Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the current market for gold is still in a transitional phase, with potential for further price increases due to unresolved tariff issues and a "stagflation-like" environment [1][3][7] - The analysis indicates that the gold market has not yet reached a "crowded" trading zone, suggesting there is still room for additional capital inflow [17] - The article emphasizes a "buy-and-hold" strategy as more advantageous in the current market conditions, with a higher success rate for short-term trading strategies based on volume and price [18] Group 2 - From a fundamental perspective, the article outlines four phases of gold price behavior during financial crises, indicating that the current market is transitioning from the second phase to the third phase [3][7] - The article highlights that the market's pricing of inflation and growth is not fully accounting for the potential "inflation" effects, which could further support gold prices [7] - The article provides a detailed table summarizing the attitudes of major economies towards U.S. tariff issues, indicating varying degrees of response and potential impacts on global trade [8] Group 3 - The article notes that the current gold trading volume is above the average line, but still below historical "most crowded" levels, indicating potential for further accumulation [17] - The analysis of trading strategies shows that the 5-day and 20-day moving average strategies have the highest success rates, while longer-term strategies may reduce effectiveness [18][28] - The article suggests that the ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties, particularly regarding U.S.-China relations and tariff negotiations, will continue to influence gold prices [7][29]

文 ｜ 李想 荣浩翔 朱翀佚 电力现货市场经过试点省份运行已积累较多经验，具备提速基础；作为价格发现关键一环，政策提 出2 0 2 5年底前基本实现电力现货市场全覆盖的目标，国内电力市场市场化建设迈出重要一步；推 动电力现货市场发展，有助传统水电、抽蓄、火电、储能、虚拟电厂等具备调节能力的电源拓展其 盈利通道或者完善其商业模式，助力新型电力系统建设。 ▍ 事件： 近日，国家发展改革委办公厅、国家能源局综合司联合发布《关于全面加快电力现货市场建设工 作的通知》（以下简称《通知》），围绕构建全国统一大市场要求建设全国统一电力市场，全面 加快电力现货市场建设，2 0 2 5年底前基本实现电力现货市场全覆盖，全面开展连续结算运行，充 分发挥现货市场发现价格、调节供需的关键作用。 ▍ 现货市场是电力市场体系的关键环节，目 前已有多省现货市场正式运行。 现货市场是电力市场体系中的关键组成环节，反映电力商品的真实价格信号、引导实现电力资源 的优化配置，并为中长期市场价格形成提供参考。建立完善电力现货市场有助于提升电力系统的 灵活性与稳定性，同时推动储能等调节型资源建立起清晰的商业模式。2 0 1 7年我国电力现货市场 建设 ...

文 ｜ 闻天 王亦琛 唐栋国 赵文荣 何旺岚 郭佳昕 张子辰 2 0 2 5年一季度公募"固收+"基金规模回升至1 . 6 1万亿元。从发行情况来看，"固收+"基金平均募集 规模亦有回暖，其中混合债券型二级基金平均募集规模由1 5 . 2 2亿元上升至2 0 . 6 4亿元。配置方 面，"固收+"基金股票仓位无明显变化，转债仓位稍有下降，二级债基与偏债混合型基金均大幅加 仓有色行业。公募固收与混合类FOF开始转向发挥FOF投资的优势，利用商品基金、QDII基金、 长久期债券ETF等工具构建多资产配置策略。 ▍ 行业格局及发展：公募固收产品总规模小幅回落，"固收+"基金规模回升。 一季度公募固收类基金管理规模与管理份额分别为1 0 . 3 7万亿元和9 . 2 7万亿份，相较2 0 2 4年末规 模小幅回落。其中，主动纯债型基金总规模约为7 . 5 2万亿元，相较2 0 2 4年末减少5 5 6 0亿元，环 比下滑6 . 8 8%。"固收+"基金管理总规模为1 . 6 1万亿元，相较2 0 2 4年末增加1 5 1 4亿元。从细分品 类上看，混合债券型二级基金、混合债券型一级基金（固收+）和可转换债券型基金规模 ...

