对话 / 吴晓波 × 廖信嘉 整理 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 2025年中国奢侈品市场规模预计突破 8000亿元 人民币，占据全球 25%消费份额。然而繁荣背后暗藏结构性困境：贝恩报告显示，本土品牌在高 端市场占比不足2%，中国消费者对文化叙事溢价接受度较欧美市场低27个百分点。 当 Z世代 将奢侈品购物袋替换为环保布袋、高净值人群资产配置转向硬通货时，行业正经历从炫耀性消费到精神共鸣的价值跃迁。 作为这一变革的亲历者与推动者，廖信嘉的职业生涯恰是奢侈品行业的镜鉴。 2001年，他作为瑞士腕表品牌宝珀 BLANCPAIN 进驻中国市场的 001号员工，在王府井亨得利钟表店的角落支起第一个展柜。彼时 大多经销商 只认 "镶钻的满天星"，而宝珀坚持只做机械表的执念则显得格格不 入。 二十五年间，他从在哈尔滨零下三十度街头拓客的销售代表，成长为执掌品牌中国命脉的操盘手，亲历了奢侈品行业从 "浮华时代"到"静奢审 美"的全过程，也将这个创立于1735年的瑞士腕表品牌，从 鲜为人知 的 "小众品牌"发展为圈内有口皆碑的 高级制表代表品牌 "天地良心珀"。 其主导的文化营销策略 ——以吴晓波、梁文道、 冯远征 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of Sino-U.S. relations as a decisive factor for China's economic development, highlighting the historical context and future trends of the ongoing geopolitical rivalry [1][4]. Group 1: Sino-U.S. Relations - The recent phone call between the leaders of China and the U.S. conveyed positive signals, with both sides recognizing the outcomes of the Geneva economic talks and agreeing to continue implementing the consensus [2][3]. - Despite the temporary agreement, the U.S. has quickly resumed its confrontational stance in technology and education sectors, indicating that the trade conflict may not be resolved easily [5][6]. - The structural contradictions in the U.S. economy, particularly the decline of domestic manufacturing and the rise of multinational corporations, have fueled the trade tensions, which are seen as a long-term geopolitical necessity rather than purely ideological [7][8]. Group 2: Future Trends and Strategies - The ongoing trade war is evolving into a significant geopolitical struggle that will reshape global industrial patterns, presenting both challenges and opportunities for businesses [16][20]. - Companies are encouraged to proactively adapt by refining their products and technologies to maintain competitiveness and exploring diversified market strategies to mitigate risks [17][18]. - Understanding the logic and future direction of Sino-U.S. relations will be crucial for businesses to navigate the complexities of the global market and identify new growth opportunities [15][19]. Group 3: Educational Initiatives - The "2025 Wu Xiaobo Lecture" series aims to help entrepreneurs understand the essence of current conflicts and future trends in Sino-U.S. relations, featuring insights from experts like Chen Gong [22][23]. - The lectures will cover historical contexts and the underlying logic of Sino-U.S. relations, providing a comprehensive view of the ongoing geopolitical dynamics [24][25].

