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全球生育率空前下降,银行下架5年期大额存单 | 财经日日评
吴晓波频道· 2025-06-10 16:40
Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to propose significant projects in the livelihood sector, with a projected increase of over 30% in central budget investment compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [1] - The NDRC aims to enhance social security fairness, improve the balance of basic public services, expand the universality of basic livelihood services, and enhance the accessibility of diverse social services through ten specific recommendations [1][2] - The government's focus on livelihood construction is seen as essential for stimulating consumer confidence and economic growth, particularly for low-income groups [1][2] Group 2 - Seven departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, have issued a plan to accelerate the digital transformation of the food industry, targeting an 80% digital management penetration rate among key food enterprises by 2027 [3] - The current digitalization rates for key processes in the food industry are 63.3% for numerical control and 72.8% for digital design tools, indicating progress but also room for improvement [3][4] - The digital transformation aims to enhance efficiency and safety across the entire food production and supply chain, moving away from small-scale production to more regulated industrial processes [3][4] Group 3 - The United Nations warns of a historic decline in global fertility rates, attributing it to economic factors rather than a lack of desire to have children, with 39% of respondents citing financial constraints as a reason for having fewer children than desired [5][6] - The aging population and declining birth rates are leading to labor shortages and a shift in social consumption structures, necessitating more effective policies to support families and reduce living pressures [6] Group 4 - JD.com is reportedly expanding into the hotel and travel business, offering salaries up to three times higher than industry standards to attract talent, indicating a strategic move into the local lifestyle sector [7][8] - The company has quietly launched travel services on its app, including hotel and ticket bookings, with significant discounts to attract customers [7][8] Group 5 - OpenAI has announced an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $10 billion, a nearly 80% increase from the previous year, driven by its consumer products and API sales [11][12] - The company aims to reach $125 billion in annual revenue by 2029, with a growing number of paid commercial users, indicating a strong commercial outlook despite increasing competition in the AI space [11][12][13] Group 6 - Major banks in China have begun to withdraw five-year large-denomination time deposits, with some banks reducing the maximum term to two years, reflecting pressure on net interest margins [14][15] - The current interest rates for three-year large-denomination time deposits have decreased significantly, indicating a broader trend of declining rates amid a monetary easing cycle [14][15]
为什么“中国式消费”这么像投资?
吴晓波频道· 2025-06-10 16:40
5月以来,上海黄浦区在南京路、豫园、淮海路三大核心商圈多次发放大面额消费券,最低"满500-150",最高"满10000-1000",于是便有了以下 几幕: ◎ 半个月前,烈日炎炎下,上海淮海路的中国黄金店门口排起了百米长队,防晒服、遮阳帽,全副武装的上海人拿着 "黄浦消费券购物攻略",隔 着屏幕算盘珠子蹦到了小巴脸上:"抢的是满3000减600元,很划算,攻略上面说,折下来黄金价格可能就600多元一克。" ◎ 儿童节当天,阿哥阿姐们冒着大雨,拿着靠定闹钟抢到的 "满3000-600""满5000-750"消费券直冲金店;还有一些人这次选择了美妆区域:"叠 加品牌活动和消费券后,折扣力度比免税店还大。" 点击上图▲立即收听 " 让消费敢于 ' 活在当下 ' ,而非永远为未来投保。 " 文 / 巴九灵(微信公众号:吴晓波频道) 开篇之前,先不妨来做道题。 如果此时有人发给你一张 "满3000-600"的消费券,你会怎么花? 写文章的当下,小巴还无法知晓大家的想法,但上海黄浦区的阿哥阿姐给出了他们的答案 ——排队冲黄金首饰。 黄浦区自己说,五一期间, 33家参与活动的重点企业销售额同比增长19.2%,黄金店是最大 ...
未来2—3年,AI会沿着哪几条路改变你的工作和生活?