Core Viewpoint - The tourism market in China is experiencing strong growth, with domestic travel and spending increasing significantly during the May Day holiday, indicating a robust recovery and structural highlights in long-distance travel, county tourism, and outbound travel [1][2][12]. Overview - During the May Day holiday, 314 million domestic trips were made, representing a 6.4% year-on-year increase, while total spending reached 180.27 billion yuan, up 8.0% year-on-year. Per capita spending improved by 1.5%, recovering to approximately 90% of 2019 levels [2][12]. - The total cross-regional movement of people was estimated at 1.467 billion, a growth of 8.0% year-on-year, exceeding previous expectations [2]. Structure - **Long-distance Travel**: Destinations like Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Ningxia saw ticket sales surge by 100-200%. The number of travelers combining annual leave with the holiday increased by 30% [3]. - **County Tourism**: Bookings for rural tourism rose nearly 20%, with hotel reservations in county-level cities increasing by 30% [3]. - **Outbound Travel**: Orders for outbound travel increased by 20%, with popular destinations including Japan, South Korea, and Thailand. Inbound travel orders surged by 130% [4][3]. Scenic Spots and Destinations - Scenic spots experienced strong visitor numbers, with many achieving record attendance. For instance, Huangshan received 147,000 visitors, a 13.7% increase year-on-year [5][6]. - Other notable performances included Jiuhua Mountain and various cultural performances, which also saw significant increases in attendance [6][5]. Hotel Performance - Hotel occupancy rates averaged 67.5%, up 4.9% year-on-year, with average daily rates (ADR) at 283.8 yuan, a 6.8% increase. Revenue per available room (RevPAR) rose by 12.0% [8][9]. - The demand for higher-quality accommodations is evident, with economic hotels seeing the largest price increases [8]. Macau Gaming - Macau saw a significant increase in visitor numbers, with a 42.3% year-on-year rise during the holiday period. However, expectations for gaming revenue growth remain cautious due to previous market performance [10]. - The average daily gross gaming revenue (GGR) is expected to exceed last year's figures, reflecting a recovery in the tourism sector [10]. Investment Strategy - The outlook for the tourism sector remains positive, with expectations for continued demand recovery and improved supply conditions. Recommended sectors include high-elasticity consumer stocks, hotels, human resources, and quality stocks in scenic spots and gaming [12].

文 ｜ 明明 周成华 王楠茜 2 0 2 5年一季度美国GDP实际环比折年率从2 0 2 4年四季度的2 . 4%快速下降至- 0 . 3%，主要拖累为进 口增加、政府支出减少，同时美国消费韧性也在下降。4 月美国非农数据显示美国就业市场近期保 持了相对平稳，市场降息预期降温。若特朗普关税倾向不改，特朗普关税等政策对美国经济的负面 冲击预计将持续，未来美国就业市场、GDP增长难言乐观。 ▍ 2 0 2 5年一季度美国GDP实际环比折年率从2 0 2 4年四季度的2 . 4%快速下降至- 0 . 3%，主要拖累 为进口增加、政府支出减少。 从私人投资细分项来看，美国私人投资项中最高贡献项为私人库存增加，其次为企业投资项增 加，但其主要由关税政策下抢库存推动，企业未来库存预期实际上在下降。美国GDP私人存货变 化的领先指标出现下降迹象，中小企业的库存扩张计划预期在特朗普上台后也显著下滑。美国企 业累库行为未来或随着关税政策逐步落地而减弱，美国GDP私人存货变化对美国GDP的正向贡献 或将随之下降。 ▍ 美国企业投资或仍有一定韧性，但美国住宅投资受高利率抑制。 美国制造业核心资本品新订单从2 0 2 4年末开始提升 ...

