吴晓波频道
Search documents
中国版“英伟达”,一股难求
吴晓波频道· 2025-11-27 00:29
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of domestic GPU companies in China, particularly focusing on Moer Thread, which is dubbed the "Chinese version of Nvidia." It highlights the significant interest in the domestic GPU market driven by the narrative of "domestic substitution" amid increasing geopolitical tensions and technological competition [3][8][29]. Group 1: Company Overview - Moer Thread is recognized as the first domestic GPU company to go public, with its stock subscription on November 24 attracting 4.82 million valid applications and a subscription multiple of 4,126 times, indicating high demand [3][6]. - The company aims to raise 8 billion yuan through its IPO, which is the largest fundraising target for a project under review on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board this year [8][9]. - Moer Thread's stock price is set at 114.28 yuan per share, making it the highest-priced IPO of the year, with an estimated market capitalization of 53.7 billion yuan upon listing [8][9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The global GPU market is currently dominated by Nvidia and AMD, but several Chinese companies, including Moer Thread, are emerging as competitors, forming a multi-tiered industry structure [12][13]. - The demand for domestic GPUs surged after the U.S. imposed export restrictions on Chinese tech companies, prompting a wave of entrepreneurship in the GPU sector [14][15]. - The article notes that the domestic GPU market is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market size of 120 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a 12% year-on-year growth [29]. Group 3: Performance and Challenges - Despite the promising growth, many domestic GPU companies, including Moer Thread, have faced financial difficulties, with significant losses reported in recent years [42][43]. - The article highlights that Moer Thread has not yet achieved profitability, with losses of 1.894 billion yuan in 2022, 1.703 billion yuan in 2023, and 1.618 billion yuan in 2024 [42]. - The reliance on a few major clients for revenue is a concern, as over 90% of Moer Thread's revenue comes from its top five customers, primarily government projects [38][39]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - Domestic GPU companies have made strides in technology, with Moer Thread's products covering various applications from intelligent computing centers to gaming graphics cards [33][34]. - The article emphasizes the importance of software ecosystems, noting that Moer Thread has developed a software platform comparable to Nvidia's CUDA, which is crucial for attracting developers [35][36]. - However, there remains a significant gap in manufacturing processes and energy efficiency compared to Nvidia, with domestic GPUs generally having higher power consumption [35][36]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The narrative of "long-term investment" is crucial for the domestic GPU industry, as companies like Moer Thread and others are expected to continue facing challenges while striving for technological breakthroughs [41][52]. - The supportive policy environment and the potential for high growth in the AI sector provide a favorable backdrop for the continued development of domestic GPU companies [49][50].
中企非洲落地率不足1%?折射中非深层错配|卓立出海谈
吴晓波频道· 2025-11-27 00:29
立即点击 ▲ 观看视频 文 / 卓立(微信公众号:吴晓波频道) 面对非洲市场,为何不少中国企业纷纷碰壁,甚至落地率不足1%?为何欧美企业却能稳扎稳 打、深耕于此? 在非洲一线考察的过程中,我碰到一个特别的女孩,她叫郝瑛笛:新疆姑娘,广州上学,非洲 工作。 初见郝瑛笛,她是以肯尼亚最大的外资工业园中国区招商经理的身份接待我们。 非洲七年的工作,两家中资、一家欧洲企业的从业经历,她见证了两家中资在当地市场的失败 尝试,也看到了欧美企业在当地的成熟经验。而每年200家中资企业的接待,让她对出海非洲的 企业有了更立体的观察。 更难能可贵的是,郝瑛笛深入其中,却时刻保持着对肯尼亚市场的特殊结构、长期主义的核心 价值、非洲出海的困境与机会等清醒的观察。 这次的对话,我尝试顺着郝瑛笛的视角,从中非商业逻辑、市场生态与运营节奏的深层错位出 发,探索真实的非洲出海一线。 1 中企入非的落地困境 卓立: 你之前入职的两家企业,在非洲发展都不算特别顺利吗? 回过头看,你觉得主要是因为 什么? 郝瑛笛: 对,都不顺利。我个人认为最大的原因,就是战略布局和本土文化的冲突。其实非洲 这个地方,和我们想象的还是不一样的,并不是说你把先进的 ...
