阿尔法工场研究院
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百亿商业航天牛股,“霸总”家族先把28亿拿走了
阿尔法工场研究院· 2026-02-09 00:06
以下文章来源于深蓝财经 ,作者深蓝财经 图 一张"空中大网",炒上天际 "网系绳索回收系统",这项听起来颇具未来感的黑科技,迅速成为2025年底至2026年初A股市场最性感的故事之一。 漫步在"海上",平台上的庞大结构指向天空,中央的圆形开口引人遐想。这是名为"领航者"的首艘国产火箭网系回收海上平台,已于2025年11月 30日成功交付。 春节前后,国内一款主流商业液体火箭即将在这里进行发射回收试验,这也是国内首次液体火箭的海上发射回收试验。 深蓝财经 . 影响价值圈层!创立于2011年,关注中国最具价值公司,是新中产的财富顾问。 源:网络示意图 导语: 能"网住"火箭的巨网,带飞公司市值近200%暴涨。 近日 商业航天的新龙头:巨力索具(002342.SZ) 逆势放量飙升,股价再创历史新高。 一张号称能"网住"火箭的巨网,把这家老牌索具公司的市值在两个月内推向近200%的暴涨,商业航天的故事从未如此诱人。 作为市场捧出来的"火箭回收龙头" ,公司究竟藏着怎样的秘密?是技术突破后的价值重估,还是概念炒作下的泡沫狂欢? 与此同时,一篇广为流传的"小作文"点燃市场情绪。小作文宣称,海上网系回收最核心、最性感的黑科 ...
别等他回国了,贾跃亭忙着在美国“造人”
阿尔法工场研究院· 2026-02-09 00:06
Core Viewpoint - Jia Yueting has not returned to China as promised and has instead ventured further into new business areas, including robotics, while facing ongoing challenges with his electric vehicle company, Faraday Future (FF) [4][21]. Group 1: Robotics Venture - At the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) conference in Las Vegas, Jia Yueting introduced three types of robots, ranging from a high-end humanoid robot priced at $243,000 to a $17,000 quadruped security robot, promoting the slogan "Every profession has its own robot" [5][12]. - Following the launch, he reported securing 1,211 paid pre-orders, claiming "release equals sales, sales equals delivery" [5][12]. - FF has also announced a $10 million investment from AIxC, which is a pure equity financing deal, expected to close around February 13 [13]. Group 2: Challenges with Faraday Future - Faraday Future has faced significant issues, including severe delivery delays, financial strain, and internal turmoil, leading to skepticism about its future [9][10]. - The company has struggled to deliver vehicles, with only 17 cars expected to be delivered in 2025, and a total of 10 cars delivered in the first three quarters of the year, with a slight increase to 7 in the fourth quarter [15]. - To maintain its listing status, FF has engaged in stock consolidation and introduced a "partner plan" to convert some equity into creditor trust, indicating a desperate attempt to stabilize the company [15]. Group 3: Debt and Legal Issues - Jia Yueting's personal debt, primarily related to the LeEco crisis, is approximately $12 billion, with over $10 billion repaid through a creditor trust in the U.S. [19]. - Remaining debts under Chinese jurisdiction are around $2 billion, equivalent to approximately 14.2 billion RMB, with ongoing legal actions resulting in over 10.29 billion RMB in unfulfilled debts [19]. - Despite securing $135 million in financing for debt repayment, this amount is insufficient compared to the massive debts left by LeEco [19].
“硅谷教父”马克·安德森:AI不会导致大规模失业,但有个前提
阿尔法工场研究院· 2026-02-06 09:38
这是其中第二部分, 安德森主要探讨了AI是否会让很多人失业的问题。 从生产力革命与劳动力市场角度,他认为应重新审视技术性失业,AI会带来职业边界的消解,比如软 件工程与产品开发任务的演进,而稀缺的审美与全才在AI时代将构建不可替代的竞争力。 (视频来 源:Web3天空之城) 近期,a16z(Andreessen Horowitz)联合创始人马克·安德森(Marc Andreessen)在播客The a16z Show上做了一场长达100分钟的深度对谈。作为硅谷最具影响力的投资人之一,安德森在对话中罕 见地系统阐述了他对AI产业的完整判断。 ...
