper closed at $9,975.50, down $5 or 0.05% [2]. - LME three-month aluminum remained unchanged at $2,619.00 [5]. - LME three-month zinc decreased by $4, or 0.14%, to $2,861.00 [6]. - LME three-month lead increased by $1.50, or 0.08%, to $1,995.50 [7]. - LME three-month nickel rose by $72, or 0.47%, to $15,304.00 [8]. - LME three-month tin fell by $71, or 0.20%, to $34,662.00 [9]. Market Analysis - The copper market experienced a technical glitch that delayed electronic trading by 90 minutes, with prices initially touching $10,038, the highest since March 26 [4]. - ING's commodity strategist Ewa Manthey anticipates that upcoming U.S. employment data will indicate a weakening labor market, reinforcing the case for a rate cut [4]. - Despite the potential for lower interest rates improving the outlook for metals, concerns about economic growth due to broad import tariffs in the U.S. continue to pressure industrial metal market sentiment [4]. - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.3%, making dollar-denominated metals more attractive to buyers holding other currencies, with surveys indicating a weaker dollar in the coming months [4].

Core Insights - LME tin inventory has decreased to a two-year low of 1,630 tons on August 19, 2025, but has since increased to 2,175 tons, marking a two-month high [2] - Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a 1% weekly increase in tin inventory to 7,566 tons for the week ending August 29, 2025 [2] Inventory Trends - LME tin inventory data from August 2025 shows a fluctuation with a notable increase from 1,630 tons on August 19 to 2,175 tons by September 2 [4] - Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory has shown a consistent upward trend, with a recorded increase to 7,566 tons on August 29, 2025 [4] Market Implications - The decline in inventories at both LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange typically supports tin prices, while an increase in inventory may exert downward pressure on prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices reached a two-month high due to a decline in the dollar, positive economic data, and optimistic expectations for a rate cut in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Copper Market Performance - On September 2, LME three-month copper rose by $96.5, or 0.98%, closing at $9,980.5 per ton, with an intraday high of $10,009, the highest since July 3 [1][2] - The premium for copper imports in China, measured by the Yangshan copper premium, increased to $55 per ton, up from $29 on July 8, but still below the $100 level seen in May [4] - LME copper inventories are high, indicating weak demand outside of China, with spot copper trading at a discount of approximately $85 per ton compared to three-month copper [5][6] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for the sixth consecutive month in August, with the ISM manufacturing PMI slightly rising to 48.7 from 48.0 in July, remaining below the neutral level of 50 [6] - The new orders index in the ISM survey rose to 51.4, indicating potential recovery after six months of contraction [7] - Market attention is focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 16-17, with expectations of a rate cut that could weaken the dollar and boost metal prices [7] Group 3: Other Base Metals Performance - LME three-month aluminum increased by $8, or 0.31%, closing at $2,619.0 per ton [2][8] - LME three-month zinc rose by $32.5, or 1.15%, closing at $2,865.0 per ton [2][8] - LME three-month lead decreased by $9.5, or 0.47%, closing at $1,994.0 per ton [2][9] - LME three-month nickel fell by $207, or 1.34%, closing at $15,232.0 per ton [2][10] - LME three-month tin dropped by $219, or 0.63%, closing at $34,733.0 per ton [2][8]

注：一般来说，国内外交易所库存不断下降将对期价形成支撑，反之，则对期价有所利空。 2023年以来LME和上期所锌库存对比 伦敦金属交易所（LME）公布数据显示，上周伦锌库存继续下降，最新库存水平为55,875吨，再刷逾两 年新低。 上期所公布的数据显示，8月29日当周，沪锌库存继续累积，目前已连增十周，周度库存增加10.46%至 85,980吨，增至九个月新高。 以下为2025年8月以来LME和上期所锌库存数据：（单位：吨） ...

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing limited movement with the main contract rising by 0.08% to 273,980 yuan/ton, influenced by a combination of declining domestic production and weak consumer demand [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Major smelting enterprises have initiated routine maintenance, leading to a noticeable decline in domestic production, while consumer demand remains weak [1] - Domestic tin inventory is high, while overseas inventory is at historical lows, creating a mixed market sentiment with limited driving forces [1] - The supply of tin ore remains tight, with delays in actual output from Myanmar expected until the fourth quarter due to seasonal and equipment supply issues [1] Group 2: Production and Supply - Domestic smelting plants are operating at low capacity, particularly in Yunnan, where raw material shortages persist [1] - Some previously shut-down enterprises are preparing to resume production, but another leading company is undergoing maintenance, suggesting an overall decline in production [1] Group 3: Pricing and Demand - Recent fluctuations in tin prices have seen a slight decline, with smelting plants showing a willingness to sell, but actual transactions remain limited [1] - Traders are actively quoting prices, noting that while tin prices have slightly decreased, they remain high, and downstream purchasing interest is weak [1] - Downstream orders continue to decline, with current consumption levels in the off-season, particularly in home appliances and photovoltaic sectors [1][2]