Core Viewpoint - The changes in college majors reflect a subtle shift in the life trajectories of 13.35 million examinees, indicating a transformation in higher education and job market demands [1][49]. Group 1: Examination Trends - The number of candidates for this year's college entrance examination decreased by 70,000 compared to last year, marking the first decline in a decade [3]. - The new "3+1+2" examination model, which does not differentiate between arts and sciences, has been adopted by eight provinces, changing the admission rules from "institution priority" to "major group locking" [4]. Group 2: Major Evolution - The emergence of new majors and the phasing out of traditional ones are redefining the "windfall" in higher education. The Ministry of Education announced 29 new undergraduate majors, including low-altitude technology, artificial intelligence education, and carbon neutrality science [5]. - Many top-tier universities are discontinuing traditional majors such as tourism management and marketing, indicating a shift in educational focus [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Over 90% of examinees are willing to use college entrance examination volunteer filling services, with the paid market expected to reach 1.09 billion yuan by 2025 [6]. - Major tech companies like Baidu and Tencent are launching "AI volunteer filling" tools, competing with traditional high-cost consulting services [6][7]. Group 4: Popular Majors and Employment Trends - An analysis of popular majors from 2007, 2015, and 2023 shows that there are no consistently popular "evergreen" majors, with shifts reflecting societal needs [10]. - By 2025, universities like Peking University and Wuhan University are expanding enrollment in fields such as information science and artificial intelligence, aligning with industry demands [15]. Group 5: Interdisciplinary Studies - The concept of interdisciplinary studies is gaining traction, with 239 universities offering 723 interdisciplinary programs, primarily in artificial intelligence and related fields [30]. - The focus on interdisciplinary studies is seen as a response to the evolving job market and the emergence of new productive forces [34]. Group 6: Salary and Employment Correlation - There is a notable disconnect between popular majors and high-paying jobs, as the correlation between industry growth and salary increases varies significantly [35][41]. - The computer industry, for example, has seen a rise in salary growth, which has influenced the popularity of related majors, but this does not guarantee future high salaries [44][45].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the conflict between Elon Musk and Donald Trump, highlighting the implications of the "Beautiful Bill" and the 899 clause, which grants Trump significant power to impose taxes on foreign entities, potentially escalating into a global financial war [1][28][29]. Group 1: The "Beautiful Bill" - The "Beautiful Bill" aims to reduce taxes by approximately $4.6 trillion over the next decade while increasing the national deficit by $3.2 trillion, which represents a 15% increase [12][13]. - It proposes a $1.6 trillion spending cut, primarily affecting medical assistance programs, which could harm low-income individuals [13][26]. - The bill's tax cuts are skewed towards high-income groups, with low-income individuals benefiting less, creating a paradoxical outcome [14]. Group 2: The 899 Clause - The 899 clause allows the U.S. government to impose additional taxes on foreign entities if they are deemed to have discriminatory tax practices against U.S. businesses [29][30]. - It specifically targets three types of taxes: digital services tax, profit-shifting tax, and OECD global minimum tax, which could affect many countries, particularly in the EU [31][33]. - The clause grants the U.S. Treasury Secretary broad authority to define what constitutes "unfair taxation," effectively giving the government "unlimited firepower" in trade disputes [34]. Group 3: Implications for Foreign Investment - The implementation of the 899 clause could lead to significant financial repercussions for foreign investors, including increased taxation on dividends and interest, potentially reducing their returns on U.S. investments [36][38]. - The clause may deter foreign investment in the U.S., as investors might sell off U.S. assets in response to perceived threats, leading to a decline in the stock market and an increase in U.S. Treasury yields [40][41]. - Analysts predict that the stock market could drop by 10% and the dollar could depreciate by up to 5% if the 899 clause is fully enacted [41]. Group 4: Impact on Tesla and the Clean Energy Sector - The "Beautiful Bill" threatens Tesla's profitability by planning to phase out tax credits for electric vehicles, which could significantly impact Tesla's earnings [23][24]. - The conflict between Musk and Trump reflects broader tensions between traditional energy interests and the clean energy sector, with potential implications for future legislation [45][46].

Group 1: Global Manufacturing PMI - The global manufacturing PMI for May is 49.2%, indicating a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, but it remains below the expansion threshold for three consecutive months, reflecting weak economic momentum [1] - In Asia, the manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion zone at 50.4%, while the Americas, Africa, and Europe remain in contraction [1] - The US manufacturing PMI for May is 48.5%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking a four-month decline [2][1] Group 2: US Trade Deficit - The US trade deficit in April narrowed significantly by 55.5% to $61.6 billion, the lowest level in 2023, reversing the trend of widening deficits seen in the first quarter [3] - Imports fell by a record 16.3% in April, while exports increased by 3%, indicating a shift in trade dynamics due to tariff policies [3] - The trade deficit with China decreased to $19.7 billion, the lowest since March 2020, while deficits with Canada and Mexico also shrank [3] Group 3: European Central Bank Actions - The European Central Bank (ECB) announced a 25 basis point cut in key interest rates, marking the eighth rate cut since June of the previous year, with the main refinancing rate now at 2% [5] - Eurozone inflation rates have decreased, with the harmonized CPI for May falling to 1.9%, the first time below 2% since September 2024 [5] - The ECB signaled a potential end to the rate-cutting cycle, as economic conditions stabilize and inflation pressures ease [6][5] Group 4: Domestic Appliance Subsidy Adjustments - Several regions in China have suspended or adjusted the "national subsidy" for replacing old appliances due to the depletion of available funds [8] - The subsidy program has been popular among residents, but its recent suspension may be a temporary measure as new funding is being planned [9] - The impact of the subsidy on stimulating domestic demand has been significant, but broader recovery in consumer spending is still needed [9] Group 5: Didi's Financial Performance - Didi reported a revenue of 53.26 billion yuan for Q1 2025, an 8.5% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.36 billion yuan, up 188.14% from the previous year [10] - The total order volume for Didi's domestic ride-hailing services increased by 10.3% year-on-year, while international orders grew by 24.9% [10] - The improvement in profitability is attributed to higher order volumes and a reduction in losses from overseas operations [11][10] Group 6: Precious Metals Price Surge - Silver prices have surged past $36, reaching the highest level since February 2012, while platinum prices also hit a two-year high at $1,154.73 per ounce [12] - Over the past year, silver and platinum have increased by 19% and 13%, respectively, while gold has risen by 42% [12] - The price increases are linked to industrial demand, with silver being crucial for solar panels and platinum used in automotive catalysts [12] Group 7: Market Overview - The stock market experienced mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,385.36 points, up 0.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.19% [17] - Market activity was characterized by a lack of clear direction, with various sectors showing both gains and losses [17] - The recent market movements are influenced by expectations of future policy support and ongoing trade negotiations [18]