卖金砖大赚8000万,红透澳门的“英皇宫殿”彻底没了
阿尔法工场研究院· 2026-02-06 09:38
Core Viewpoint - The sale of 79 kilograms of gold bricks by Emperor Entertainment Hotel Company marks a significant shift in the company's strategy as it exits the Macau gaming business, reflecting the broader trend in the industry towards consolidation and the development of flagship projects [3][9]. Group 1: Sale of Gold Bricks - The gold bricks, weighing 79 kilograms, were sold for 99.7 million HKD (approximately 88.58 million RMB), significantly higher than the initial purchase cost of about 9.4 million HKD, yielding a profit of approximately 80.14 million RMB after costs [3][5]. - The sale price per ounce was approximately 5,032.92 USD, indicating a strategic exit at a high market price, although it did not reach the peak of 5,600 USD per ounce [3][5]. - The proceeds from the sale will be used for future investment opportunities, as the company aims to focus on hotel and rental apartment operations following the cessation of its gaming activities [9]. Group 2: Impact on Business Operations - Emperor Entertainment Hotel Company reported a net loss of approximately 73.12 million HKD for the six months ending September 30, 2025, highlighting ongoing financial challenges despite the profitable sale of gold [11]. - The company’s total revenue for the 2025/2026 mid-term was approximately 336 million HKD, with hotel and rental income slightly increasing to about 158 million HKD, while gaming revenue dropped to about 178 million HKD, accounting for 53% of total revenue [11]. - The cessation of gaming operations is expected to lead to a significant decline in annual revenue, necessitating the exploration of new entertainment and leisure facilities to diversify income sources [11]. Group 3: Debt Crisis and Financial Challenges - Emperor International, part of the Emperor Group, faces a severe debt crisis with cumulative losses of approximately 14.557 billion HKD over six years, primarily due to substantial investments in mainland real estate and a downturn in Hong Kong commercial property [12][13]. - As of March 2025, Emperor International had 16.6 billion HKD in overdue bank loans, raising concerns about its ability to continue operations [12]. - The company has attempted to sell various assets to raise funds, including properties in Guangdong and London, while negotiating with banks for more flexible loan arrangements [15]. Group 4: Transition of Leadership - The transition of leadership within the Emperor Group is underway, with the next generation taking on more significant roles, as seen with the appointments of Yang Zhenglong and Yang Nuosi in key positions [20]. - The group's historical influence in the Hong Kong and Macau entertainment sectors is notable, with a legacy that includes significant contributions to the film and music industries [20].
极端行情下的公募抉择
阿尔法工场研究院· 2026-02-06 09:38
Core Viewpoint - The incident involving Guotou Ruijin's silver LOF fund highlights the risks associated with unique product designs, extreme market conditions, and delayed information disclosure [3][23]. Group 1: Incident Overview - The silver price experienced a dramatic drop of 26.93% in a single day, marking the largest single-day decline on record, which put Guotou Ruijin's silver LOF fund in the spotlight [4]. - The surge in silver prices at the beginning of the year, with a maximum increase of over 60%, led to a significant influx of capital into the only silver LOF fund in the market, creating substantial arbitrage demand and profit effects [5]. Group 2: Fund Management Response - Guotou Ruijin's handling of the silver LOF situation appeared chaotic, as evidenced by the frequency of purchase restrictions, with four announcements made since December 19, including two within less than a full trading day [7]. - The decision to adjust the valuation reference from domestic silver futures to international silver prices after a significant price drop led to a shocking 31.5% decline in the fund's net asset value, which was the largest single-day drop in public fund history [9][10]. Group 3: Investor Impact - The late announcement of the valuation change left investors unaware of the new settlement rules, resulting in unexpected losses without the opportunity to mitigate their positions [11]. - The situation revealed a lack of adequate product design and risk management, as the fund's unique structure did not have a clear benchmark or reference, making it vulnerable to extreme price fluctuations [13][14]. Group 4: Industry Implications - The incident serves as a warning for the fund industry regarding the necessity for transparent and timely information disclosure, especially during extreme market conditions [17][23]. - Fund companies must prioritize investor protection and establish comprehensive risk management frameworks that include preemptive measures for extreme scenarios [19][22].