卫星物联网进入商用试验,万科债券盘中临时停牌 | 财经日日评
吴晓波频道· 2025-11-27 00:29
点击按钮▲立即预约 工信部组织开展卫星物联网商用试验 11月26日消息,工业和信息化部发布关于组织开展卫星物联网业务商用试验的通知。通过开展卫星物联网业务商用试验,丰富卫星通信市场供 给、激发市场主体活力、提升行业服务能力、建立安全监管体系,形成可复制可推广的经验和模式,支持商业航天、低空经济等新兴产业安全健 康发展。 美国消费者信心跌至五年来次低水平 11月26日消息,美国商务部数据显示,美国9月零售销售额仅增长0.2%,远低于华尔街预期,结束了此前数月的加速势头。世界大型企业联合会 11月消费者信心指数从上月的95.5骤降至88.7,为五年来第二低读数,仅高于今年4月水平。此前公布的通胀数据显示,美国批发价格在截至9月 的12个月中上涨2.7%,高于市场预期。劳动力市场显示出越来越明显的疲软迹象。失业率在9月触及4.4%的四年高点,而今年大部分时间招聘活 动 一直疲软。 特朗普总统周二在白宫的火鸡赦免仪式上坚称物价正在下降,尽管数据显示情况恰恰相反。"这个感恩节,我们也在让美国重新变得负担得起方 面取得了令人难以置信的进展,"特朗普说,"我们已经降到了很长时间没见过的水平。"(华尔街见闻) |点评| 就业 ...
充电宝3C认证或将失效,97%个人养老基金获正收益 | 财经日日评
吴晓波频道· 2025-11-26 00:30
Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a 1 trillion yuan MLF operation on November 25, with a one-year term, resulting in a net injection of 100 billion yuan for the month, marking the ninth consecutive month of increased MLF operations [2] - The combined net injection from MLF and reverse repos in November reached 600 billion yuan, maintaining liquidity levels consistent with the previous month [2] - The central bank's monetary policy has become more precise and balanced, with cautious use of traditional tools, indicating a potential for rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions by year-end [3] Personal Pension Funds - As of November 23, 2025, 97% of personal pension funds have achieved positive returns, with 296 out of 305 Y-share funds yielding positive results since inception [4] - The performance of index-type Y-share funds has significantly outperformed, with 13 funds exceeding a 30% return and four funds surpassing 40% [4] - Despite the overall positive performance, there remains a gap between the actual performance of personal pension funds and investor expectations, particularly in terms of stability versus profitability [5][6] Charging Battery Regulations - New safety standards for mobile power banks are expected to be published in December 2023, with implementation set for June 2026, leading to the invalidation of existing 3C certifications [7] - Compliance with the new standards is projected to increase manufacturing costs by approximately 30%, impacting the profitability of charging battery manufacturers [7][8] AI Industry Developments - Alphabet's market capitalization is nearing $4 trillion, driven by advancements in AI technologies, including the Gemini 3 model and new TPU developments, with a stock price increase of nearly 69% this year [9] - OpenAI has launched a free AI shopping search feature, enhancing its commercial capabilities and aiming to drive incremental sales for e-commerce platforms [11][12] - Nvidia has issued a detailed memo refuting allegations of financial misrepresentation, emphasizing its adherence to strict payment terms and clarifying its investment strategies amid scrutiny from short-sellers [13][14] Oil Market Outlook - JPMorgan forecasts that Brent crude oil prices may average between $57 and $58 per barrel in 2026 and 2027, with potential declines to around $30 per barrel unless production cuts are implemented [15][16] - The global oil supply is expected to outpace demand growth significantly in the coming years, contributing to a bearish outlook for oil prices [15][16]
香港楼市,杀回来了
吴晓波频道· 2025-11-26 00:30
Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the Hong Kong property market, after seven years of stagnation, is expected to enter a rising cycle lasting 4 to 5 years; UBS sees the Hong Kong residential property market at a turning point, anticipating a similar upward trend over the next 3 to 5 years [2][9]. Market Recovery - The Hong Kong property market is experiencing a resurgence, with significant buyer interest and rapid sales in various projects, such as the Kai Tak project selling 56 units in one day with a subscription rate of 37 times [3][5]. - The private residential price index in Hong Kong rose to 292.5 in September, marking