美国2 5Q1实际GDP季调环比折年率录得- 0 . 3%，低于预期- 0 . 2%和前值2 . 4%。2 5Q1美国GDP下 滑主要来自关税前"抢进口"导致的进口激增，2 5Q1进口环比增长4 1 . 3%，录得疫情后2 0Q3环比 8 5 . 7%以来的最高值，进而导致净出口对2 5Q1GDP拖累4 . 8 3 p p ts。另外，在DOGE（政府效率 部）的冲击下，政府支出对2 5Q1GDP也有0 . 2 5 p p ts的拖累。私人库存变动是2 5Q1GDP最大的支 撑项，美国经济分析局表示药品和杂项等批发商品的库存增加明显(Th e l a rg e st c o n tri b u t o r t o t h e i n c r e a s e i n i n v e stme n t wa s p ri v a t e i n v e n t o r y i n v e stme n t, l e d b y a n i n c r e a s e i n wh o l e s a l e tr a d e ( n o t a b l y, d r u g s a n d s u n d ri ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the principle of "trading facts, not expectations" should guide responses to uncertainties arising from the trade war, indicating a potential recovery in risk appetite and a focus on thematic trading opportunities in the A-share market [1][4]. Market Performance - Since the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by Trump, major global stock indices have experienced a noticeable pullback of -20% to -5%, but indices such as India's NIFTY 50, Nikkei 225, and NASDAQ have fully recovered and recorded positive returns [3]. - The commodity market shows a mixed performance, with precious metals and agricultural products achieving positive returns, while industrial metals like aluminum, nickel, and copper have seen minimal declines [3]. Economic Indicators - China's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0% in April, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating weakening economic conditions [12]. - The new export orders index dropped to 44.7%, significantly below the five-year average, primarily due to reduced exports to the U.S. [12]. Investment Strategy - The article suggests focusing on three enduring trends: the enhancement of China's independent technological capabilities, Europe's reconstruction of autonomous defense, and the necessity for China to promote domestic circulation and improve social security [14][15]. - A-shares are expected to exhibit a warming risk preference and thematic rotation, with an emphasis on low institutional holdings [9][10]. Future Outlook - The article anticipates that May may see more bilateral trade agreements that are more symbolic than substantive, with a focus on maintaining economic stability [7][8]. - The potential impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation and retail is expected to become evident by late May to mid-June, as American consumers deplete their pre-tariff stockpiles [13].