吴晓波频道· 2025-06-10 16:40
点击上图▲锁定福利 在ChatGPT改写对话方式、DeepSeek重塑技术格局、智能体Manus重构工作形态的 今天,AI浪潮已席卷每一个角落。你是否还在: 面对日新月异的AI进化,不知如何入门? 担心职场被AI取代,却找不到提升路径? 眼馋AI创业红利,但不知从哪里下手? 吴晓波频道6月新课,《AI时代的认知重塑与技能升级》主题实战领教营昨天已经上 线,课程会围绕技术、认知、商业三大维度,详细分析这一波从2022年诞生的AI变 革,不再被网上五花八门的消息裹挟,付费来听真知识。与其焦虑,不如拥抱。 大家可选择以下两种方式加入本期领教营: 1. 免费领取试听课,满意再购买加入 【点击免费领取试听课】 2. 加入超级会员,畅学全年10期领教营。 【点击了解,立即加入】 文 / 巴九灵(微信公众号:吴晓波频道) AI接下来要学会动手做事 现在的AI,比如你熟悉的聊天机器人,本质上是个"超级话痨"。 它能跟你聊诗词歌赋,能写文章,知识很渊博。但让它真正帮你完成点具体工作,比如订个机票、分析 份报表、操作个软件,它就有点抓瞎了——光说不练。 未来的AI,得进化成实干家。它不能光动嘴皮子,还得学会: ◎ 记性好:就像你 ...
5月CPI同比下降0.1%,星巴克下调非咖产品价格 | 财经日日评
吴晓波频道· 2025-06-10 00:49
点击报名 ▲科学出海 中国5月CPI同比下降0.1% 6月9日,国家统计局公布数据显示,2025年5月份,全国居民消费价格指数(CPI)同比下降0.1%,环比下降0.2%。同比数据中,城市持平,农 村下降0.4%;食品价格下降0.4%,非食品价格持平;消费品价格下降0.5%,服务价格上涨0.5%。1—5月平均,全国居民消费价格比上年同期下 降0.1%。 2025年5月份,全国工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)同比下降3.3%,环比下降0.4%;工业生产者购进价格同比下降3.6%,环比下降0.6%。1— 5月平均,工业生产者出厂价格和购进价格比上年同期均下降2.6%。(国家统计局官网) |点评| 中国5月CPI继续保持低位运行,国内需求回暖的速度相对较慢。5月包括汽油、燃油等能源价格走低,与"五一"假期居民出行意愿提 升,机票、旅游价格修复相抵消。除了部分"国补"涉及的行业外,多数消费品行业需求仍有待提振。值得注意的是,由于国内居民收入端增长 有限,购买享受"国补"的家电等产品后,对其他消费品的消费意愿就会有所降低,形成此消彼长的关系。 5月国际原油价格以及国内煤炭价格双双走弱,带动PPI继续走低。国内PPI近两 ...
中美第二轮谈判没大悬念?关键在“稀土牌”怎么打
吴晓波频道· 2025-06-10 00:49
当地时间6月9日下午,中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国伦敦举行。玉渊谭天了解到,当地时间6月10日,中美经贸磋商机制首次会议 将继续进行。 是的,在英国伦敦,中美经贸磋商机制首次会议正在激烈且低调地进行中。 中方代表团面前坐着的,是来自美国的 "三巨头"——财政部长贝森特、商务部长卢特尼克与贸易代表格里尔。他们一起继续日内瓦谈判桌上没有 谈完的议题。 中美第二次会谈,到底要谈什么? 6月9日当天,中国的资本市场嗅觉敏锐地给出了自己的猜测:本周一的 A 股市场,稀土永磁板块大涨 3.45% ,突破前高,并创下 15 年来的历史 新高点位。 这一答案并不难猜测。 中美日内瓦谈判落幕后,双方都在走向贸易争端的第二阶段:从畸高的关税战,转向供应链战。美国卡了中国的芯片,中 国则卡着美国的稀土。 中国调查公司铁合金在线的数据显示,4月稀土磁铁的出口量约为3000吨,同比下降43%,与3月的约5800吨相比踩下急刹车。从出口目的国的减 少率来看,美国的59%和韩国的76%引人注目。 下滑的数据背后,是整个5月弥漫的"全球稀土荒"。 点击按钮▲立即预约 " 这是一个由新能源汽车、机器人、智能手机、电池、军工武器等众多产业叠加 ...