the highest level in 14 months and the fourth consecutive month of increase [6]. - In October, the number of first-hand transactions exceeded 1,700, maintaining over 1,000 transactions for the ninth consecutive month, with luxury properties seeing a notable increase in sales [8]. Factors Behind the Recovery - The Hong Kong government has implemented several policies since early last year, including the elimination of additional stamp duties on residential property transactions, significantly reducing costs for local and mainland buyers [13][17]. - Mortgage rates have decreased, with the one-month HIBOR dropping to around 2.63%, leading to lower mortgage rates compared to earlier in the year [18][21]. - A talent policy has attracted a significant influx of people to Hong Kong, increasing potential homebuyers and driving up rental prices, with the rental index reaching a new high in September [22][24]. - The sustained rise in the Hong Kong stock market and the "asset scarcity" in mainland China have led to increased investment in Hong Kong real estate, with mainland buyers accounting for 24% of total transactions [25][26]. Comparative Analysis - The recovery in the Hong Kong property market differs from the debt crisis seen in mainland cities, as Hong Kong's developers maintain stable balance sheets and low mortgage default rates [29][30]. - The article suggests that while both markets are undergoing adjustments, their paths and underlying issues are distinct, with Hong Kong's market being more resilient due to its unique characteristics [30].
做陶瓷的景德镇,怎么就变成“中国直升机摇篮”了?
吴晓波频道· 2025-11-25 00:29
Core Viewpoint - Resource-dependent cities in southern China, such as Ganzhou and Jingdezhen, are successfully transforming their economies by moving from raw material extraction to high-value manufacturing and innovative industries, showcasing a model for overcoming resource dependency [2][3][11]. Group 1: Transformation of Resource Cities - Ganzhou has shifted from chaotic mining practices to a structured approach in rare earth processing, establishing a complete industrial chain that significantly increases product value [14][15]. - Jingdezhen, known for its ceramics, has evolved into a hub for the aviation industry, leveraging its historical expertise in precision manufacturing to support helicopter and drone production [17][18]. - The transformation of these cities reflects a broader trend in southern China, where resource-rich areas are diversifying their economies and reducing reliance on traditional resource extraction [12][13]. Group 2: Economic Contributions and Projections - By 2026, Jingdezhen's aviation industry is projected to exceed 250 billion yuan in revenue, indicating a substantial economic shift from traditional industries [3]. - In 2024, Ganzhou's rare earth industry is expected to generate nearly 100 billion yuan, with over half of this coming from deep processing, a significant increase from just 10% in 2010 [16]. Group 3: Advantages of Southern Resource Cities - Southern resource cities benefit from abundant water resources, proximity to major economic zones, and a high proportion of private enterprises, which facilitate flexible and innovative economic strategies [12][13]. - The collaboration between national and local entities has been crucial in driving these transformations, ensuring strategic support while maintaining the agility of private sectors [25][28]. Group 4: Policy and Strategic Insights - Effective local policies that focus on precise industry needs rather than broad subsidies have been essential for successful transitions, as seen in Jingdezhen's alignment with aviation industry requirements [26][27]. - The concept of comparative advantage is emphasized, suggesting that cities should focus on their strengths and integrate into larger economic ecosystems to maximize their potential [30][32].