点击按钮▲ 预约直播 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 一直以来，在全球制造业体系里，瑞士制造给世界的形象都非常独特，它不像美国制造动辄输出20个国际品牌，也不像日本制造分分钟输出20 套企业管理办法，但它早已旗帜鲜明地在人们心中建立起高品质的品牌形象。 十多年前，吴老师曾前往位于瑞士的汝拉山谷，这座不起眼的瑞士村落里，集合了全世界最知名的钟表匠。出生于汝拉山谷的青年人有九成以上 加入钟表学校学习技艺，钟表有40多个工种分工，渐渐地形成为了一个制造生态。当今的世界级豪表都向往在此地设有工厂，超过一半的豪表 机芯出产于此。 也就在那一年，他结识了廖信嘉，瑞士腕表品牌宝珀BLANCPAIN在中国市场的001号员工。 6月6日晚，两位多年好友将相聚吴晓波频道视频号直播间，展开一场名为《品牌如何穿越周期》的对话。 这次，廖信嘉还将带来他刚刚出版的 新书《在时间中修行：我的奢侈品从业25年》 ，书中首次完整记录了他带领宝珀在中国市场从零起步的历 程，以及他对奢侈品行业的深度思考，这本书不仅是个人职业生涯的总结，更是一部关于品牌长期主义的实战指南。 正如他在书中写的那样： "我们不是在卖商品，而是在传递一种对时间 ...

｜点评｜ 从去年后半年开始，美国ADP就业人数增长就开始放缓。今年美国经济增速正在从此前的修复转向降温，新增就业岗位减少是正常现 象。与此同时，美国失业率维持在低位，就业市场接近充分就业的状态。然而，5月ADP就业人数远低于市场预期。 点击报名 ▲科学出海 中央财政拟支持20城实施城市更新 6月4日，财政部公示2025年城市更新行动评审结果，北京等20个城市入选。未来几年，中央财政计划补助超过200亿元，支持这20个城市实施城 市更新行动，探索建立可持续的城市更新机制，补齐城市基础设施的短板弱项。从资金支持方向来看，中央财政资金主要支持城市更新的样板项 目建设和机制建设这两个方向。 自2019年中央经济工作会议首次提出城市更新以来，中国城市更新行动持续推进。住房和城乡建设部数据显示，2024年，全国共实施城市更新 项目6万余个，完成投资约2.9万亿元。（上海证券报） ｜点评｜ 城市更新项目改善了老旧城区居民的居住环境，还能通过基建项目为相关产业链注入新的需求，加速国内经济修复。早期城市建设受 限于当时技术、资金等，部分城区在居住环境方面只能说是不尽如人意。 城市更新项目通过中央和地方政府牵头注资，带动社会资本 ...

