本文模型包含宏观经济、货币政策、市场情绪等输入变量来丰富学习维度，在长短期记忆神经网络（LSTM） 的基础上，引入门控神经网络（GRU）、卷积神经网络（CNN）和注意力机制（ATT）构建多层混合神经网 络模型，最优模型预测：相较于2026年1月末，2月末的十年期国债收益率将下行约3个BP；相较于2025年底， 2026年底十年期国债收益率将下行约6个BP。 （张旭）2026-01-12 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【固收】引入混合神经网络的中长期国债收益率预测——量化学习笔记之二 重点城市 25 年二手房均价：北京 28,194 元/㎡，同比+2.6%；上海 36,962 元/㎡，同比-4.4%；广州 25,832 元/㎡，同比-7.1%；深圳 5 ...

Group 1: Short Drama Market Overview - The domestic short drama market is expected to reach RMB 63.43 billion by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 26%, and projected to grow to RMB 85.65 billion by 2027, resulting in a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.2% from 2025 to 2027 [4] - The supply of short dramas is increasing, with the number of new dramas rising from 34,600 in 2024 to 39,600 in the first half of 2025; however, competition for high-quality productions is intensifying, with average production costs for ordinary short dramas ranging from RMB 400,000 to 700,000, and S-level top dramas costing between RMB 1.5 million to 3 million [4] - The overseas short drama market is set for significant growth, with revenues expected to soar to USD 2.38 billion in 2025, and downloads projected to exceed 1.21 billion, marking year-on-year increases of 263% and 135% respectively [4] Group 2: AI-Driven Comic Drama Market - The year 2025 is anticipated to be the inaugural year for AI comic dramas in China, leveraging online literature IPs and AI tools for script generation, character modeling, scene design, and voice synthesis, resulting in a unique content form that combines comic visuals with short drama narratives [5] - The market for AI comic dramas is projected to exceed RMB 20 billion in 2025, with an expected 46,931 new comic dramas launched, showcasing exponential growth, particularly in the latter half of the year [5] - Major companies are increasingly supporting the comic drama sector, with the launch of the free comic drama app by Hongguo marking a significant event, prompting platforms like iQIYI, Tencent Video, and Bilibili to enhance collaboration with content producers [6] Group 3: Production Efficiency and Cost Reduction - AI technology is integrated throughout the entire production process of comic dramas in 2025, enhancing efficiency from planning to post-production, allowing for a production capacity of "60 episodes in 20 days with 15 people," and reducing the cost per minute of production to RMB 400, with production cycles shortened to 10-13 days [7]

Market Overview - The A-share pharmaceutical and biotechnology index rose by 7.81%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.03 percentage points and the ChiNext index by 2.10 percentage points, ranking 6th among 31 sub-industries [4] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Healthcare Index increased by 10.26%, surpassing the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 11.57 percentage points [4] R&D Progress - Yiming Anke's IMM2510 and Tida Pexip's clinical application have made new progress in undertaking [5] - Drug Jie's Tiengoteini is currently in Phase III clinical trials; Shiyao Group's SYS6017 is in Phase II clinical trials; and Shiyao Group's SYH2085 is in Phase I clinical trials [5] Sector Insights - The brain-computer interface sector has shown active performance, entering an industrialization critical point, with major countries like China and the U.S. launching support plans [6] - China's 14th Five-Year Plan identifies brain-computer interfaces as one of the six future industries, with goals set for technological breakthroughs by 2027 and the formation of an industrial ecosystem by 2030 [6] - The global brain market is projected to reach $7.63 billion by 2029, indicating a rapidly opening blue ocean market [6] - Three categories of investment targets are recommended: 1) Medical scene integrators benefiting from insurance payment integration and existing rehabilitation needs 2) Leaders in invasive/semi-invasive technologies with significant technical advantages and long-term potential 3) Comprehensive support providers focusing on high-certainty areas like supply chain production and clinical development [6] Investment Strategy - Future investments in the pharmaceutical sector should increasingly focus on the clinical value of medicines, addressing clinical needs of patients and doctors [7] - Both domestic medical insurance policies and global expansion strategies are placing higher premiums on clinical value [7] - The strategy emphasizes the innovative drug industry chain and innovative medical devices [7]