文 ｜ 贾天楚 崔嵘 李翀 韦昕澄 2 0 2 5年4月全球制造业PMI指数（4 9 . 8）环比小幅下滑，呈现"中国调整、新兴良好、日韩分化、 欧洲企稳、美国承压、加墨收缩"的特征。欧元区制造业PMI边际回升，出现阶段性企稳回升态 势，不过关税仍为经济复苏带来不确定性因素。4月美国ISM制造业PMI指数录得4 8 . 7，并呈现"供 需回落、通胀抬升、就业市场降温、外贸大幅回落"的特点，美国经济数据回落的趋势和海外市场 的衰退交易尚未结束。整体而言，关税对美国及全球经济的影响已经初步显现，美国经济读数或仍 小幅回落，对资本市场的扰动尚未结束，我们预计年中美国制造业PMI或仍在荣枯线以下波动运 行。 ▍ 2 0 2 5年4月全球制造业PMI指数较3月环比小幅下滑，录得4 9 . 8，关税扰动增加经济不确定 性。 4月全球制造业PMI指数环比小幅下滑，整体呈现" 中国调整、新兴良好、日韩分化、欧洲企稳、 美国承压、加墨收缩 "的特征。横向比较来看，亚洲新兴国家制造业表现涨跌互现，但整体相对 好于欧洲地区。 ▍ 分区域来看： 1）亚洲方面，经济表现延续分化态势，在荣枯线两侧窄幅震荡，日本、印度制造业边际回升。 4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in April 2025 has declined compared to the previous month and the past five-year average, indicating a weakening manufacturing sector under external pressures, particularly from trade tensions with the US [1][3][4] Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for April 2025 is reported at 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month and 1.3 percentage points lower than the five-year average, reflecting a decrease in manufacturing activity due to external trade pressures [2][3] - The production index within the manufacturing PMI is at 49.8%, which is 2.4 percentage points lower than the five-year average, indicating a decline in production levels [4] - The new export orders index is at 44.7%, significantly lower than the five-year average by 4.8 percentage points, primarily due to reduced exports to the US [4][5] Sector Performance - Among 15 major manufacturing sectors, only 5 have PMIs above the threshold, with 4 sectors showing a month-on-month increase, including non-ferrous metal smelting and processing, which rose by 9.1 percentage points [5] - The gap between PMIs of large, medium, and small enterprises is narrowing, with large enterprises experiencing a more significant decline [5] Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI for April 2025 is at 50.4%, which is 3.6 percentage points lower than the five-year average, indicating weaker domestic demand [6] - The service sector PMI is at 50.1%, and the construction sector PMI is at 51.9%, both reflecting a decline compared to historical averages [6] Policy Response - The Central Political Bureau meeting in April outlined measures to stabilize the economy, including accelerating existing policy implementation, introducing new policies, and preparing contingency plans [7] - Specific actions include expediting the issuance of local government bonds and establishing new financial tools to support infrastructure and industrial investments [7] Market Outlook - Economic fundamentals are expected to support the bond market, with anticipated monetary easing leading to a potential decline in interest rates for medium and long-term bonds [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariff measures on the bond market, highlighting a rapid decline in interest rates and the subsequent stabilization, while emphasizing the need to monitor external demand shocks and government debt issuance in May [1][2][3]. Group 1: Bond Market Overview - In April, following the implementation of tariff measures by the Trump administration, the stock market experienced a significant drop, leading to a rapid decline in long-term bond yields [2]. - The 10-year government bond yield remained stable around 1.65% during the latter part of April, reflecting market adjustments to external demand shocks and monetary policy expectations [2][3]. - The issuance of special government bonds has been confirmed, with net financing for government bonds in May expected to be around 623.4 billion, indicating a moderate level of financing activity [4]. Group 2: Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The liquidity gap in May is projected to be around 1500 billion, which is considered manageable, suggesting a continuation of a loose monetary environment [5]. - Despite the tariff-induced uncertainties, the central bank has not implemented significant monetary easing measures, maintaining a stance of "appropriate looseness" in monetary policy [6][7]. - The article anticipates that the central bank may prioritize a reserve requirement ratio cut in the second quarter, depending on external economic conditions [7]. Group 3: Credit Market Dynamics - In April, credit bond yields decreased, particularly in short-term bonds, with credit spreads for one-year bonds narrowing by up to 14 basis points [9]. - The article notes a shift in the yield curve, with the potential for long-term credit bonds to experience upward adjustments in yields [9][10]. - The analysis suggests that selecting 3-5 year credit bonds could yield higher returns, with estimated riding yields of 0.4% to 2% depending on the holding period [10]. Group 4: Interest Rate Trends - Recent trends indicate a decline in overnight funding rates, with the 7-day moving average of DR001 dropping to 1.65%, reflecting a 30 basis point decrease from previous highs [11]. - The article emphasizes the need for a supportive monetary environment to stimulate domestic demand, with expectations for short- to medium-term government bond yields to benefit from this liquidity [11][12]. - The current yield curve is described as relatively flat, with a higher probability of a steepening trend in the near future [12].

Core Viewpoint - The water price reform plan in Guangzhou will take effect on June 1, 2025, with a 29% increase in the first-tier residential water price and a 27% increase in non-residential water price, aimed at alleviating the financial pressure on local water supply companies [1][2]. Summary by Sections Water Price Adjustment Details - The new residential water prices will be set at 2.55, 3.82, and 7.65 yuan per ton for the first, second, and third tiers respectively, reflecting increases of 29%, 29%, and 93% compared to the current rates [2]. - The non-residential water price will rise to 4.40 yuan per ton, marking a 27% increase from the existing price [2]. Financial Performance of Water Supply Companies - Guangzhou's current water prices have not changed for over a decade, leading to continuous losses for local water supply companies, with profits dropping from 333 million yuan in 2017 to a loss of 334 million yuan in 2023 [3]. - Excluding other income, the losses have increased from 188 million yuan in 2017 to 500 million yuan in 2023, indicating a worsening financial situation since 2019 [3]. Cost Transmission Mechanism - The lack of an effective cost transmission mechanism is identified as a core reason for the declining profitability of Guangzhou's water supply companies [4]. - The implementation of the new management measures in October 2021 aims to enhance the market-oriented nature of water pricing and establish a regulatory cycle of three years for urban water pricing [4]. Historical Context and Future Implications - Historical data suggests that price adjustments in major cities catalyze broader water price reforms across the country, with recent adjustments in cities like Shanghai, Nanjing, and Shenzhen indicating a trend towards faster price mechanism alignment [5][6]. - Since the introduction of the new management measures, 39 cities have adjusted their water prices, with 32 cities making changes in 2023, 2024, and early 2025, which is expected to improve the long-standing low returns in the water supply industry [7]. Investment Strategy - The ongoing improvements in water pricing policies and the alignment of industry pricing mechanisms are anticipated to enhance overall returns in the water supply sector, benefiting water operation assets significantly [9].

