Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing limited movement with the main contract rising by 0.08% to 273,980 yuan/ton, influenced by a combination of declining domestic production and weak consumer demand [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Major smelting enterprises have initiated routine maintenance, leading to a noticeable decline in domestic production, while consumer demand remains weak [1] - Domestic tin inventory is high, while overseas inventory is at historical lows, creating a mixed market sentiment with limited driving forces [1] - The supply of tin ore remains tight, with delays in actual output from Myanmar expected until the fourth quarter due to seasonal and equipment supply issues [1] Group 2: Production and Supply - Domestic smelting plants are operating at low capacity, particularly in Yunnan, where raw material shortages persist [1] - Some previously shut-down enterprises are preparing to resume production, but another leading company is undergoing maintenance, suggesting an overall decline in production [1] Group 3: Pricing and Demand - Recent fluctuations in tin prices have seen a slight decline, with smelting plants showing a willingness to sell, but actual transactions remain limited [1] - Traders are actively quoting prices, noting that while tin prices have slightly decreased, they remain high, and downstream purchasing interest is weak [1] - Downstream orders continue to decline, with current consumption levels in the off-season, particularly in home appliances and photovoltaic sectors [1][2]

Group 1 - LME copper prices reached a one-month high, driven by positive manufacturing data from major metal-consuming countries and a weaker dollar [1][4] - As of September 1, LME three-month copper closed at $9,884.00 per ton, down $18.00 or 0.18% [2][4] - Year-to-date, LME copper has increased by 12%, rebounding from $8,105 in early April [4] Group 2 - China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August was reported at 49.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved manufacturing sentiment [4] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for August was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, remaining above the critical point and indicating continued expansion [4] Group 3 - Other base metals showed mixed performance: LME three-month aluminum fell by $4.50 (0.17%) to $2,611.00, while zinc rose by $13.50 (0.48%) to $2,832.50, lead increased by $12.50 (0.63%) to $2,003.50, and nickel rose by $18.00 (0.12%) to $15,439.00 [2][7][8][9][10] - LME three-month tin decreased by $66.00 (0.19%) to $34,952.00 [11] Group 4 - Investors are focusing on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, with additional attention on job vacancy and private sector employment data [5] - The U.S. financial markets were closed on Monday due to a holiday, resulting in light trading activity [6]

Inventory Changes - Copper inventory decreased to 158,875 tons, with a change of -0.10% from the previous day, and registered warrants at 13,175 tons, accounting for 8.29% of total inventory [1][3] - Aluminum inventory remained stable at 481,050 tons, with registered warrants at 12300 tons, representing 2.56% of total inventory [1][5] - Zinc inventory decreased to 55,875 tons, with a change of -1.49%, and registered warrants at 13,025 tons, making up 23.31% of total inventory [1][9] - Tin inventory increased to 2,155 tons, with a change of +8.71%, and registered warrants at 220 tons, accounting for 10.21% of total inventory [1][11] - Nickel inventory rose to 209,844 tons, with a change of +0.14%, and registered warrants at 7,998 tons, representing 3.81% of total inventory [1][13] Warehouse Specific Changes - In Kaohsiung, copper inventory decreased by 150 tons to 54,000 tons, with registered warrants at 2,325 tons, accounting for 4.31% [3] - Rotterdam showed a stable aluminum inventory of 3,575 tons, with registered warrants at 2,450 tons, representing 31.47% [5] - Singapore's zinc inventory decreased to 55,775 tons, with registered warrants at 13,000 tons, making up 23.31% [9] - Tin inventory in Singapore increased to 500 tons, with registered warrants at 40 tons, accounting for 8.00% [11] - Nickel inventory in Kaohsiung increased by 300 tons to 45,030 tons, with registered warrants at 4,896 tons, representing 10.87% [13]

| 2012 | 月 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 星期 | 星期 | 星期章 | 雪期四 | 星期間 | 黑斯 | 星期日 | | 1 | 2 | 3 | ব | 5 | 6 | 7 | | ○LME持仓 | | | | ○CFTC持仓 | | | | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | | □书照/□#踪画中。 。智利铜出口收入 | ○LME持仓 | ○LME月度库存 | | ○CFTC持仓 | | | | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | | 。中国十种金属和原铝 | ○LME持仓 | 。WBMS金属供需 | | ○CFTC持仓 | | | | 产量 | | | | | | | | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | | ○IAI全球原铝产量 | 。LME持仓 | 。ILZSG月报 | ●香港流入内地黄金。CFTC持仓 | | | | | 29 | 30 | | | | | | | ·智利月度铜产量 | | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have shown a slight increase, supported by the U.S. PCE price index aligning with market expectations, which continues to bolster the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut prospects in September [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On Friday night, copper futures opened high and fluctuated, ultimately closing with a gain of 0.71% [1] - The weakening U.S. dollar and significant gains in precious metals have positively influenced copper prices [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees have begun to recover from low levels, indicating a potential tightening in the copper market [1] - There is a notable divergence in views on processing fees between holders and smelters, which may impact the smelting sector moving forward [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - According to Jinrui Futures, if economic data does not disrupt interest rate cut expectations, copper prices are likely to continue fluctuating at high levels, with a potential for further strength [1] - A potential downside risk is the return of logistics, although the CL price spread remains positive, suggesting a slow realization of this risk [1]