Market Overview - The SW public utility sector increased by 2.54%, ranking 23rd among 31 SW primary sectors, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.82% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.4% [4] - Sub-sectors such as thermal power, hydropower, photovoltaic power, wind power, and gas saw increases of 2.4%, 0.7%, 3.9%, 2.6%, and 4.8% respectively [4] Price Updates - Domestic Qinhuangdao port 5500 kcal thermal coal price rose by 12 CNY/ton, surpassing 700 CNY/ton, while imported thermal coal from Fangchenggang increased by 5 CNY/ton [5] - The average settlement price for Guangdong's spot electricity was 304.82 CNY/MWh, down from 331.78 CNY/MWh the previous week [5] - Shanxi's spot clearing price averaged 144.84 CNY/MWh, a decrease from 279.73 CNY/MWh the previous week [5] Key Events - Annual long-term contract electricity prices for 2026 were disclosed, with Shanghai at 0.430 CNY/kWh (+3.41% from baseline), and Guangdong at 0.372 CNY/kWh (-17.88% from baseline) [6] - The National Energy Administration reported that the photovoltaic utilization rate was 93.7% in November, down from 94.8% in October, while wind power utilization was 93.1% [6] Industry Insights - The annual long-term contract bidding results indicate a significant increase in profitability for national thermal power operators due to a decrease in thermal coal prices [7] - The electricity price remains a critical factor, with expectations of continued pressure on prices despite a favorable supply situation [7] - The green electricity sector is expected to see valuation recovery due to policy support and accelerated green electricity subsidies [7]

Group 1: Oil and Gas Industry - The geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Iran have increased, leading to a rise in the geopolitical risk premium for oil, resulting in higher oil prices. As of January 9, 2026, Brent and WTI crude oil futures closed at $63.02 and $58.78 per barrel, reflecting increases of 3.7% and 2.5% respectively compared to the previous week. The long-term supply-demand dynamics for crude oil remain favorable, supporting a positive outlook for major oil companies and oil service sectors [5]. Group 2: Utilities Sector - The SW Utilities sector index rose by 2.54%, ranking 23rd among 31 SW primary sectors. In comparison, the CSI 300 index increased by 2.79%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.82%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.4%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.89%. Within the sub-sectors, thermal power increased by 2.4%, hydropower by 0.7%, photovoltaic power by 3.9%, wind power by 2.6%, comprehensive energy services by 2.51%, and gas by 4.8% [5]. Group 3: Internet and Media Industry - The animated drama sector is expected to take over from live-action short dramas, with a significant release of IP value anticipated. The industry has shown strong growth in 2025, and it is projected that the market will continue to expand rapidly in 2026, driven by the mature application of AI video models like Kexi, which offer low costs, high production capacity, and strong visual impact [6]. Group 4: Copper Market - The market has priced in the expectation that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates in January 2026. The TC spot price has hit a new low, indicating ongoing tightness in copper concentrate procurement. The operating rate of cable companies continues to decline, and domestic social inventory is on the rise. Despite the recent surge in copper prices, demand is expected to be under pressure. However, the supply-demand situation remains tight, leading to a continued bullish outlook for copper prices in 2026 [7].