中国入境游客量增超100%,国产GPU第一股启动申购 | 财经日日评
吴晓波频道· 2025-11-25 00:29
Group 1: Tariff Policy Changes - The U.S. Supreme Court is considering whether to invalidate Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy, which could require the government to refund over $88 billion in tariffs if ruled against [2] - The Trump administration is preparing alternative strategies to maintain tariffs, potentially invoking sections 301 and 122 of the Trade Act, which allow unilateral tariff imposition [2][3] - The global response to U.S. tariff threats has led many countries to sign trade agreements with the U.S., committing to purchase American goods and invest domestically [3] Group 2: Low-altitude Economy Growth - The low-altitude economy market in China is projected to reach 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025 and exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2030, indicating strong growth [4] - As of now, 969 companies have registered in the civil unmanned aerial vehicle product information system, with over 478,000 aircraft [4] - Cities like Shenzhen, Chengdu, and Nanchang are developing low-altitude industry clusters, particularly in drone logistics and low-altitude tourism [4][5] Group 3: Nuclear Fusion Research - China's nuclear fusion research has entered a new phase with the launch of the BEST research plan, aiming to conduct plasma experiments by the end of 2027 [6] - The BEST device seeks to achieve a fusion power output of 20 to 200 megawatts, demonstrating energy production exceeding consumption [6][7] - Successful breakthroughs in material durability and plasma stability are critical for the advancement of controlled nuclear fusion technology [7] Group 4: Inbound Tourism Surge - Inbound tourist numbers to China have more than doubled this year, with significant increases in spending from American (up 50%) and French (up 160%) tourists [8] - Policy changes, such as the introduction of a one-click tax refund service, have facilitated this growth in tourism [8] - To sustain this influx, improvements in service quality and payment processes at tourist sites are necessary [9] Group 5: Childcare Leave Policy in Shanghai - Shanghai has implemented a new policy allowing caregivers of elderly patients to take up to 5 days of paid leave, with 7 days for only children [10] - This policy applies to all working individuals in Shanghai, regardless of their or the elderly person's residency status [10][11] - The initiative aims to alleviate the caregiving burden on working individuals as the population ages [11] Group 6: Development of Intelligent Insurance Products - Major Chinese insurance companies are launching specialized insurance products for humanoid robots to address safety concerns in their market applications [12] - The introduction of these insurance products aims to mitigate risks associated with robot malfunctions and accidents [12] - The growing use of household robots raises privacy concerns, necessitating clearer regulations and insurance coverage [13] Group 7: Domestic GPU Company IPO - The domestic GPU company, Moore Threads, has begun its IPO process with a high issuance price, indicating strong market interest [14] - Despite significant revenue growth, the company remains in a loss-making position, with projected revenues of 0.46 billion yuan in 2022 and 4.38 billion yuan in 2024 [14] - The company's products are positioned as alternatives to NVIDIA's offerings, catering to both B2B and B2C markets [14][15] Group 8: Stock Market Overview - The stock market experienced a slight recovery, with major indices closing in the green, driven by interest in AI applications and military sectors [16] - Market sentiment remains cautious, with trading volumes decreasing as the year-end approaches [17] - The overall market is expected to enter a new consolidation phase amid ongoing economic uncertainties [17]
普通人可以向科技巨头学什么? | 今日直播
吴晓波频道· 2025-11-25 00:29
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of technological innovation as a survival strategy in the face of global competition and economic challenges, highlighting the need for individuals and companies to grasp core technologies to transform pressures into opportunities in the tech innovation landscape [2]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "AI Shining in China" event, co-hosted by Wu Xiaobo Channel and Youku, will reveal the results of the "AI Big Research" on December 28, focusing on opportunities for ordinary people amid technological changes [2]. - The event features influential bloggers in the tech innovation field, discussing the rise of the post-2000 generation in entrepreneurship driven by technological equality and AI proliferation [2][3]. Group 2: Key Themes from Speakers - Du Yu, director of the Unknown AI Research Institute, will discuss the entrepreneurial wave among Generation Z, emphasizing the challenges of capital bubbles, ethical dilemmas, and the boundaries of technological inclusivity [3]. - Xiao Xiaopao and Wang Wei will explore personal positioning in the digital world, addressing the implications of AI and large models on decision-making processes [4]. - Wang Yiquan will analyze the opportunities presented by the AI revolution, focusing on sectors like AIGC, terminal intelligence, autonomous driving, and service robots [5]. Group 3: Practical Insights - The event aims to provide attendees with a "survival guide" for the digital world, encouraging a re-evaluation of identity and trust in the age of data [4]. - Participants will learn about the "first principles" approach to navigate the current tech innovation wave and identify personal opportunities within emerging sectors [5].