外资险企巨头,不能直接“抄写”中国答案
阿尔法工场研究院· 2026-02-05 07:48
以下文章来源于阿尔法工场金融家 ,作者金妹妹 阿尔法工场金融家 . 追踪保险银行业圈内动态,剖析最新风向,分享有料、有价值的"内行人"洞察见解。 导语: 是继续总部遥控,还是本土授权? 在中国市场,治理能力已成为比资本、品牌甚至专业经验更核心的竞争力。 彻底完成外资独资化解决了"谁说了算",但也放大了"怎么说才 对"的治理难题。 后者,才是在中国市场生存的关键。 1月27日披露的史带财产保险股份有限公司(下称"史带财险")偿付能力报告显示,截至2025年四季度末,该公司的核心偿付能力充足率为 197.53%,综合偿付能力充足率为214.59%,较上季度分别下降27.5个百分点和26.4个百分点。此外,净资产、实际资本与核心资本等资本指标 均出现了收缩趋势。 图源:国家金融监督管理总局 上述困境或是长期以来公司治理、 业务布局、风险管理等多重选择叠加的必然结果。归根到底,仍然是本土化治理结构之踵。 作为一家早在2011年便入局中国市场、2025年彻底完成外资独资化转型的老牌外资险企,史带财险褪去合资色彩后,并未同步搭建起适配中国市 场的本土化治理架构,反而陷入了"海外总部强管控、本土团队弱授权"的治理困境。这也 ...
“硅谷教父”马克·安德森:人工智能如何重塑教育
阿尔法工场研究院· 2026-02-05 07:48
近期,a16z(Andreessen Horowitz)联合创始人马克·安德森(Marc Andreessen)在播客The a16z Show上做了一场长达100分钟的深度对谈。作为硅谷最具影响力的投资人之一,安德森在对话中罕 见地系统阐述了他对AI产业的完整判断。 这是其中第一部分, 安德森主要探讨了AI与全球经济格局,以及 AI如何重塑教育与个人能动性。 他认为,在人口增长放缓的背景下,人工智能与机器人技术的兴起被视为维持经济发展的必要工具。 技术变革正将基础资源转化为创新思想,使人类劳动者的价值进一步凸显,而非被廉 价化。 (视频 来源:Web3天空之城) ...
美股科技软件板块大崩盘,罪魁祸首竟是这家公司?
阿尔法工场研究院· 2026-02-05 07:48
Core Viewpoint - The emergence of native AI models, exemplified by Anthropic's new automation tools, poses a significant threat to traditional software companies, raising questions about the sustainability of their business models and competitive advantages [2][3]. Group 1: Impact of Anthropic's Tools - Anthropic's release of a legal tool plugin for its Claude Cowork platform has triggered panic selling in the software sector, particularly affecting legal software and data service companies [2]. - Major companies like Thomson Reuters and LegalZoom saw their stock prices plummet by 21% and over 20% respectively, as their core business models were directly challenged by the cost-effective and integrated solutions offered by AI [3]. - The market fears that if companies can use a single AI plugin to handle legal compliance tasks that previously required multiple expensive software subscriptions, the subscription value of traditional SaaS companies will be severely undermined [3]. Group 2: Subscription Model Crisis - The term "SaaSpocalypse" reflects the growing concern that AI advancements may not just assist growth but could potentially replace traditional subscription models entirely [5]. - The traditional software industry's reliance on high-margin recurring revenue from seat-based billing is threatened as AI agents can perform tasks that previously required multiple personnel [5]. - This shift in expectations regarding future growth is a key driver behind the current wave of panic selling in the software sector [5]. Group 3: Performance Discrepancies - Among S&P 500 software stocks, only 69% reported revenues above expectations, significantly lower than the tech sector's overall 85% success rate, indicating a weak position in the AI-driven market [6]. - Even strong performers like Microsoft are under scrutiny as their Azure cloud business shows signs of slowing growth, leading to a decline in stock price over four consecutive trading days [6]. - In contrast, Palantir emerged as a rare "safe haven" with a 70% revenue increase in Q4, suggesting that the market is selectively favoring companies that can effectively leverage AI to enhance productivity [6]. Group 4: Market Reallocation - Despite the Nasdaq's poor performance, the S&P 500 shows a "seesaw" effect, with companies like FedEx and Walmart gaining market value, indicating a shift of funds from vulnerable software stocks to more defensively positioned sectors [7]. - The selling pressure on software stocks is characterized by a "surrender" mentality among investors, who are eager to exit positions regardless of price [7]. - From an investment perspective, extreme panic often creates opportunities, as evidenced by Microsoft's valuation dropping to a three-year low with a forward P/E ratio around 25 [7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal moment for the software industry, as AI programming and automation lower development barriers and diminish traditional business moats [8]. - The consensus on Wall Street has shifted fundamentally, with software no longer seen as a guaranteed profit generator in the face of competition from companies like Anthropic that possess foundational AI models [8]. - Investors are advised to focus on identifying companies with core competencies that are not easily replaceable by automation, rather than blindly attempting to catch falling stocks [8].