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： （1）委内瑞拉方面，本周美国加强对委内瑞拉原油的禁运行动，扣押计划运输委内瑞拉原油的"贝拉1号"游 轮，但美国参议院投票限制对委内瑞拉动武，特朗普取消对委第二轮打击计划，未来美国对委事务的重心将放 在控制该国石油生产和销售上，计划由美国石油公司在委内瑞拉投资至少1000亿美元。（2）伊朗方面，本周 抗议和骚乱在伊朗蔓延，全国范围内出现互联网和移动通信服务中断，美国或将军事介入。2025年1-11月伊朗 原油月均产量为327万桶/日，若伊朗局势进一步升级，可能对伊朗原油生产和出口造成重大影响。长期来看， 国际局势持续动荡，地缘政治的不确定性有望为油价景气奠定基础。 OPEC+暂停增产计划，体现平衡油价诉求 上周OPEC+举行简短会议，避开讨论影响该产油国集团多个成员国的政治危机，最终决定维持石油产量不 变。2025年11月，OPEC+总产量为4306.5万桶/日，较2025年1月增长244万桶/日，OPEC+产量的大幅扩增是 2025年原油市场波动的主因之一，而25Q4以来OPEC+转而降低扩产速度，体现其平衡油价的意愿。OPEC+未 来有望根据原油市场变化决定原油产量 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the urgency for domestic substitution of semiconductor materials due to recent export control measures imposed by the Ministry of Commerce on Japan, which includes a ban on dual-use items and an anti-dumping investigation on DCS, a key electronic chemical material for chip manufacturing [4] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions between China and Japan are likely to escalate, increasing the probability of Japan retaliating with further export controls, which would heighten uncertainties in the domestic semiconductor supply chain [4] Group 2 - Global semiconductor sales are projected to grow significantly in 2025, driven by demand from AI computing, data centers, and smart driving, with an expected sales figure of approximately $687.4 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.7% [5] - The production capacity for 12-inch wafers is expected to reach 11.1 million pieces per month by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 7% from 2024 to 2028, while advanced process capacity (7nm and below) is anticipated to grow from 850,000 to 1.4 million pieces per month, with a CAGR of 14% [5] Group 3 - The demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is rapidly increasing due to the needs of data centers and AI processors, leading to a significant rise in semiconductor material consumption [6] - The global semiconductor materials market is expected to reach approximately $70 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 6%, and is projected to exceed $87 billion by 2029 [6] - In China, the market for key materials is forecasted to reach 174.1 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 21.1% [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in credit bond issuance in the primary market, with a total of 332 bonds issued, amounting to 312.27 billion yuan, representing a 306.00% increase compared to the previous period [4][5] - In terms of issuance scale, industrial bonds accounted for 135.37 billion yuan, a 295.92% increase, while urban investment bonds reached 138.91 billion yuan, a 409.86% increase, together making up 43.35% and 44.48% of the total issuance respectively [4][5] - The average issuance term for credit bonds was 2.73 years, with industrial bonds averaging 1.88 years and urban investment bonds averaging 3.24 years [4] Group 2 - The average coupon rate for credit bonds was 2.22%, with industrial bonds at 2.06%, urban investment bonds at 2.32%, and financial bonds at 1.71% [5] - In the secondary market, credit spreads varied by industry, with the largest increase in AAA-rated food and beverage sector by 2.1 basis points, while the largest decrease was in the communication sector by 8.3 basis points [6] - The total trading volume of credit bonds reached 1,403.85 billion yuan, a 121.26% increase, with commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium-term notes being the top three in trading volume [7]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is expected to remain tight in 2026, supporting upward price movement despite current demand pressures [4]. Supply and Demand - As of January 9, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 101,410 CNY/ton, up 3.23% from January 2, while LME copper closed at 12,998 USD/ton, up 4.31% [4]. - The TC spot price has hit a record low, indicating tight procurement of copper concentrate [4]. - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 14.6% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 2.5% [5]. - The copper supply from China in October 2025 was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and 12.1% year-on-year [6]. Inventory Levels - Domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 640,000 tons as of January 9, 2026, down 0.8% from the previous week [5]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 838,000 tons, up 6.2% from December 31 [5]. Smelting and Processing - The TC spot price was -45.1 USD/ton as of January 9, 2026, marking a historical low [7]. - China's electrolytic copper production in December 2025 was 1.1781 million tons, up 6.8% month-on-month and 7.5% year-on-year [7]. Demand Trends - Cable manufacturing, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw a weekly operating rate of 56.58%, down 2.37 percentage points [9]. - Air conditioning production, representing about 13% of domestic copper demand, is projected to decline by 11.4% in January to March 2026 [9]. Futures Market - As of January 9, 2026, SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 12.8% week-on-week, with a total of 189,000 contracts [10]. - COMEX non-commercial net long positions were 58,000 contracts, down 3.3% from the previous week [10].

Group 1: Small Nucleic Acid Drugs - Small nucleic acid drugs, primarily SiRNA and ASO, are entering a rapid growth phase from technological breakthroughs to large-scale commercialization [2] - The global market for small nucleic acid drugs grew from $0.1 billion in 2016 to $3.25 billion in 2021, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 217.8% [2] - It is projected that the global oligonucleotide drug market will exceed $15 billion by 2026, with a CAGR of 35% from 2020 to 2025 [2] Group 2: Blue Sky Technology - Blue Sky Technology has established a comprehensive "synthesis-purification" supply capability for small nucleic acids (siRNA/ASO) and peptide drugs [3] - The company has developed proprietary solid-phase synthesis materials and has built a technical platform that integrates high-difficulty oligonucleotide synthesis and impurity separation [3] - Blue Sky Technology plans to invest 1.15 billion yuan to build a GMP/like GMP standard biopharmaceutical industrial park and has established a subsidiary in Sweden to enhance global technical collaboration [3] Group 3: Lianhua Technology - Lianhua Technology is rapidly expanding into the small nucleic acid business, leveraging its established small molecule CDMO system [4] - The global CDMO/CMO market is expected to exceed $120 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 9.5% [4] - The company has made significant progress in international market expansion and has deepened R&D collaborations with leading global pharmaceutical companies [4]