点击按钮▲立即试听 " 当智慧化和生态化成为一种生态位竞争时，中国人的家变了，卖货的逻辑变了，店的定义也变了。 " 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 从 2022年开始，吴老师一直和机器及工厂打交道，自诩为一名"工厂博主"。如今，随着"首店经济""首发经济"概念的兴起，吴老师脱下工服，走 进了更年轻的"探店"赛道，成了一名兼职"探店博主"。 前不久，吴老师探访了三翼鸟联合博洛尼打造的成都首家城市体验中心 —— 富森美天府直播港三翼鸟店。 在《激荡三十年》中，吴老师将 1984年定义为"中国企业元年"，第二年，刚成立一年的海尔，其创始人张瑞敏号召拿着这把大锤，将76台不合格 的冰箱砸烂，此举被吴老师视为"中国企业质量意识觉醒的标志性事件"。 诞生于2020年的三翼鸟，是海尔智家旗下全球首个场景品牌，为用户提供一体化的智慧家庭解决方案。短短5年时间里，三翼鸟全国开了3000多家 门店，日活突破千万，柜电一体门店零售额呈10倍增长。 而博洛尼专注研究中高端生活方式，立足于"大师设计""德国品质""变态级环保"等核心优势，为用户提供家居全系统解决方案。 两者共同打造的这家体验店占地 2300平方米，总共五层， ...

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - OECD has downgraded the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.9%, with the US growth expectation slashed from 2.8% to 1.6% [1] - The economic outlook is pessimistic due to rising trade barriers and a decline in consumer spending in the US, impacting global growth [1] - Major economies like China, Europe, and Japan are also experiencing varying degrees of economic slowdown this year [1] Group 2: US Economic Policy Changes - The US government is shifting its focus away from non-US countries, canceling preferential tariffs and imposing new tariffs to boost domestic revenue [2] - This shift aims to stimulate domestic economic activity and enhance internal circulation capabilities [2] Group 3: Shenzhen AI Terminal Funding - Shenzhen's government has launched a funding program for the smart terminal industry, with a maximum grant of 20 million yuan available for various AI-related projects [3] - The funding focuses on the development and promotion of innovative consumer electronics, including smartphones and AI devices [3][4] Group 4: Japanese Demographic Trends - Japan's birth rate is projected to fall below 700,000 in 2024, marking a 5.7% decrease from the previous year, with a total fertility rate dropping to a historic low of 1.15 [9] - Despite increased marriage rates, the overall trend of declining birth rates continues, exacerbated by high living costs and a demanding work culture [9] Group 5: US Treasury Bond Buyback - The US Treasury conducted a record $10 billion buyback of government bonds, the largest single operation in history [7] - This move aims to stabilize the bond market and restore confidence amid rising concerns over the US deficit [8] Group 6: Honey Snow Group Stock Performance - Honey Snow Group's stock has reached new highs due to expected benefits from delivery platform subsidies, prompting an upward revision of profit forecasts by Goldman Sachs [11] - The competitive landscape in the instant tea beverage market is intensifying, with potential for further price wars driven by delivery subsidies [12] Group 7: Accounting Firms and Regulatory Changes - Three accounting firms have voluntarily ceased their securities service operations, reflecting stricter regulatory requirements and past penalties for misconduct [13][14] - The new regulations aim to enhance transparency and accountability within the accounting industry, particularly regarding the auditing of public companies [15] Group 8: Market Trends - The stock market showed signs of recovery with significant trading volume, particularly in consumer sectors, indicating a potential shift towards domestic consumption [16] - The market is at a critical juncture, with the Shanghai Composite Index struggling to break through the 3400-point psychological barrier [17]

点击图片▲立即试听 " 全球加速推动稳定币立法的背后，是希望利用稳定币来巩固美元主导地位的美国，和尝试 ' 去美元化 ' 的其他国家。 " 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 最近，身边很多人都在讨论一个新东西：稳定币。 尤其进入5月，中美欧好像排练好了一样，先后抛出稳定币监管重磅文件。 5月20日，美国参议院通过了《指导和确立美国稳定币国家创新法案》关键程序性投票，即"天才法案"，可能在年底前完成立法。 仅仅过了一天，中国香港通过了《稳定币条例草案》，前两天经过宪报刊登，该草案正式成为法例，叫做《稳定币条例》。中国香港成为全球首个 对法币稳定币实施全链条监管的司法管辖区，随后引发一波相关题材的港股暴涨。 看似香港"光速"立法，但如果把时间轴往前拉，这股"风暴"已经在多个国家酝酿多时—— 5月，英国发布了关于稳定币发行、加密资产托管及加密资产公司财务稳健性的监管提案；3月，日本细化了加密资产及稳定币的监管调整；去年 12月，欧洲《加密资产市场监管法案》正式成为法律…… 问题来了：稳定币到底是什么？这背后是币圈的热潮，还是大国博弈的新战线？ 美国财政部长贝森特在3月的白宫首次数字资产峰会上"透露"了意图： ...