Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a strong start in the week of January 5-9, 2026, with major indices showing significant increases. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.82%, the Shanghai 50 by 3.40%, the CSI 300 by 2.79%, the CSI 500 by 7.92%, the CSI 1000 by 7.03%, the ChiNext Index by 3.89%, and the Northbound 50 Index by 5.82% [4] - Market sentiment improved, with major indices' volume indicators showing bullish signals. The financing amount increased significantly compared to the previous period, indicating a continued optimistic outlook for the market [4] Valuation Insights - As of January 9, 2026, the valuation levels of major indices indicate that the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 are in the "danger" zone, while the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and ChiNext Index are in the "moderate" zone [4] - In terms of industry classification, sectors such as steel, building materials, light manufacturing, electric equipment and new energy, defense and military, retail, textiles and apparel, pharmaceuticals, banking, electronics, computers, and comprehensive finance are also in the "danger" valuation zone. Conversely, food and beverage, as well as non-bank financials, are in the "safe" valuation zone [5] Fund Flow and Institutional Interest - The top five stocks attracting institutional attention this week were CITIC Securities (161 institutions), Entropy Technology (136), Huaqin Technology (121), Chaojie Co. (117), and Xin'ao Co. (115) [6] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 32.694 billion, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing HKD 11.966 billion and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing HKD 20.728 billion [6] - The median return for stock ETFs this week was 4.25%, with a net inflow of CNY 816 million. In contrast, cross-border ETFs had a median return of 0.99% with a net outflow of CNY 6.3 million, while Hong Kong stock ETFs had a median return of 2.66% with a net inflow of HKD 14.042 billion [6] Market Trends - The report indicates a potential for further market uptrend under the backdrop of increased risk appetite, with expectations for a spring rally. The long-term investment strategy remains focused on a "dividend + technology" allocation theme [4]

Market Overview - During the period from January 5 to January 9, 2026, the secondary market prices of publicly listed REITs in China increased, with the China Securities REITs closing at 793.05 and the China Securities REITs total return index at 1028.93, reflecting returns of 1.86% and 1.89% respectively [4] - Compared to other major asset classes, the return rates ranked as follows: convertible bonds > A-shares > gold > REITs > US stocks > crude oil > pure bonds [4] - Both property and concession-type REITs saw price increases, with property-type REITs yielding a return of 2.48% and concession-type REITs yielding 1.69% [4] - The municipal facilities REITs had the highest increase in returns, with the top three asset types being municipal facilities, new infrastructure, and water conservancy facilities [4] Trading Activity - The total trading volume for public REITs during this period was 3.55 billion yuan, with new infrastructure REITs leading in average daily turnover rate at 0.70% [5] - The top three REITs by trading volume were CICC ProLogis REIT, Jianxin Zhongguancun REIT, and Guotai Junan Chengtou Kuan Ting Rental Housing REIT, while the top three by trading value were Huaxia China Resources Commercial REIT, CICC Anhui Jiaokong REIT, and Huaxia China Communications Construction REIT [5] - The net inflow of capital during this period was 19.501 million yuan, indicating increased market trading enthusiasm compared to the previous period [5] Block Trading - The total amount of block trading during this period was 154 million yuan, which was a decrease from the previous period [6] - There were five trading days with block trades, with the highest single-day block trading amount reaching 38.98 million yuan on January 7, 2026 [6] - The top three REITs by block trading value were Guangfa Chengdu Gaotou Industrial Park REIT, CICC ProLogis Consumption REIT, and CICC Hubei Keti Guanggu REIT [6] Primary Market - No new REIT products were listed during this period [7] - The project status of four REIT products was updated [7]