2025年5月28日-30日 · 上海 2025年资本市场论坛 资本市场论坛是中信证券的半年度策略会,是每年规模 最大、规格最高、客户最多、影响力最广的年度大会之一。 历届年会参会人员均在四千人以上,主要包括百余位发言 嘉宾,中信证券境内外研究员,1000余家备受市场关注的 上市公司,重要的公私募基金、保险、银行、QFII和海外投 资者以及其他市场参与主体等,是专业的投资交流平台,也 是经济和金融领域的盛会。 2025年,全球经济在多重变局中探索发展路径。大国博弈 持续深化,外部经贸扰动明显加剧,产业链面临深度重构。特 朗普政府以"对等关税"为名,持续加码贸易壁垒,加剧市 场动荡。在复杂外部环境下,一季度中国经济开局良好,高 质量发展的根基持续夯实。 尊敬的客户: 您好! 中信证券2025年资本市场论坛定于2025年5月28日至5月 30日在上海举办，诚邀您的光临。 面对外部冲击影响加大,4月政治局会议强调强化底线思 维,充分备足预案。美关税政策仍可能因自身压力不断反复, 在此背景下,提升经济韧性、保护市场主体、团结国际力量 尤为重要。展望后续,财政政策将持续发力,专项债发行有 望进一步提速。货币政策延续适度 ...

文 ｜ 朱昱锟 王文聪 霍商贤 王伟达 美方加征关税，家电企业通过产能出海积极应对。近期，美国对华再加关税，引发资本市场关注，我们认为，主要家电企业已采取相应措施进行 应对：短期来说，出口型公司已提前进行海外备货，降低业绩影响；中长期维度，主要企业已积极布局东南亚、墨西哥产能，减少关税影响。需 要留意的是，中东、拉美等新兴市场也在起量，有助于降低美国订单波动对国内企业的影响。 ▍ 美国对华加征关税，对美弊大于利。 2 0 2 5年特朗普执政以来，3个月内对贸易伙伴持续加征关税，征收对象范围不断扩大、征收力度增强。目前美方对中国整体关税达到1 3 5%，其 中空调/冰箱税率在1 5 0%附近，中国企业在东南亚的生产基地也受关税波及。从全球家电产能分布（图1）、美国对中国家电依赖度来看，美国 对中国家电企业征收高额关税，弊大于利。根据美国作者萨拉·邦焦尔尼所写的《离开中国制造的一年》，美国民众若完全脱离中国制造的商 品，则生活成本与购物难度皆会增加。 | | 公布时间 | 生效时间 | 征收对象 | 加税幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | . 中国商品加征 ...

文 ｜ 尹欣驰 李景涛 4月2 8日，工信部发布2 0 2 5年汽车标准化工作要点，其中提出需要强化驾驶辅助、自动驾驶等智能网联汽车标准供给。此前， 工信部召开闭门会议，进一步规范产业链公司对于辅助驾驶的宣传、发布、测试、OTA升级等活动。我们认为，产业链公司料 将重点提升产品成熟度与安全性：1）资源投入方面，预计主机厂将进一步收敛软硬件架构，以保证产品成熟度，并加速数据收 集；2）技术演进方面，能够提升系统鲁棒性的激光雷达有望加速渗透，功能边界明确、安全责任划分清晰的L3级别有条件自 动驾驶也有望获得更多资源投入。重点推荐智驾行业的头部公司。 从行业进展来看，工信部正有序推进试点工作，于2 0 2 4年6月发布首批智能网联汽车准入和上路通行试点名单，共有9个联合 体入选。从产业链公司的进展来看，华为已发布支持高速L3的ADS Ultr a，致力于推进相关功能的落地，尊界S8 0 0将成为 ADS Ultr a的首发车型之一。 ▍ 安全性将成为驾驶辅助的重要卖点，激光雷达有望逐步成为"标配产品"。 2 0 2 3年起，主机厂加速投放L2级别组合驾驶辅助功能。与视觉方案相比，激光雷达在夜间的识别能力更强，识别精 ...

姜娅｜中信证券 消费产业首席分析师 S1010510120056 消费｜离境退税细则落地，推广提速提振内需 今年以来我国消费政策全面升级创新，近期细分领域政策相继出台，政策体系逐步完 善。近日国家税务总局发布离境退税管理办法修订细则，三方面推动前期离境退 税"即买即退"推广政策落地：①备案流程简化、时间缩短、资质放款，退税商店扩容 覆盖更广阔中小商家；②提额度+降起退点拓宽价格带场景，优质国货商品有望受 益；③进一步提升退税便利度。根据我们测算，乐观假设下离境退税市场潜在空间近 千亿级别，有望进一步提振消费扩大内需。建议密切关注政策效果显现，潜在受益板 块包括：传统零售板块中经营能力强、调改转型领先企业、消费基础设施和相关运营 商、出行服务提供商、景区目的地。 风险因素：关税政策调整；经济增速下行超预期；入境游客数量增长不及预期；入境 游客消费能力弱于预期；政策落地效果不及预期等。 刘春彤｜中信证券 联席首席A股策略师 S1010520080003 亮马组合｜自下而上，发掘高确定性机会（202505） 亮马组合是基于策略聚焦观点和行业研究精选推荐，遴选出的月度金股组合。本篇报 告为2025年第5期，更新中信证 ...