皇台酒业四连板:博弈白酒产业“末日轮”
阿尔法工场研究院· 2026-02-05 07:48
净利润 预告接近 "腰斩",股价 却走出了诡异的 四连 板。 基本面与股价走势上演极致背离,市场发出的信号往往比表面看起来更为复杂。 1月3 1 日,皇台酒业 ( 000995.SZ )在业绩预告中披露, 预计全年净利润为 1000万至1500万元,同比暴跌45.85%至63.90% 。早在去年 三季度,皇台酒业营收已同比下滑 23.25%,且经营现金流为负。 公告 发布前后,皇台酒业股价 却走出独立行情,接连 拉出四个涨停板, 直至今日收盘仍有 5%以上的涨幅。 若将 此番 股价异动简单归因为借头部白酒大单品涨价 之机 的 " 炒作 " ,未免流于表面。 更深层逻辑是, 当白酒行业从高速扩张全面转向存量整合,部分酒企的二级市场定价逻辑已脱离当前经营业绩,转而由产业变革中的博弈价值主 导。 当下白酒板块,正艰难穿越深度调整的周期隧道。存量挤压叠加马太效应加剧,行业收入与利润正以前所未有的速度向极少数全国品牌龙头集 中。 数量庞大的区域中小酒企普遍陷入营收下滑、利润萎 缩乃至亏损的困境,生存空间日益逼仄。 看似豪赌的操作,并非没有现实面因素。一场 由地方国资与产业资本主导的产业整合浪潮 或将来临 。 2024年 ...
火箭加AI,马斯克1.25万亿美元“太空圈地”
阿尔法工场研究院· 2026-02-04 00:08
Core Viewpoint - SpaceX is shifting its strategy from merely connecting Earth to providing computational capabilities through a proposed deployment of 1 million satellites, aiming to create a "Space AI Empire" valued at approximately $1.25 trillion, integrating AI with satellite technology [4][13][50]. Group 1: SpaceX's Strategic Shift - SpaceX has applied to deploy up to 1 million satellites, marking a fundamental shift in its strategy towards creating a computational layer around Earth [4][11]. - The acquisition of xAI is a critical component of this strategy, with SpaceX's valuation at around $1 trillion and xAI at approximately $250 billion [4][13]. - The goal is to establish a massive computational system in low Earth orbit, utilizing solar energy and enabling efficient data processing and AI model training [11][12]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The competition for low Earth orbit resources is intensifying, with China also applying for approximately 203,000 satellites, indicating a race for satellite frequency and orbital slots [7][8]. - The International Telecommunication Union mandates that applicants must launch their first satellite within seven years and complete deployment within 14 years, adding pressure to competitors [8][20]. - SpaceX's aggressive strategy is prompting other players, including national and private entities, to respond with their own satellite deployment plans [18][38]. Group 3: Business Model Transformation - SpaceX is transitioning from a telecommunications company charging subscription fees for satellite internet to a cloud computing service provider renting computational power, expanding its market potential from billions to trillions [23][24]. - The new model will allow SpaceX to compete directly with established cloud service providers like Amazon AWS and Microsoft Azure [25][36]. - The anticipated cost efficiency of space-based computational power could disrupt the AI industry, with projections suggesting that space will become the most cost-effective location for generating AI computational power [24][25]. Group 4: Technological and Regulatory Challenges - Significant technical challenges remain, including the development of radiation-resistant chips and high-speed inter-satellite communication systems necessary for effective space-based computing [28][29]. - Regulatory hurdles are also a concern, as SpaceX's previous applications for satellite deployments have faced scrutiny, and the new proposal for 1 million satellites will likely encounter rigorous review [29][30]. - Despite these challenges, advancements in satellite technology and launch capabilities are being pursued to facilitate the ambitious deployment plans [30][34]. Group 5: Implications for Global Technology Landscape - SpaceX's transformation could reshape the global technology landscape, particularly impacting traditional cloud computing giants that rely on terrestrial data centers [36][51]. - The emergence of a space-based computational network could redefine geopolitical dynamics in technology, as it would allow for a more distributed and less geographically constrained AI development environment [36][52]. - The competition for orbital resources is not just a commercial battle but also a strategic one, with implications for national security and technological sovereignty [9][52].