Overall Viewpoint - This week, there were multiple supply-side events in the new energy sector: (1) Four ministries held a symposium on power and energy storage battery industries to regulate industry competition; (2) The "anti-involution" trend in the photovoltaic sector was influenced by market information, leading to a continuous decline in polysilicon futures; (3) Export tax rebates for photovoltaic products will be canceled starting April 1, 2026, while battery product export tax rates will gradually decrease to a cancellation by 2027. The new energy industry's "anti-involution" is inherently complex and challenging, with the state aiming to maintain international competitiveness. Balancing market and policy adjustments will evolve accordingly. Therefore, the direction of the photovoltaic industry's "anti-involution" will not change, focusing more on execution coordination and method restructuring; the battery industry is more about preventive reminders against energy storage battery oversupply; the adjustment of export tax rebate policies is expected to optimize the supply side, potentially leading to a short-term export rush [4]. Investment Perspective - (1) Market enthusiasm is currently focused on commercial aerospace and space computing, with wind power stocks such as Goldwind Technology, Taisheng Wind Energy, and Mingyang Smart Energy, as well as photovoltaic stocks like Junda Co., Oriental Sunrise, and Maiwei Co., having accumulated significant price increases, detaching from their core business fundamentals, making it inadvisable to chase high prices at this time [4]. - (2) AI power: There is optimism regarding domestic computing power demand rebounding after the NVIDIA H200 release; the HVDC solution is expected to ramp up, and SST technology and collaboration progress are likely to materialize; this can also align with AI applications to form sector rotation; the capital expenditure situation for North American data centers in 2027 needs to be assessed during the US stock annual report period for risk evaluation [4]. - (3) During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, based on the dual benefits of China's future industries and the EU carbon tariff in 2026, there is optimism for the coordinated, large-scale, and advanced construction of hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol [5]. - (4) For energy storage/lithium battery upstream: The overall game on the lithium battery demand side is focused on domestic energy storage bidding in 2026; data on energy storage and vehicle terminals still need to be tracked, making it difficult to confirm or refute; the investment ranking for lithium battery materials is: lithium carbonate > lithium hexafluorophosphate > aluminum foil > separator > copper foil > anode; lithium carbonate prices still have upward momentum in the short term [5].

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a strong start to the year, with major indices showing significant increases, indicating a rise in market risk appetite [5] - The financing amount increased significantly, reflecting a continued optimistic performance in the market [5] - The spring market rally is anticipated to continue, supported by improved market sentiment [5] Group 2: Fixed Income - In the credit bond market, 332 bonds were issued with a total issuance scale of 312.27 billion, marking a 30.6% increase compared to the previous period [6] - Credit spreads varied across industries, with the largest increase in the food and beverage sector (up 2.1 basis points) and the largest decrease in the telecommunications sector (down 8.3 basis points) [6] Group 3: Commodities - The TC spot price reached a historical low, indicating ongoing tightness in copper concentrate procurement, while domestic social inventory continues to grow [7] - Despite the pressure on demand from rising copper prices, the supply-demand situation is expected to remain tight, with a positive outlook for copper prices in 2026 [7] Group 4: Chemical Industry - The small nucleic acid drug market is projected to experience rapid growth in 2026, with key players like Bluestar Technology and Lonza leading breakthroughs in critical areas [8] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has introduced measures against Japan, increasing the urgency for domestic substitution of key semiconductor materials [8] Group 5: Renewable Energy and Environmental Protection - The photovoltaic industry is expected to focus on coordination and method restructuring, while the battery industry is advised to prevent oversupply in energy storage batteries [9] - Investment opportunities are identified in domestic computing power, hydrogen energy, and upstream energy storage sectors, with a positive outlook for lithium carbonate prices in the short term [9]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the performance of various market factors and investment strategies over the week of January 5 to January 9, 2026, indicating a mixed performance across different factors and sectors, with notable trends in momentum and valuation factors [4][5][6]. Factor Performance - Major factors such as beta, residual volatility, and size factors yielded positive returns of 1.07%, 1.02%, and 0.59% respectively, while the momentum factor showed a significant