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices reached a five-week high on August 29, driven by expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut and increased demand in September [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On August 29, LME three-month copper rose by $84, or 0.86%, closing at $9,902.00 per ton, with an intraday high of $9,918, the highest since July 25 [1] - Other base metals also saw gains, with three-month aluminum up by $10.50 (0.40%), zinc up by $38.00 (1.37%), lead up by $7.50 (0.38%), tin up by $216.00 (0.62%), and nickel up by $158.00 (1.04%) [2] Group 2: Economic Factors - A slight weakening of the U.S. dollar contributed to the rise in metal prices, making them more attractive to buyers using other currencies [4] - The U.S. second-quarter GDP growth was revised upward, indicating stronger economic performance [4] - The dollar is expected to decline by 2% in August, enhancing the appeal of dollar-denominated metals [4] Group 3: Chinese Market Insights - In China, the renminbi experienced its largest monthly gain against the U.S. dollar since May [5] - Copper inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 2.4%, while the Yangshan copper premium, reflecting import demand, stabilized at $55 per ton, the highest since June 5 [5] - Tin prices were supported by low inventories in both LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses, alongside speculative buying despite weak physical demand [5] Group 4: Company-Specific News - Tin Industry Co., Ltd. announced a planned maintenance shutdown for its tin smelting equipment starting August 30, 2025, for up to 45 days, which has been accounted for in the annual production plan [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the tin market is experiencing a strong reality with weak expectations, driven by slow recovery in Myanmar's tin mines and low import levels in China, alongside rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - The main contract for tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 2.31%, reaching 278,650 yuan per ton, marking a four-month high [1] - Domestic smelting plants are facing tight supply from the mining sector, with operating rates difficult to improve, and raw material inventories generally below 30 days [1] Group 2 - The processing fee for 40% grade tin concentrate in Yunnan remains low, and some smelting companies plan maintenance in August, which may further reduce capacity utilization [1] - The circulation of secondary materials in the Jiangxi region has decreased by over 30% year-on-year, leading to a significant shortage of crude tin supply, which restricts the recovery of refining capacity [1] - Despite rising tin prices, downstream demand remains weak, with a decline in orders for home appliances and a significant drop in photovoltaic orders, indicating a need to monitor recovery in demand during the peak consumption months of September and October [1] Group 3 - The two main factors supporting tin prices, namely low overseas inventories and strong structural demand, have not changed significantly [2] - The slow recovery of Myanmar's tin mines due to seasonal and operational constraints, along with tight raw material supplies and concerns over overseas liquidity, are providing a floor for tin prices [2] - Short-term expectations suggest that tin prices will maintain a high-level oscillation, but further significant increases will require additional positive stimuli [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai tin market is experiencing a price increase, with the main contract rising over 2%, despite being in a season of weak demand [1]. Supply and Demand - Overall demand for tin is currently weak due to the off-peak consumption season [1]. - Tin ore imports in China decreased slightly in July compared to June, indicating a tightening supply situation [1]. - Although Myanmar's Wa State has gradually resumed production, there has not yet been any significant volume of tin entering the domestic market [1]. Market Influences - The combination of tight supply and rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is contributing to a stronger outlook for Shanghai tin prices [1].

Group 1 - LME copper prices increased slightly on August 28, supported by a weaker dollar and increased demand for risk assets following Nvidia's strong earnings report [1][4] - LME three-month copper closed at $9,818.00 per ton, up $62.50 or 0.64%, after a previous decline of 0.8% [1][2] - The overall metal market is currently in a wait-and-see mode, with Nvidia's performance highlighting the importance of the AI boom for current market dynamics and broader investment demand [4] Group 2 - LME copper prices have risen 11% year-to-date, remaining within the $9,500 to $9,900 range since failing to break the $10,000 barrier in early July [4] - Other base metals also saw price increases, with LME three-month aluminum up $2.50 (0.1%), zinc up $19.50 (0.71%), nickel up $132 (0.87%), and tin up $249 (0.72%) [2][5] - LME copper inventory rose by 1,850 tons to a three-month high of 157,950 tons, indicating potential supply pressures in the market [5]

Core Insights - The company has successfully completed a technical upgrade plan at the Kipushi zinc mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo ahead of schedule, resulting in significant increases in zinc production and operational efficiency [1][2] Group 1: Technical Upgrade and Production Capacity - The technical upgrade plan, initiated in September 2024, aimed to increase the processing capacity of the plant from 800,000 tons per year to 960,000 tons per year, and was completed ahead of schedule [1] - Following the upgrade, the plant achieved a record zinc concentrate production of 5,545 tons within seven days after an August shutdown, equating to an annualized capacity of 290,000 tons of zinc [2] - The plant also set a record for zinc concentrate production of 1,052 tons in a 24-hour period, translating to an annualized capacity of 340,000 tons of zinc, considering equipment utilization [2] Group 2: Safety and Operational Improvements - The project team has maintained an industry-leading safety record, with no lost time injuries (LTI) reported from the start of construction in September 2022 to the completion of the recent upgrade in June 2024 [2] - An upgrade to the backup power system is ongoing, with the addition of 6 megawatts of backup generators expected to be operational in the fourth quarter, ensuring power supply during grid instability [2] Group 3: Sales Agreements and Financing - The company signed a three-year off-take agreement with Mercuria for one-third of the remaining high-grade zinc concentrate production from the Kipushi plant, along with a $20 million financing loan from Mercuria at a SOFR 6% interest rate [3] - Additionally, a previous agreement was made with CITIC Metal and Trafigura to secure off-take for two-thirds of the zinc concentrate production [3]