文 ｜ 杨帆 玛西高娃 王希明 李想 5月2日，中国商务部表示正在评估与美国启动贸易谈判的可能性，较此前立场有所软化；美日第 二轮谈判依然有较大分歧，我们认为可能会降低美国对华要价底气。中美关系缓和预期推动离岸人 民币汇率升值到7 . 2 1，为5个月多来最高值。前期中国出口企业囤积了大量未结汇美元，若这些贸 易商集中结汇，或可持续支撑人民币升值。国内五一假期出游人次再创新高，"量优于价"的特征或 仍然存在，入境游、县域游、长线游高增长为数据中三大结构性亮点。 ▍ 5月2日，中国商务部表示正在评估与美国启动贸易谈判的可能性，较此前立场有所软化；美日 第二轮谈判依然有较大分歧，可能会降低美国对华要价底气。 4月2 2日，美国总统特朗普首次表示关税可能从1 4 5%的水平下调，释放缓和信号，随后美国财政 部长等高管多次表示与中国之间存在接触。5月2日，中国商务部专门就中美经贸对话磋商情况答 记者问，表示正在评估美国启动贸易谈判的可能性，较此前外交部"中美双方并没有就关税问题 进行磋商或谈判"的强硬表态有所软化。另外，美国和日本在5月2日进行了第二轮部长级谈判， 但是分歧依然较大。据日本《每日新闻》5月2日报道，会 ...

Core Viewpoint - The resurgence of "America First" is prompting the EU to enter an era of "strategic awakening," with the negative impact of U.S. tariffs on the EU economy likely to manifest sooner than the positive effects of fiscal expansion, which may only begin to outweigh the negative impacts by Q4 of this year [1][4][13]. Group 1: Strategic Awakening in the EU - The unilateralism of the Trump administration is increasing anxiety among European nations, leading to a consensus on increasing defense spending within the EU [2][13]. - Germany's €1 trillion fiscal expansion plan has completed the legislative process and will be discussed after the new government is formed [2][13]. - The EU's €800 billion proposal for "rearming Europe" is actively progressing, with national exception clause applications approved in July [2][4]. Group 2: Impact of Tariffs on the EU Economy - The static assessment indicates that U.S. tariffs will raise the effective tariff rate on imports from the EU by 9.6 percentage points, potentially reducing EU exports by approximately 1.9% and impacting EU GDP by about 0.5% [4][12]. - The pharmaceutical and organic chemical sectors are particularly vulnerable to these tariffs, with countries like Ireland, Finland, Italy, and Germany being sensitive to U.S. tariff policies [4][10]. Group 3: Fiscal Expansion and Economic Growth - Increased fiscal spending on defense and infrastructure is expected to effectively boost economic growth in Europe, with France and Germany likely to be the primary beneficiaries [4][18]. - The positive impact of fiscal expansion may take longer to materialize compared to the immediate negative effects of tariffs, with expectations that the latter will begin to diminish by Q4 of this year [4][12]. Group 4: Investment Strategies and Market Sentiment - Investor sentiment is crucial for the EU economy to avoid recession, with many European companies focusing on equipment upgrades and product R&D rather than capacity expansion [18]. - Chinese companies are encouraged to leverage the EU's fiscal expansion to accelerate strategic transformations and seek potential opportunities in Europe, particularly in sectors like electrical and optical equipment [18].