巴菲特对我影响最深的三个忠告
吴晓波频道· 2025-06-10 00:49
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of personal values, mindset, and self-awareness in shaping one's life and career, as illustrated by Warren Buffett's retirement announcement and his lifelong relationship with money [2]. Group 1: Buffett's Advice - The first piece of advice from Buffett is to work and live in a way that aligns with personal desires, suggesting that job satisfaction is crucial for long-term commitment [2][4]. - The second piece of advice highlights the significance of thinking as a precursor to action, advocating for a habit of reading and independent thought to discern rational ideas over time [3][4]. - The third piece of advice stresses the importance of making decisions only in areas of confidence, suggesting that success comes from a few well-considered choices rather than constant decision-making [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - Buffett's investment philosophy revolves around the idea of being prepared to seize opportunities decisively, likening it to using a bucket to catch falling gold rather than a pipe or hands [4]. - The article also reflects on the inherent uncertainty of the world and the complexity of understanding one's own heart, underscoring the need for self-awareness in decision-making [5].
1222万大学生毕业,与2000万直播人才缺口
吴晓波频道· 2025-06-08 15:46
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant employment opportunities in the live streaming industry, highlighting its potential to absorb a large number of graduates and its role as a key driver of economic growth in various cities [2][30]. Employment Landscape - In 2023, approximately 12.22 million university students are expected to graduate, marking an increase of 430,000 from the previous year [3]. - The job market is challenging, with a notable disparity between the number of applicants and available positions, exemplified by a 150:1 application-to-hire ratio at a major company [4]. - The unemployment rates for urban youth aged 16-24 and 25-29 are 15.8% and 7.1%, respectively, indicating a need for job creation [5]. Talent Gaps in Various Industries - Significant talent gaps exist across multiple sectors, with the live streaming industry alone facing a shortfall of approximately 19.42 million professionals [10]. - Other sectors with substantial talent shortages include manufacturing (30 million), home services (20 million), and ICT (20 million) [10]. Growth of the Live Streaming Industry - The live streaming sector has shown remarkable growth, with Douyin e-commerce adding 5.28 million new sales influencers in the past year, a 74% increase [12]. - The total retail sales from live streaming e-commerce reached 4.3 trillion yuan, contributing 80% of the e-commerce sector's growth [13]. - By 2025, the talent gap in the live streaming industry is projected to approach 20 million, indicating a robust demand for skilled professionals [13][16]. Regional Insights - Hangzhou, known as the "live streaming capital," has over 50,000 influencers and more than 5,000 registered live streaming companies, generating over 100,000 jobs [16]. - The ratio of influencers to overall industry workers is approximately 1:20, suggesting a potential shortage of around 1 million influencers by 2025 [17]. Policy Support and Economic Impact - Major cities like Shenzhen and Shanghai are actively promoting the live streaming economy, with plans to cultivate thousands of influencers and achieve significant retail sales targets [24][25]. - The economic impact of successful influencers is substantial, with one influencer's company generating over 300 billion yuan in sales and contributing significantly to local tax revenues [30]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The live streaming market is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate of 18% from 2024 to 2026, despite a potential slowdown compared to previous years [40]. - The article notes a shift in focus from high-tier cities to lower-tier cities, where the live streaming industry is beginning to flourish [36][37].
吴晓波对话廖信嘉:时间的复利
吴晓波频道· 2025-06-08 15:46
对话 / 吴晓波 × 廖信嘉 整理 / 巴九灵(微信公众号:吴晓波频道) 2025年中国奢侈品市场规模预计突破 8000亿元 人民币,占据全球 25%消费份额。然而繁荣背后暗藏结构性困境:贝恩报告显示,本土品牌在高 端市场占比不足2%,中国消费者对文化叙事溢价接受度较欧美市场低27个百分点。 当 Z世代 将奢侈品购物袋替换为环保布袋、高净值人群资产配置转向硬通货时,行业正经历从炫耀性消费到精神共鸣的价值跃迁。 作为这一变革的亲历者与推动者,廖信嘉的职业生涯恰是奢侈品行业的镜鉴。 2001年,他作为瑞士腕表品牌宝珀 BLANCPAIN 进驻中国市场的 001号员工,在王府井亨得利钟表店的角落支起第一个展柜。彼时 大多经销商 只认 "镶钻的满天星",而宝珀坚持只做机械表的执念则显得格格不 入。 二十五年间,他从在哈尔滨零下三十度街头拓客的销售代表,成长为执掌品牌中国命脉的操盘手,亲历了奢侈品行业从 "浮华时代"到"静奢审 美"的全过程,也将这个创立于1735年的瑞士腕表品牌,从 鲜为人知 的 "小众品牌"发展为圈内有口皆碑的 高级制表代表品牌 "天地良心珀"。 其主导的文化营销策略 ——以吴晓波、梁文道、 冯远征 ...