negative return of -1.08% [4]. - In the CSI 300 stock pool, the best-performing factors included 5-day average turnover rate (4.90%), relative turnover volatility (4.59%), and quarterly revenue growth rate (3.92%), while the worst performers were momentum-adjusted large orders (-1.11%), ROA stability (-1.15%), and ROE stability (-1.43%) [5]. - In the CSI 500 stock pool, the top factors were gross margin TTM (1.29%), quarterly net profit growth rate (1.09%), and total asset growth rate (0.81%), with the worst being price-to-book ratio (-3.51%), TTM price-to-earnings ratio inverse (-4.06%), and price-to-earnings ratio (-4.69%) [5]. - In the liquidity 1500 stock pool, the best factors were gross margin TTM (2.17%), quarterly revenue growth rate (2.14%), and quarterly operating profit growth rate (1.85%), while the worst were the correlation of intraday volatility with transaction amount (-2.64%), price-to-earnings ratio (-3.01%), and TTM price-to-earnings ratio inverse (-3.18%) [5]. Industry Factor Performance - The net asset growth rate factor performed well in the non-bank financial and diversified sectors, while the net profit growth rate factor excelled in the diversified sector [6]. - The per-share net asset factor showed strong performance in the real estate and beauty care sectors, and the per-share operating profit TTM factor performed well in the diversified sector [6]. - The 5-day momentum factor exhibited momentum effects in media, communication, steel, and pharmaceutical sectors, while showing reversal effects in coal and agriculture sectors [6]. - Valuation factors like BP performed well in real estate and leisure services, while EP performed well in banking and non-bank financial sectors [7]. Investment Strategy Performance - The PB-ROE-50 combination achieved significant excess returns in the CSI 800 and overall market stock pools, with excess returns of 1.36% in the CSI 800 and 1.23% in the overall market, but a negative excess return of -2.18% in the CSI 500 stock pool [8]. - The private equity research tracking strategy generated positive excess returns, while the public equity research stock selection strategy had a relative excess return of -0.31% compared to the CSI 800 [9]. - The block trading combination achieved an excess return of 0.69% relative to the CSI All Index [10]. - The targeted issuance combination experienced a pullback in excess returns, with a relative excess return of -1.58% compared to the CSI All Index [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the revolutionary shift in small nucleic acid drugs, highlighting their potential to transition from symptomatic treatment to addressing root causes, marking a significant advancement in the pharmaceutical industry [4]. Group 1: Small Nucleic Acid Drug Technology - Small nucleic acid drugs (siRNA, ASO, etc.) are considered the "third wave" of drug development, following small molecules and antibody drugs [4]. - These drugs are not limited by their molecular structure and can target a broader range of disease pathways, significantly increasing the probability of successful drug development [4]. - Current advancements in delivery technologies and chemical modifications have led to extended half-lives for these drugs, improving patient compliance in chronic disease management [4]. Group 2: Market Growth and Commercialization - The global small nucleic acid drug market is projected to reach $20.6 billion by 2029 and $54.9 billion by 2034, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.6% [5]. - Major players like Alnylam, Ionis, and Arrowhead are leading the market, with multinational corporations (MNCs) such as Novartis and Roche investing heavily in this sector [5]. - Alnylam's core product, Amvuttra, is expected to exceed $2 billion in sales by 2025, indicating strong market performance [6]. Group 3: Technological Breakthroughs - Arrowhead has developed RNAi therapies targeting various diseases through its TRiM platform, expanding the application of small nucleic acid drugs beyond liver diseases [7]. - Avidity Biosciences has made significant progress in muscle tissue delivery using antibody-oligonucleotide conjugates (AOC) technology, indicating a broader therapeutic potential [7]. Group 4: China's Small Nucleic Acid Drug Industry - The Chinese small nucleic acid drug industry is experiencing a qualitative leap, overcoming delivery patent barriers and demonstrating global competitiveness in target selection and molecular design [8]. - A complete industrial chain has emerged in China, with domestic raw materials achieving localization, thus reducing R&D costs [8]. - Significant business development (BD) transactions have occurred, including a record $5 billion deal between Wobang Pharmaceutical and Novartis, showcasing the global recognition of Chinese innovation [8].