Group 1 - The core principle in response to trade uncertainties is to focus on "trading facts rather than expectations," indicating that risk assets have returned to their original prices amid the tariff war [1] - A-shares are expected to continue showing characteristics of risk preference recovery and thematic rotation, with a focus on low institutional holdings and thematic trading opportunities [1] - Three major trends are emphasized: the unwavering trend of enhancing China's independent technological capabilities, the European Union's reconstruction of autonomous defense and energy infrastructure, and the necessity for China to accelerate the "dual circulation" strategy to stimulate domestic demand [1] Group 2 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce is evaluating the possibility of restarting trade negotiations with the U.S., indicating a softening stance compared to previous positions [2] - The offshore RMB exchange rate has appreciated to 7.21, the highest in over five months, driven by expectations of improved Sino-U.S. relations [2] - During the May Day holiday, domestic travel numbers reached new highs, with significant growth in inbound travel, county tourism, and long-distance travel [2] Group 3 - The analysis of tariff burden sharing reveals that industries with strong competitive advantages, such as textiles and telecommunications, are likely to bear less tariff burden, while weaker industries like pharmaceuticals may face higher burdens [3][4] - The U.S. has a high import dependency on certain Chinese products, which influences the tariff negotiation dynamics [4] Group 4 - The EU's economic recovery is complicated by U.S. tariff policies, with expectations that the negative impact of tariffs will manifest before the positive effects of fiscal expansion [5] - The global manufacturing PMI for April 2025 shows a slight decline, indicating pressures from tariffs and economic uncertainties [6] Group 5 - The banking sector experienced negative revenue and profit growth in Q1 2025, but there are expectations for gradual recovery in subsequent quarters due to adjustments in interest rates and market conditions [8] - The insurance sector reported better-than-expected Q1 results, indicating a potential for a slow bull market trajectory [17] Group 6 - The electronic industry showed normal growth despite seasonal demand fluctuations, with strong performance in sectors like computing power and automotive components [10] - Fund allocation in the electronic sector has increased, particularly in semiconductors, reflecting a positive outlook amid trade policy uncertainties [10][11] Group 7 - The tourism market during the May Day holiday showed robust demand, with significant increases in travel numbers and a positive outlook for the service sector [14] - The water price reform in Guangzhou is expected to alleviate cost pressures for water supply companies, potentially leading to improved industry returns [15]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for domestic travel during the 2025 Labor Day holiday is expected to exceed 350 million trips, representing a year-on-year growth of over 15% [1][2][8] Group 1: Domestic Travel Demand - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism predicts that domestic tourism during the Labor Day holiday will surpass 350 million trips, with a year-on-year increase of over 15% [1][2] - The first three days of the holiday saw a total of 840 million cross-regional travelers, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, with civil aviation and railway passenger volumes growing by 12.5% and 10.5% respectively [2][6] - The longer holiday period and the ability to combine days off have led to a broader travel range and increased travel volume compared to the Qingming Festival [2][6] Group 2: Civil Aviation Performance - Daily average passenger volume for civil aviation reached 219,200, marking a historical high and a year-on-year increase of 12.5% [3][8] - The average ticket price is expected to decline by no more than 5% year-on-year, with effective measures to curb price drops during the holiday [4][8] - The utilization rate of narrow-body aircraft on May 1 increased by 0.7 hours compared to 2019, indicating strong demand for long-distance travel [3][8] Group 3: International Travel Trends - The recovery rate of international flights reached 91%, with cross-border travel showing a "dual warming" trend due to visa-free policies [5][8] - Inbound travel orders surged by 173% year-on-year during the holiday, with top destinations including Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou [5][8] Group 4: Railway and Road Travel - Railway passenger volume increased by 10.5% year-on-year during the first three days of the holiday, exceeding expectations [6][8] - Daily average traffic on highways also grew by 4.9%, indicating a positive trend in road travel [6][8] - The popularity of lower-tier cities as travel destinations has contributed to increased demand for both rail and road travel [6][8]

文 ｜ 肖斐斐 彭博 胡家俊 林楠 李鑫 一季度银行板块景气度低位运行，存量按揭贷款利率调整、LPR重定价在一季度集中体现，拉低银 行息差表现，债市波动对银行非息收入产生影响，银行板块一季度营收和利润负增长。我们认为 由于：1）一季度LPR调降频率和幅度大幅低于预期；2）存款重定价对息差的正向作用开始体 现；3）债市波动下降，银行策略调整到位，后续季度收入和利润增速有望逐步修复。由于一季度 大行盈利负增长的"指引效应"，我们预计大行全年营收和业绩仍有较大概率为负、全行业盈利整体 在极低个位数。从板块投资来看，银行受中美贸易的影响幅度将显著弱于其他行业，全年相对价值 逻辑成立；绝对收益逻辑仍来自于银行系统性风险再评估带来的估值修复驱动，以及人民币大类资 产配置框架下的稳定权益回报特征驱动。 ▍ 业绩概览：收入与利润增速低位。 1）行业经营：一季度收入与利润增速回落转负。 2 0 2 5年一季度A股上市银行的营业收入和归母 净利润分别同比- 1 . 7%/- 1 . 2%（上年全年为+0 . 1%/+2 . 3%），行业景气度受到季节性和周期性因 素的共同影响； 2）盈利要素：结构生变，降本增效 。收入端，2 0 ...