2025年的中美博弈将会如何影响中国企业?
吴晓波频道· 2025-06-07 16:45
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of Sino-U.S. relations as a decisive factor for China's economic development, highlighting the historical context and future trends of the ongoing geopolitical rivalry [1][4]. Group 1: Sino-U.S. Relations - The recent phone call between the leaders of China and the U.S. conveyed positive signals, with both sides recognizing the outcomes of the Geneva economic talks and agreeing to continue implementing the consensus [2][3]. - Despite the temporary agreement, the U.S. has quickly resumed its confrontational stance in technology and education sectors, indicating that the trade conflict may not be resolved easily [5][6]. - The structural contradictions in the U.S. economy, particularly the decline of domestic manufacturing and the rise of multinational corporations, have fueled the trade tensions, which are seen as a long-term geopolitical necessity rather than purely ideological [7][8]. Group 2: Future Trends and Strategies - The ongoing trade war is evolving into a significant geopolitical struggle that will reshape global industrial patterns, presenting both challenges and opportunities for businesses [16][20]. - Companies are encouraged to proactively adapt by refining their products and technologies to maintain competitiveness and exploring diversified market strategies to mitigate risks [17][18]. - Understanding the logic and future direction of Sino-U.S. relations will be crucial for businesses to navigate the complexities of the global market and identify new growth opportunities [15][19]. Group 3: Educational Initiatives - The "2025 Wu Xiaobo Lecture" series aims to help entrepreneurs understand the essence of current conflicts and future trends in Sino-U.S. relations, featuring insights from experts like Chen Gong [22][23]. - The lectures will cover historical contexts and the underlying logic of Sino-U.S. relations, providing a comprehensive view of the ongoing geopolitical dynamics [24][25].
7张热门专业变迁图,给今年的1335万高考生
吴晓波频道· 2025-06-07 16:45
Core Viewpoint - The changes in college majors reflect a subtle shift in the life trajectories of 13.35 million examinees, indicating a transformation in higher education and job market demands [1][49]. Group 1: Examination Trends - The number of candidates for this year's college entrance examination decreased by 70,000 compared to last year, marking the first decline in a decade [3]. - The new "3+1+2" examination model, which does not differentiate between arts and sciences, has been adopted by eight provinces, changing the admission rules from "institution priority" to "major group locking" [4]. Group 2: Major Evolution - The emergence of new majors and the phasing out of traditional ones are redefining the "windfall" in higher education. The Ministry of Education announced 29 new undergraduate majors, including low-altitude technology, artificial intelligence education, and carbon neutrality science [5]. - Many top-tier universities are discontinuing traditional majors such as tourism management and marketing, indicating a shift in educational focus [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Over 90% of examinees are willing to use college entrance examination volunteer filling services, with the paid market expected to reach 1.09 billion yuan by 2025 [6]. - Major tech companies like Baidu and Tencent are launching "AI volunteer filling" tools, competing with traditional high-cost consulting services [6][7]. Group 4: Popular Majors and Employment Trends - An analysis of popular majors from 2007, 2015, and 2023 shows that there are no consistently popular "evergreen" majors, with shifts reflecting societal needs [10]. - By 2025, universities like Peking University and Wuhan University are expanding enrollment in fields such as information science and artificial intelligence, aligning with industry demands [15]. Group 5: Interdisciplinary Studies - The concept of interdisciplinary studies is gaining traction, with 239 universities offering 723 interdisciplinary programs, primarily in artificial intelligence and related fields [30]. - The focus on interdisciplinary studies is seen as a response to the evolving job market and the emergence of new productive forces [34]. Group 6: Salary and Employment Correlation - There is a notable disconnect between popular majors and high-paying jobs, as the correlation between industry growth and salary increases varies significantly [35][41]. - The computer industry, for example, has seen a rise in salary growth, which has influenced the popularity of related majors, but this does not guarantee future high salaries [44][45].