以下文章来源于债券人 ，作者光大证券固收研究 本周（2026年1月5日至2026年1月9日，共5个交易日）中证转债指数涨跌幅为+4.45%（上周涨跌幅 为-0.27%），中证全指变动为+5.04%（上周涨跌幅为-0.32%）。2026年以来中证转债涨跌幅为+4.45%， 中证全指涨跌幅为+5.04%。 分评级来看，债项评级高评级券（评级为AAA）、中高评级券（评级为AA+）、中评级券（评级为 AA）、中低评级券（评级为AA-）和低评级券（评级为AA-及以下）本周涨跌幅分别为+1.37%、+2.50% 、+5.16%、+4.83%、+4.10%，中评级券涨幅最高。 债券人 . 唯有进行扎实的基本面研究，方能行稳致远。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 1、市场 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market continued to rise this week, driven by an increase in market risk appetite, with major indices generally showing upward trends. The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 index had the best performance with a gain of 9.8%, while the CSI 300 index had the lowest performance with a gain of 2.8%. The overall valuation of the Wind All A index is at the 94.6 percentile since 2010 [4]. Industry Performance - In terms of industry performance, the comprehensive, defense, and media sectors performed relatively well, with gains of 14.5%, 13.6%, and 13.1% respectively. Conversely, the banking, transportation, and oil & petrochemical sectors lagged behind, with gains of -1.9%, 0.2%, and 0.3% respectively [4]. Important Events - Key events included a meeting between President Xi Jinping and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, and the issuance of the "Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing" implementation opinions by eight departments. Additionally, December inflation data was released, showing a 0.2% month-on-month increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month but fell by 1.9% year-on-year [5]. Market Sentiment - Short-term market enthusiasm is expected to continue, although a gradual cooling is anticipated after mid-January leading up to the Spring Festival. Policy support is likely to persist, and economic growth is expected to remain within a reasonable range, further solidifying the foundation for capital market prosperity [6][7]. Sector Focus - Attention is drawn to sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and non-ferrous metals. If the market style leans towards growth, the top-scoring sectors include electronics, power equipment, communication, non-ferrous metals, automotive, and defense. In a defensive market style, the top sectors are non-bank financials, electronics, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, automotive, and transportation [7]. Thematic Investment - Continued focus on the commercial aerospace sector is recommended, which has shown significant gains since being highlighted. Despite potential profit-taking pressures, the sector remains supported by frequent policy benefits and active capital flows. Any short-term pullbacks are viewed as good opportunities for investors to enter [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the investment potential of various companies in the context of industry trends and technological advancements, particularly in sectors like automotive, PCB, and energy [3][9][20]. Group 2 - Double Lin Co., Ltd. (300100.SZ) is positioned to benefit from the integration of screw grinding equipment and processes, with a projected net profit of 534 million, 647 million, and 811 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]. - The PCB industry is experiencing a capital expenditure wave driven by strong AI computing demand, with domestic PCB equipment manufacturers expected to see sustained order growth [9]. - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (600938.SH/0883.HK) is expected to achieve net profits of 135.4 billion, 139.8 billion, and 144.3 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, benefiting from effective cost control and production growth [20]. - The strategic partnership between Mao Ge Ping (1318.HK) and the global investment firm Ru Wei Kai is aimed at enhancing global market expansion and operational efficiency [23]. - The merger between China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation and China Aviation Oil Group is anticipated to enhance the competitiveness of the refined oil business through an integrated supply chain [27].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to soon rule on the legality of Trump's tariff package, with a high probability of ruling it illegal based on significant legal flaws in Trump's tax rationale, as indicated by a 76% market expectation of his defeat [4]. Group 1: Speculation on Legal Outcomes - Speculation One: The likelihood of Trump's global tariff case being ruled illegal is high due to major legal flaws in his tax rationale, with market expectations showing a 76% probability of defeat [4]. Group 2: Government Response to Potential Defeat - Speculation Two: If the tariff ruling is unfavorable, the Trump administration may respond in two phases: short-term invocation of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose tariffs up to 15% for a maximum of 150 days, and long-term initiation of Section 301/232 investigations to transition from court-stopped tariffs to trade investigation-based tariffs, with considerations for a 301 investigation against the EU [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions to Tariff Ruling - Speculation Three: - The impact on U.S. stocks is expected to be neutral to slightly positive, benefiting tariff-sensitive sectors like manufacturing and retail, while considering the uncertainty of targeted tax increases from future investigations [6]. - In the bond market, the U.S. Treasury's TGA account balance is sufficient to mitigate refund pressures, with short-term issuance pressures remaining low. The key factors for Q1 2026 bond trends will be the government shutdown risk and economic/inflation rebound, although long-term uncertainty regarding tariff revenues may increase debt deficit pressures and bond risk premiums [6]. - The effect on gold prices is complex; while the elimination of tariff policy uncertainty may negatively impact gold, a decline in tariff revenues could undermine dollar credibility, potentially benefiting gold. Current gold price movements are becoming less sensitive to the dollar, U.S. bonds, and interest rate cuts, and are more influenced by geopolitical developments [6].