这八个岗位,未来两年会消失?
吴晓波频道· 2025-11-24 00:20
为何是730天?根据专家的预测,AI在代码生成、测试与部署领域的速度曲线,正以3.4倍的季度增速逼近人类开发极限。这意味着,仅两年 后,人工岗位数量或将迎来首次负增长拐点。 立即点击 ▲ 观看视频 如果我告诉你,24个月后,你所在的岗位很可能就被AI取代,你的第一反应会是什么? 这并非危言耸听。在不久前的硅谷论坛上,几位AI专家达成了一个共识——未来730天(即两年内),8类岗位或将被AI取代。 ◎ 第三,你能否在变化中保留一个安静的自己。 那是哪8类岗位会优先被取代呢?几位专家的观点是,初级开发、销售助理、客服支持、内容编辑、招聘筛选、项目协调、报表制作及基础数据 分析这8个类别。这些岗位具备共同特征:可结构化、可流程化、可预测与可衡量。 此外,几位专家在论坛中还提出几个颇具启发的观点。 ◎ 其一 ,人 类认知进化和AI进化存在"错位"。AI的决策判断往往快速、清晰且结构化,而人类判断多偏模糊、情绪化,依靠经验积累,二者 形成"不对称竞争"。AI的诞生,恰似闯入人类生态系统的外来物种,无天敌制约,人类大脑对AI也没有任何的免疫系统。今天,我们或许将自 身所有认知漏洞和盘托出,交付给这一黑盒系统。 ◎ 其 二 ...
这个厮杀激烈的行业,迎来越来越多的女性CEO
吴晓波频道· 2025-11-24 00:20
Core Viewpoint - The rise of female CEOs in China's retail industry signifies a shift in leadership dynamics, with women increasingly taking on top roles in both multinational and local companies, reflecting new strategies to navigate the challenges of the retail landscape [3][9]. Group 1: Female Leadership in Retail - More women are assuming leadership positions in China's retail sector, marking a significant change from a historically male-dominated landscape [3][9]. - Notable examples include Zhu Xiaojing at Walmart China, Huang Yamei at Ito-Yokado, and Xu Min at Procter & Gamble, all of whom have taken on key roles in recent years [10][11][12]. - The trend indicates a broader acceptance and recognition of female leadership capabilities within the industry [9][10]. Group 2: Career Paths of Female CEOs - Female CEOs in retail often come from diverse backgrounds, with three main pathways to leadership: cross-industry experience, internal promotions, and financial expertise [24][30]. - Zhu Xiaojing, for instance, has a background in consulting and has held various roles in multinational companies before leading Walmart China [25]. - Xu Min's journey at Procter & Gamble showcases a long-term commitment to the company, rising through the ranks from a management trainee [26]. Group 3: Advantages of Female CEOs - Research suggests that female CEOs tend to adopt conservative financial strategies, such as lowering leverage and reducing aggressive mergers and acquisitions, which can enhance company survival rates during economic uncertainty [36]. - Zhu Xiaojing emphasizes the importance of intuition, collaboration, and resilience as key traits for effective leadership in the current retail environment [37]. - The concept of the "glass cliff" suggests that women are often appointed to leadership roles during crises, which can present both challenges and opportunities for demonstrating their capabilities [38]. Group 4: Challenges Faced by Female CEOs - Female leaders like Ni Wenling at Watsons and Yan Xiaolei at Hema are stepping into roles during challenging times, with their companies facing declining revenues and market pressures [38][41]. - Zhu Xiaojing has navigated significant challenges at Walmart, including a reduction in the number of traditional stores while expanding e-commerce and membership models [43]. - Chen Jia at Aldi faces the challenge of implementing a low-price strategy in a highly competitive market, where price wars are common [46].